How much more deadly is Corona vs. the Swine Flu?

[buster3.0]

I have been trying to do online research on this topic and only keep finding the same information. That is, Corona is more contagious, more easily spread and there is no vaccine. But what I really want to find out is the comparison of the severity of the two once you are affected. I can't seem to find anything. It seems the swine flu primarily adversely affected young people while today's corona adversely affects old people.

I lived through the swine flu and so did my kids. Hell, it was only 10 years ago. There wasn't any lockdowns, masks, or constant talk and fear all over the media or internet in general. Upon reflection, I believe my son probably caught swine flu. It is the only time he had to be taken to the hospital in his life, due to a fever and dehydration out of control. They didn't test it or anything with him.

They sure as **** never even brought up the possibility of closing schools or anything else for that matter. Hell, I really didn't even pay attention to the swine flu or anyone else I knew. I was just a news coverage story on the back page.

So please educate me. What is the difference in symptoms and overall health effect between the two.

 

[HagginHall1999]

The swine flu killed roughly 12k in US. It targeted kids though moreso than Covid has but in terms of death...it isn't close overall based off numbers reported.

 

[gamecockcat]

The numbers I saw on swine flu was more like 60k deaths with 60 million infected. More contagious, less severe.

I also read an article that claimed over 300 testing facilities in Florida have had 100% positive test results which makes one truly wonder what the true number is. Some 'officials' have speculated that it could be 10x higher than actual number. Who knows?

 

[ukgrad83]

I also read an article that claimed over 300 testing facilities in Florida have had 100% positive test results which makes one truly wonder what the true number is.

I heard that too and then I saw this. They claim it was a mistake but I don't buy it. Flat out falsifying information.

https://twitchy.com/gregp-3534/2020...d-in-floridas-reported-covid-19-test-results/

 

[numberonedad]

My wife tested 21 people last Saturday here in Naples and 19 were positive

 

[Atrain7732]

If the high positives are true I think the silver lining would be that the areas experiencing them should be well on their way to herd immunity. From what I have heard reported and seen, that will happen much quicker than any viable vaccine.

Reports of serology tests from almost the start of this thing have indicated antibodies in as much as 10-20x those that are reported positive. If that was the number at the start, a reasonable assumption would be that number should be much higher now.

JMHO of course. I really don’t believe half of what I see or read on this thing now. Both sides are playing politics with this, and the rest of people are just speculating. So I’m just trying to be common sense smart and cautious here in SW Florida where I keep hearing there is a “spike”. Yet, in my county of almost 300k people last I checked a couple days ago we had 1100 positive cases and like 69 deaths total. Out of a population with a median age of prolly 75+. It’s a very serious thing and some pockets of Florida are experiencing issues evidently but it’s not as extensive here as reported I don’t think.

 

[JDHoss]

I know 12 people who have tested positive for Covid-19.

* 3 are dead, including our neighbor.

* 2 were hospitalized for 3+ months. One was a nurse in her late 20's. The other was a dentist in his mid 30's. The dentist has extensive lung damage.

* 3 were former coworkers who had it. While not hospitalized, they were sick enough to miss a month or so of work

* 1 is a mechanic from where I used to work. He also missed a month of work.

* 1 is our grandson's step grandmother. She isn't hospitalized yet, but is in her 3rd week of being really sick and so weak she can hardly get out of bed.

* 2 who tested positive, but are asymptomatic.

I don't recall knowing anyone who had the swine flu.

 

[numberonedad]

I know 12 people who have tested positive for Covid-19.

* 3 are dead, including our neighbor.

* 2 were hospitalized for 3+ months. One was a nurse in her late 20's. The other was a dentist in his mid 30's. The dentist has extensive lung damage.

* 3 were former coworkers who had it. While not hospitalized, they were sick enough to miss a month or so of work

* 1 is a mechanic from where I used to work. He also missed a month of work.

* 1 is our grandson's step grandmother. She isn't hospitalized yet, but is in her 3rd week of being really sick and so weak she can hardly get out of bed.

* 2 who tested positive, but are asymptomatic.

I don't recall knowing anyone who had the swine flu.

Living here, I know at least 20 people that have had it including a good friend. He is 50 years old, was in the hospital 5 weeks, lost 60 pounds an was on a ventilator 17 days. Our neighbors 17 year old daughter died last week from it. She was a previous cancer survivor. Another friends son and daughter in law have it as well as their 10 year old son.

My wife and I had it, did our 14 day quarantine and are good to go.

 

[GoBigBlue712]

The thing about the swine flu is that we had a flu vaccine when it happened, which means it was not has severe as it would have been without one. A better comparison would have been the 1918 Spanish Flu, which so far, has taken an eerily similar path to COVID. (People wanted to open up businesses, not wear masks, etc., and then the second and third waves were much deadlier than the first.)

 

[AlbanyWildCat]

If the high positives are true I think the silver lining would be that the areas experiencing them should be well on their way to herd immunity. From what I have heard reported and seen, that will happen much quicker than any viable vaccine.

Reports of serology tests from almost the start of this thing have indicated antibodies in as much as 10-20x those that are reported positive. If that was the number at the start, a reasonable assumption would be that number should be much higher now.

JMHO of course. I really don’t believe half of what I see or read on this thing now. Both sides are playing politics with this, and the rest of people are just speculating. So I’m just trying to be common sense smart and cautious here in SW Florida where I keep hearing there is a “spike”. Yet, in my county of almost 300k people last I checked a couple days ago we had 1100 positive cases and like 69 deaths total. Out of a population with a median age of prolly 75+. It’s a very serious thing and some pockets of Florida are experiencing issues evidently but it’s not as extensive here as reported I don’t think.

Herd immunity works in tandem with a vaccine...can't really have one without the other.

 

[JohnBlue]

Topics like this is why people have to fight about this every day.

You did your research and heck yea for one billion percent sure Coivid is way more contagious. With that information (that you yourself found) you proceed to ask why weren't the same steps taken for a much lessor virus?? You already answered your own question.

Do you not like the answer, or is there another reason why you don't accept the results you found?

 

[Kaizer Sosay]

From now until November 3rd? Covid will be 100,000,000 times more deadly than anything we have ever known!!! Teachers need to make out their wills now before it’s too late!!! (but not BLM protestors or workers at Lowe’s, Home Depot & liquor stores...for some reason they don’t need to make out wills because they are all immune)

After November 4th? Covid won’t be near as deadly.

 

[CatsFanGG24]

Depends on the age of the person. H1N1 killed 317 kids in US and mainly attacked those under 65. C19 is basically the opposite. (Yes - I’m aware of the outliers)

Nothing has ever been tracked like C19 before - so hard to really say...H1N1 tracker much more like annual flu (with estimations)

Ron Klain stated that “we did every possible thing wrong” with H1N1...just pure luck that is wasn’t a great mass casualty event because it had a low lethality.

 

[RunninRichie]

I just want some good news....please anyone

 

[GoBigBlue712]

I just want some good news....please anyone

Oxford vaccine trials are doing pretty well.

 

[Atrain7732]

Herd immunity works in tandem with a vaccine...can't really have one without the other.

My understanding is that you do not require a vaccine, although that is certainly the preferred way to achieve herd immunity.

Just a quick google search seems to back that up, as this was from Johns Hopkins Q&A with an infectious disease doctor.

“As with any other infection, there are two ways to achieve herd immunity: A large proportion of the population either gets infected or gets a protective vaccine. Based on early estimates of this virus’s infectiousness, we will likely need at least 70% of the population to be immune to have herd protection.”

Not any kind of expert as I stated in my OP, but I have heard quite frequently references to the ability of achieving herd immunity in lieu of a vaccine if 70+% of the population has been infected whether knowingly or not, and has developed some form of immunity from antibodies.

I will include the link where I pulled the quote from as well for reference. To be clear, I agree that the vaccine is the best and most often form of herd immunity but bc of the widespread nature of this virus, I think it could be possible to reach herd immunity before the vaccine is available. But, I’m just a layperson so I guess we will see what happens.

https://www.jhsph.edu/covid-19/articles/achieving-herd-immunity-with-covid19.html

 

[ganner918_rivals60369]

I have been trying to do online research on this topic and only keep finding the same information. That is, Corona is more contagious, more easily spread and there is no vaccine. But what I really want to find out is the comparison of the severity of the two once you are affected. I can't seem to find anything. It seems the swine flu primarily adversely affected young people while today's corona adversely affects old people.

I lived through the swine flu and so did my kids. Hell, it was only 10 years ago. There wasn't any lockdowns, masks, or constant talk and fear all over the media or internet in general. Upon reflection, I believe my son probably caught swine flu. It is the only time he had to be taken to the hospital in his life, due to a fever and dehydration out of control. They didn't test it or anything with him.

They sure as **** never even brought up the possibility of closing schools or anything else for that matter. Hell, I really didn't even pay attention to the swine flu or anyone else I knew. I was just a news coverage story on the back page.

So please educate me. What is the difference in symptoms and overall health effect between the two.

H1N1 was estimated to kill 1 in every 5000 people who caught it. Covid-19 is estimated (variously, we still aren't entirely sure partly because it's hard to track just how many people catch it and because the fatality rate is so wildly different across age groups) to kill between 1 in every 100 to 1 in every 500 people who catch it. So Covid-19 is 10 to 50 times deadlier. H1N1 was probably deadlier to young children. They might be comparable for very young adults. Then Covid-19 fatality rate just increases rapidly as you go up age brackets. But H1N1 had VERY low fatality rates, it killed at a lower rate than typical seasonal flu. It just spread very quickly because, as a novel strain, nobody had any level of immunity to it.

 

[Saguaro Cat]

If the high positives are true I think the silver lining would be that the areas experiencing them should be well on their way to herd immunity. From what I have heard reported and seen, that will happen much quicker than any viable vaccine.

Reports of serology tests from almost the start of this thing have indicated antibodies in as much as 10-20x those that are reported positive. If that was the number at the start, a reasonable assumption would be that number should be much higher now.

JMHO of course. I really don’t believe half of what I see or read on this thing now. Both sides are playing politics with this, and the rest of people are just speculating. So I’m just trying to be common sense smart and cautious here in SW Florida where I keep hearing there is a “spike”. Yet, in my county of almost 300k people last I checked a couple days ago we had 1100 positive cases and like 69 deaths total. Out of a population with a median age of prolly 75+. It’s a very serious thing and some pockets of Florida are experiencing issues evidently but it’s not as extensive here as reported I don’t think.

We are so far away from herd immunity. The first antibody tests said 10 to 20, but that was when 1/2 of a 1/2% was infected, and a small error could make a huge difference.

They've done much better, bigger testing since then. New York City was 20% a month ago. But that was the hardest hit city. The nation is much lighter. The entire state of Indiana was thought to be only 4% infected at the same time.

At best, the nation might be at 10% now. Let's say 15%. We're going to need the number of people infected to multiply by 5 to get to herd immunity. That's 700,000 dead. That's millions going to the hospital. We don't have the nurses, doctors, hell the body bags, to get to herd immunity.

 

[Atrain7732]

We are so far away from herd immunity. The first antibody tests said 10 to 20, but that was when 1/2 of a 1/2% was infected, and a small error could make a huge difference.

They've done much better, bigger testing since then. New York City was 20% a month ago. But that was the hardest hit city. The nation is much lighter. The entire state of Indiana was thought to be only 4% infected at the same time.

At best, the nation might be at 10% now. Let's say 15%. We're going to need the number of people infected to multiply by 5 to get to herd immunity. That's 700,000 dead. That's millions going to the hospital. We don't have the nurses, doctors, hell the body bags, to get to herd immunity.

Well we either get to herd immunity thru a vaccine or infections. That’s the only two options. Hopefully it’s a vaccine I think everyone agrees on that.

I am wary of the projections however, as I have seen so much disparity from the beginning until now and in between. I have seen serology studies done that are much higher than the numbers you indicate, but I have no idea which of these studies are done properly and all the variables that come into play both geographically and scientifically.

I don’t know what else we can do, short of another complete and total national lockdown, that will have much effect. I also think that the evidence is mixed with regard to whether those total lockdowns even have the effect they are touted to produce. I believe we may be just stuck in wait and see mode here and we can all just try to be cautious.

 

[UKGrad93]

We are so far away from herd immunity. The first antibody tests said 10 to 20, but that was when 1/2 of a 1/2% was infected, and a small error could make a huge difference.

They've done much better, bigger testing since then. New York City was 20% a month ago. But that was the hardest hit city. The nation is much lighter. The entire state of Indiana was thought to be only 4% infected at the same time.

At best, the nation might be at 10% now. Let's say 15%. We're going to need the number of people infected to multiply by 5 to get to herd immunity. That's 700,000 dead. That's millions going to the hospital. We don't have the nurses, doctors, hell the body bags, to get to herd immunity.

I agree that we are a long way from having herd immunity without a vaccine. FWIW, the antibody tests have a really high error rates.

 

[bigblueinsanity_rivals250340]

Good luck. You'll never be able to do a comparison because noone has any clue how many people are/were positive. They only know how many tests were positive.

Also due to the way they counted covid deaths, you'll never know how many died with that as their primary cause.

 

[WayneDougan_rivals170043]

I had the swine flu. It sucked. I’d rather have swine flu than this fo’ sho.

 

[CatsFanGG24]

We are so far away from herd immunity. The first antibody tests said 10 to 20, but that was when 1/2 of a 1/2% was infected, and a small error could make a huge difference.

They've done much better, bigger testing since then. New York City was 20% a month ago. But that was the hardest hit city. The nation is much lighter. The entire state of Indiana was thought to be only 4% infected at the same time.

At best, the nation might be at 10% now. Let's say 15%. We're going to need the number of people infected to multiply by 5 to get to herd immunity. That's 700,000 dead. That's millions going to the hospital. We don't have the nurses, doctors, hell the body bags, to get to herd immunity.

You’re only accounting for antibody and not T cell response. Many have T cell response and do not show abs. T cell is long term and the response you want. Also growing thought that this has burned out and through communities at around 20% seroprevalence.

Cross beta coronavirus immunities also play a part. For example - SARS1 T cell response still fights against SARs2 and this is from infection 17 yr ago.

 

[PhDcat2018]

We are so far away from herd immunity. The first antibody tests said 10 to 20, but that was when 1/2 of a 1/2% was infected, and a small error could make a huge difference.

They've done much better, bigger testing since then. New York City was 20% a month ago. But that was the hardest hit city. The nation is much lighter. The entire state of Indiana was thought to be only 4% infected at the same time.

At best, the nation might be at 10% now. Let's say 15%. We're going to need the number of people infected to multiply by 5 to get to herd immunity. That's 700,000 dead. That's millions going to the hospital. We don't have the nurses, doctors, hell the body bags, to get to herd immunity.

Herd immunity in america will be like every other country for covid-19. 15-20%. T-cell immunity is a big factor.

 

[JDHoss]

I had the swine flu. It sucked. I’d rather have swine flu than this fo’ sho.

I haven't had the flu since I started taking a flu shot, which is now over 30 years. My wife has had it once in that same span. She tested positive for the flu, but was over it in about 4 days. It was enough to knock of us out of going to the Music City bowl for the Northwestern game and knocked my wife out of going to our granddaughter's 1st Christmas. If I got sick and tested positive for the flu, I'd be like "well crap...I'll have to stay in for a few days." If I tested positive for Covid-19, I'd be sweating bullets, trying to block a a mental of me in a hospital bed with a ventilator.

 

[WayneDougan_rivals170043]

I haven't had the flu since I started taking a flu shot, which is now over 30 years. My wife has had it once in that same span. She tested positive for the flu, but was over it in about 4 days. It was enough to knock of us out of going to the Music City bowl for the Northwestern game and knocked my wife out of going to our granddaughter's 1st Christmas. If I got sick and tested positive for the flu, I'd be like "well crap...I'll have to stay in for a few days." If I tested positive for Covid-19, I'd be sweating bullets, trying to block a a mental of me in a hospital bed with a ventilator.

On the other hand, if you had Swine flu you were going to feel it. With Covid, a lot of folks - including my cousin - didn't know they even had it.

 

[numberonedad]

I haven't had the flu since I started taking a flu shot, which is now over 30 years. My wife has had it once in that same span. She tested positive for the flu, but was over it in about 4 days. It was enough to knock of us out of going to the Music City bowl for the Northwestern game and knocked my wife out of going to our granddaughter's 1st Christmas. If I got sick and tested positive for the flu, I'd be like "well crap...I'll have to stay in for a few days." If I tested positive for Covid-19, I'd be sweating bullets, trying to block a a mental of me in a hospital bed with a ventilator.

And that’s the worst part. Thinking of ish like that. It can play on your mind

 

[jrpross_rivals]

I know 12 people who have tested positive for Covid-19.

* 3 are dead, including our neighbor.

* 2 were hospitalized for 3+ months. One was a nurse in her late 20's. The other was a dentist in his mid 30's. The dentist has extensive lung damage.

* 3 were former coworkers who had it. While not hospitalized, they were sick enough to miss a month or so of work

* 1 is a mechanic from where I used to work. He also missed a month of work.

* 1 is our grandson's step grandmother. She isn't hospitalized yet, but is in her 3rd week of being really sick and so weak she can hardly get out of bed.

* 2 who tested positive, but are asymptomatic.

I don't recall knowing anyone who had the swine flu.

Good lord. That’s quite a group. Yet some will still say it’s a hoax.

 

[JDHoss]

Good lord. That’s quite a group. Yet some will still say it’s a hoax.

There's a sizable chunk of the public that is arrogantly stupid, and there is a subset of that group that is bat guano crazy. Anyone thinking that this is a hoax falls into the latter category.

 

[Ukbrassowtipin]

Topics like this is why people have to fight about this every day.

You did your research and heck yea for one billion percent sure Coivid is way more contagious. With that information (that you yourself found) you proceed to ask why weren't the same steps taken for a much lessor virus?? You already answered your own question.

Do you not like the answer, or is there another reason why you don't accept the results you found?

Aren't like close to 40% of the deaths in 3 states..NY,NJ, and CT....so in the rest of the country its not as deadly to other viruses

 

[JohnBlue]

Aren't like close to 40% of the deaths in 3 states..NY,NJ, and CT....so in the rest of the country its not as deadly to other viruses

Those three states are the proof of what will happen if you don't take precautions. 86,000 dead people don't make the point that isn't a dangerous virus.

All we have to work with are the numbers being reported, they may true, they may not be but they are all we have so they can't be ignored. That said we made past the curve, the deaths have gone way down and it's time to open things back up. The country was shut down to get control of deaths and that's been accomplished by flying numbers.

 

[uk_bill]

Aren't like close to 40% of the deaths in 3 states..NY,NJ, and CT....so in the rest of the country its not as deadly to other viruses

Not a big fan of trying to down play Covid be saying "ya but if take out these 3 states" or "ya but if you take out people over 65"...

We are able to track this more than any other in history - as its happening! And yes not all of the reporting is 100% accurate, but still hearing too many who think this is a hoax, Left sided attempt to overthrow Trump...

Not arguing if the media does try to scare us for attention, that's what media has always done (see y2k, ebola, killer bees, etc etc)

 

[Wildcats1st]

H1N1 is the same strain as the spanish flu so there is some built in immunity
H1N1 had treatments from day 1 tamiflu specifically
H1N1 had a vaccine available quite quickly

None of this applies to covid19

 

[CatsFanGG24]

H1N1 is the same strain as the spanish flu so there is some built in immunity
H1N1 had treatments from day 1 tamiflu specifically
H1N1 had a vaccine available quite quickly

None of this applies to covid19

Solid point. Hard to compare.

The OG H1N1 killed 50million. That would also be tough to compare today - bc of the technology and communications differences.