Happy KenPom day!

[CappyNU]

Initial rankings puts the 'Cats at #48, 10th in the conference. 18-12 record, 9-11 in conference. Based on game-by-game predictions, he has us starting 3-7 in conference before finishing 6-4.

#2 Michigan - #3 O, #1 D
#5 Illinois - #11 O, #2 D
#6 Purdue - #2 O, #18 D
#8 OSU - #8 O, #20 D

#18 Maryland - #20 O, #15 D
#22 MSU - #43 O, #11 D
#23 Iowa - #10 O, #58 D
#31 IU - #42 O, #23 D

#44 Wisconsin - #82 O, #16 D
#48 'Cats - #58 O, #41 D

#67 Rutgers - #88 O, #43 D
#70 PSU - #64 O, #75 D
#81 Nebraska - #89 O, #73 D

#120 Minnesota - #143 O, #104 D

 

[bringbacktherantboard]

That should be good enough for the NIT.

 

[NJCat]

#120 Minnesota

Poor Ben Johnson.......

 

[CappyNU]

I think Iowa is way too high here, there's no way they reload on offense to be #10 after losing Garza, Weiskamp and Fredrick.

Just for fun (or not), here's how Kenpom preseason predictions have turned out in the end for the 'Cats:
2011-12: Pre #41, final #72 (NIT)
2012-13: Pre #88, final #132
2013-14: Pre #90. final #134
2014-15: Pre #79, final #122
2015-16: Pre #71, final #68
2016-17: Pre #61, final #38 (NCAA)
2017-18: Pre #18, final #85
2018-19: Pre #57, final #74
2019-20: Pre #86, final #132
2020-21: Pre #70, final #79

So in general we're overrated to start most years.

 

[Sec_112]

I know it's based on math, but I'm surprised Rutgers is rated so much lower than NU.

I'm telling ya: I think Rutgers, Iowa, Wisconsin and the Cats are going to dook it out. I don't think it will take much for NU to get its act together and beat out that bunch.

And if there's some crazy consistency, maybe NU pops up one notch if Maryland and/or IU drop to that group.

 

[combes]

Iowa too high. Rutgers too low.

 

[CappyNU]

I know it's based on math, but I'm surprised Rutgers is rated so much lower than NU.

I'm telling ya: I think Rutgers, Iowa, Wisconsin and the Cats are going to dook it out. I don't think it will take much for NU to get its act together and beat out that bunch.

And if there's some crazy consistency, maybe NU pops up one notch if Maryland and/or IU drop to that group.

Bart Torvik's data share your views. Could be some real ugly games between the 'Cats, Rutgers and Wisconsin:

#5 Illinois - #8 O, #10 D
#7 Michigan - #15 O, #2 D
#8 Purdue - #11 O, #8 D
#11 OSU - #3 O, #53 D

#22 Maryland - #33 O, #24 D
#28 MSU - #47 O, #29 D
#30 IU - #34 O, #39 D

#49 'Cats - #95 O, #34 D
#54 Wisconsin - #158 O, #11 D
#59 Rutgers - #128 O, #38 D
#61 Iowa - #38 O, #103 D
#66 Nebraska - #104 O, #56 D
#80 PSU - #81 O, #79 D

#148 Minnesota - #205 O, #122 D

 

[macarthur31]

Bart Torvik B1G T-Rank

FWIW, fellow advanced analytics dude Bart Torvik has the 'Cats at 49, which is very close to where kenpom has 'em.


Interesting to note that in terms of kenpom's Adjusted Efficiency Margin (Adjusted EM) which is defined as "the number of points the team would be expected to outscore the average D-I team over 100 possessions":

'21 Cats AdjEM: +10.97

Power 5 teams that lost play-in game (11th seed)
'21 Michigan State (overall 42nd seed) AdjEM: +12.97
'19 Saint John's (overall 47th seed) AdjEM: +10.92
'18 Arizona State (overall 43rd seed) AdjEM: +14.13
'17 Providence (overall 42nd seed) AdjEm: +12.43

'22 Cats Projected AdjEM: +15.17

 

[NJCat]

Initial rankings puts the 'Cats at #48, 10th in the conference. 18-12 record, 9-11 in conference. Based on game-by-game predictions, he has us starting 3-7 in conference before finishing 6-4.

#2 Michigan - #3 O, #1 D
#5 Illinois - #11 O, #2 D
#6 Purdue - #2 O, #18 D
#8 OSU - #8 O, #20 D

#18 Maryland - #20 O, #15 D
#22 MSU - #43 O, #11 D
#23 Iowa - #10 O, #58 D
#31 IU - #42 O, #23 D

#44 Wisconsin - #82 O, #16 D
#48 'Cats - #58 O, #41 D

#67 Rutgers - #88 O, #43 D
#70 PSU - #64 O, #75 D
#81 Nebraska - #89 O, #73 D

#120 Minnesota - #143 O, #104 D

NU gets Minny twice, along with UNL, MD, PSU, UICU, PU and MSU. Need to win 5 out of 6 against Minny, PSU and UNL......they will probably only get 1 out of 8 against UICU, MD, PU and MSU. Then find 2 wins against @OSU, @MI, @Iowa, Indy and Wisky......

 

[hoosboot]

I think Iowa is way too high here, there's no way they reload on offense to be #10 after losing Garza, Weiskamp and Fredrick.

Just for fun (or not), here's how Kenpom preseason predictions have turned out in the end for the 'Cats:
2011-12: Pre #41, final #72 (NIT)
2012-13: Pre #88, final #132
2013-14: Pre #90. final #134
2014-15: Pre #79, final #122
2015-16: Pre #71, final #68
2016-17: Pre #61, final #38 (NCAA)
2017-18: Pre #18, final #85
2018-19: Pre #57, final #74
2019-20: Pre #86, final #132
2020-21: Pre #70, final #79

So in general we're overrated to start most years.

Gotta hope that Pom is done overranking the Cats and goes back to that narrow 2015-2017 window that bucked the trend. Otherwise, it's kind of grim how NU doesn't even live up to extremely low expectations over the last ten years.

 

[SDakaGordie]

Going to classes and doing homework is a *****. Our kids have to take it much more seriously, on average, and I think that plays a role that is not likely picked up by algorithms.

 

[Kat burglar]

If we were consistently in the top 50 of KenPom and in the top 10 of B1G, I would consider that a successful program.

 

[NREPP Fraud]

Wildcat team up to 40th in kenpom today