In The National Championship Hunt Yearly

[FreedomWallace]

Thought to seek opinions on annual expectations of our men’s basketball team. From my biased view, I believe considering all things (UK history, resources, financial commitment, fan support, national brand, etc) that it is a fair expectation to be in the National Championship conversation yearly. That doesn’t mean we win it yearly, but at least be in the consideration and conversation. What this translates to at a minimum is a recurring top 10 team with a realistic shot at winning a National Championship. The last 7 years with Cal and Pope have not even been in this ballpark…..am I wrong?

 

[I’m The Village Idiot]

It really depends on what you mean my national championship conversation. The average season for Kentucky basketball is a three-seeded team with a Sweet 16. I expect a coach to quickly be able to get a team to the Elite Eight (one step further than the average) at least once every three seasons on average. I expect to be a 1-4 seed every season — and any season below that mark would be categorized as varying degrees of disappointment. I expect to be top 25 in KenPom offensively AND defensively at least 75% of the time. This accounts for variability, where roster issues occur but means you are a title contender most of the time.

 

[GoCATSGo77]

Honestly Duke is the only program that every year feels like one of the 8 or so teams that can win it all. Sure, once every 10 or so years they have a bad team (COVID year when we sucked too, they sucked). Houston with Sampson seems to be in the hunt every year, but how much longer does Sampson have?? Luckily Duke hasn't broken through for 10 years.
Gonzaga maybe??? But I do feel like most years they are frauds.

UCONN does it right. They aren't contenders every year, but when they are considered one of the best teams, they generally cut down the nets.

But yes...We are Kentucky, there is no reason we can't be at the same level as Duke.

 

[Eight_Banners]

Thought to seek opinions on annual expectations of our men’s basketball team. From my biased view, I believe considering all things (UK history, resources, financial commitment, fan support, national brand, etc) that it is a fair expectation to be in the National Championship conversation yearly. That doesn’t mean we win it yearly, but at least be in the consideration and conversation. What this translates to at a minimum is a recurring top 10 team with a realistic shot at winning a National Championship. The last 7 years with Cal and Pope have not even been in this ballpark…..am I wrong?

We were in the conversation for National Championship aspirations just ten months ago as a 3-seed.

2023-24: 3 seed
2022-23: 6 seed
2021-22: 2 seed

Any team that finishes in the top-25 I would consider as being in the conversation for a National Championship. For the last 37 seasons, when I was of age to really be into UK basketball, we have been outside the top-25 in the final polls just 9 times.

1989-90: Probation
2005-07: Tubby's last two years
2008-09: Gillispie's two seasons
2013: Calipari NIT
2014: Made the title game
2021: 9-16
2023: Round of 32 loss

So, we should be out of the conversation, on average, about once every 5 years. These last few seasons have been roller-coasters. We were kind of in the conversation in 2023, but flamed out. So, we've been in the conversation 3 of the last 4 years. I would say Pope bought himself a year by keeping us in the conversation last year, losing every player from the year before.

I would say a top 2-3 seed 2/3 years, a 1 seed every 3 years or so, and a 4-6 seed every 4 years, and then 5-9 seed every 5 years or so.

 

[Cats_2010]

We should be a legit contender at least 4 of every 5 years at a minimum with runs of a decade or longer being in the mix. I do believe Cal had two teams that were legit contenders (if properly coached). Tshiebwe’s team and sheps team that both got bounced early were both legit contenders losing as 2 seed and 3 seed respectively.

 

[I’m The Village Idiot]

We were in the conversation for National Championship aspirations just ten months ago as a 3-seed.

2023-24: 3 seed
2022-23: 6 seed
2021-22: 2 seed

Any team that finishes in the top-25 I would consider as being in the conversation for a National Championship. For the last 37 seasons, when I was of age to really be into UK basketball, we have been outside the top-25 in the final polls just 9 times.

1989-90: Probation
2005-07: Tubby's last two years
2008-09: Gillispie's two seasons
2013: Calipari NIT
2014: Made the title game
2021: 9-16
2023: Round of 32 loss

So, we should be out of the conversation, on average, about once every 5 years. These last few seasons have been roller-coasters. We were kind of in the conversation in 2023, but flamed out. So, we've been in the conversation 3 of the last 4 years. I would say Pope bought himself a year by keeping us in the conversation last year, losing every player from the year before.

I would say a top 2-3 seed 2/3 years, a 1 seed every 3 years or so, and a 4-6 seed every 4 years, and then 5-9 seed every 5 years or so.

I wouldn’t agree we were in the conversation in 2023. Really enjoyed the thought process here.

 

[JonathanW2]

Thought to seek opinions on annual expectations of our men’s basketball team. From my biased view, I believe considering all things (UK history, resources, financial commitment, fan support, national brand, etc) that it is a fair expectation to be in the National Championship conversation yearly. That doesn’t mean we win it yearly, but at least be in the consideration and conversation. What this translates to at a minimum is a recurring top 10 team with a realistic shot at winning a National Championship. The last 7 years with Cal and Pope have not even been in this ballpark…..am I wrong?

I agree.

To base it on the NCAA-T outcome is too simplistic. For example the 2014 team did not have a good year, but had a great tournament. Tubby's 2004 team with Hayes & Fitch & Daniels & Hawkins and Azubuike had a really good year, but a bad tournament. Those type of contrasts are going to happen in a OAD tournament setting. Injuries, guys going hot/cold, other teams going hot/cold, officiating are all factors that can easily influence a OAD tournament.

So yeah, my expectation every year is for UK to be one of the teams any logical person could look at going into the tournament and say "yeah, I could see this team winning it all". Doesn't mean we are the favorite, or one of the 3-4 favorites. But it also doesn't mean we are a long shot.

 

[Anon1751335390]

We haven't gotten a 1 seed since 2015.

 

[Eight_Banners]

I wouldn’t agree we were in the conversation in 2023. Really enjoyed the thought process here.

Yeah. I disagreed with myself there too. We were preseason #4, hung around top 25 most of the season. In the title talks early but not late.

That was a largely disappointing season with Tshiebwe returning for another year.

 

[BlueSince92]

I basically agree with everyone so far but I think it’s worth pointing out that the National Title hunt conversation and fact aren’t always the same thing. Some of Cal’s last years we had moderate rankings and hype and national conversation, but all the same we fans knew we were generally screwed against any strong Power 5/Power 6 school either home or away unless Cal caught a lucky break and we somehow squeaked by. Paper Tiger situations. I want to be in the conversation for realistic basketball reasons.

 

[UKCowboys]

Mike Krzyzewski first three seasons at Duke
38-47
Dan Hurley first three seasons at UCONN
50-37
Bruce Pearl first three years at Auburn
44-54
It takes time to build a winning program. And before anyone yaps about money, JMI has taken us from being favorites to also rans on two top 5 HS kids. Before anyone starts talking about fan support, other coaches see Pope take an empty roster to the S16, start this season missing 2-3 starters, and now 70% of the RR crowd wants him gone with some talking about harassing his wife and children. So, not so much. History and Brand don't mean anything to modern kids in todays world.
The SEC is the toughest conference in the country. If you want to set expectations for the program that high, I am all for it. But you have to BUILD IT. You can't take an empty roster, throw money at it, and buy a National Championship every year. It doesn't work that way and every coach knows it. Whether Pope is the guy or not, I dont know, but you have to pick a coach and stick with him to build a program.

 

[GoCATSGo77]

Mike Krzyzewski first three seasons at Duke
38-47
Dan Hurley first three seasons at UCONN
50-37
Bruce Pearl first three years at Auburn
44-54
It takes time to build a winning program. And before anyone yaps about money, JMI has taken us from being favorites to also rans on two top 5 HS kids. Before anyone starts talking about fan support, other coaches see Pope take an empty roster to the S16, start this season missing 2-3 starters, and now 70% of the RR crowd wants him gone with some talking about harassing his wife and children. So, not so much. History and Brand don't mean anything to modern kids in todays world.
The SEC is the toughest conference in the country. If you want to set expectations for the program that high, I am all for it. But you have to BUILD IT. You can't take an empty roster, throw money at it, and buy a National Championship every year. It doesn't work that way and every coach knows it. Whether Pope is the guy or not, I dont know, but you have to pick a coach and stick with him to build a program.

Duke and Auburn weren't built yet though when K and Pearl came on. Hurley sure...but UCONN had a few years of being terrible before him.

This is Kentucky. We shouldn't have to re-build the program from the bottom up. And we should have hired a coach with Final 4/national championship experience. Not someone who was a perennial 5 seed at BYU.

 

[UKCowboys]

Duke and Auburn weren't built yet though when K and Pearl came on. Hurley sure...but UCONN had a few years of being terrible before him.

This is Kentucky. We shouldn't have to re-build the program from the bottom up. And we should have hired a coach with Final 4/national championship experience. Not someone who was a perennial 5 seed at BYU.

When you let your program get to the point that there is not one player on the roster when the coach is hired, saying "This isn't Kentucky" doesn't change the fact that "This is a rebuilding job"...And maybe Pope shouldn't have been hired, but he was, and he deserves a fair chance, not, "well, we have all seen from our couches with our wealth of basketball knowledge that this guy can't coach. NEXT". If you think firing Pope today is going to make this an attractive job, you are wrong. Hurley, Donovan, Hell, even Drew thumped his nose at our money

 

[Ukwazoo3]

Duke and Auburn weren't built yet though when K and Pearl came on. Hurley sure...but UCONN had a few years of being terrible before him.

This is Kentucky. We shouldn't have to re-build the program from the bottom up. And we should have hired a coach with Final 4/national championship experience. Not someone who was a perennial 5 seed at BYU.

It's also comparing coaches who started in the non-NIL era vs a coach in the NIL era.

Hurley's 2nd year only had 2 double-digit losses.

Pearl's 2nd year was terrible, but he took over a program that hadn't had a winning season in 6 years.

Coach K's 2nd year was 44 years ago. How could we possibly compare anything today to something 44 years ago? The three-pointer wasn't even fully implemented until 1987.

Pope will get a third year, barring scandal. No one should be bothering him or his family. We will get a chance to see if he can do it, but I don't see a comparison here.

 

[Eight_Banners]

Duke and Auburn weren't built yet though when K and Pearl came on. Hurley sure...but UCONN had a few years of being terrible before him.

This is Kentucky. We shouldn't have to re-build the program from the bottom up. And we should have hired a coach with Final 4/national championship experience. Not someone who was a perennial 5 seed at BYU.

We knew when Calipari was hired that the day he left Kentucky would be in rebuild mode.

Here we are.

 

[Eight_Banners]

We knew when Calipari was hired that the day he left Kentucky would be in rebuild mode.

Here we are.

The only way to disagree with this is to say, "But NIL."

However, as important as good players are, roster continuity is possibly more important to championship success.

 

[Eight_Banners]

The only way to disagree with this is to say, "But NIL."

However, as important as good players are, roster continuity is possibly more important to championship success.

Just to give some facts to that claim, let's look at Cal's best seasons:

2009-10: 62.4% of minutes played and 56.7% of scoring return from 2008-09 roster

2011-12: 49.5% of minutes played and 54.2% of scoring return from 2010-11 roster

2014-15: 64.6% of minutes played and 59.3% of scoring return from 2013-14 roster

2016-17: 30.9% of minutes played and 24.2% of scoring return from 2015-16 roster

***Had 5 top-21 freshmen

Compare it with his worst teams:

2012-13: 7.1% of minutes played and 6.7% of scoring return from 2011-12 roster

2017-18: 11.6% of minutes played and 7.4% of scoring return from 2016-17 roster

2020-21: 7.6% of minutes played and 6.0% of scoring return from 2019-20 roster

2022-23: 42.9% of minutes played and 44.3% of scoring return from 2021-22 roster

***Had the forgettable freshman class of Cason Wallace and Chris Livingston

 

[Goingfor9]

Mike Krzyzewski first three seasons at Duke
38-47
Dan Hurley first three seasons at UCONN
50-37
Bruce Pearl first three years at Auburn
44-54
It takes time to build a winning program. And before anyone yaps about money, JMI has taken us from being favorites to also rans on two top 5 HS kids. Before anyone starts talking about fan support, other coaches see Pope take an empty roster to the S16, start this season missing 2-3 starters, and now 70% of the RR crowd wants him gone with some talking about harassing his wife and children. So, not so much. History and Brand don't mean anything to modern kids in todays world.
The SEC is the toughest conference in the country. If you want to set expectations for the program that high, I am all for it. But you have to BUILD IT. You can't take an empty roster, throw money at it, and buy a National Championship every year. It doesn't work that way and every coach knows it. Whether Pope is the guy or not, I dont know, but you have to pick a coach and stick with him to build a program.

A Barney sock account. Here’s the bottom line. We have been well below average for a long time. Any talk of titles has been ginned up by the coach where cal big pope. Cal was likely the biggest underachiever in ncaa history. It’s been 11 years since a Ff. 14 since a title. We haven’t sniffed a ff since 2017. There should be no discussion of 3 years blah blah blah. I mean when pope and he won’t ever make a ff but when pope is done and it’s 13 years from ff. You gonna keep hiring 3 year coaches? Before you know it it will be 20 years since a ff. UK needs the right coach very soon or we will revert to an average program like a Missouri or Tamu. That’s where Barney has put us. Pope needs to go after this season if we hope to be a relevant force in cbb. Another season like this and half the fans will tune out. A big chunk of bbn has already tuned out. Our ratings have fallen off big time. Ask espn.

 

[Old Blue Fart]

Mike Krzyzewski first three seasons at Duke
38-47
Dan Hurley first three seasons at UCONN
50-37
Bruce Pearl first three years at Auburn
44-54
It takes time to build a winning program. And before anyone yaps about money, JMI has taken us from being favorites to also rans on two top 5 HS kids. Before anyone starts talking about fan support, other coaches see Pope take an empty roster to the S16, start this season missing 2-3 starters, and now 70% of the RR crowd wants him gone with some talking about harassing his wife and children. So, not so much. History and Brand don't mean anything to modern kids in todays world.
The SEC is the toughest conference in the country. If you want to set expectations for the program that high, I am all for it. But you have to BUILD IT. You can't take an empty roster, throw money at it, and buy a National Championship every year. It doesn't work that way and every coach knows it. Whether Pope is the guy or not, I dont know, but you have to pick a coach and stick with him to build a program.

It is real tough to argue with your comments but as a life long UK fan, I can't really remember watching a team go into a game constantly showing a lack of effort and hustle.
Almost every game I watch a rebound fall between UK players who stand there while the opposing team player grabs the ball. This seems to happen way too much.

This morning I saw where Diabounte said they did not take the pre-game serious enough at Alabama.
How in the world could a team not go into a place like Alabama and not take them serious?

These issues repeating themselves is on the coach. There is no spinning that.
But with all this, there is no excuse for anyone to harass the coaches family nor him.

 

[UKCowboys]

A Barney sock account. Here’s the bottom line. We have been well below average for a long time. Any talk of titles has been ginned up by the coach where cal big pope. Cal was likely the biggest underachiever in ncaa history. It’s been 11 years since a Ff. 14 since a title. We haven’t sniffed a ff since 2017. There should be no discussion of 3 years blah blah blah. I mean when pope and he won’t ever make a ff but when pope is done and it’s 13 years from ff. You gonna keep hiring 3 year coaches? Before you know it it will be 20 years since a ff. UK needs the right coach very soon or we will revert to an average program like a Missouri or Tamu. That’s where Barney has put us. Pope needs to go after this season if we hope to be a relevant force in cbb. Another season like this and half the fans will tune out. A big chunk of bbn has already tuned out. Our ratings have fallen off big time. Ask espn.

I don't care about BBN tuning out or ratings and I sure as heck don’t care about what ESPN thinks.
I try and deal in reality. Reality is, whether I want him, you want him, or this board wants him or not, he isn't going anywhere this season. Folks creating 20 threads a day about the sky falling won't change it. Pope will be here through next season, no matter what. It is what it is

 

[UKCowboys]

It is real tough to argue with your comments but as a life long UK fan, I can't really remember watching a team go into a game constantly showing a lack of effort and hustle.
Almost every game I watch a rebound fall between UK players who stand there while the opposing team player grabs the ball. This seems to happen way too much.

This morning I saw where Diabounte said they did not take the pre-game serious enough at Alabama.
How in the world could a team not go into a place like Alabama and not take them serious?

These issues repeating themselves is on the coach. There is no spinning that.
But with all this, there is no excuse for anyone to harass the coaches family nor him.

I think this year is pretty much turning into a disaster. We could turn it around, but we need to get to work. I just think if you fire Pope today, people are going to make all these lists of their top candidates, and then MB is going to hire whoever his plan C was after Drew and Pope. If he were going to hire one of the other big names, he would have done it after Cal left. Want to fix the program? Fire MB

 

[preston-lemasterpiece]

I think this year is pretty much turning into a disaster. We could turn it around, but we need to get to work. I just think if you fire Pope today, people are going to make all these lists of their top candidates, and then MB is going to hire whoever his plan C was after Drew and Pope. If he were going to hire one of the other big names, he would have done it after Cal left. Want to fix the program? Fire MB

but if you're a coach, would you rather fill Cal's shoes? an iconic HOFer who revolutionized college recruiting

or Pope's?

it'll be easier this time around

 

[TFCat11]

Well, it was the expectation before players could receive $$$ compensation, so I’d safely say, yes, it should continue to be the expectation, and I’d argue, exponentially more so!

Look, Duke et al, are doing it, so UK should be as well! And the fact they are not, speaks directly to the poor decisions by the poor decision makers.

 

[JwUKFan11]

I expect UK to be ranked in the top 20 yearly with at least a 1 or 2 seed every 3-4 years at least. That doesn’t seem that crazy to me.

 

[UKCowboys]

but if you're a coach, would you rather fill Cal's shoes? an iconic HOFer who revolutionized college recruiting

or Pope's?

it'll be easier this time around

It would be easier because, in theory, there would still be a returning roster for the next coach. But if he isn't winning big a year and a half in, he will be on the hot seat. Proven fact

 

[Dward13]

We haven't gotten a 1 seed since 2015.

I don’t think UNC, Duke or Kansas have experienced a similar drought without at least a final four or a 1 seed since the field expanded to 64 teams 40 years ago. Theres really no excuse for that to happen at UK.

 

[rick64]

Since the 1995 NCAAT the lowest winning seed was #7 UConn in 2014 (been trying to forget about that one obviously). After that there are several #4 seeds. So probably ranked in that top 15 range gets you in the top 4 seedings.

 

[preston-lemasterpiece]

 

[UKWildcats1987]

Depends on what each individual fan views as competing. I don't think its that simple.

We had a 3 and a 2 seed two of the last three years of Cal but first crashed and burned when it mattered most n March. The 2022 team especially was a contender for the regular season when healthy.

Then you have 2014 and even 2011 to an extent that weren't impressive but went on legendary runs when it mattered.

 

[Anon1751335390]

View attachment 1122637

Non blue bloods like Gonzaga and Houston have been better than us since 2015.

 

[Old Blue Fart]

I think this year is pretty much turning into a disaster. We could turn it around, but we need to get to work. I just think if you fire Pope today, people are going to make all these lists of their top candidates, and then MB is going to hire whoever his plan C was after Drew and Pope. If he were going to hire one of the other big names, he would have done it after Cal left. Want to fix the program? Fire MB

You're right. Jumping up and firing the coach at this point would not be a good thing to do.
I still am hopeful we pull together and put on a run.

 

[Argonaut]

I think this year is pretty much turning into a disaster. We could turn it around, but we need to get to work. I just think if you fire Pope today, people are going to make all these lists of their top candidates, and then MB is going to hire whoever his plan C was after Drew and Pope. If he were going to hire one of the other big names, he would have done it after Cal left. Want to fix the program? Fire MB

Our only hope whether it’s this year or next year is boosters step in and have a coach in mind that they want to hire. Mitch Barnhart nor his lackey of a hand-selected AD cannot be the ones to choose the next coach.