Good historical precedents for upset against Michigan

[eastbaycat99]

What a difference a win over Rutgers has given my mental state! Anyway, since I am back from the brink of despair, in two weeks it will be 10 years since the Cats, who had just snapped a five game losing streak that included the infamous Army game by winning its first B1G win over a bottom dwelling Indiana, went to Lincoln and upset the top 10 ranked Huskers.
My rational expectations are pretty low, but my emotional expectations make me look forward to Saturday’s game. As an added coincidental foreshadowing is that like this year’s team, the 2011 team went 3 deep at QB, playing Persa, Colter and Sieman. Maybe HJ will come off the bench for a series where Hilinski gets dinged up a little and hits a long pass like Chris Hamdorf did in 1995 at the Big House. A fan can dream.

 

[Hungry Jack]

I think we need a moose sighting this week. Maybe two.

 

[mickbula]

I feel better vs any of our other opponents this season. Mich is best opponent left on schedule. All others are beatable- especially iowa if our d continues to improve. H.eyes o is almost worst in BIG. Not looking forward to wverines sadly. Might get ugly. If we win, start booking bowl game hotel rooms though.

 

[corbi2961]

I feel better vs any of our other opponents this season. Mich is best opponent left on schedule. All others are beatable- especially iowa if our d continues to improve. H.eyes o is almost worst in BIG. Not looking forward to wverines sadly. Might get ugly. If we win, start booking bowl game hotel rooms though.

michgan is better than they’ve been recently but they are not back to where they were. This is a Michigan team that beat Rutgers by just 7 points. It’s a tough game on the road that is extremely challenging for us to win but I would not be shocked if we pull off the upset and would be shocked if we got blown out. The Defensive improvements we saw against Rutgers were not a mirage, they were a reflection of a complete overhaul that took place during the bye week.

 

[mickbula]

michgan is better than they’ve been recently but they are not back to where they were. This is a Michigan team that beat Rutgers by just 7 points. It’s a tough game on the road that is extremely challenging for us to win but I would not be shocked if we pull off the upset and would be shocked if we got blown out. The Defensive improvements we saw against Rutgers were not a mirage, they were a reflection of a complete overhaul that took place during the bye week.

I hope Mich game is a lot like the one about a decade or so ago that we won there with RichRod as their coach. Had to watch it from work that day in break room- but I think cj was our qb? Might be mistaken though?? I am just hoping to have a lot to root for sat.

 

[phatcat_rivals223240]

What a difference a win over Rutgers has given my mental state! Anyway, since I am back from the brink of despair, in two weeks it will be 10 years since the Cats, who had just snapped a five game losing streak that included the infamous Army game by winning its first B1G win over a bottom dwelling Indiana, went to Lincoln and upset the top 10 ranked Huskers.
My rational expectations are pretty low, but my emotional expectations make me look forward to Saturday’s game. As an added coincidental foreshadowing is that like this year’s team, the 2011 team went 3 deep at QB, playing Persa, Colter and Sieman. Maybe HJ will come off the bench for a series where Hilinski gets dinged up a little and hits a long pass like Chris Hamdorf did in 1995 at the Big House. A fan can dream.

I think the coaching staff lost confidence in Hunter, so if he plays, will probably just hamdorf the ball to Hull, Clair et al.

Gotta get a pun in there when you can.

 

[Deeringfish]

I think the coaching staff lost confidence in Hunter, so if he plays, will probably just hamdorf the ball to Hull, Clair et al.

Gotta get a pun in there when you can.

You will never be Uber.

 

[Deeringfish]

I feel better vs any of our other opponents this season. Mich is best opponent left on schedule. All others are beatable- especially iowa if our d continues to improve. H.eyes o is almost worst in BIG. Not looking forward to wverines sadly. Might get ugly. If we win, start booking bowl game hotel rooms though.

I think this is true and for that reason, I will not despair if we lose this one but:

PLEASE FITZ! IF IT GOES TO OVERTIME DON'T CHOOSE THE STUDENT SECTION ENDZONE.

 

[CatManTrue]

This is a bittersweet one for me as my brother was a Michigan fan for some unknown reason before he passed away. I converted him into a NU fan but he always pulled for the Wolverines even though he never stepped foot in Ann Arbor as far as I knew.

So if we pull off the upset - as I expect -I won’t be able to jab him over it like the good old days.

But yea. Vegas is showing us no respect. This team just got a lot of pride back and some swagger. Muck Fichigan.

 

[Figrating]

To remain on the brink of despair after the way this season has gone shows great balance and determination.

I am thankful NU got the hell off the floor and decided to play the rest of the season. All I need is for them to be competitive - to be IN all their games.

Can they stay in the game against UM? If the O can rise another level, yes.

 

[PURPLE Book Cat]

I hope that Michigan looks forward to the MSU game on 10/30. The buzz in that state about the impending UM-MSU matchup is as loud as it gets.

 

[phatcat_rivals223240]

I hope that Michigan looks forward to the MSU game on 10/30. The buzz in that state about the impending UM-MSU matchup is as loud as it gets.

"HE HAS TROUBLE WITH THE SNAP!"

 

[mickbula]

I hope that Michigan looks forward to the MSU game on 10/30. The buzz in that state about the impending UM-MSU matchup is as loud as it gets.

Let's hope we are their trap game! They still also have to play psu and osu too right? As 21 pt dogs and a 50 pt loss to Neb, maybe they will dismiss us as charlatans?? Would be epic- highly unlikely similar to stan vs usc upset, but highly desirable as cats' fans

 

[7th Cir. Cat]

This is a CLASSIC trap game for the Wolverines. ESPN Game Day will likely be in East Lansing if both teams win next week. And I'm sure the players on both sides are thinking about what it would be like to play their intra-state rival when both teams are undefeated and in the top 10 and maybe even top 5.

 

[NUcats92]

I’m looking forward to this game hopefully we play our little purple hearts out and make it a game Especially for it to be a nationally televised game just want us to show fight even if we can’t come up victorious, earlier in the season I made a wager if we we’re to beat Michigan I would get a Willie cat tattoo …. Come on cats make me get that Ink!

 

[phatcat_rivals223240]

I’m looking forward to this game hopefully we play our little purple hearts out and make it a game Especially for it to be a nationally televised game just want us to show fight even if we can’t come up victorious, earlier in the season I made a wager if we we’re to beat Michigan I would get a Willie cat tattoo …. Come on cats make me get that Ink!

I think I would be willing to get a TURK tattoo if they beat MichiGag

 

[Deeringfish]

I think I would be willing to get a TURK tattoo if they beat MichiGag

Don't do it!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Deeringfish]

This is a CLASSIC trap game for the Wolverines. ESPN Game Day will likely be in East Lansing if both teams win next week. And I'm sure the players on both sides are thinking about what it would be like to play their intra-state rival when both teams are undefeated and in the top 10 and maybe even top 5.

You could be right. We are a speck on their wall right now. And...College Football.

Crazy things happen in College football. Harbaugh is such a flighty personality, I could see him blowing this game off.

 

[corbi2961]

I think I would be willing to get a TURK tattoo if they beat MichiGag

What does that look like? Is it a flat line to represent the flat earth? Or maybe it’s just the word “Hoax”?

 

[GECat2]

I truly believe that there is a 50% chance we win this game. If we can stop their running game we will have a chance.

 

[Jonny2TheP]

michgan is better than they’ve been recently but they are not back to where they were. This is a Michigan team that beat Rutgers by just 7 points. It’s a tough game on the road that is extremely challenging for us to win but I would not be shocked if we pull off the upset and would be shocked if we got blown out. The Defensive improvements we saw against Rutgers were not a mirage, they were a reflection of a complete overhaul that took place during the bye week.

I, like many others around here, feel much better today about the Cats than I did four days ago. That performance on Saturday, while against Rutgers, was much more in line with good Fitz teams that we've seen in the past. Nothing flashy, but just good solid defense and doing enough on offense to control the game and get a W. Besides Michigan being a WAY better team than Rutgers, there are two main questions I have that I worry about as we head into Saturday's game:

1) Can our defensive line play as well against the Michigan offensive line as they did against Rutgers? The Rutgers o-line is pretty terrible, so while our defensive line looked significantly better than they have all year, was that a product of Rutgers being awful up front or our defensive line improving? I'm hoping it's a combination of both and that our defensive line gained some confidence in that one and it carries over against a better offensive line this week.

2) Can we play well on the road? Playing well on the road is something Fitz teams have typically been strong at. We've pulled off plenty of road upsets over the years. But this team has played eight quarters of road football and played well in only one of them (the third quarter at Duke). I worry that if we get off to a slow start, any confidence we gained from the Rutgers game will quickly fly out the window.

We'll see what happens on Saturday, but these are my two primary concerns heading into the game.

 

[TheC]

This is a CLASSIC trap game for the Wolverines. ESPN Game Day will likely be in East Lansing if both teams win next week. And I'm sure the players on both sides are thinking about what it would be like to play their intra-state rival when both teams are undefeated and in the top 10 and maybe even top 5.

Is the attention on MSU-UM or is it on OSU-PSU? Could be 4 Top10 teams from the BIG facing each other next weekend...... unless we have something to do with it.

 

[7th Cir. Cat]

Is the attention on MSU-UM or is it on OSU-PSU? Could be 4 Top10 teams from the BIG facing each other next weekend...... unless we have something to do with it.

OSU and PSU both have a loss and are flying under the radar a little bit. If MSU and UM are both undefeated next week, that game will be the biggest regular season game not involving OSU in a looooong time. Let's hope the game loses some of it's luster after this saturday.

 

[MiamiWolv]

michgan is better than they’ve been recently but they are not back to where they were. This is a Michigan team that beat Rutgers by just 7 points. It’s a tough game on the road that is extremely challenging for us to win but I would not be shocked if we pull off the upset and would be shocked if we got blown out. The Defensive improvements we saw against Rutgers were not a mirage, they were a reflection of a complete overhaul that took place during the bye week.

I'd be surprised if Northwestern hangs in.

The teams that can slow Michigan are good against the run and by the numbers this is the worst NW run defense in several years under Fitzgerald. Rutgers has a terrible offense so your defensive improvements are likely in large part attributable to the opponent.

Not sure if Michigan covers 24.5 because this will be a low possession game but based on how teams such as Duke and Nebraska have carved up Northwestern on the ground, I'd be surprised if Northwestern is within striking distance (say two possessions) after midway through the third.

For NW to win, it will have to do something that no opponent has done yet, force UM to turn it over and allow short fields. The problem is that UM will just keep the ball on the ground unless Northwestern stops it and NW's track record this year (5.4 YPC) suggests that is unlikely to happen.

 

[EvanstonCat]

OSU and PSU both have a loss and are flying under the radar a little bit. If MSU and UM are both undefeated next week, that game will be the biggest regular season game not involving OSU in a looooong time. Let's hope the game loses some of it's luster after this saturday.

Well, it'd be the biggest game since Iowa played PSU a few weeks ago anyways.

 

[TheC]

I'd be surprised if Northwestern hangs in.

The teams that can slow Michigan are good against the run and by the numbers this is the worst NW run defense in several years under Fitzgerald. Rutgers has a terrible offense so your defensive improvements are likely in large part attributable to the opponent.

Not sure if Michigan covers 24.5 because this will be a low possession game but based on how teams such as Duke and Nebraska have carved up Northwestern on the ground, I'd be surprised if Northwestern is within striking distance (say two possessions) after midway through the third.

For NW to win, it will have to do something that no opponent has done yet, force UM to turn it over and allow short fields. The problem is that UM will just keep the ball on the ground unless Northwestern stops it and NW's track record this year (5.4 YPC) suggests that is unlikely to happen.

While I don't disagree with your general overall assessment of how the game will go, I would caution you to take Northwestern's ugly run defense numbers with a grain of salt. Those numbers are warped by a surprisingly large number of big chunk plays that were either due to dumb scheme or a player out of position. It had become a running joke on here whether we could hold a team to under 50 yards on their first play from scrimmage. Against Nebraska, those kind of plays kept happening.

Something changed during the bye week (and maybe someday we'll learn the true story), but the defense came out against Rutgers and looked much more sound. All the gaps were filled and guys weren't terribly out of position. As a result, Rutgers' decent running back was held in check all day. And that Rutgers offense isn't a total waste. They moved the ball pretty well against you guys in the second half. They just couldn't punch it in the endzone.

Granted, Michigan is much more talented than Rutgers, so I don't expect they will have too much trouble with us. But this game won't be as easy as it might have been three weeks ago.

 

[Jonny2TheP]

I'd be surprised if Northwestern hangs in.

The teams that can slow Michigan are good against the run and by the numbers this is the worst NW run defense in several years under Fitzgerald. Rutgers has a terrible offense so your defensive improvements are likely in large part attributable to the opponent.

Not sure if Michigan covers 24.5 because this will be a low possession game but based on how teams such as Duke and Nebraska have carved up Northwestern on the ground, I'd be surprised if Northwestern is within striking distance (say two possessions) after midway through the third.

For NW to win, it will have to do something that no opponent has done yet, force UM to turn it over and allow short fields. The problem is that UM will just keep the ball on the ground unless Northwestern stops it and NW's track record this year (5.4 YPC) suggests that is unlikely to happen.

I'll echo what @TheC said. We may come out and not be able to stop Michigan, but the bye week made a huge difference as we went back to playing a much more simple scheme similar to what we ran last year and years prior. The difference was drastic. And yes, it was only Rutgers, but it was clear that there was a big difference right away. Guys were in position and there weren't huge holes/guys wide open all over the place like we saw continuously in the first five games of the year. There's a good amount of chatter that Fitz got more involved in the off week and forced our new DC to simplify things and play a scheme that the players are a lot more comfortable and familiar with.

This is in no way saying that NU is going to win this game, that would really surprise me. But what we saw from the NU defense on Saturday looked a lot like what we have seen in past years- a disciplined defense that was in position and didn't allow big chunk plays. And while Michigan is a good team (not sure they are actually a top ten team, but they are good), it's not like the Michigan offense is a juggernaut. Should be an interesting game- a game that Michigan very likely wins, but I think will be closer (within 14 points) that most people expect.

 

[corbi2961]

I'd be surprised if Northwestern hangs in.

The teams that can slow Michigan are good against the run and by the numbers this is the worst NW run defense in several years under Fitzgerald. Rutgers has a terrible offense so your defensive improvements are likely in large part attributable to the opponent.

Not sure if Michigan covers 24.5 because this will be a low possession game but based on how teams such as Duke and Nebraska have carved up Northwestern on the ground, I'd be surprised if Northwestern is within striking distance (say two possessions) after midway through the third.

For NW to win, it will have to do something that no opponent has done yet, force UM to turn it over and allow short fields. The problem is that UM will just keep the ball on the ground unless Northwestern stops it and NW's track record this year (5.4 YPC) suggests that is unlikely to happen.

throw the numbers out the window for this one. Our first five games were defensive debacles driven by a misguided change in our defense philosophy implemented by the new DC. During the bye week We switched back to our traditional Hankiwitz defense, which is a base 4-3 with cover 4 on the back end. The difference was night and day not just in results but also in how free flowing and loose our players looked in a defense they know well and can play comfortably without having to think. Michigan will likely win the game but it will be a closer game and you won’t win the game by trying to run the ball down our throats. That won’t work.

 

[7th Cir. Cat]

throw the numbers out the window for this one. Our first five games were defensive debacles driven by a misguided change in our defense philosophy implemented by the new DC. During the bye week We switched back to our traditional Hankiwitz defense, which is a base 4-3 with cover 4 on the back end. The difference was night and day not just in results but also in how free flowing and loose our players looked in a defense they know well and can play comfortably without having to think. Michigan will likely win the game but it will be a closer game and you won’t win the game by trying to run the ball down our throats. That won’t work.

Agreed 100%. Michigan will likely win, but I would actually be REALLY surprised if they cover and win by 25.

 

[hdhntr1]

I'd be surprised if Northwestern hangs in.

The teams that can slow Michigan are good against the run and by the numbers this is the worst NW run defense in several years under Fitzgerald. Rutgers has a terrible offense so your defensive improvements are likely in large part attributable to the opponent.

Not sure if Michigan covers 24.5 because this will be a low possession game but based on how teams such as Duke and Nebraska have carved up Northwestern on the ground, I'd be surprised if Northwestern is within striking distance (say two possessions) after midway through the third.

For NW to win, it will have to do something that no opponent has done yet, force UM to turn it over and allow short fields. The problem is that UM will just keep the ball on the ground unless Northwestern stops it and NW's track record this year (5.4 YPC) suggests that is unlikely to happen.

Hopefully we are seeing a continuation of the defensive improvement after the bye

 

[MiamiWolv]

While I don't disagree with your general overall assessment of how the game will go, I would caution you to take Northwestern's ugly run defense numbers with a grain of salt. Those numbers are warped by a surprisingly large number of big chunk plays that were either due to dumb scheme or a player out of position. It had become a running joke on here whether we could hold a team to under 50 yards on their first play from scrimmage. Against Nebraska, those kind of plays kept happening.

Something changed during the bye week (and maybe someday we'll learn the true story), but the defense came out against Rutgers and looked much more sound. All the gaps were filled and guys weren't terribly out of position. As a result, Rutgers' decent running back was held in check all day. And that Rutgers offense isn't a total waste. They moved the ball pretty well against you guys in the second half. They just couldn't punch it in the endzone.

Granted, Michigan is much more talented than Rutgers, so I don't expect they will have too much trouble with us. But this game won't be as easy as it might have been three weeks ago.

I don’t disagree with your general premise and could see NW hanging around for a half or midway through the third.

After seeing NW earlier in the year, I’d have thought it would be a total runaway but they appear to be getting better on defense (no surprise).

 

[Rodenthater]

we're going to get trucked!!!

 

[CatManTrue]

we're going to get trucked!!!

Fake news.