Intermat Preseason '25-'26 Rankings

[Tom McAndrew]

were released. They can be found at the below link. Keep this statement from Intermat in mind when looking at the rankings:

"These rankings will be updated at least once, perhaps twice, before the first matches. There are plenty of coaches I've spoken with who are uncertain about weight changes and have multiple rankable wrestlers vying for the starting role. So, there could be a lot of movement before November."

Also, this qualifier on their rankings:

"Remember, we don't rank true freshmen and there are definitely some that will likely make a significant impact this season. Even trophy contenders like Penn State and Oklahoma State could have prominent true freshmen starting, so they could shake up the team rankings. As usual, I tend to be conservative with redshirt freshmen (though there are some exceptions)."

NCAA DI

09/05/2025

intermatwrestle.com

PSUers in the Rankings:

125: Luke Lilledahl - 3rd
133: No PSUer
141: Braeden Davis - 9th
149: Shayne Van Ness - 2nd
157: Tyler Kasak - 2nd
165: Mitchell Mesenbrink - 1st
174: Levi Haines - 1st
184: Rocco Welsh - 2nd
197: Josh Barr - 1st
285: Cole Mirasola - 12th
Tournament: PSU - 1st
Dual: PSU - 1st

 

[Cali_Nittany1]

Intermat team points

1	Penn State	Big Ten	125.5
2	Nebraska	Big Ten	94
3	Iowa State	Big 12	86.5
4	Iowa	Big Ten	79
5	Ohio State	Big Ten	64.5
6	NC State	ACC	61.5
7	Lehigh	EIWA	45.5
8	Oklahoma State	Big 12	41
9	Michigan	Big Ten	40
10	Virginia Tech	ACC	39.5

 

[Roar More]

Intermat team points

1	Penn State	Big Ten	125.5
2	Nebraska	Big Ten	94
3	Iowa State	Big 12	86.5
4	Iowa	Big Ten	79
5	Ohio State	Big Ten	64.5
6	NC State	ACC	61.5
7	Lehigh	EIWA	45.5
8	Oklahoma State	Big 12	41
9	Michigan	Big Ten	40
10	Virginia Tech	ACC	39.5

Just imagine the Cowboy angst at their ranking.

 

[Misalorales]

I

were released. They can be found at the below link. Keep this statement from Intermat in mind when looking at the rankings:

"These rankings will be updated at least once, perhaps twice, before the first matches. There are plenty of coaches I've spoken with who are uncertain about weight changes and have multiple rankable wrestlers vying for the starting role. So, there could be a lot of movement before November."

Also, this qualifier on their rankings:

"Remember, we don't rank true freshmen and there are definitely some that will likely make a significant impact this season. Even trophy contenders like Penn State and Oklahoma State could have prominent true freshmen starting, so they could shake up the team rankings. As usual, I tend to be conservative with redshirt freshmen (though there are some exceptions)."

NCAA DI

09/05/2025

intermatwrestle.com

PSUers in the Rankings:

125: Luke Lilledahl - 3rd
133: No PSUer
141: Braeden Davis - 9th
149: Shayne Van Ness - 2nd
157: Tyler Kasak - 2nd
165: Mitchell Mesenbrink - 1st
174: Levi Haines - 1st
184: Rocco Welsh - 2nd
197: Josh Barr - 1st
285: Cole Mirasola - 12th
Tournament: PSU - 1st

The thing about putting Kasak at 2 is that basically no one would pick Taylor over Kasak if they wrestled today. He's shown he's better multiple times. Just gotta get it done in March,if he is the starter.

Dual: PSU - 1st

 

[Lil Nicky Scarfo]

Intermat team points

1	Penn State	Big Ten	125.5
2	Nebraska	Big Ten	94
3	Iowa State	Big 12	86.5
4	Iowa	Big Ten	79
5	Ohio State	Big Ten	64.5
6	NC State	ACC	61.5
7	Lehigh	EIWA	45.5
8	Oklahoma State	Big 12	41
9	Michigan	Big Ten	40
10	Virginia Tech	ACC	39.5

I’m gonna make a bold prediction that the gap (again discounting bonus) will be larger than that.

But I like to live dangerously

 

[jack66]

With that line-up, we could sweep 149-197

Mitch, Levi and Barr are favorites
SVN's kriptoniyte has graduated, and he is 1-0 against Henson
Kasak's toughest challenge might be getting into the line-up
Rocco's defense will keep him in every match, but he'll need to add some offense to win it all

 

[Goggles Paisano]

The thing about putting Kasak at 2 is that basically no one would pick Taylor over Kasak if they wrestled today. He's shown he's better multiple times. Just gotta get it done in March,if he is the starter.

The only kid that has a chance of beating Kazak this year is on the same roster.

Heck, IMO Tyler was the best 157 in the country last year. If you go back and look at his Quarters loss at Nationals, it seems pretty clear he must have gone out the night before and had a large pizza and ice cream for dinner, then had to spend a few late night hours with the cut. He went out, got the takedown and then hit a serious wall. He was totally gassed in the second, and faded from there. Just watching him broken with his head on the mat to end that 1 point match was distressing and atypical for sure. I can't recall a single match where he faded to that extreme in the past two years. Something was seriously off with his gas tank, and it wasn't really discussed much, but that was not prime Kasak by any means.

It was definitely the worst Friday Nationals performance for the whole team in recent memory, both morning and evening sessions, with 7 total losses by my count.

Lilledahl was the other noticable aberration, losing to a lesser wrestler as a result of match mis-management IMO. I thought he too should have definitely been a national champ.

Maybe the whole team got food poisoning or something but it was a very strange Friday nonetheless.

Back to Kasak. Either he or PJ will be a national champ at season's end if healthy.

 

[Matter7172]

Maybe the whole team got food poisoning or something but it was a very strange Friday nonetheless.

The only good part about Friday night was that it set up what I still think was the best team performance ever on a Saturday morning at NCAAs.

 

[NoVaLion]

The only good part about Friday night was that it set up what I still think was the best team performance ever on a Saturday morning at NCAAs.

Certainly the best PSU performance on Saturday AM. OK State had a real good Saturday AM in 2013 in Des Moines.

 

[El_Jefe]

The thing about putting Kasak at 2 is that basically no one would pick Taylor over Kasak if they wrestled today. He's shown he's better multiple times. Just gotta get it done in March,if he is the starter.

Agreed. Taylor is the champ and therefore should be the 1 until he loses. And that will happen vs either Kasak or Duke.

 

[El_Jefe]

I’m gonna make a bold prediction that the gap (again discounting bonus) will be larger than that.

But I like to live dangerously

 

[Nitlion1986]

Certainly the best PSU performance on Saturday AM. OK State had a real good Saturday AM in 2013 in Des Moines.

A nice difference is PSU's Saturday run helped set the scoring record, and Okie State's Saturday run helped them finish 2nd and get close enough to PSU to scare the PSU faithful a little bit.

 

[Lil Nicky Scarfo]

 

[Matter7172]

Certainly the best PSU performance on Saturday AM. OK State had a real good Saturday AM in 2013 in Des Moines.

I have a DNP, 5th, DNP, Champ, 3rd, 3rd, Champ, DNP, 8th and 3rd for OSU in 2013. So nowhere even close to what PSU did in 2025.

 

[ScottishSteel]

The only good part about Friday night was that it set up what I still think was the best team performance ever on a Saturday morning at NCAAs.

I cannot recall specifics but that 2001 Minnesota team that also had 10 AAs didn't have a finalist; so I suspect they had a pretty good Saturday AM as well

 

[Tom McAndrew]

I cannot recall specifics but that 2001 Minnesota team that also had 10 AAs didn't have a finalist; so I suspect they had a pretty good Saturday AM as well

For Minny:

125: Leroy Vega
- he lost in the semis, then won the consi-semi and consi-final, to finish 3rd
133: Brett Lawrence
- he lost in the Round of 16, won 3 bouts in the consis, then lost in the consi-quarters, and then lost the 7/8 match to finish 8th
141: Chad Erikson
- he lost in the quarters, won 1 bout in the consis, then lost in the consi-quarters, and then lost the 7/8 match to finish 8th
149: Jared Lawrence
- he lost in the semis, then lost the consi-semi, and then lost the 5/6 match to finish 6th
157: Luke Becker
- he lost in the semis, then won the consi-semi, then lost the consi-final to finish 4th
165: Brad Pike
- he lost in the semis, then won the consi-semi, then lost the consi-final to finish 4th
174: Jacob Volkmann
- he lost in the quarters, then won 3 consis, then los the consi-final to finish 4th
184: Damion Hahn
- he lost his R1 match, then won 5 consis, then lost the consi-semi, then won the 5/6 match to finish 5th
197: Owen Elzen
- he lost in the semis, then won the consi-semi and the consi-final, to finish 3rd
285: Garrett Lowney
- he lost in the semis, then won the consi-semi and the consi-final to finish 3rd

 

[Matter7172]

I cannot recall specifics but that 2001 Minnesota team that also had 10 AAs didn't have a finalist; so I suspect they had a pretty good Saturday AM as well

It's kind of ironic, but about half the Minnesota guys lost their last match (six of the ten). They finished 3rd, 8th, 8th, 6th, 4th, 4th, 4th, 5th, 3rd and 3rd. So 2-0, 0-1, 0-1, 0-2, 1-1, 1-1, 1-1, 1-1, 2-0 and 2-0. Total of 10-8 for Saturday morning vs. PSU's 2-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-0, 2-0 and 2-0 or 11-1 total. I'm not counting Kerk's two MFFs.

 

[PennState1985]

The only kid that has a chance of beating Kazak this year is on the same roster.

Heck, IMO Tyler was the best 157 in the country last year. If you go back and look at his Quarters loss at Nationals, it seems pretty clear he must have gone out the night before and had a large pizza and ice cream for dinner, then had to spend a few late night hours with the cut. He went out, got the takedown and then hit a serious wall. He was totally gassed in the second, and faded from there. Just watching him broken with his head on the mat to end that 1 point match was distressing and atypical for sure. I can't recall a single match where he faded to that extreme in the past two years. Something was seriously off with his gas tank, and it wasn't really discussed much, but that was not prime Kasak by any means.

It was definitely the worst Friday Nationals performance for the whole team in recent memory, both morning and evening sessions, with 7 total losses by my count.

I watched that match from 25 yards away, and told the guy next to me that Tyler was the better wrestler in that bout but you can't overcome that many brainfarts and win at that level. I didn't notice the gassing as much as making poor decisions that he normally doesn't make.

 

[PennState1985]

It's kind of ironic, but about half the Minnesota guys lost their last match (six of the ten). They finished 3rd, 8th, 8th, 6th, 4th, 4th, 4th, 5th, 3rd and 3rd. So 2-0, 0-1, 0-1, 0-2, 1-1, 1-1, 1-1, 1-1, 2-0 and 2-0. Total of 10-8 for Saturday morning vs. PSU's 2-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-0, 2-0 and 2-0 or 11-1 total. I'm not counting Kerk's two MFFs.

10-8 versus 11-1.

 

[Matter7172]

If anyone starts getting nostalgic for the Sunderland years, they should just take a look at the 2001 AA's. That'll cure them quickly.

 

[Nitlion1986]

If anyone starts getting nostalgic for the Sunderland years, they should just take a look at the 2001 AA's. That'll cure them quickly.

The Sunderland years? 1990 - 1993!
Anything past 1993 was a combination of purgatory and hell.

 

[Tom McAndrew]

InterMat updated their rankings on 10/28. They can be viewed at:

https://intermatwrestle.com/rankings.html/ncaa-di-r54/

PSUers in their rankings:

125: Luke Lilledahl - 3rd
133: No PSUer
141: Braeden Davis - 9th
149: Shayne Van Ness - 1st
157: Tyler Kasak - 2nd
165: Mitchell Mesenbrink - 1st
174: Levi Haines - 1st
184: Rocco Welsh - 2nd
197: Josh Barr - 1st
285: Cole Mirasola - 12th
Tournament: PSU - 1st
Dual: PSU - 1st

Pretty much the same as the 9/5 rankings, except SVN moves up from 2nd to 1st @ 149

 

[GregPickel]

Where are Penn State wrestlers in the latest preseason rankings?

Penn State wrestling starts its 2025-2026 season against Oklahoma on Nov. 14. Here's where the Lions are in the preseason rankings.

www.on3.com

 

[Jim from Spicewood]

Where are Penn State wrestlers in the latest preseason rankings?

Penn State wrestling starts its 2025-2026 season against Oklahoma on Nov. 14. Here's where the Lions are in the preseason rankings.

www.on3.com

Good morning, Greg. Any news on Masanosuke Ono's eligibility?

 

[GregPickel]

Good morning, Greg. Any news on Masanosuke Ono's eligibility?

No, not yet.

 

[Random4598375]

When they add Ono or Blaze to 133, where will they slot in? I assume they won't change the top 3 of Byrd, Ayala, and Crookham, but would Blaze start at 4 over Zan Fugitt? Rankings tend to be conservative in their adjustments, but I'd take Blaze over everyone outside the top 3 right now.

 

[Corby2]

When they add Ono or Blaze to 133, where will they slot in? I assume they won't change the top 3 of Byrd, Ayala, and Crookham, but would Blaze start at 4 over Zan Fugitt? Rankings tend to be conservative in their adjustments, but I'd take Blaze over everyone outside the top 3 right now.

He has some matches against college kids already he beat Ramos and lost to Palmer a few years ago at Clarion. He's probably #4 or #5 like you said.

 

[Corby2]

Good morning, Greg. Any news on Masanosuke Ono's eligibility?

As of now it's still only 1 year.

 

[Misalorales]

As of now it's still only 1 year.

Is it still only one year, or no one is sure yet? I've not heard anyone state anything with confidence, but you're connected. Are you saying it's 1 year unless something changes OR no one actually knows yet so one year is what has been stated?

 

[Sunshine88!]

No, not yet.

Greg,
What day does the media talk with Cael ?

 

[GregPickel]

Greg,
What day does the media talk with Cael ?

It'll be Oklahoma week, so not this coming week before football plays Indiana, but instead early of the week it is at Michigan State while PSU wrestling is hosting Oklahoma Friday night at the BJC.

 

[jack66]

It'll be Oklahoma week, so not this coming week before football plays Indiana, but instead early of the week it is at Michigan State while PSU wrestling is hosting Oklahoma Friday night at the BJC.

Maybe we will get to see the official roster by then.

 

[jtothemfp]

I have a DNP, 5th, DNP, Champ, 3rd, 3rd, Champ, DNP, 8th and 3rd for OSU in 2013. So nowhere even close to what PSU did in 2025.

So no Sat morning action for OkSt's 3 DNPs and 2 Champs, leaving 5 eligible Sat morning competitors
(PSU 2025 checked in with 2 Champs, one 2nd and no DNPs, which gave them 7 Sat morning grapplers)

But their three 3rds had all dropped from the semis: Dieringer, Caldwell & Gelogaev, so they totaled 6-0.
Morrison won in the Fri Bloodround, then went 2-1 on Sat to finish 5th
Rosholt won in the Fri Bloodround, but then went 0-2 for 8th

Total of 8-3, for way better than 2001 Minny (shown at 10-8 here elsewhere)
And got fairly close to PSU 2025's 11-1 (sans MFF), with 2 fewer competitors

Decent memory pull, @NoVaLion !

 

[Biffkin]

InterMat updated their rankings on 10/28. They can be viewed at:

https://intermatwrestle.com/rankings.html/ncaa-di-r54/

PSUers in their rankings:

125: Luke Lilledahl - 3rd
133: No PSUer
141: Braeden Davis - 9th
149: Shayne Van Ness - 1st
157: Tyler Kasak - 2nd
165: Mitchell Mesenbrink - 1st
174: Levi Haines - 1st
184: Rocco Welsh - 2nd
197: Josh Barr - 1st
285: Cole Mirasola - 12th
Tournament: PSU - 1st
Dual: PSU - 1st

Pretty much the same as the 9/5 rankings, except SVN moves up from 2nd to 1st @ 149

What's the skinny on Ono completing.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

So no Sat morning action for OkSt's 3 DNPs and 2 Champs, leaving 5 eligible Sat morning competitors
(PSU 2025 checked in with 2 Champs, one 2nd and no DNPs, which gave them 7 Sat morning grapplers)

But their three 3rds had all dropped from the semis: Dieringer, Caldwell & Gelogaev, so they totaled 6-0.
Morrison won in the Fri Bloodround, then went 2-1 on Sat to finish 5th
Rosholt won in the Fri Bloodround, but then went 0-2 for 8th

Total of 8-3, for way better than 2001 Minny (shown at 10-8 here elsewhere)
And got fairly close to PSU 2025's 11-1 (sans MFF), with 2 fewer competitors

Decent memory pull, @NoVaLion !

Sorry to burst everyone's bubble, but the most wins in the consolation semis, 3rd, 5th and 7th place matches combined ("Saturday morning session") belongs to the 1965 Iowa State Cyclones who went 12-2 to take five 3rds, one 4th and one 5th.

2025 PSU finishes second at 11-3 (sorry, but I have to include the MFF).

2001 Minnesota finishes third at 10-8.

 

[Corby2]

Is it still only one year, or no one is sure yet? I've not heard anyone state anything with confidence, but you're connected. Are you saying it's 1 year unless something changes OR no one actually knows yet so one year is what has been stated?

NCAA said 1 year and they will keep trying for another

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

Based on the new Intermat rankings I have it like this.

All-Americans
With Henson taking a redshirt, Van Ness' chances of AAing go up 10%.



Though you may want to focus on the Flo rankings. While they updated their rankings today, and inexplicably left Henson in, they do have Blaze ranked at 133 meaning based on Flo the prediction is 7.5 AAs.

The Chase For 10 x 2
Unfortunately, until Intermat ranks someone from PSU at 133 the odds of 10 AAs is capped at zero. So let's use Flo instead.

But let's go Flo one better and assume that when they get around to fixing their 149 rankings (I emailed them) that Van Ness will slot in at #1. If that is the case, the odds 0 through 10 AAs looks a little something like this.



The Score
Finally, lets take a look at expected scoring. Again, I am going with modified Flo for this one.

Still some work to do to break the record.

 

[Col]

Based on the new Intermat rankings I have it like this.

All-Americans
With Henson taking a redshirt, Van Ness' chances of AAing go up 10%.



Though you may want to focus on the Flo rankings. While they updated their rankings today, and inexplicably left Henson in, they do have Blaze ranked at 133 meaning based on Flo the prediction is 7.5 AAs.

The Chase For 10 x 2
Unfortunately, until Intermat ranks someone from PSU at 133 the odds of 10 AAs is capped at zero. So let's use Flo instead.

But let's go Flo one better and assume that when they get around to fixing their 149 rankings (I emailed them) that Van Ness will slot in at #1. If that is the case, the odds 0 through 10 AAs looks a little something like this.



The Score
Finally, lets take a look at expected scoring. Again, I am going with modified Flo for this one.

Still some work to do to break the record.

Couple quick questions about your methodology:
1. Assume you used a normal distribution curve for your AA prediction based on flo rankings or did that happen due to your earlier research where you determined the chance to AA based on seed. If it is the later (I think it is but not sure) you can do some really interesting predictions. For example I am curious if bonus points could fall into the same pattern?
2. It would be interesting to see who is the most underperforming team. You would want a team that at least was suppose to do pretty well. A a guess I would say the cut off would be teams whose highest probability was at least 4 aa's.
3. We always hear (and I think rightfully so) that preseason rankings are meaningless. I think with your method and data you could show exactly how much difference there is between a prediction using pre-season rankings vs final rankings.

As always your posts help paint the picture of how lucky we are.....

 

[Goggles Paisano]

What's the skinny on Ono completing.

He's too skinny for 149

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

Couple quick questions about your methodology:
1. Assume you used a normal distribution curve for your AA prediction based on flo rankings or did that happen due to your earlier research where you determined the chance to AA based on seed. If it is the later (I think it is but not sure) you can do some really interesting predictions. For example I am curious if bonus points could fall into the same pattern?
2. It would be interesting to see who is the most underperforming team. You would want a team that at least was suppose to do pretty well. A a guess I would say the cut off would be teams whose highest probability was at least 4 aa's.
3. We always hear (and I think rightfully so) that preseason rankings are meaningless. I think with your method and data you could show exactly how much difference there is between a prediction using pre-season rankings vs final rankings.

As always your posts help paint the picture of how lucky we are.....

Let's nerd it up in here.

1. I use the individual probabilities and an algebraic expansion to come up with the probabilities of each outcome. For PSU the equation looks like this right now:

(0.829+0.171X)(0.343+0.657X)(0.47+0.53X)(0.981818182+0.018181818X)(0.901+0.099X)(0.981818182+0.018181818X)(0.981818182+0.018181818X)(0.829+0.171X)(0.981818182+0.018181818X)(0.235+0.765X)

Where the first number in each parenthetical is the individual AA probability for each weight and the second number is one minus the probability.

After expansion it look like:

8.42712E-11X^10+1.99312E-8X^9+1.86001E-6X^8+0.00008X^7+0.00202X^6+0.02302X^5+0.12695X^4+0.32809X^3+0.34772X^2+0.15029X+0.02179

The individual coefficients above are the probabilities of each event, 0 through 10 AAs.

Bonus Points and advance/place points follow similar patterns but with very different magnitudes. First place typically earns 3.1x the advance/place points of eighth place and 2.7x the bonus points. The ratios get more extreme at lower places.



2. I am planning on figuring out who is the most under and over performing team of all time now that I have individual match data. I just haven't done it yet. But in the years I started doing this the 2024 NC State team had a stunningly bad tournament. They were projected to finish second with 94.1 points, instead they finished tied for eleventh with 49.5 points (-44.6). That has to be in the running for worst tournament ever. By comparison, last year Virginia Tech was the worst performer at -23.8, dropping them from an expected 5th to an actual 11th.

3. Yes, I just have not done it yet