Wonder what CC is going to cook up to try and slow Garza a bit, but they're more than just him. Winning this one would be gigantic, but we'll be decided underdogs - just the way we like it.
How do we like our chances against Iowa?
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Bottom line is we’re good enough to have a decent shot at beating any team on our schedule this year. Some games (like this one) will have a very small margin for error, and require us to play at our best - but NU’s best is good enough.
Against Garza, Collins hinted that we would try to slow him down but not sell out to stop him. He's very aware of Io_a's other shooters. So a hoops version of bend-not-break defense.
you know all our big guys Barren, Kopp, Ryan and Nance with his length....might give Mr. Garza some issues......I mean Kopp looked like Garza the other day.....and I love the defensive length of Nance....I think he will eventually develop into a great shot blocker......also we may be able to get him into foul trouble.....I think we play with these guys
Garza can get 40 and still dominate us on the boards and passes. I think you throw every mix of personnel and double-teams or fake double-teams at him, similar to what we used to do against Ethan Happ, and hope the outside shooters don’t get too hot.
What gives me a glimmer of hope is how well we double-teamed against Indiana and OSU, and then rotated back to cover the open guys and limit their open looks. In prior years, we had to pick our poison: let their big guy dominate us inside, or risk getting lit up from 3. But now, we have enough athleticism on defense to play good team defense: double team to force the big man to pass, then rotate back to contest the outside shot. Best of both worlds.
Lumkpin allowed that type of D against Happ. Dude had such a high IQ on when to switch up doubling vs. not that kept Happ off balance. On top of already being the best defender on that team. We shall see if Gaines will emulate that role and Collins and crew use a similar strategy.
We will need to score the ball a lot better than we did yesterday vs. OSU. Then again, I don't think Iowa's defense is as good as Ohio States.
I'm afraid our guys are going to have tired legs in this one. They have played a lot of games in the past 10 days.
I didn't watch the Minnesota-Iowa game, but looking at the box score of that one, Iowa was their usual self on offense - 1.2 points per possession.
However, the Hawkeyes gave up 1.32 points per possession, and the Gophs bombed away for 39.5% from distance (17-43). It's not like Minny was awesome from 3pt coming into that game, they were around 32%. However, they are hella-committed to chuckin' it. In B1G games, more than half of their shot attempts are from distance.
Minnesota can also get to the FT line. In that upset, their FTA/FGA was high: 43, and they're also stellar from FT - 25-29.
Coach Fran's squads have not defended well in conference since 2017. (PPP/B1G Rank):
2017: 1.06 (10th)
2018: 1.19 (14th)
2019: 1.09 (13th)
2020: 1.07 (12th)
2021 so far: 1.11 (11th)
So, if there's a path to victory: Can the 'Cats hit 3s, get to the line and hit their FTs?
However, the Hawkeyes gave up 1.32 points per possession, and the Gophs bombed away for 39.5% from distance (17-43). It's not like Minny was awesome from 3pt coming into that game, they were around 32%. However, they are hella-committed to chuckin' it. In B1G games, more than half of their shot attempts are from distance.
Minnesota can also get to the FT line. In that upset, their FTA/FGA was high: 43, and they're also stellar from FT - 25-29.
Coach Fran's squads have not defended well in conference since 2017. (PPP/B1G Rank):
2017: 1.06 (10th)
2018: 1.19 (14th)
2019: 1.09 (13th)
2020: 1.07 (12th)
2021 so far: 1.11 (11th)
So, if there's a path to victory: Can the 'Cats hit 3s, get to the line and hit their FTs?
Garza may well have an off night as even the best do. NU can put a big on him at face level and play him as tough as possible. Even if he us the best in the college game this year, we just need to limit his amazing production to something human for 40 minutes. An upset may hinge on NU 3 point shooting as many a game now comes down to that. Low Low Expectations for NU as the underdogs only helps. This is a free shot at a top 10 team for a team with momentum. Fitz has more expectation to deal with than CC right now. It will be fun and the top competition will only make NU stronger. Chase and Boo Berry are going to have some fun. Just hope the 3s fall.
Does it make sense to try to make Iowa run? Make Garza move up and down the floor a lot, and then hack him death on shots? That could be a role for Nicholson--maybe 5 fouls in 10 minutes or so?
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Anxious to see the spread on this game. I'd guess Io_a by 5.
It seemed that NU just missed a lot of shots against duh-OSU and it may be because the duh-OSU D is really good. Let's hope so. I think NU must break 80 to beat Io_a. Hitting 3's like Minny did would be a great approach.
Garza looks like one of the best players in the college game. Let's just hope he has an off night.
Up to now, few have thought NU is for real, but that's over. Io_a will be ready. It's so good to have a team that competes in this conference. The conference will send a bunch of teams to the tournament and those that make it will be used to tournament level competition.
GO CATS!
I like our chances against any team in the conference. We're not going to win every game, but it's funny. Now, I expect victory.
Nobody is playing massive minutes. The depth is going to keep us fresh, and also make sure that if 1-2 guys are having off nights, others can step up and play the role.
I unfortunately think this is a perfect storm game- in a bad way. I believe we are a good team, but I also believe Iowa is the best team in the conference. And they are coming off a bad loss while we have won three in a row that no one expected us to. Just feels like a +20 point loss to me. That is not a reflection of what kind of team I think we are, more about this particular game coming at this particular time.
Hope I’m wrong.
Hope I’m wrong.
Iowa has had a very similar 3 game stretch in a week's time, losing to Gonzaga, beating Purdue and then gifting a game to the Gophers. So the timing angle is bad for both teams playing their 4th tough game in a 10 day period. My biggest question is whether we can score enough to win. Iowa is not a great defensive team. Can we get to 80?
GOUNUII
I know the Fighting Undies aren’t playing well now, but I think they have the most talent in the conference.
Definitely in the conversation. A little less offensive firepower, but better defense from the Illini.
Yep I was going to say somewhere between 12-14, so this feels like a good number.
Johnson on Minnesota went 8 for 9 on threes with many down the stretch and that was the difference. Iowa's guards had off night shooting and that was the game. Depends which teams shooters get hot. Love the way we are in these games. Also love that middle is not all clogged like years past. This team is fun to watch!
I don’t know if we aren’t playing well, but our relatively young squad is certainly figuring things out. Certainly no bad losses.
I’d say 80 won’t win the game. 85. Fortunately IA is not good on defense and plays fast. So if we can get hot we have a good chance. If our shooting is not good, it’s gonna be a long night.
Iowa has lost twice, so they aren't invincible. In my view, the path to victory involves two things; doubling Garza down low, and rebounding. We were bigger than OSU and got out-rebounded 40 - 26. They had way too many offensive rebounds and 2nd chance points. Garza can get his points, as long as they aren't cheap ones because we don't block out. We match up favorably with the rest of their guys. If we shoot well we can certainly win. My guess on the line is Iowa minus 6.5. If it's more than that, I'll take the 'Cats.
I don’t think in this day and age I would call it a relatively young team. This isn’t 1986 any more. Ayo and Kofi are in the last year. Frazier is done too. There are a few others that have seen plenty of minutes too. It has to be this year for you guys because you will regress next year.
Eh, maybe. They’ll miss Ayo for sure. How could you not! But I’m not convinced Kofi is going to the NBA yet. Good college player, but can’t see how he translates to the NBA. Frazier doesn’t have to leave either, he could elect to stay another year. Curbello looks like he could be a real problem next season. Who knows, Illinois may not necessarily slide back too much.
Regardless, it’s hard to know if they’ll regress or to what degree. Extrapolating season to season is hard. Iowa was supposed to be the Death Star with Luka and a bunch of whites draining threes, but they just lost to Minnesota (and Minn sucks!). Indiana was supposed to be much better in Year 4 of the Archie Miller experience, and yet they blow. Northwestern sucked *** for three straight years and blew a game to Pitt this year, but then smoked MSU and won two more games against top 40 Kenpom teams and should be ranked on Monday. Anything can happen within a season, much less looking from year to year. You gotta play the games and see what shakes out. Go ask Izzo after the week he just had!
The margin of error for NU is pretty thin no matter who in BIG we are playing