Has Early Entry helped or hurt the NBA game

[tate12]

I asked this on TDD but got so little response so I thought that I would pose this to a smarter group.
I have a legitimate question here that I am hoping some of you NBA guys may know. I honestly stopped keeping up with NBA once the one-and-done came around. I hated seeing guys stick around for a year and be gone. The NBA seems to be more popular than ever and is now where all the kids want to be so I don't think it has hurt NBA, as far as popularity near as much as college basketball.

My question is, with so many guys heading straight to the NBA, are their pro careers lasting as long as they used to before the OAD. I have been looking at many NBA stats and it seems as if so many that start in the league as a OAD are out of it by age 31 or 32 whereas in the 60's and 70's it seemed that more were able to keep playing until 36. 37 or so. I know that it is better for them to take the $$$$ at an earlier age but I want to keep the dollars out of the equation. Or, do the $$$$ have to be a part of the equation for getting rid of the older players earlier? By that, are the OAD's taking spots that veterans with experience would have normally held?

I know that Kobe and Lebron are exceptions but i was wondering if a 12 to 14 year career is as taxing on the body starting at age 19 than a more mature 22 or 23 year old? Seriously, i have no idea so wanted to see the consensus.

 

[nets on nets on nets]

You are definitely right that the NBA is more popular than ever, but it’s not the immediate OAD guys that are fueling fan excitement, the free agents that are 26-30 years old have become a lot of times the biggest story in SPORTS. Now of course, a lot of said free agents were OAD at some time.

I don’t have the numbers on the average career of a OAD in 2019 versus a 4 year player 20 years ago. But what I do know, is the OAD exists because of 2 things..
1. It makes sense from a business standpoint, NBA GM’s get a full season to scout a prospect now. No more Kwame Brown’s going #1 overall.
2. From a players standpoint, they want to enter the league asap because they are that much closer to their 2nd contract which can be 20-40 million dollars annually.

I would assume that playing 82 games at 19 years old is more taxing on the body than playing in college. But again..one year closer to the big time dollars. I have not noticed any crazy trend of guys flaming out earlier than in the past. Dirk as an example, came here at 18 years old, and played until he was 39.

 

[tate12]

Excellent point about Dirk.

 

[ttk2002]

hurt

 

[PixelDevil]

to a smarter group

This site does have some of the smartest 95 year olds I’ve ever met.

 

[Arlene]

I asked this on TDD but got so little response so I thought that I would pose this to a smarter group.
I have a legitimate question here that I am hoping some of you NBA guys may know. I honestly stopped keeping up with NBA once the one-and-done came around. I hated seeing guys stick around for a year and be gone. The NBA seems to be more popular than ever and is now where all the kids want to be so I don't think it has hurt NBA, as far as popularity near as much as college basketball.

My question is, with so many guys heading straight to the NBA, are their pro careers lasting as long as they used to before the OAD. I have been looking at many NBA stats and it seems as if so many that start in the league as a OAD are out of it by age 31 or 32 whereas in the 60's and 70's it seemed that more were able to keep playing until 36. 37 or so. I know that it is better for them to take the $$$$ at an earlier age but I want to keep the dollars out of the equation. Or, do the $$$$ have to be a part of the equation for getting rid of the older players earlier? By that, are the OAD's taking spots that veterans with experience would have normally held?

I know that Kobe and Lebron are exceptions but i was wondering if a 12 to 14 year career is as taxing on the body starting at age 19 than a more mature 22 or 23 year old? Seriously, i have no idea so wanted to see the consensus.

Personally think it’s helped both the NBA and college basketball when the other option is straight to the league out of HS. Now, if they were willing to make a rule that states if you do go to college, you’ve got to stay at least 2-3 years then losing 15-20 kids per year who go straight to the league would be acceptable and benefit both college and NBA basketball.

Also think that letting HS kids, who end up not going anywhere close to where they were projected, the ability to come to college or go play overseas would only strengthen the above. The NCAA and NBA can work out the last date that a high school kid can pull out of the draft and be eligible to go play college ball. Finally, players that go the college route and who have to wait 2-3 years before going to the NBA should NOT be able to go play internationally after only spending a year in college basketball.

 

[christophero]

It depends on what you value. I'm gonna say hurt. I miss the days of building a team, yes, even like the late 2000's when we struggled. That made the 2010 title sweeter. Getting a bit tired of the build a bear teams where we had to completely start over every year. Yes we get guys like Zion, but only for a year. Winning is nice but not the only thing that matters.

 

[Mac9192]

No one can fault a kid for getting to the next level as quick as possible. They're getting ridiculous money thrown at them. Most of these kids aren't ready. Kennard was the 12th pick in the 17 draft, and he's averaging 8.6 points a game. That's where some fans, myself included, say that's not worthy of millions of dollars. But then again, the money's there, so can't blame Luke for taking it. Tatum, who was the 3rd pick that year, is averaging 15 points a game. Not bad, but not tearing the league up. Maybe he does this season. The nba takes so many kids off potential and hope. I.E. Cam Reddish and Harry Giles.
Then there's the guys like Duval, Trent, and Frank Jackson. All 3 have time to make their mark, but so far haven't. All 3 one and done.

The college game is the one that suffers. The fans more so. It's a new batch of kids each season. Not the Duke teams a lot of us are used to seeing. We all were so ecstatic that Tre Jones decided to stay for his SOPHOMORE season.

 

[Arlene]

It depends on what you value. I'm gonna say hurt. I miss the days of building a team, yes, even like the late 2000's when we struggled. That made the 2010 title sweeter. Getting a bit tired of the build a bear teams where we had to completely start over every year. Yes we get guys like Zion, but only for a year. Winning is nice but not the only thing that matters.

Would you rather never have a year of Zion, Tatum, Kyrie, Ingram, Bagley, Reddick, etc?

 

[christophero]

Not sure. It feels like a cruel tease just having them for one year most of the time. Esp. when they don't realize their potential until they get to the NBA.

 

[lyonhawk]

Would you rather never have a year of Zion, Tatum, Kyrie, Ingram, Bagley, Reddick, etc?

We had Redick for 4 years...

I don't think there's really anything that shows longevity is based on the wear and tear more than skill. Kobe. KG, T-Mac all had long careers. Luol Deng played forever, LeBron, KD, Carmelo, etc. The guys who are good enough play well into their 30s. The guys who have short careers probably wouldn't have been any better off going to college as far as their NBA careers are concerned.

When to go to the NBA is really a matter of where are you going to get drafted. Kennard was never going to be a top 10 pick, so he went at the right time. Another year at Duke wouldn't have changed that, and he probably improved more averaging 8 pts a game for 82 games against pros plus having his entire schedule to devote to basketball than he would have averaging 20 a game at Duke for 40 games against often very overmatched amateurs. Same goes for Tatum, he improved more as a rookie for Boston than he would have as a second year player at Duke.

Overall, I think OAD has been far better for the NBA than the previous rule. You don't have nearly as many top 3 picks straight out of HS flaming out like Kwame Brown, Andrew Bynum, etc. It's also been better for college getting to see guys like Zion and RJ even if it's just for a year. Zion was the main attraction throughout most of the basketball season last year. That wouldn't have happened without OAD.