Luck might be overrated but only because he's hyped so much. He is really good though. He looked like crap last night of course but the hype around him isn't because of how he played last night, it's because of all the games he played well.
In the big picture I don't think Luck is their problem, I think it's most of the rest of the team, crappy secondary, crappy o-line, etc. I'm not sure the management of the Colts know what they're doing and valuable Luck years are passing without a Super Bowl. In not too many years they're going to have to pay Luck a lot more and when that happens they'll have less money to pay good players on the rest of the team.
Luck has been hyped so much that if he doesn't win at least one Super Bowl in his career he's going to be considered a big disappointment. But the Colts, with basically the same team they had the year before they drafted Luck, went from 2-14 to 11-5 with Luck at QB. He's legit.
Geno is just a borderline QB, so far at least. He's not in a position to be getting knocked out of a starting job because a teammate hit him. He was going to be the regular Jets starting QB this year. Now it wouldn't surprise me if he ended up being nobodys regular starting QB ever again. He's not good enough to be doing dumb stuff, at least so far.