There are other factors besides "who the coach is" and NIL. Location is a major factor to kids. Some 19 year olds want to stay close to home. Some don't want to go somewhere north that gets a lot of snow. Some want to go somewhere where there is "lots to do" instead of in the middle of a corn field.
Visibility is another factor. Being on a team that has all of their games televised on a decent network is a big draw for a school in a major conference. Seeing NBA players that went to a school helps regardless of who the coach was.
Lastly, facilities play a part. What the housing, weight room, practice facility, etc look like. Where home games are played can be the deciding factor.
Coach and NIL may play a big part these days, but to say that they're the only things that matter is naive.