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Kentucky's Schedule according to Jeff Sagarin PREDICTOR (updated 3/6)

W

WACB

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Nov 16, 2009
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Factoring in home court advantage
PREDICTOR is how many points we should be favoredRANK - OPPONENT ----- PREDICTOR ----- ACTUAL
--------------------------------------------
271 - Grand Canyon ---- 37.0 --------- 40
62 - Buffalo --------- 22.4 --------- 19
13 - Kansas ---------- 10.8 --------- 32
228 - Boston ---------- 34.5 --------- 24
321 - Montana St ------ 42.0 --------- 58
183 - UT Arlington ---- 32.0 --------- 48
35 - Providence ------ 19.1 --------- 20
18 - Texas ----------- 15.6 --------- 12
134 - Eastern Ky ------ 28.8 --------- 33
144 - Columbia -------- 29.5 --------- 10
10 - UNC*** ---------- 12.1 --------- 14
58 - UCLA ------------ 18.7 --------- 39
14 - at Louisville ---- 7.7 ---------- 8
42 - Ole Miss -------- 19.9 ---------- 3
49 - at Texas A&M ---- 14.0 ---------- 6
168 - Missouri -------- 31.2 --------- 49
60 - at Alabama ------ 15.7 --------- 22
51 - Vanderbilt ------ 20.9 ---------- 8
57 - at S Carolina --- 15.4 --------- 15
168 - at Missouri ----- 24.6 --------- 16
60 - Alabama --------- 22.3 --------- 15
39 - Georgia --------- 19.5 --------- 11
34 - at Florida ------ 12.5 ---------- 7
52 - at LSU ---------- 14.4 ---------- 2
57 - S Carolina ------ 22.0 --------- 34
91 - at Tennessee ---- 18.7 --------- 18
150 - Auburn ---------- 30.1 --------- 35
147 - at Miss St ------ 23.1 --------- 18
26 - Arkansas -------- 18.1 --------- 17
39 - at Georgia ------ 12.9 ---------- 8
34 - Florida --------- 19.1



PROBABILITY OF FINISHING THE REGULAR SEASON UNDEFEATED:

Kentucky - 96.0%

This post was edited on 3/6 12:19 PM by WACB
 
B

bluedog79

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Re: Kentucky's Schedule according to Jeff Sagarin PREDICTOR (updated 12/30)


his predictions are off by an average of around 10 points. If you take away 10 points or add 10 points to his spread then you got 5 single digit winning margin games coming. Those are your potential losses I reckon
 
D

Dutycat

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Jan 3, 2003
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Re: Kentucky's Schedule according to Jeff Sagarin PREDICTOR (updated 12/30)

GOOD GAWD
 
J

jrpross_rivals

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Re: Kentucky's Schedule according to Jeff Sagarin PREDICTOR (updated 12/30)

Pretty accurate overall. We were predicted to win by a total of 348.5 points in games we've played so far. Our actual total is 357
 
F

far_away_fan

Freshman
Jul 21, 2009
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Re: Kentucky's Schedule according to Jeff Sagarin PREDICTOR (updated 12/30)

WOW!!!
Here's a brief statistical analysis of this data:

A quick calculation indicates that his predictions (from this data) have a standard deviation of about 11.8 points. That size standard deviation would indicated that if he predicts Kentucky should win a game by about 12 points (like at FL), then UK should have about a 1 in 6 chance of losing that game. Now, we can use that model to find the probability of Kentucky losing any of its remaining games. We can then find the probability that Kentucky goes through the entire SEC slate undefeated.

I was shocked to see that the answer turns out to be 46%. That's frighteningly high considering there are 18 games left!

It should be noted that this analysis makes several assumptions about the games played this far (like homoscedasticity and normalcy) that probably aren't valid. Still, it's probably not a bad first approximation. So the Sagarin model is giving UK about even odds to run the slate in the SEC. That's pretty wild.




Originally posted by icalfan:


Factoring in home court advantageNumber is how many points we should be favoredOPPONENT ----- PREDICTOR ----- ACTUAL
-------------------------------------
Grand Canyon ---- 41.0 --------- 40
Buffalo --------- 26.0 --------- 19
Kansas ---------- 17.5 --------- 32
Boston ---------- 38.0 --------- 24
Montana St ------ 45.0 --------- 58
UT Arlington ---- 35.0 --------- 48
Providence ------ 24.5 --------- 20
Texas ----------- 17.0 --------- 12
Eastern Ky ------ 30.0 --------- 33
Columbia -------- 29.0 --------- 10
UNC*** ---------- 14.5 --------- 14
UCLA ------------ 24.5 --------- 39
at Louisville ---- 6.5 ---------- 8
Ole Miss -------- 28.0
at Texas A&M ---- 18.0
Missouri -------- 35.5
at Alabama ------ 21.0
Vanderbilt ------ 25.5
at S Carolina --- 13.0
at Missouri ----- 28.0
Alabama --------- 28.5
Georgia --------- 23.5
at Florida ------ 12.5
at LSU ---------- 18.5
S Carolina ------ 20.5
at Tennessee ---- 23.0
Auburn ---------- 34.0
at Miss St ------ 27.5
Arkansas -------- 23.5
at Georgia ------ 15.5
Florida --------- 20.5
Click to expand...
 
OldRed

OldRed

All-Conference
Jun 7, 2001
17,930
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Re: Kentucky's Schedule according to Jeff Sagarin PREDICTOR (updated 12/30)

Originally posted by far_away_fan:
WOW!!!
Here's a brief statistical analysis of this data:

A quick calculation indicates that his predictions (from this data) have a standard deviation of about 11.8 points. That size standard deviation would indicated that if he predicts Kentucky should win a game by about 12 points (like at FL), then UK should have about a 1 in 6 chance of losing that game. Now, we can use that model to find the probability of Kentucky losing any of its remaining games. We can then find the probability that Kentucky goes through the entire SEC slate undefeated.

I was shocked to see that the answer turns out to be 46%. That's frighteningly high considering there are 18 games left!

It should be noted that this analysis makes several assumptions about the games played this far (like homoscedasticity and normalcy) that probably aren't valid. Still, it's probably not a bad first approximation. So the Sagarin model is giving UK about even odds to run the slate in the SEC. That's pretty wild.




Originally posted by icalfan:


Factoring in home court advantageNumber is how many points we should be favoredOPPONENT ----- PREDICTOR ----- ACTUAL
-------------------------------------
Grand Canyon ---- 41.0 --------- 40
Buffalo --------- 26.0 --------- 19
Kansas ---------- 17.5 --------- 32
Boston ---------- 38.0 --------- 24
Montana St ------ 45.0 --------- 58
UT Arlington ---- 35.0 --------- 48
Providence ------ 24.5 --------- 20
Texas ----------- 17.0 --------- 12
Eastern Ky ------ 30.0 --------- 33
Columbia -------- 29.0 --------- 10
UNC*** ---------- 14.5 --------- 14
UCLA ------------ 24.5 --------- 39
at Louisville ---- 6.5 ---------- 8
Ole Miss -------- 28.0
at Texas A&M ---- 18.0
Missouri -------- 35.5
at Alabama ------ 21.0
Vanderbilt ------ 25.5
at S Carolina --- 13.0
at Missouri ----- 28.0
Alabama --------- 28.5
Georgia --------- 23.5
at Florida ------ 12.5
at LSU ---------- 18.5
S Carolina ------ 20.5
at Tennessee ---- 23.0
Auburn ---------- 34.0
at Miss St ------ 27.5
Arkansas -------- 23.5
at Georgia ------ 15.5
Florida --------- 20.5
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
Never thought I'd have to look up a word on Rupps Rafters. There are many on here that would fight you if they thought you were implying that anything associated with UK was homoscedastic. By the time we hit South Carolina, we'll probably have much better numbers. It is pretty amazing that our toughest game still rates a double digit margin for UK.
 
A

akaukswoosh

Hall of Famer
Jan 14, 2006
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Re: Kentucky's Schedule according to Jeff Sagarin PREDICTOR (updated 12/30)


Pretty accurate overall. We were predicted to win by a total of 348.5 points in games we've played so far. Our actual total is 357

Impressive.
 
S

.S&C.

All-American
Jul 8, 2014
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Re: Kentucky's Schedule according to Jeff Sagarin PREDICTOR (updated 12/30)


Originally posted by JasonSpear:
God the SEC is awful
Click to expand...
Gotta disagree it doesn't seem to matter what conference it is.

we were predicted to beat Texas, Providence, UCLA, UNC, etc.. all by double digits. Blowouts. Hell, we were predicted to beat Kansas by 17. It isn't an SEC thing, it's a UK thing.
 
S

.S&C.

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Re: Kentucky's Schedule according to Jeff Sagarin PREDICTOR (updated 12/30)


Originally posted by JasonSpear:

Originally posted by .S&C.:

Originally posted by JasonSpear:
God the SEC is awful
Click to expand...
Gotta disagree it doesn't seem to matter what conference it is.

we were predicted to beat Texas, Providence, UCLA, UNC, etc.. all by double digits. Blowouts. Hell, we were predicted to beat Kansas by 17. It isn't an SEC thing, it's a UK thing.
Click to expand...
when anyone is predicted to come onto your home court and beat you by 15, 20, 25+... you're awful, at least for a major league.
Click to expand...
yea but I think it would be about the same for any league not named acc.
 
U

ukwazoo

All-Conference
Sep 8, 2001
11,317
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Re: Kentucky's Schedule according to Jeff Sagarin PREDICTOR (updated 12/30)

Originally posted by far_away_fan:
WOW!!!
Here's a brief statistical analysis of this data:

A quick calculation indicates that his predictions (from this data) have a standard deviation of about 11.8 points. That size standard deviation would indicated that if he predicts Kentucky should win a game by about 12 points (like at FL), then UK should have about a 1 in 6 chance of losing that game. Now, we can use that model to find the probability of Kentucky losing any of its remaining games. We can then find the probability that Kentucky goes through the entire SEC slate undefeated.

I was shocked to see that the answer turns out to be 46%. That's frighteningly high considering there are 18 games left!

It should be noted that this analysis makes several assumptions about the games played this far (like homoscedasticity and normalcy) that probably aren't valid. Still, it's probably not a bad first approximation. So the Sagarin model is giving UK about even odds to run the slate in the SEC. That's pretty wild.




Originally posted by icalfan:


Factoring in home court advantageNumber is how many points we should be favoredOPPONENT ----- PREDICTOR ----- ACTUAL
-------------------------------------
Grand Canyon ---- 41.0 --------- 40
Buffalo --------- 26.0 --------- 19
Kansas ---------- 17.5 --------- 32
Boston ---------- 38.0 --------- 24
Montana St ------ 45.0 --------- 58
UT Arlington ---- 35.0 --------- 48
Providence ------ 24.5 --------- 20
Texas ----------- 17.0 --------- 12
Eastern Ky ------ 30.0 --------- 33
Columbia -------- 29.0 --------- 10
UNC*** ---------- 14.5 --------- 14
UCLA ------------ 24.5 --------- 39
at Louisville ---- 6.5 ---------- 8
Ole Miss -------- 28.0
at Texas A&M ---- 18.0
Missouri -------- 35.5
at Alabama ------ 21.0
Vanderbilt ------ 25.5
at S Carolina --- 13.0
at Missouri ----- 28.0
Alabama --------- 28.5
Georgia --------- 23.5
at Florida ------ 12.5
at LSU ---------- 18.5
S Carolina ------ 20.5
at Tennessee ---- 23.0
Auburn ---------- 34.0
at Miss St ------ 27.5
Arkansas -------- 23.5
at Georgia ------ 15.5
Florida --------- 20.5
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
 
S

.S&C.

All-American
Jul 8, 2014
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Re: Kentucky's Schedule according to Jeff Sagarin PREDICTOR (updated 12/30)


Originally posted by ukwazoo:
Originally posted by far_away_fan:
WOW!!!
Here's a brief statistical analysis of this data:

A quick calculation indicates that his predictions (from this data) have a standard deviation of about 11.8 points. That size standard deviation would indicated that if he predicts Kentucky should win a game by about 12 points (like at FL), then UK should have about a 1 in 6 chance of losing that game. Now, we can use that model to find the probability of Kentucky losing any of its remaining games. We can then find the probability that Kentucky goes through the entire SEC slate undefeated.

I was shocked to see that the answer turns out to be 46%. That's frighteningly high considering there are 18 games left!

It should be noted that this analysis makes several assumptions about the games played this far (like homoscedasticity and normalcy) that probably aren't valid. Still, it's probably not a bad first approximation. So the Sagarin model is giving UK about even odds to run the slate in the SEC. That's pretty wild.




Originally posted by icalfan:


Factoring in home court advantageNumber is how many points we should be favoredOPPONENT ----- PREDICTOR ----- ACTUAL
-------------------------------------
Grand Canyon ---- 41.0 --------- 40
Buffalo --------- 26.0 --------- 19
Kansas ---------- 17.5 --------- 32
Boston ---------- 38.0 --------- 24
Montana St ------ 45.0 --------- 58
UT Arlington ---- 35.0 --------- 48
Providence ------ 24.5 --------- 20
Texas ----------- 17.0 --------- 12
Eastern Ky ------ 30.0 --------- 33
Columbia -------- 29.0 --------- 10
UNC*** ---------- 14.5 --------- 14
UCLA ------------ 24.5 --------- 39
at Louisville ---- 6.5 ---------- 8
Ole Miss -------- 28.0
at Texas A&M ---- 18.0
Missouri -------- 35.5
at Alabama ------ 21.0
Vanderbilt ------ 25.5
at S Carolina --- 13.0
at Missouri ----- 28.0
Alabama --------- 28.5
Georgia --------- 23.5
at Florida ------ 12.5
at LSU ---------- 18.5
S Carolina ------ 20.5
at Tennessee ---- 23.0
Auburn ---------- 34.0
at Miss St ------ 27.5
Arkansas -------- 23.5
at Georgia ------ 15.5
Florida --------- 20.5
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
Click to expand...
 
W

WACB

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Re: Kentucky's Schedule according to Jeff Sagarin PREDICTOR (updated 1/5)


Updated 1/5
 
T

TankedCat

Heisman
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Re: Kentucky's Schedule according to Jeff Sagarin PREDICTOR (updated 1/5)

Seem like the South Carolina game will get some hype if they keep playing well.
 
W

WACB

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Re: Kentucky's Schedule according to Jeff Sagarin PREDICTOR (updated 1/7)


Updated 1/7
 
W

WACB

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Re: Kentucky's Schedule according to Jeff Sagarin PREDICTOR (updated 1/12)


Updated 1/12
 
W

WACB

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Re: Kentucky's Schedule according to Jeff Sagarin PREDICTOR (updated 1/14)


Updated 1/14
 
W

WACB

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Re: Kentucky's Schedule according to Jeff Sagarin PREDICTOR (updated 1/20)


Updated 1/20
 
J

jarms24

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Re: Kentucky's Schedule according to Jeff Sagarin PREDICTOR (updated 1/20)


 
D

docholiday51

Heisman
Oct 19, 2001
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Re: Kentucky's Schedule according to Jeff Sagarin PREDICTOR (updated 1/20)


I think the LSU and UF numbers probably should be reversed.Even the computers keep thinking UF is something they are not.
 
JasonS.

JasonS.

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Re: Kentucky's Schedule according to Jeff Sagarin PREDICTOR (updated 1/20)

 
C

caneintally

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Re: Kentucky's Schedule according to Jeff Sagarin PREDICTOR (updated 12/30)


Originally posted by .S&C.:

Originally posted by JasonSpear:

Originally posted by .S&C.:

Originally posted by JasonSpear:
God the SEC is awful
Click to expand...
Gotta disagree it doesn't seem to matter what conference it is.

we were predicted to beat Texas, Providence, UCLA, UNC, etc.. all by double digits. Blowouts. Hell, we were predicted to beat Kansas by 17. It isn't an SEC thing, it's a UK thing.
Click to expand...
when anyone is predicted to come onto your home court and beat you by 15, 20, 25+... you're awful, at least for a major league.
Click to expand...
yea but I think it would be about the same for any league not named acc.
Click to expand...
This is correct . What is so funny is he has at UF has our toughest game left and that is such a joke it throws everything else he says out the window IMO. Literally we have 3-4 tougher games left then that as UF blows . They lost Saturday and will lose tonight again. At LSU is out toughest game left followed by at UGA , Arkansas at home , at USC and then At UF .
 
W

WACB

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Re: Kentucky's Schedule according to Jeff Sagarin PREDICTOR (updated 12/30)

nevermind.


This post was edited on 1/21 8:12 AM by icalfan
 
J

Jonathan40330

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Re: Kentucky's Schedule according to Jeff Sagarin PREDICTOR (updated 1/20)

I try not to be a UK homer under any circumstances, but with that said, I think UK will prison rape Arkansas by about 20 points. I think WCS, Harrisons, Lee and other returning players will want revenge for last season.
 
W

WACB

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Re: Kentucky's Schedule according to Jeff Sagarin PREDICTOR (updated 1/26)


Updated 1/26
 
J

jwheat

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Re: Kentucky's Schedule according to Jeff Sagarin PREDICTOR (updated 1/26)


I just don't think @ Florida is our toughest game.
 
U

ukwazoo

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Re: Kentucky's Schedule according to Jeff Sagarin PREDICTOR (updated 1/26)

At UF will definitely be our toughest game, I think. They have the talent, it will be their biggest game of the year, the officiating will be typical road game officiating, and they will be jacking up threes like nobody's business.
Posted from Rivals Mobile
 
J

Joneslab

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Re: Kentucky's Schedule according to Jeff Sagarin PREDICTOR (updated 1/26)



Originally posted by ThroughBlue:


I just don't think @ Florida is our toughest game.
Click to expand...
Me either.

I think Florida is who they're going to be at this point, which is mediocre. That's a team that virtually does nothing well.

I still think at LSU is the toughest. Mickey is really starting to play well and you can see a Johnny O'Bryant situation happening there. At Georgia and Arkansas in Rupp are also concerning.

Arkansas is just crazy enough to come into Rupp and Ole Miss us.
 
A

akaukswoosh

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Re: Kentucky's Schedule according to Jeff Sagarin PREDICTOR (updated 1/26)

I like seeing these updates as the season moves along.
 
TheDude73

TheDude73

Heisman
Jan 7, 2006
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Re: Kentucky's Schedule according to Jeff Sagarin PREDICTOR (updated 12/30)

Can't believe he'd have us only 13 over Florida, given their latest woes. I highly doubt they'll have them "fixed" by the time UK arrives in town, so this is more likely to be a 20-25 pt slapping.
 
TheDude73

TheDude73

Heisman
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Re: Kentucky's Schedule according to Jeff Sagarin PREDICTOR (updated 1/26)


Originally posted by ukwazoo:
At UF will definitely be our toughest game, I think. They have the talent, it will be their biggest game of the year, the officiating will be typical road game officiating, and they will be jacking up threes like nobody's business.
Posted from Rivals Mobile
Click to expand...
They're 10-9 and have lost 3 games at home, so I'm not sure how anyone could think that this UF team could do any damage to UK, regardless of it being their biggest game. Jacking 3s apparently hasn't helped them thus far. UK by 21+.
 
B

BigBlueFanGA

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Re: Kentucky's Schedule according to Jeff Sagarin PREDICTOR (updated 1/26)

Originally posted by ukwazoo:
At UF will definitely be our toughest game, I think. They have the talent, it will be their biggest game of the year, the officiating will be typical road game officiating, and they will be jacking up threes like nobody's business.
Posted from Rivals Mobile
Click to expand...
They have the talent? No, don't think so, not this year. I think they may have more than one bust. How on earth will they deal with us in the front court? They also can't shoot.

points per game = 180th
rebounds= 203rd
assists= 98th
fg%= 103rd

we are 40th, 10th, 27th and 77th

Their defense is some better but still not good. They have little chance.
 
B

BBallin23

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Re: Kentucky's Schedule according to Jeff Sagarin PREDICTOR (updated 1/26)


There are only 3 games im worried about. At LSU, at Florida, and at Georgia. LSU will be the toughest one IMO.
 
W

WACB

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Re: Kentucky's Schedule according to Jeff Sagarin PREDICTOR (updated 1/30)


Updated 1/30
This post was edited on 2/11 3:30 PM by WACB
 
W

WACB

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Re: Kentucky's Schedule according to Jeff Sagarin PREDICTOR (updated 2/2)


Updated 2/2
 
C

caneintally

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Re: Kentucky's Schedule according to Jeff Sagarin PREDICTOR (updated 1/26)


Originally posted by BigBlueFanGA:
Originally posted by ukwazoo:
At UF will definitely be our toughest game, I think. They have the talent, it will be their biggest game of the year, the officiating will be typical road game officiating, and they will be jacking up threes like nobody's business.
Posted from Rivals Mobile
Click to expand...
They have the talent? No, don't think so, not this year. I think they may have more than one bust. How on earth will they deal with us in the front court? They also can't shoot.

points per game = 180th
rebounds= 203rd
assists= 98th
fg%= 103rd

we are 40th, 10th, 27th and 77th

Their defense is some better but still not good. They have little chance.
Click to expand...
Yeah the problem for UF is THAT THEY DON'T HAVE TALENT. UGA ,LSU , ARKANSAS AND EVEN TEXAS A&M HAVE MORE. Just b/c some is a top 50 recruit doesn't mean they are talented. Walker couldnt be more untalented. Finney-smith and Frazier are good players and thats it.
 
M

MJWilliamson

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Re: Kentucky's Schedule according to Jeff Sagarin PREDICTOR (updated 12/30)

Originally posted by caneintally:

This is correct . What is so funny is he has at UF has our toughest game left and that is such a joke it throws everything else he says out the window IMO. Literally we have 3-4 tougher games left then that as UF blows . They lost Saturday and will lose tonight again. At LSU is out toughest game left followed by at UGA , Arkansas at home , at USC and then At UF .
Click to expand...
Ah yes, how I have missed caneintally's prediction about Florida.

As an aside, I wonder what the chances were this time last year that Florida would win all of the remaining SEC games? Probably not very high. I think UK has a shot to go undefeated and I also think the game @ Florida and the game @ LSU are indeed the two most dangerous ones left.

UK is fortunate this year not to play Arkansas there. They play a brand of basketball that could give UK some trouble, but they are not good on the road.
 
W

WACB

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Re: Kentucky's Schedule according to Jeff Sagarin PREDICTOR (updated 2/6)


Updated 2/6
 
U

ukfan79_rivals214498

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Apr 15, 2007
19,357
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Re: Kentucky's Schedule according to Jeff Sagarin PREDICTOR (updated 2/6)


Looks like the SEC games are typically off by 7-9 points.

So what he says for tomorrow night is 12......will likely be 3-5......or 19-21.
 
W

WACB

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Re: Kentucky's Schedule according to Jeff Sagarin PREDICTOR (updated 2/9)


Updated 2/9
 
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