Lot of noise that PS can lose this weekend and still be assured of a CFP berth if they win out. I think the BIG gets 3 guaranteed spots in the CFP. Assume PS, Oregon, OSU, and Indiana all end up with one loss (OSU beats PS, Indiana and Ducks). Who do you think gets screwed out of that third spot?
Indiana and Penn State’s CFP chances
- Thread starter Bones80
- Start date
Indiana. And it wouldn't even be a close decision.
That said, it is not beyond reason that if things break the right way nationally the B10 could get four in (not likely, but could happen depending on which teams from other conferences get knocked out - and if ND takes another loss and doesn't make the 12)
To answer you question - Indiana gets screwed out. Because the SEC teams will pass them, given your scenario.
If PSU beats OSU this weekend, they could go undefeated into the BIGCG. I think that is more plausible than Indiana going undefeated (holy crap, did I just type those words?).
At this juncture, OSU has the most to lose.
If PSU beats OSU this weekend, they could go undefeated into the BIGCG. I think that is more plausible than Indiana going undefeated (holy crap, did I just type those words?).
At this juncture, OSU has the most to lose.
Indiana has both Michigan schools, OSU, and Purdue. Not out of the realm of possibility that they win 3/4. They don’t make the BIG CG but are media darlings with an 11-1 record. Say PS loses only to OSU, doesn’t make the BIG CG and end 11-1. Are we sure we get in over Indiana?
there is zero chance that an 11-1 PSU team with its only loss to OSU does not get into the playoff
What happens if PSU loses to OSU but makes the B1G Championship and loses (to say Oregon)? Do they get in over a one loss Indiana? The team to watch here is ND IMO. And maybe Pitt - if they can run the table until the ACC Championship and maybe lose there to say Clemson, how many ACC teams get in (have Miami out there too)?
Indy has a weaker schedule but what if PSU loses to OSU by 10 and Indy only loses to them by 3?
Gary Danielson was on Maddog radio the other day and said Big 10 and SEC commissioners are going to make sure the losing team in a championship game don't get jumped by another team that does not play in a championship game. You can love him or hate him as a commentator but he is clued in on these type of things especially with his history announcing SEC games.
if PSU only has one loss and makes it to the CCG then that means that OSU lost to someone else, and if Indiana only has one loss then it wasn't them either so it would be Purdue, Northwestern or Michigan
that would probably still put PSU into the playoff and OSU out, or at least OSU would be competing with Indiana, OSU's second loss would be late in the season and would drop them more than PSU's loss to OSU and eventual B1G championship game I would think
While it wasn’t presented as a scenario, in my mind the worst (internal B1G only) option for a 1-loss PSU would be a loss this weekend, and then IU beats tOSU.
I wouldn’t be betting my life on 1-loss PSU being above a 2-loss tOSU under the potential circumstances.
I’m as confident as can be that PSU would be selected above IU as a 1-loss team were all the results to all go according to the odds.
I wouldn’t be betting my life on 1-loss PSU being above a 2-loss tOSU under the potential circumstances.
I’m as confident as can be that PSU would be selected above IU as a 1-loss team were all the results to all go according to the odds.
That's a great scenario for the Big Ten, as it pretty much locks up 4 teams in the playoff (assuming Indiana doesn't end up with 2 losses elsewhere...and even then, they might be ok if the loss is in the Title game).
If we lose to OSU, we need for them to lose again or they will have tie breaker. But if we lose to them and say IU beats them, but still loses a game. They may have tie breaker over us.
Just win baby!!!!!!
I wouldn't bet my life on anything, but there is almost no way a 2 loss OSU gets in ahead of a 1 loss PSU.
This would be my dream scenario. PSU beats OSU to knock them out of playoff contention. However, if OSU were to beat PSU, but then lose to Indiana, I still think OSU is on the outside looking in with 2 losses.
Pitt plays Clemson in a couple of weeks. The winner will play Miami in the ACC Championship game unless there are some crazy upsets, which is unlikely in my opinion.
At what point are conference championship games eliminated? Right now, they're useless save the 'easiest' way to determine an automatic bid. Still, you could do it without a CCG as has been done in the past (SOS, W/L, etc.).
How could you overlook $$$?
That is the only reason they were ever implemented anyway.
While they are currently used as such, you certainly don't need them in order to determine "automatic bid" (conferences had tie-breaker criteria in place for generations - and used them to determine the champion to go to their designated Bowl game)
(FWIW: I agree that they are extraneous from a competition standpoint - and that if the powers that be actually cared about student-athletes/academics, they would be done away with relatively soon)
One upside to conference champ qualifiers to the playoff is that it essentially mandates inclusion of one G5 team. If they went by straight rankings, the G5 would rarely get a sniff.
I think a second loss would knock OSU out of the playoff because they wouldn’t get benefit of B1G championship game having lost to Oregon and PSU/another team.
A PSU loss to OSU needs to be competitive. Can’t get curb stomped and leave things at the whims of the selection committee. PSU wouldn’t have a signature win to counter a bad loss against the only top team they play.
Even if they lost by 10-14 points to the #4 team they won't drop far. With SEC and other teams playing each other later this season it would work out.
I think the problem for both BIG and SEC is they were assuming 8 teams from their conferences - so 4 from all others . that means 1 G5, 1 ACC, 1 BIg12 and ND or another Big12/ACC team. if u are in the BIG or SEC with 2 losses you could easily be left out unless loss in CCG.
which scenario do u see for PSU:
- PSU Beats tOSU and runs table - 12-0. in obviously even if we lose in CCG.
- PSU loses to tOSU and runs table. 11-1 should be in depending on Indy, tOSU and Oregon.
- PSU beats tOSU but loses another non CCG game. 11-1 and probably in.
- PSU loses to tOSU and loses another non CCG game. 10-2 dicey depends on other teams. If the BIG got 4 teams possible we make as 10-2 team but losing to any of the non-name brand teams down the stretch will create bad mojo with committee.
I’m betting on option 2 and PSUs hard luck history and big fan base getting them into the CFP.
The conf championships at least have teams like the acc etc actually play someone tough In their conference. I’m tired of acc and big twelve getting passes in the regular season by having an east in conference rotation. This is why conf championships should be important and if you lose especially by a lot it hurts your end ranking.
Osu still has psu Indiana and Michigan. Who is to say they run that table.
Osu still has psu Indiana and Michigan. Who is to say they run that table.