KenPom rankings are out

[CappyNU]

'Cats come in at #87, 13th in the B1G. Tiers break down roughly as follows:

Championship contender:
#1 MSU

Final Four striver:
#7 Purdue

Top-25 teams:
#11 OSU
#16 Maryland
#21 Michigan

Bubble-land:
#34 Indiana
#35 Illinois
#41 Iowa
#43 PSU
#45 Wisconsin

NIT-worthy:
#63 Rutgers

Wait till next year:
#81 Minnesota
#87 'Cats
#96 Nebraska

Great luck for NU, with our first 2 conf games being against Purdue and MSU, and getting both twice this year. Fortunately we also get Minny and Neb twice, with Illinois, PSU and Maryland as the other doubles.

Clearly these rankings are not perfect, i.e. NU preseason ranking of #18 the year after the tourney run, but it gives some fodder for discussion.

For a less rosy prediction, Bart Torvik's rankings have NU at #107 and last in the conference.

 

[bringbacktherantboard]

How does he even calculate the rankings before the season begins? It's not purely based on last year's results, that much I know for sure (otherwise UTEP, who has already beaten Texas Tech in a charity exhibition and Grand Canyon in a secret scrimmage, would still be the lowest-ranked CUSA team instead of 4th, so somehow he has captured expected improvement in his rankings). But if there are no official games this season to draw from, what exactly is he using?

 

[SimpsonElmwood]

How does he even calculate the rankings before the season begins? It's not purely based on last year's results, that much I know for sure (otherwise UTEP, who has already beaten Texas Tech in a charity exhibition and Grand Canyon in a secret scrimmage, would still be the lowest-ranked CUSA team instead of 4th, so somehow he has captured expected improvement in his rankings). But if there are no official games this season to draw from, what exactly is he using?

I have the same issue about year over year ratings, however KenPom does a better job than most. He takes the production from the prior year at a player level and removes the impact of the players no longer on the team from the team's overall performance (W/L, SOS and overall offensive and defensive production). The one gap is the quality of players who have not played at the D1 level. It's as good as an estimate as any, but carrying over ranking year over year overweights the strength of power conferences, in my opinion. Case in point, NU's top 100 rating. Hopefully our on court performance lives up to this level or higher.

 

[Titanium999]

'Cats come in at #87, 13th in the B1G. Tiers break down roughly as follows:

Championship contender:
#1 MSU

Final Four striver:
#7 Purdue

Top-25 teams:
#11 OSU
#16 Maryland
#21 Michigan

Bubble-land:
#34 Indiana
#35 Illinois
#41 Iowa
#43 PSU
#45 Wisconsin

NIT-worthy:
#63 Rutgers

Wait till next year:
#81 Minnesota
#87 'Cats
#96 Nebraska

Great luck for NU, with our first 2 conf games being against Purdue and MSU, and getting both twice this year. Fortunately we also get Minny and Neb twice, with Illinois, PSU and Maryland as the other doubles.

Clearly these rankings are not perfect, i.e. NU preseason ranking of #18 the year after the tourney run, but it gives some fodder for discussion.

For a less rosy prediction, Bart Torvik's rankings have NU at #107 and last in the conference.

No Respect!

 

[NU Houston]

Great luck for NU, with our first 2 conf games being against Purdue and MSU

One way of looking at those first two games is that they're going to be ugly. Another way, however, is that we'll at least get them out of the way early and then hope our young team improves as the season progresses.

 

[bringbacktherantboard]

Let me say that I think it's absurd that all 14 Big Ten teams are in the top 100. All these rankings seem to have ridiculous bias in favor of the power conferences.

 

[CappyNU]

I have the same issue about year over year ratings, however KenPom does a better job than most. He takes the production from the prior year at a player level and removes the impact of the players no longer on the team from the team's overall performance (W/L, SOS and overall offensive and defensive production). The one gap is the quality of players who have not played at the D1 level. It's as good as an estimate as any, but carrying over ranking year over year overweights the strength of power conferences, in my opinion. Case in point, NU's top 100 rating. Hopefully our on court performance lives up to this level or higher.

This mostly gets at it, but I think he also looks at the top 30 recruits coming in and factors their performance in based on past years' data as another component. It's certainly a crapshoot, but for example, last year's preseason top-25 had 18 teams that finished in the top-25 by the end of the year, and only 4 of the top-25 didn't make the tournament. The biggest miss was having West Virginia at #10 to start, when they finished #95. The 2018 season was less successful, where only 14 of the top-25 finished there, and 6 didn't make the tournament (including us, where we went from #18 to #85).

 

[Vassar69]

Let me say that I think it's absurd that all 14 Big Ten teams are in the top 100. All these rankings seem to have ridiculous bias in favor of the power conferences.

Absolutely correct, at least as far as preseason. The good news is that as the season plays out and the model becomes populated with real data, that bias washes out. Usually by mid January it’s a really good indicator of relative rankings among teams

 

[CappyNU]

Let me say that I think it's absurd that all 14 Big Ten teams are in the top 100. All these rankings seem to have ridiculous bias in favor of the power conferences.

Last year's B1G teams went 94-7 against teams outside of the top-100, there is no bias in the rankings. The only bias is in the lack of opportunity for smaller teams to go up against the top teams, but the rankings are simply based on performance.

 

[bringbacktherantboard]

Last year's B1G teams went 94-7 against teams outside of the top-100, there is no bias in the rankings. The only bias is in the lack of opportunity for smaller teams to go up against the top teams, but the rankings are simply based on performance.

Northwestern, last season, finished 74th in the Kenpom rankings, just three spots behind Fresno St., who absolutely blasted the 'Cats. Northwestern at 13-19 should not even be sniffing the top 100, much less be in the vicinity of a 23-9 Fresno St. that blasted them head-to-head.

 

[Vassar69]

Northwestern, last season, finished 74th in the Kenpom rankings, just three spots behind Fresno St., who absolutely blasted the 'Cats. Northwestern at 13-19 should not even be sniffing the top 100, much less be in the vicinity of a 23-9 Fresno St. that blasted them head-to-head.

How do you think KenPom is biasing a numerical model?

 

[CappyNU]

Northwestern, last season, finished 74th in the Kenpom rankings, just three spots behind Fresno St., who absolutely blasted the 'Cats. Northwestern at 13-19 should not even be sniffing the top 100, much less be in the vicinity of a 23-9 Fresno St. that blasted them head-to-head.

Fresno State went 1-6 against other top-100 teams last year, while going 17-2 against teams ranked worse than 150. The 'Cats went 4-19 against top-100 teams while going 6-0 against teams worse than 150. How would Fresno have done against our schedule and us against theirs?

 

[Fitz51]

Every team I love just stinks right now.

 

[bringbacktherantboard]

Fresno State went 1-6 against other top-100 teams last year, while going 17-2 against teams ranked worse than 150. The 'Cats went 4-19 against top-100 teams while going 6-0 against teams worse than 150. How would Fresno have done against our schedule and us against theirs?

Well I guess it's impossible to say for sure. However, since Fresno St. plays in the Mountain West that has lots of schools playing at higher elevation, I think Northwestern would have been gassed playing in many of those games (Northwestern gets gassed as it is playing near sea level) and would have a worse record than Fresno St.

And since I actually think Fresno St. is better as evidenced by their complete domination of Northwestern head-to-head, I think they would have had a better record against Northwestern's schedule, probably just above .500. But that's all speculation, of course.

 

[loyolacat]

So Loyola is 99 with 7 new players on the roster and at least 3 of those newcomers in the starting line up.....So this has just gotta be pure ....crystal ball stuff except for teams with lots of returners...... but always fun to get an idea what someone thinks based on limited data

 

[freewillie07]

One way of looking at those first two games is that they're going to be ugly. Another way, however, is that we'll at least get them out of the way early and then hope our young team improves as the season progresses.

I agree with this. NU is not beating MSU or Purdue this season, no matter when they play them.

On the other hand, NU could maybe beat some of the mid- to low-tier teams later in the season, but not early on.

 

[pawildcat_rivals209725]

Interesting to see Michigan getting so much love despite the loss of Beilein and some excellent players. I'll be interested to see how they do.

 

[Medill90]

Interesting to see Michigan getting so much love despite the loss of Beilein and some excellent players. I'll be interested to see how they do.

Michigan could finish anywhere from 3 - 14. Nebby is more like 6-14, which is where I'd put NU. Minny is crapshoot as well.

Teams like OSU and Iowa could have higher ceilings. I'd put the Illini in there as well....could be very good, or the end of last year had a lot of smoke.

Rutgers and PSU will be interesting. Mediocre for both is a success.

I think Illini, Rutgers and PSU is about coaching this year....a litmus test for each. I think Fran's ok, but if he tanks it they'll be rough on him.

It's wide open like 2, 3 years ago. Whoever finds the chemistry.

 

[iubaseball]

No Respect!

Respect! Seriously! IU program is light years better and ahead of what NU has ever been. We do not get a bit of respect, but that is deserved. You have to win, and at a decently high level to earn respect.! Over the last 6 or so years we have not even been at a mid level of competitiveness. When we get back in line with our history, respect will take care of itself. NU has historically in the NCAA been one of the worst teams at the division one level. No titles, very rarely been higher then a basement level team, facts not conjecture. To get respect, you have to win at a high level.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Respect! Seriously! IU program is light years better and ahead of what NU has ever been. We do not get a bit of respect, but that is deserved. You have to win, and at a decently high level to earn respect.! Over the last 6 or so years we have not even been at a mid level of competitiveness. When we get back in line with our history, respect will take care of itself. NU has historically in the NCAA been one of the worst teams at the division one level. No titles, very rarely been higher then a basement level team, facts not conjecture. To get respect, you have to win at a high level.

No one cares about iu basketball here.

 

[pawildcat_rivals209725]

Respect! Seriously! IU program is light years better and ahead of what NU has ever been. We do not get a bit of respect, but that is deserved. You have to win, and at a decently high level to earn respect.! Over the last 6 or so years we have not even been at a mid level of competitiveness. When we get back in line with our history, respect will take care of itself. NU has historically in the NCAA been one of the worst teams at the division one level. No titles, very rarely been higher then a basement level team, facts not conjecture. To get respect, you have to win at a high level.

Nobody said anything negative about Indiana basketball in this thread, and frankly this is a Northwestern board and most of us don't care what you think about NU basketball.

 

[iubaseball]

Nobody said anything negative about Indiana basketball in this thread, and frankly this is a Northwestern board and most of us don't care what you think about NU basketball.

Well, you have to face the truth. I was only trying to pointing that you have to earn respect. Having said that, quite honestly, except for one season in the entire history of NU b-ball and NCAA b-ball, NU b-ball has been a bottom feeder and not relevant in b-ball at all, kind of like our football program. At least I am honest to say that over the last few years we have fallen off being a blue blood program, and am honest about our football program. You guys, on the other hand , do not seem to accept what is right in front of you. And, honestly, I can see you losing to Msu, OSU, Wisky IU, Purdue, Illinois, Maryland and Michigan every time you play them. So realistically, you are looking at at least 12 to 14 league losses. From there, it is a crap shoot for you guys for any wins. That is an honest outlook, so yep, you have not earned any respect yet. Just a plain fact

 

[Vassar69]

Well, you have to face the truth. I was only trying to pointing that you have to earn respect. Having said that, quite honestly, except for one season in the entire history of NU b-ball and NCAA b-ball, NU b-ball has been a bottom feeder and not relevant in b-ball at all, kind of like our football program. At least I am honest to say that over the last few years we have fallen off being a blue blood program, and am honest about our football program. You guys, on the other hand , do not seem to accept what is right in front of you. And, honestly, I can see you losing to Msu, OSU, Wisky IU, Purdue, Illinois, Maryland and Michigan every time you play them. So realistically, you are looking at at least 12 to 14 league losses. From there, it is a crap shoot for you guys for any wins. That is an honest outlook, so yep, you have not earned any respect yet. Just a plain fact

Alright dude settle down. Go listen to some John Mellencamp or something.

 

[BosCat]

Alright dude settle down. Go listen to some John Mellencamp or something.

Sorry, I think the original post must be missing:

"Could some random IU fan please come on here and post an unsolicited opinion about IU hoops. Also could you please tell us NU fans how we should feel about our program"

 

[iubaseball]

Sorry, I think the original post must be missing:

"Could some random IU fan please come on here and post an unsolicited opinion about IU hoops. Also could you please tell us NU fans how we should feel about our program"

IU program is no where’s near what we have historically been. And our staff, administrators and players catch a ton of hell. It goes with being in the IU b-ball program, and some of the heat they get is deserved. As far as the NU program, maybe the best thing that can be said is you are what you are. I really do not think that titles are part of the real expectations. I may be wrong, but I think most of the NU b-ball fans are almost beside themselves if NU finishes above 500% and can start getting in NCAA more then once every 60 years or so.

 

[PURPLECAT88]

Respect! Seriously! IU program is light years better and ahead of what NU has ever been. We do not get a bit of respect, but that is deserved. You have to win, and at a decently high level to earn respect.! Over the last 6 or so years we have not even been at a mid level of competitiveness. When we get back in line with our history, respect will take care of itself. NU has historically in the NCAA been one of the worst teams at the division one level. No titles, very rarely been higher then a basement level team, facts not conjecture. To get respect, you have to win at a high level.

Wrassler always finds some sucker to take the bait, doesn't he?

 

[Vassar69]

IU program is no where’s near what we have historically been. And our staff, administrators and players catch a ton of hell. It goes with being in the IU b-ball program, and some of the heat they get is deserved. As far as the NU program, maybe the best thing that can be said is you are what you are. I really do not think that titles are part of the real expectations. I may be wrong, but I think most of the NU b-ball fans are almost beside themselves if NU finishes above 500% and can start getting in NCAA more then once every 60 years or so.

I hate to break it to you, but it isn’t 1987 anymore and Bob Knight isn’t walking through that door. I think it’s adorable that IU fans think they’re somehow a dormant blue blood. They slipped to the middling tier of college programs decades ago. If you don’t believe me, ask Adidas. They didn’t even think you were worth the investment of paying recruits.

Hell, IU is third fiddle in their own state. Purdue and Butler have both been better over the last decade.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Why are we even talking about IU. Literally no one on this board cares. We all know the history of NU basketball, so no idea what this guy is trying to accomplish.

 

[iubaseball]

I hate to break it to you, but it isn’t 1987 anymore and Bob Knight isn’t walking through that door. I think it’s adorable that IU fans think they’re somehow a dormant blue blood. They slipped to the middling tier of college programs decades ago. If you don’t believe me, ask Adidas. They didn’t even think you were worth the investment of paying recruits.

Hell, IU is third fiddle in their own state. Purdue and Butler have both been better over the last decade.

Well, Putdue yes, except they have never been to Final Four or won a National title. And no, Butler is not better then us now. Remover, we beat them last year in crossroads. And yep, no title since 1987, but a national championship game in 2002. But not to worry, I have no doubt we will be back there soon. As for you guys, well a simple one word answer. NEVER

 

[Medill90]

Well, Putdue yes, except they have never been to Final Four or won a National title. And no, Butler is not better then us now. Remover, we beat them last year in crossroads. And yep, no title since 1987, but a national championship game in 2002. But not to worry, I have no doubt we will be back there soon. As for you guys, well a simple one word answer. NEVER

If you're going to fight with an Illini guy why don't you take it to some mutually agreeable corn field.

 

[Sec_112]

My friend, there's two kinds of Hoosier fans. Some of them have so much passion and so much history and they really just love the game without beating their chest about it. One of the best times I've ever had at a game was sitting next to this old lady. She was older than dirt. The game became a blowout and she starts telling me all these great stories going back to the early 70s, and comparing the present-day players to championship players very fondly and reasonably.

Then there's another type of Hoosier fan ... and it's far too prevalent in the Hoosier culture. They like to to wag their finger about anything regarding basketball. They are more than happy to tell you how to be a fan of the game and how the game SHOULD be played.

They think because they watch all the IU games that they have some knowledge base built up that can't possibly gained anywhere else - despite the obvious proliferation of basketball and the ability to watch almost any college game anywhere. They usually don't have much insight beyond the obvious.

As you grow up, don't be the second type of fan.

 

[iubaseball]

My friend, there's two kinds of Hoosier fans. Some of them have so much passion and so much history and they really just love the game without beating their chest about it. One of the best times I've ever had at a game was sitting next to this old lady. She was older than dirt. The game became a blowout and she starts telling me all these great stories going back to the early 70s, and comparing the present-day players to championship players very fondly and reasonably.

Then there's another type of Hoosier fan ... and it's far too prevalent in the Hoosier culture. They like to to wag their finger about anything regarding basketball. They are more than happy to tell you how to be a fan of the game and how the game SHOULD be played.

They think because they watch all the IU games that they have some knowledge base built up that can't possibly gained anywhere else - despite the obvious proliferation of basketball and the ability to watch almost any college game anywhere. They usually don't have much insight beyond the obvious.

As you grow up, don't be the second type of fan.

Well said from a guy who supports a great school academically, but other then a nice and solid football program, has a basically bottom end athletic program. So good for you.

 

[Sec_112]

Well said from a guy who supports a great school academically, but other then a nice and solid football program, has a basically bottom end athletic program. So good for you.

Yea, I have a little experience with the all-knowing Hoosier fan. But go ahead and keep pretending your mastery of the obvious is some measure of insight.

 

[pawildcat_rivals209725]

Well, you have to face the truth. I was only trying to pointing that you have to earn respect. Having said that, quite honestly, except for one season in the entire history of NU b-ball and NCAA b-ball, NU b-ball has been a bottom feeder and not relevant in b-ball at all, kind of like our football program. At least I am honest to say that over the last few years we have fallen off being a blue blood program, and am honest about our football program. You guys, on the other hand , do not seem to accept what is right in front of you. And, honestly, I can see you losing to Msu, OSU, Wisky IU, Purdue, Illinois, Maryland and Michigan every time you play them. So realistically, you are looking at at least 12 to 14 league losses. From there, it is a crap shoot for you guys for any wins. That is an honest outlook, so yep, you have not earned any respect yet. Just a plain fact

I really don't need you to tell me Northwestern hasn't been anything wonderful in basketball, and I suspect I knew this long before you were born. I also don't feel the need to go over on the Indiana boards and remind you that respect in football is earned etc., or to throw shade on the Indiana BB program when you're having a bad year. If that's the way you get off, fire away.

 

[Secho99]

Northwestern, last season, finished 74th in the Kenpom rankings, just three spots behind Fresno St., who absolutely blasted the 'Cats. Northwestern at 13-19 should not even be sniffing the top 100, much less be in the vicinity of a 23-9 Fresno St. that blasted them head-to-head.

It's a statistical model that looks at a team's results and takes the number of points they would be expected to score every 100 possessions versus an average team and subtracts the number of points a team would be expected to allow every 100 possessions versus an average team. Then it ranks the teams by that margin. It has no inherent bias. When NU won 13 and 14 games earlier this decade the team was ranked in the 130s. In 2010 we won 20 games and were ranked 84th. The next year we won 20 games and were ranked 50th.

The point is not to get too hung up on any one individual result. Fresno whacked us but also lost to Air Force at home. They played 23 games against teams ranked worse than 125th, we only played 6 (and won all of them). The idea is if we played their schedule we also probably would've won about 23 games.

In the overall scheme of 353 teams we weren't that bad last year. We were horrible relative to the rest of our conference, which was outstanding. But we probably would've been favored to win at least half of D1 leagues last year and would've been in the top half of all but the top 6 leagues. Unfortunately we played in a league in which being the 74th best team in the country meant going 4-17.