KenPom Defense

[LetsGoDukies]

People often comment on here about how they wish Duke could get back to playing lock down defense like they did back in the day and I agree. KenPom goes back to 2002 and I went and looked back at our defensive rating each year since then. I was pretty surprised at how much our defense has fallen off in recent years.

- Between 2002 and 2010, we had a top 10 defense 6 out of 9 years. We had a top 20 defense in 8 out of those 9 years. (2009 we were 36th)

- Since then, we haven't had a top 10 defense (0 for 5) and had only one top 20 defense (last year we were #12).

Does anyone have an explanation?? I would say the one and done era contributes a lot to that but last year we had 3 one and done players and our D ended up #12 which is good. The good thing is our offense is still going strong as we have a top 10 offense, the past 7 years and currently sit at #2 this year. Below is a list of our defense rating since 02.

02 - 1
03 - 16
04 - 4
05 - 3
06 - 18
07 - 7
08 - 8
09 - 36
10 - 8
11 - 21
12 - 81
13 - 31
14 - 116
15 - 12
16 - 109 (so far)

 

[dukiejay]

Well, for one, the numbers continue to adjust throughout the NCAAT. Last year going into the tournament we were #40ish and our championship run helped inflate that. And I don't mean that to make it sound as though we weren't a good defensive team late in the season....because we were. But even going into the tournament in 2009 UNC was barely in the top 50 and they climbed 30 spots. So playing longer certainly 'inflates' the numbers a bit.

Also, in lot of those previous years Duke had elite individual defenders. Our best defender this season (without Amile) is Matt, but he doesn't qualify as elite. Although, his performance the last two games on Lee and Brogdon were outstanding and maybe even say otherwise.

Plus, with the exception of 2007 and 2008, we were really good offensively those years, and often times that equates to maybe a better defense than what you really have because teams are constantly trying to catch you. Off the top of my head, the best sports example I can give is of the '98 Vikings team. The best offense ever (until the Rams a few years later) and always playing way ahead. That team saw four defenders make the Pro Bowl and they were a top 10 defense....but the caveat is that teams were always passing and playing from behind. It's easier to defend when you have a better understanding of what is almost always coming. Make sense?

Lastly, the OAD era certainly plays a role. Playing defense in Duke's system isn't something learned overnight. Over time you get a better feel for the adjustments and what you need to do. In essence, this is third year in a row where we've seen massive change to our roster. In that respect, we lack consistency.

 

[LetsGoDukies]

A lot of good thoughts there dukiejay... thanks!

 

[pisgah101]

OAD OAD OAD. That sums it up its hard to teach hard nose man to man defense and expect it to be where it used to be when the turnover is like it currently is now. I heard K talk about it once and said they have to figure out how to fix it because the old system doesn't work being the upperclassman taught the new ones and so on

 

[Dad2ze]

A lot of good points, I'll throw mine in. Man-to-man is a great defense if you have players who know how to run it correctly and the legs for it. I am a 2-3/3-2/1-3-1 zone man myself. You can create havoc on teams with that but you can also cause problems for you as well. My thought. Switch between a hybrid of the two. When we beat Carolina last years it was the box and 1 on Paige that won us that game and Roy not calling timeouts. If you have a deep bench that has good legs man-to-man can work but if you ever break it, then you're screwed!

 

[pisgah101]

I like a hybrid as well

 

[DukeJim99]

OAD OAD OAD. That sums it up its hard to teach hard nose man to man defense and expect it to be where it used to be when the turnover is like it currently is now. I heard K talk about it once and said they have to figure out how to fix it because the old system doesn't work being the upperclassman taught the new ones and so on

I don't know that OAD explains the dropoff in Duke D comparing the period of 2002-10 with 2011-current, which was the original question.

Between 2008 and 2014/15, we lost Kyrie, Austin, and Jabari to OAD. While Kyrie would have been a good defender if he'd stayed another year or two, do you really believe the difference between how good Duke's D was pre-2010 versus how mediocre they've been post-2010 is that we don't have the D that Austin and Jabari would have laid down in their soph and junior years???

Besides, KY has done fairly well lately on D, and their number of OADs probably triples Duke's OADs.

I think it has more to do with the particular skillsets of the particular kids we have recruited, with OAD issues being a lesser factor, but still a factor. KY has successfully recruited some really long, athletic guys who get to campus and immediately are factors on D. We've successfully recruited guys who were more polished offensively than defensively when they arrived on campus (Kyrie, Austin, Jabari, Jahlil, Kennard) and our O vs. D numbers probably reflect that.

 

[DukeDenver]

I think we've not landed as many offense/defense balanced players (as DJ stated, several reasons there). Recent exceptions being Justise... and not many others that I'd compare to Brand/Battier/Duhon/Singler types. There's no way to go out and get a complete roster of balanced guys, you just hope you can coach up the D maybe. Allen is coming along for example. Grayson is a perfect example of a guy who, if was as committed to defense, would already be a borderline lottery pick IMO.

One thing is for sure, we have a very balanced guys coming in very soon. Pumped about the potential. I'll be honest fellas, I think Coach might ride off into the sunset after next season, win or lose. I'd hate to see it, but I feel like he's considering it as the most likely possibility.

 

[pisgah101]

I don't know that OAD explains the dropoff in Duke D comparing the period of 2002-10 with 2011-current, which was the original question.

Between 2008 and 2014/15, we lost Kyrie, Austin, and Jabari to OAD. While Kyrie would have been a good defender if he'd stayed another year or two, do you really believe the difference between how good Duke's D was pre-2010 versus how mediocre they've been post-2010 is that we don't have the D that Austin and Jabari would have laid down in their soph and junior years???

Besides, KY has done fairly well lately on D, and their number of OADs probably triples Duke's OADs.

I think it has more to do with the particular skillsets of the particular kids we have recruited, with OAD issues being a lesser factor, but still a factor. KY has successfully recruited some really long, athletic guys who get to campus and immediately are factors on D. We've successfully recruited guys who were more polished offensively than defensively when they arrived on campus (Kyrie, Austin, Jabari, Jahlil, Kennard) and our O vs. D numbers probably reflect that.

You missed my whole point. The old system those guys woulda been at Duke for 3 or 4 seasons and would of learned to play great D and while the older players (like say Kyrie to Jabari, Jabari would have learned from Kyrie and so on) it was a cycle and it clearly worked

 

[dukiejay]

I'll be honest fellas, I think Coach might ride off into the sunset after next season, win or lose. I'd hate to see it, but I feel like he's considering it as the most likely possibility.

I know K is facing a knee replacement sometime this spring/summer. But I'll say this....barring some serious health concerns, I think you're wrong. IMO, K isn't to the point right now where he's saying anything close to "so and so season will be my last"....

 

[DukeJim99]

You missed my whole point. The old system those guys woulda been at Duke for 3 or 4 seasons and would of learned to play great D and while the older players (like say Kyrie to Jabari, Jabari would have learned from Kyrie and so on) it was a cycle and it clearly worked

But those were three guys out of dozens of guys. That's it. Why couldn't Jabari have learned the system from Thornton (sr) or Quinn Cook (Jr) or Josh Hairston (sr). What makes you think the departure of Kyrie left Jabari without upperclassmen from whom to learn the system?

 

[dukiejay]

I don't think it falls solely on learning the system....there's also an understanding, whether that be communication, picking spots and such. Plus, it comes from playing with teammates and learning their styles. Sometimes it's hard to build that chemistry over a six-month period. Brandon, for example, is an efficient defender, but that's partly because of his skillset too.

While I don't think OAD is the main culprit, I don't think it's helped, either. Part of it, IMO, is parity within college basketball.

 

[DukeDenver]

I know K is facing a knee replacement sometime this spring/summer. But I'll say this....barring some serious health concerns, I think you're wrong. IMO, K isn't to the point right now where he's saying anything close to "so and so season will be my last"....

Mine is a gut feeling, nothing more. I think he's going to win gold and win one more title by March 2017, and call it a career. I think it has little to do with what he CAN do, and more about what he wants.

 

[dukiejay]

Those close to him seem to believe he has no timetable, and more importantly, if it is his last season next year I'd expect all of us know prior to the beginning of the 2016-17 season.