Harry Giles
- Thread starter GabeM1234
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I think Giles is more mental than physical.
I'm afraid we will need a bit more production from our bigs to make a run, Jefferson cannot do it alone.
Harry has looked good working in the post on offense. He's looked bad on defense anywhere but within 5 feet of the basket. Seems like K could use him in a zone look then go to man with the small lineup.
I think its probably some of each. Fear he will re-injure himself and lack of his former abilities due to injury. Giles had to reinvent the wheel so to speak.
I've been a bit surprised at how unskilled he is, which I don't think is directly attributable to the injuries, but maybe indirectly if he wasn't able to practice 2 of the last 3 years.
My wife and I were talking about him tonight. Only he and the staff really know what's holding him back. If it's physical in terms of decreased athleticism, I think he should enter the draft, get the guaranteed what, $4M or so? But if it's rust or mental, if I were his parents I'd consider advising him to come back, if everyone involved was confident that Harry could realistically be a top 10 pick next year. The difference would be $15M or so which is a pretty big prize if his problems are fixable at Duke, especially because - let's be honest - there's a decent chance he never gets a 2nd NBA contract.
My wife and I were talking about him tonight. Only he and the staff really know what's holding him back. If it's physical in terms of decreased athleticism, I think he should enter the draft, get the guaranteed what, $4M or so? But if it's rust or mental, if I were his parents I'd consider advising him to come back, if everyone involved was confident that Harry could realistically be a top 10 pick next year. The difference would be $15M or so which is a pretty big prize if his problems are fixable at Duke, especially because - let's be honest - there's a decent chance he never gets a 2nd NBA contract.
You answered you're own quandary up top. He hasn't practiced basketball for the majority of three years. The fact that he is at all D1 capable shows where he could have been.
His reset button has been pressed. Had he stayed on his projected course without fail or injury then Duke would probably have one of the more dominant players in basketball. Oh well.
If Giles can just get back to a fraction of what he was before the injuries, He will earn himself a second NBA contract. I live just outside of Winston Salem and was able to keep tabs with Giles and he is the real deal. I honestly think that once you sustain the injuries that he had you play with a mental block that will not let you go all out. Only time and confidence in the knees will move that mental block. Right now he is just a shell of what he could become if his knees will hold out.
Harry grabbed a few key late game rebounds against Wake & ND in a violent manner. He's definitely got the skills, it has to be the mental part.
He's ok pushing up (jumping vertically). That brace and his knee don't look 100% going side to side. He also doesn't seem too quick to rotate down on D. If you watch just him on replays, he looks before he recovers, which is already too late. You have to start leaning before you see the cutter. All of these things will improve dramatically over the next few years. The biggest thing will be losing that brace next year. If he gets assurances that he'll be picked late first round, he should take the money and work on his game as a pro. It has worked out for injured bigs in the past. I'm praying it works out for Harry. He seems like such a good guy.
Giles knew it was a long road back. Look at it this way....it would have been just as easy for him to not play this season and go into the draft this June. That's not his personality, though.
I know many here continue trying to leverage in their minds why he should come back....and I don't blame you. But the bottom line is that everything he can do at Duke he can do in on-the-job training in the NBA.
I'd be surprised if Harry and his family even have a discussion about coming back to Duke. It just doesn't seem like it's in his best interest to do so....as strange as that sounds for a kid averaging five points and four rebounds per game.
I know many here continue trying to leverage in their minds why he should come back....and I don't blame you. But the bottom line is that everything he can do at Duke he can do in on-the-job training in the NBA.
I'd be surprised if Harry and his family even have a discussion about coming back to Duke. It just doesn't seem like it's in his best interest to do so....as strange as that sounds for a kid averaging five points and four rebounds per game.
Let me just ask this what if he goes in the draft and his team doesn't give him the time he needs. They push him and shoot him to the D-league and gets hurt there his first year they drop him after rookie contract vs stay at Duke prove yourself as a top 5 get big bucks and gained that confidence without getting more money on the line. I honestly see different scenarios and I hope the kid NEVER ever sprains an ankle again. I know one thing I'd hate to be the one making the decision
Pisgah, I am of the belief you can get hurt walking across the street. If he is going to get hurt, he is going to get hurt. I just do not see at this point how an NBA teams can draft him off potential. The last good season he had was like 3 years ago. The NBA drafting on potential is hurting the kids who leave. They may play for 2 or 3 seasons and have a little money, but they are usually broke in 5 years. If he were my kid and I had any say, he would stay at Duke, get an education, and play basketball but I have no say in this. HAHA.
He can prove himself in the d-league or NBA, too....and get paid while doing so. You're looking at this as a Duke fan with YOUR best interest in mind, not his. Put yourself in his shoes at 19 years old....two major knee surgeries and an additional procedure before your college career even begins. Yet, you're going to be a first-round pick, get guaranteed money, endorsements, and train while getting paid.
I see what you're saying, but in basic life we take for granted those chances we take every day. Getting in a car. Walking across the street. When you call home to tell your wife you'll be home in 10 minutes, you probably don't preface it by saying, "that is, if I don't get hit by a bus on the way home." We all assume we're getting home. Giles still has some serious physical and mental hurdles to overcome before he can ever be really good again. I don't think anyone is arguing that. When I was in high school I was involved in a pretty serious car accident. As weird as it may sound to some of you....it was a good year before I was totally comfortable again in a vehicle, and that's whether it was me or someone else driving. I was scared....and it probably made me a worse driver and put me in danger at times. Not the great analogy, I know, but something to try and draw a parallel.
It wasn't quite three years ago....in fact, under two years ago he was dominating the spring and summer AAU circuits and drawing comparisons to Kevin Garnett and Chris Webber.
Lastly, it's easy for you to sit at a keyboard and say that's how you would advise your kid. If either of my kids were afforded the opportunity Harry has at 19 (with his past injury issues), where potentially $4 million sits on a table for them while while they train and try to perfect their craft, I'd feel I'm a terrible parent if I tell to stay in school. School isn't going anywhere for Harry. He can do that again. The same can't be said for the $4 million.
I'm not disappointed in Giles. I'm disappointed he hasn't been able to play at the peak of his game. And, I'm disappointed for him. His career is very iffy, imo. I hope he gets to full health but tall guys with knee issues can have a lot of trouble coming back.
Not if he falls to the 2nd round. Then he has to make a roster to get paid - and that's pretty unlikely at this stage (unless a team just wants to hide him away - so they keep him at the bottom of the roster - but will Giles know this is the case?). Only way he should go is if he is drafted in round 1.
If I'm an NBA GM I would not draft him. There are other players who have not been hurt and have shown they can play well at the college level. Esp. if you need players. You just don't know for sure about how well he'll come back. And, Giles will have to go through some significant medical checks.
That said, I can see a team that has a lot of talent and few needs, near the end of round 1, possibly taking a flyer on him. That's the only way he gets drafted.
It's surprising where he is physically. His serious injury is a year and a half out. He did have a minor setback at the beginning of the year but that is not all that atypical for players coming back from an injury to need a bit more work. But, usually then the player is close to full speed a couple of months after such surgeries.
Not if he falls to the 2nd round. Then he has to make a roster to get paid - and that's pretty unlikely at this stage (unless a team just wants to hide him away - so they keep him at the bottom of the roster - but will Giles know this is the case?). Only way he should go is if he is drafted in round 1.
If I'm an NBA GM I would not draft him. There are other players who have not been hurt and have shown they can play well at the college level. Esp. if you need players. You just don't know for sure about how well he'll come back. And, Giles will have to go through some significant medical checks.
That said, I can see a team that has a lot of talent and few needs, near the end of round 1, possibly taking a flyer on him. That's the only way he gets drafted.
It's surprising where he is physically. His serious injury is a year and a half out. He did have a minor setback at the beginning of the year but that is not all that atypical for players coming back from an injury to need a bit more work. But, usually then the player is close to full speed a couple of months after such surgeries.
If he comes back for a second season and his numbers don't increase and he doesn't look more mobile he falls out of the first round and possibly goes undrafted. He may get fully back he may not but there's still enough hope that he can that a team will take a first round shot on him. The longer he stays the less likely anyone will take that shot
Physically he shows some flashes, but in general, I agree with you. I think the mental hurdle he's trying to overcome is exponentially higher, though.
This is a good point. And really, it highlights the questions I was asking. I understand teams draft on potential and not merely current ability. Honest question.. How much potential does Giles actually have? Is it *only* mental or will his knees always keep him from being dominant? I'm not saying this to be a jerk as I sincerely hope the best for Giles, but right now, he hasn't shown he's even a very good college player, much less a decent NBA player.
Yes, if he's not guaranteed second-round money then coming back becomes an option. However, I think he'll be a first-round pick.
As for his potential, it's hard to say. Clearly the second knee injury, and the subsequent "minor" procedure, have been more difficult for him to overcome. Within a year of his first injury he was back to being a dominant prep player against some of his top peers. I won't argue there aren't many questions scouts will have to ask themselves when making evaluations.
It all depends on the team. Late first round means he goes to a contender and gets time behind the scenes to work back into form. Go to a team like the Sixers and he gets too much put on his back and then ends up like Oden or Embiid or Johnathan Bender. It was a constant battle of injuries and misuse with those guys. Hopefully Giles doesn't run into that situation.
Like many have said, I am just glad I don't have to be a part of that decision making process. Too many variables. He has too go if he can get into the first round though. That still won't guarantee anything past 3 yrs I don't believe. He will get his payday, but then can he stick in the NBA? For his sake, I surely hope so. He is a great kid and is in it for the right reasons.
You can always go to school and get an education. You can't always go to the NBA and make a few million even if you don't play.
I agree. I just hope he can stick in the NBA, that is the ultimate goal here. For him anyway.
I'm being optimistic, but I still believe he shows up BIG this NCAAT, cuts down some nets and becomes a lottery pick.
Just like Matt Jones in the E8 vs Gonzaga, Giles will have a game Duke wins because of him.
He shows flashes, it's going to happen. Wait and see.
Just like Matt Jones in the E8 vs Gonzaga, Giles will have a game Duke wins because of him.
He shows flashes, it's going to happen. Wait and see.
He has just as much chance of getting injured coming back to Duke as he does in the D-League. In the second scenario he has a few million bucks. Another possible scenario is he comes back to Duke and doesn't improve. In any event, leaving is a no-brainer.
You guys realize that GMs have to draft based on potential, right? The only way to win in the league is to have one or multiple superstars. That's why for every one Kwahi Leonard there are 5 Daniel Ortons. Harry Giles has the potential to be a superstar, so there will be some GM who will draft him earlier than he probably should.
I guess I don't follow. If Giles dropped 14, 8 and a few assists in a close game it would be the same. Unexpected offensive production.
He made a nice jumper versus UNC but had it taken away due to steps. The game is still there. I have faith in the kid, why wouldn't I.
Giles has to go. His upside is too much for someone in the first round to pass up. If you're picking 17-28, there just aren't a lot of can't miss guys. So why not gamble a little on someone like Giles?
Additionally, going late will be a better fit as he lands at a place where he isn't expected to be the man day 1.
Additionally, going late will be a better fit as he lands at a place where he isn't expected to be the man day 1.
I think Giles should come back to Duke for at least a second year. He is not ready for the NBA except maybe the D-League. The argument that seems to be most consistent with going pro is financial. If he did get a 4 million dollar contract and no more because of injury or being dropped, at least a third of that will go to taxes. Many young professional athletes over spend (cars, houses, jewelry,etc) and end up with very little. One report had 60% of NBA players declaring bankruptcy within 5 years of retirement. I doubt many of the OAD players go on to get a college bachelors degree. He would be better off improving his game under a great coaching staff, building his body up, and getting the best education he can(preferably a degree). A Duke degree will generate a lot of income over a lifetime if he works hard and takes advantage of it.
I see both sides to this and as I've gotten older I've changed my tune a bit. In short, I don't have an issue with kids going to the pros ASAP in order to make money. The life expectancy of a basketball player is 35-40 tops which means the longer you wait, the less time you have to make money. What do normal college kids do when they finish college? Most of the time they seek the job that pays the most. Even if you go out early and bust in the NBA, you can still make hundreds of dollars playing in Europe.
With that being said, there is something to be said about development at the college level. Being able to develop and learn under the GOAT in K really seems to be invaluable. Also developing skills at the college level against similar competition and age group rather than the big leagues with real men and pros seems to be a smarter move. You have plenty of examples of players who stayed in college four years and went on to become all-stars and players seem to forget about those people and continue to chase the immediate money. Staying in college can be viewed as an investment in a long-term pro future rather than a quick cash grab.
With Giles - it's a bit different. There is a lot of risk still associated with him when it comes to injuries. I think 100% he would be better off coming back and developing for another year. The flip side to that coin is that he is one more knee injury away from no NBA team touching him and in turn receiving no compensation for his skills.
With that being said, there is something to be said about development at the college level. Being able to develop and learn under the GOAT in K really seems to be invaluable. Also developing skills at the college level against similar competition and age group rather than the big leagues with real men and pros seems to be a smarter move. You have plenty of examples of players who stayed in college four years and went on to become all-stars and players seem to forget about those people and continue to chase the immediate money. Staying in college can be viewed as an investment in a long-term pro future rather than a quick cash grab.
With Giles - it's a bit different. There is a lot of risk still associated with him when it comes to injuries. I think 100% he would be better off coming back and developing for another year. The flip side to that coin is that he is one more knee injury away from no NBA team touching him and in turn receiving no compensation for his skills.
People forget that he will get an invite to the columbine and he will be able to talk to scouts to get feed back.
There is nothing at Duke he can't improve on in the NBA. Even in the D-league he will still see bigs and play with pg's who are trying to make a roster.
There are no guarantees that we land Duval and that I assure you is a factor as well. If Duke will feed the post because they haven't done it this year. Giles should go because he has the potential
There is nothing at Duke he can't improve on in the NBA. Even in the D-league he will still see bigs and play with pg's who are trying to make a roster.
There are no guarantees that we land Duval and that I assure you is a factor as well. If Duke will feed the post because they haven't done it this year. Giles should go because he has the potential
Maybe I misunderstood, but what I'm saying is that a perimeter player is more likely to have a breakout offensive game than a big guy because anyone can get hot from the perimeter whereas big guys are based on a skill that's not likely to come and go. Having said that, my statement is not a comment on Giles' abilities. I haven't seen enough of him to even have an opinion on that.
How can you not roll the dice on a UK big guy when they currently have the three best big guys in the league?
