This is the correct way of looking at it. It makes no difference if UT beats us by more in Knoxville than they did last year in Lexington. It makes no difference if Alabama beats the crap out of us when Auburn barely pulled out the win. They are all losses and count the same at the end of the year when we either have a losing season that ends in November vs at least a break even season where we continue until the bowl game in December. Florida, UofL and UGA will probably all still be a losses. No difference. Southern Miss may or may not be a tougher game than Lafayette but it should still be a win. Missouri may or may not be a tougher game at their place but no way that out weighs the fact that Vandy, Miss St. and USCjr should be easier wins.More winnable games at home this year than last year makes this a better schedule IMO. More of the games we are likely to lose are on the road - doesn't matter as much.
Very good analysis Wildcard.Steel's 2015 pre-season SOS for UK was #42. The final SOS was #64 (most likely due to pre-season Top 10 AU's on field mediocrity).
His 2016 pre-season SOS is #43. I don't see much difference there
His 2015 home field adjusted Plus/Minus rankings suggested a 5-7 season with UK a double digit 'dawg in 3 games (AU, MSU and @GA).
His 2016 home field adjusted Plus/Minus rankings suggest a 5-7 season with UK a double digit 'dawg in 4 games (@ FL, @ AL, @ TN and @ UofL).
I don't see too much difference there either, especially considering that leaves 8 "winnable games", 7 of which will be at home.
The 2014 second half collapse was due mainly to the fact that 5 of the last 6 opponents finished in the AP Top 25. The 1-6 finish last season was far more puzzling and troubling with only MSU and TN finishing in the Top 25.
Peace
...I think in a nutshell it is accurate to say that last year's schedule set up better for us to potentially win 8 or 9 games but this year's schedule actually sets up better than last year's for us to win 6 or 7.
All in all, the schedules are about the same from year to year. The difference is going to be how much UK improves rather than how hard the competition is going to be.
Love the enthusiasm.Of course the schedule is harder this year vs. last year...it would be nonsense to argue otherwise.
Tougher games by far:
1. Southern Miss replacing La Lafeyette (or any OOC foe). They are better than anything else. UK should still win but nonetheless...the game is harder.
2. UL on road vs. UL at home last year...UL is going be better this year vs. last year. Lamar Jackson should only get better and won games on athleticism alone for UL.
3. Alabama on road v.s Auburn at home last year. Auburn was a very winnable game...now that game is a very low shot at winning this year.
4. UT on road vs. UT at home....UT brings virtually 90% of their starters back and it's on the road. That game wasn't very winnable last year...UK has very low shot at winning this year.
5. UF was a winnable game at home with a new coachng staff for UF...I see UK having little shot of winning in the 'Swamp'.
Push:
1. Vandy on road vs. Vandy at home. UK lost a game I think we were more talanted last year. Vandy brings back a ton of 2 deep but the game transitions to Lexington. I think it's about the same odds as last year IMO.
2. UGA..UGA was a mess last year for a team that was preseason top 10 (yet still won 11 games). New coach but still a talent gap IMO. even though the game as not in Athens vs. Lexington...I just don't see this game being much different than last year.
3. Mizzou...it goes to a road game which may make it harder...but Mizzou outside of 2 very good defensive players..looks very poor talent wise across the board.
Easier:
1. For sure Miss St is looking to be an easier game. At home and no more Dak Prescott
2. USCjr is hard to call. At least it's at home again.
It's not the schedule. THE PROBLEM IS HOW WEAK WE ARE AGAINST IT.
people pumping up Southern Miss forget that this time last year we were in fear of a ULL team that was rolling into 2015 with 4 straight seasons of 8 wins/4 straight bowls. Southern Miss had a good 2015. Pretty dredful program for many years before that. dont forget their head coach bolted a week before spring practices even began.
IMO claiming they are without a doubt a more difficult opponent than ULL is dubious
I totally agree about MSU and Mizzou. I would not exactly call a 7 win regular season "great" but it is possible and, most importantly, would represent the "big step forward" everyone wants to see this year.I see at least 5 home wins. I think the season really hinges on Miss State at home and Mizzou on the road. Both teams should be worse than last year. These two games have the potential to take the season from good to great.
This is the correct way of looking at it. It makes no difference if UT beats us by more in Knoxville than they did last year in Lexington. It makes no difference if Alabama beats the crap out of us when Auburn barely pulled out the win. They are all losses and count the same at the end of the year when we either have a losing season that ends in November vs at least a break even season where we continue until the bowl game in December. Florida, UofL and UGA will probably all still be a losses. No difference. Southern Miss may or may not be a tougher game than Lafayette but it should still be a win. Missouri may or may not be a tougher game at their place but no way that out weighs the fact that Vandy, Miss St. and USCjr should be easier wins.
I get what yer saying, but i think there are more winnable games this year than last...making the sched better in my mind as far as results.Of course the schedule is harder this year vs. last year...it would be nonsense to argue otherwise.
Tougher games by far:
1. Southern Miss replacing La Lafeyette (or any OOC foe). They are better than anything else. UK should still win but nonetheless...the game is harder.
2. UL on road vs. UL at home last year...UL is going be better this year vs. last year. Lamar Jackson should only get better and won games on athleticism alone for UL.
3. Alabama on road v.s Auburn at home last year. Auburn was a very winnable game...now that game is a very low shot at winning this year.
4. UT on road vs. UT at home....UT brings virtually 90% of their starters back and it's on the road. That game wasn't very winnable last year...UK has very low shot at winning this year.
5. UF was a winnable game at home with a new coachng staff for UF...I see UK having little shot of winning in the 'Swamp'.
Push:
1. Vandy on road vs. Vandy at home. UK lost a game I think we were more talanted last year. Vandy brings back a ton of 2 deep but the game transitions to Lexington. I think it's about the same odds as last year IMO.
2. UGA..UGA was a mess last year for a team that was preseason top 10 (yet still won 11 games). New coach but still a talent gap IMO. even though the game as not in Athens vs. Lexington...I just don't see this game being much different than last year.
3. Mizzou...it goes to a road game which may make it harder...but Mizzou outside of 2 very good defensive players..looks very poor talent wise across the board.
Easier:
1. For sure Miss St is looking to be an easier game. At home and no more Dak Prescott
2. USCjr is hard to call. At least it's at home again.
i generally stick with numbers but I have a "gut feeling" people are undervaluing MSU this year. Mullen has posted only 1 losing season in 7 years and has a 7 game win streak going against the Cats. And 5 of those seasons came without Prescott. Now this is not like the losing streaks to FL and TN but it has reestablished MSU as the series leader. I won't deny that the Prescott years were the best and he took them from "average" to "above average".I agree Miss St. will be an easier game, they can't replace prescot, USC could be easier too, but they are very high on a frosh qb who is very mobile but lost their best defender I think it will likely be a push game. But how do you see Vandy being an easier game? They return almost everyone from a very stout defense, have a good RB, not a big play guy but a grinder type, is it because it's at home?
i generally stick with numbers but I have a "gut feeling" people are undervaluing MSU this year. Mullen has posted only 1 losing season in 7 years and has a 7 game win streak going against the Cats. And 5 of those wins came without Prescott. Now this is not like the losing streaks to FL and TN but it has reestablished MSU as the series leader. I won't deny that the Prescott years were the best and he took them from "average" to "above average".
Lots of personnel losses this year, but they have apparently recruited well the past 5 years with 3 of those classes in the Top 25 and the others #31 and #38. While not a threat to the ALs, FLs and LSUs but it probably near the top among the "non-elite" programs. Furthermore they have the program momentum of 6 consecutive winning seasons. I'm just not sure they are going to fall off the cliff.
As for Vandy, they have shown, time and time again, they can be a tough out for UK. I think this is due, in part, that over the years they have come to a belief that they can beat UK, something I'm not really sure they "feel" when playing other SEC programs. There is nothing "easy" about winning at UK but, IMO, there are 4 SEC games that are on the table for taking (@ SC, Vandy, MSU and @ MO). If the program is where most think it is they should be able to take 3 of those 4.
BTW, I enjoy your posts, especially regarding "the rest" of the SEC.
Peace
I agree Miss St. will be an easier game, they can't replace prescot, USC could be easier too, but they are very high on a frosh qb who is very mobile but lost their best defender I think it will likely be a push game. But how do you see Vandy being an easier game? They return almost everyone from a very stout defense, have a good RB, not a big play guy but a grinder type, is it because it's at home?
I agree Miss St. will be an easier game, they can't replace prescot, USC could be easier too, but they are very high on a frosh qb who is very mobile but lost their best defender I think it will likely be a push game. But how do you see Vandy being an easier game? They return almost everyone from a very stout defense, have a good RB, not a big play guy but a grinder type, is it because it's at home?
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I Don't want to argue with you on the first two games, but I really don't like Muschamp, how did he get another SEC HC job? From his sideline rants where I thought he was going to bite his own players head off (literally) I don't think he should be coaching anywhere. Even Joker was able to bring in two top ten recruiting classes in his two years as the RC there, LOL. Seemed like a very reasonable guy at the recent interviews though, maybe he learned something, but it is hard to teach old dogs new tricks, just ask me.
Vandy doesn't have to be an easier game, they shouldn't have even been in the game last year, we had all kinds of chances to win that game, lots of mistakes by the players AND coaches there. Vandy scored three TDs on us, one on an interception return, one on a fumble recovery at our five yard line, and a "trick" play they don't even allow in Pop Warner, outlawed with the same heavy emphasis (more really) as headhunting on calling it if there is ANY doubt about it being legal. In any case, NONE really scored by their offense, and we were clearly a better team that day, IMO.
Yes, their D should be better, but I don't think any offense in the nation "should" improve any more than ours does this year, and I am really looking forward to a big improvement in our coaching, I even think our D will be improved------the one that essentially held them scoreless last year.
Is their "grinder" better than Boom, and do they have anything like the depth we have at RB?
And then you do have them losing the home field advantage and us gaining it. And then our players and coaches should have a lot of motivation for this game after last year, if we can't beat Vandy at home then we have a very long road ahead of us, despite the recent gains we are still behind most other SEC teams talent wise.