It is all settled on the mat anyway. Always has - always will!
Kasak to RS / PJ Duke to go at 157
- Thread starter WDMHawk72
- Start date
Maybe so. I guess the bigger question would be what would the predicted scores be if you used a dozen or so guys similarly ranked with a similar record and amount of years wrestled. I don’t feel like even beginning to do that, but you sure seem to like going down the statistics rabbit hole. Feel free to do that comparison and give us the results. If the scores are similar, we can assume having zero matches basically defaults you to getting whooped. If some scores are close or he even wins some, than the algorithm needs to be questioned…
You have read the room correctly. Unfortunately I am on a road trip and didn't bring my computer. The bigger problem is presedence. High schoolers are coming in with greater and greater achievements making it impossible to find enough comps to make a valid statement. The best we can do is say that the old way doesn't work with the new guys at the high end.
Unless MM is having trouble with the cut to 165, which no one has said he is but I have no idea myself of course, then I think he's probably going to want to stay close to 74kg and not move up.
I hear ya. But, strictly from a math perspective, what factor do you add to the algorithm for kids that haven’t wrestled an official college match? Where do you start and where do you stop? Even then, phenoms aren’t gauranteed to win their first official matches. Ask Mark Hall…granted he did at least have unofficial matches before that.
And Carter Starocci.
i am not saying preicting a lose is unreasonable. If it is going to happen it is most likely to happy when the experience is new. But predicting the least likely score possible is silly. And a poor algo design. But it is an edge case. These things happen. And when they do you fix the algo.
But, again, what do you add and how? Assign a number to a 4x state champ? Assign a number to a world level medalist? What weight did they do it at? I just don’t know where you start or stop? I mean even the medalist thing is in a different wrestling style. Granted most with that resume do very well in college, but, man, the point of it all is to remove all bias and I don’t know how you assign a special value to an incoming freshman, no matter how good, without some sort of bias…
I highly doubt MM would bump up approaching an Olympic year. His eyes are set on 74kg
Must be these guys first experience with Wrestlestat. They don't mind being mocked
To be clear, I love EVERY aspect of Wrestlestat. I don’t think there is a better database for DI wrestling. Even FLO and Intermat are way behind. Calling them out for some outlier rankings or predictions simply shows that those doing the calling out don’t understand how the site works and what it actually provides…
They should just use their algo instead of an override for freshmen. All the incoming freshmen get a 1200 Elo. Someone with a 1220 Elo they have losing 11-7. The 19-0 score is what makes zero sense. Not the idea one or both would lose.
Gotcha. Then, wouldn’t the problem with that now have guys that would get beat 19-0, losing matches 11-7…because MOST freshmen would get smashed right out of the gate, wouldn’t they?
Damn bro - the argument NEVER stops. Are you an attorney??
Your challenge is to find a single 19-0 match since we went to 3 point takedowns. Then we can talk about "would get beat 19-0"
You will never, I mean never, get the last word in with MSU.
The thing is, I wasn’t even trying to argue here. For the most part I was agreeing with him about the site. I am just trying to point out that there isn’t a simple fix. If you change it from zero to 1200 for the few top level freshmen you are still raising it that high for every freshman, even those that are truly undeserving.
To be fair most of them would get pinned before the score got there or been given a few free escapes in the process. But, they most certainly would get throttled very similar to a 19-0 beat down.
Embrace weakness. The government has programs for you.
Whoa, that looked scary! Levi got head butted in the chin in a clash. Was flat on the mat for a moment.
Cleared to continue. Now doing Levi things.
Cleared to continue. Now doing Levi things.
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Yeah. Tuned in to watch them destroy OU on BTN.
He looked KO...but came back out and got the pinfall!
He is starting to get it.
"But, they most certainly would get throttled very similar to a 19-0 beat down."
Nevermind.
Van Ness beat a kid 20-1 tonight. Pretty close to the 19-0
I get that you are hung up on the 19 and zero being scored in the same match. But, would you be as hung up if it picked a win by fall in 7 seconds? Both are about as unlikely, but both are possible and just because, in reality we know how good a very select few are going into DI for the first time, a large number of the rest going into DI for the first time, probably have the highest chances of losing that way out of just about any DI wrestler, even if those odds are very small….
Upsets happen all the time. At least give yourself an opportunity. Maybe that happens on the big stage — see Bubba pinning Taylor in the NCAA finals.
Connor Mirasola destroyed the #8 guy tonight. He’s a surefire AA but he’s passing on accolades and an opportunity to beat Barr.
Both those things can happen. Predicting either will happen is the mistake.
Because I care I will help you understand probability in practice. Every time any wrestler in D1 wins by a score of 19-0 I will give you $100 and every time a true freshman is involve in a match with any other score you give me $1.
As crazy as it seems, there is even a scenario where a wrestler could win 23-0. While up 14-0 Wrestler A takes his opponent down directly to his back in near fall criteria, making it 17-0, gets a four count and then his opponent cries out in pain while simultaneously punching Wrestler A, causing the ref to stop the match. The four back points are then awarded along with one additional point for his opponent signaling an injury while still in near fall criteria. Additionally, one penalty point is awarded, thus making the final score 23-0! Here are the rules:
Art. 11. Injury — After Four-Point Near Fall Criterion Met. When a criterion for a four-point near fall are met, and a match is stopped for an injury, the defensive wrestler indicates an injury or has excessive bleeding, an additional point shall be awarded to the offensive wrestler.
Art. 12. Assessing Penalty Points in Near fall Situations. Points for unnecessary roughness, unsportsmanlike conduct, technical violations or illegal holds committed by the defensive wrestler during near fall situations shall be added to points earned by the offensive wrestler. In addition, wrestling shall continue during a violation(s) by the defensive wrestler if the referee determines no risk of injury exists.
For this I will up the payout to $200
Lololol! He'll argue with you forever about this but he won't take that bet. I be willing to make it $1000 versus five dollars.
Let's make it more interesting what's up at the $10,000 every time a world gold medalist gets teched 19 nothing in his first match in college versus if he doesn't we get paid 100?
Well let's make it 100,000 versus $1000 a world gold medalist U 17 or U 20 gets tacked by 19 nothing or more, allowing no points mind you. Will pay $100,000 but he has to pay 1000 if the result is not a tech of 19 nothing