It isn't even so much the ****** non-conference schedule, to be honest. We had plenty of chances to get impressive wins and failed. I think we have a pretty good stake at 9th best team in the conference --- 1-9 against teams above us, 7-1 against teams below us. Means we had 10 chances for big wins and won 1 of them. Had we gotten 3 or 4, plus Va Tech, plus a decent showing against UNC, we'd have a good case.
Just to put a bow on it, here is the 'Cats resume compared to two bubble teams (info from ESPN.com):
Northwestern
W/L: 20-11 (8-10)
RPI: 108
SOS: 161 (OOC: 340)
VS RPI Top 25: 0-7
VS RPI Top 50: 1-7
VS RPI Top 100: 2-10
Last 12: 5-7
Butler
W/L: 21-9 (10-8)
RPI: 44
SOS: 86 (OOC: 262)
VS RPI Top 25: 1-5
VS RPI Top 50: 4-7
VS RPI Top 100: 6-8
Last 12: 8-4
Connecticut
W/L: 21-10 (11-7)
RPI: 55
SOS: 57 (OOC: 112)
VS RPI TOP 25: 2-2
VS RPI TOP 50: 2-4
VS RPI TOP 100: 6-10
Last 12: 7-5
Northwestern simply has too much ground to make up on these resumes, even with an additional 3 decent to great wins in the BTT mentioned in the previous posts (RPI: 70,32,19). We've talked about the flaws in RPI, etc, but it's what the committee uses. Now let's look at Virginia Tech.
Virgina Tech
W/L: 18-13 (10-8)
RPI: 85
SOS: 56 (OCC: 255)
VS RPI TOP 25: 2-7
VS RPI TOP 50: 2-9
VS RPI TOP 100: 6-11
Last 12: 6-6
Honestly, NU doesn't stack up that well against a NIT caliber squad (outside of the head to head).
I still feel ok about the 'Cats NIT prospects (the small conference tournaments -so far- have lowered my confidence a bit), but there's just not a path to the NCAA without snagging the auto bid.