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@ IA - What's at stake?

GatoLouco

GatoLouco

Sophomore
Nov 13, 2019
5,636
116
63
We are 10.5 underdogs tonight. 12.1% chance of winning. Bleak.

With MD's win yesterday we now sit at #12 in conference. The significance of #12 and #13 is that not only we do not avoid the 1st day, but also that we do not get to play Nebraska. And that's pretty much the only team that gives me confidence of getting to day 2.

PSU - 7-11 - remaining @IL and @RU - likely 0-2 and have tie breaker against NU
MD - 6-11 - remaining vs MN and @MSU - likely 1-1 and have tie breaker against NU
NU - 6-11 - remaining @IA and vs MN - 1-1 likely
MN - 4-15 - remaining @MD and @NU - likely 0-2, but a 2-0 could put NU at #13

I don't like our chances, but winning tonight is, most likely, the only chance we get to either avoid day one or play Nebraska.
 
S

Styre

Senior
Oct 14, 2004
7,732
403
83
Winning tonight, and then again on Sunday, is also necessary to guarantee a .500 record for the year without needing a run in the conference tournament.
 
GatoLouco

GatoLouco

Sophomore
Nov 13, 2019
5,636
116
63
And a win against MN might keep us out of last place in the KenPom luck ratings. What an achievement for a coach.
 
GatoLouco

GatoLouco

Sophomore
Nov 13, 2019
5,636
116
63
Fitzphile said:
If it weren't for bad luck, he'd have no luck at all......
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There's that saying "I believe in luck, that harder I work the luckier I get". But it really should be rephrased into "the harder and smarter I work"
 
P

PurpleWhiteBoy

Redshirt
Feb 25, 2021
5,303
0
0
Ken Pom's Luck Rating tells us that thru an unbiased statistical evaluation of our team's performances this year, our record should be 16.5 - 10.5 instead of 13 - 14.

And thats with Beran playing and Young sitting on the bench. And all of Collins' silly lineups.

It isn't a stretch to say we have the talent to be 18-9 overall.
 
GatoLouco

GatoLouco

Sophomore
Nov 13, 2019
5,636
116
63
I cringe every time I see our starting 5. And it's not solely because of who starts, as who gets the minutes during the game is more important. It's because we keep losing and our coach shows zero signs of changing anything.

But tonight I have mixed feelings about hoping for a change. Who guards Murray? He's not MN's Battle, he will abuse Audige down low. By now Nance is going on 2 years of not being used to bending his knees on defense. That leaves... Beran and praying?

Murray is averaging 23.2 points. We can't go to zone or we will allow 100 pts. Do we just use a smaller guy and limit him getting the ball when outside by closing passing lanes? While doubling if he gets the ball inside?

I don't have an answer. I have barely seen IA play. Have, therefore, no idea of how other teams guarded him. This is where coaching matter. Curious as to what we'll do.
 
TheC

TheC

All-Conference
May 29, 2001
19,102
1,171
62
GatoLouco said:
We are 10.5 underdogs tonight. 12.1% chance of winning. Bleak.

With MD's win yesterday we now sit at #12 in conference. The significance of #12 and #13 is that not only we do not avoid the 1st day, but also that we do not get to play Nebraska. And that's pretty much the only team that gives me confidence of getting to day 2.

PSU - 7-11 - remaining @IL and @RU - likely 0-2 and have tie breaker against NU
MD - 6-11 - remaining vs MN and @MSU - likely 1-1 and have tie breaker against NU
NU - 6-11 - remaining @IA and vs MN - 1-1 likely
MN - 4-15 - remaining @MD and @NU - likely 0-2, but a 2-0 could put NU at #13

I don't like our chances, but winning tonight is, most likely, the only chance we get to either avoid day one or play Nebraska.
Click to expand...
Do we really care if we win an opening round game against Nebraska? I think the benefit of beating them in the opening round is far outweighed by the potential embarrassment of actually losing to them in the opening round, which would be such a Northwestern thing to do. At this point, there is nothing that can provide any joy to this utter disappointment of a season other than stringing together 3+ wins in the BTT - and that ain't happening.
 
GatoLouco

GatoLouco

Sophomore
Nov 13, 2019
5,636
116
63
GatoLouco said:
And a win against MN might keep us out of last place in the KenPom luck ratings. What an achievement for a coach.
Click to expand...
We moved up one spot, from 357 to 356. We actually are now at -0.125, same score of previous last place Washington State. But thank God for Kennesaw State, who now sits in last place.
 
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