Layups, FTs and 3's

[CappyNU]

So I know we've been horrific on layups/floaters, FTs and 3-point defense, but I needed to see just how bad. Well...it's awful.

Layup FG%: 55.5, 14th in B1G (1st - Purdue 74.3%, 8th PSU 64.3, 13th Maryland 59.5%)

There are 106 players in the conference who have taken at least 14 layups/floaters, including 9 on our team. Their ranks:

Young, 41st, 64.1% (includes 2-2 on dunks)
Nance, 42nd, 64.0% (includes 8-11 on dunks)
Beran, 59th, 60.6% (includes 5-8 on dunks)
Audige, 76th, 58.1%
Williams, 86th, 53.1%
Buie, 97th, 45.6%
Roper, 98th, 45%
Simmons, 101st, 43.8% (4-4 on dunks, 3-12 on layups)
Greer, 105th, 42.9%

Median player - 61.8%
Top player - Edey, 85.8%

FT% in conference play: 67.1%, 12th in B1G (1st - MSU, 78.2%, 8th - Michigan, 71.0%, 14th - Purdue/Minn, 66.7%)

3-point defense:
FG%: 36.5%, 14th in B1G (1st - Minnesota, 28.7%, 8th - Iowa, 33.0%, 13th - Neb, 36.3%)
3PA%: 41.8%, 13th in B1G (1st, Illinois, 28.7%, 8th - IU, 38.7%, 14th - Purdue, 42.8%)

These three things have cost us a lot of games already.
MSU - 53.8% layups/dunks, 66.7% FT, hitting median levels would have given us 7 extra points, lost by 6
PSU - 44.4% layups/dunks, 66.7% FT, median gives us 4 extra points, lost by 4
@OSU - 45.0% layups/dunks, 44.0% opponent 3pt%, median gives us 8 extra points and takes 3 away from them, lost by 8
MD - 41.1% layups/dunks, median gives us 16 extra points, lost by 7
WI - 51.7% layups, 37.5% FT, 52.9% opponent 3pt%, median gives us 11 extra points and takes away 9 from them, lost by 6
@MI - 61.5% FT, 66.7% opponent 3pt%, median gives us 2 extra points and takes away 12 from them, lost by 2.

Also nearly cost us in our two wins, 41.7% on layups, 43.5% opp 3pt% @MD, 12 point swing there, and 52.4% layups, 58.8% FT, would've given us 6 more points.

Long story short, this is much more of an "if my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle situation", but it just clearly lays out why we are struggling to win games.

 

[NUCat320]

It’s always good to see analysis of the multiple ways in which NU fields a team of basketball players who aren’t as good as the teams of basketball players with which they compete.

Would it count if NU identified as better basketball players? You know, like your uncle?

 

[Sec_112]

Good stuff. Allow me to throw in one more stat.

I thought NU's FT attempted would be poor, but it's very middle of the pack for conference play.

However, guess who is numero uno in opponent FTs attempted? And by a wide margin - 219-188 for 2nd place Iowa. Wisconsin at 6th place in opponent FTs attempted has given their opponents 72 fewer chances at the line in nine games. That somewhat blows my mind in a season riddled with so many no-margin-for-error losses.

Yes, I'll buy a bit of the theory that somehow NU games are called differently. But that only goes so far.

In the end, I'd be surprised if this group was top 1/3 in any conference stat. That's part of the problem. I'm not sure they do ANYTHING well. There's nothing you can really depend on game in and game out.

 

[GatoLouco]

There’s one metric there that can be improved in practice more than others, opponents 3pt, mostly shots allowed. We float way too much. Against MI we stopped doubling Dickinson and they shot only 12 times from 3 (albeit at a ridiculous %).

Start by fixing that and boom, Bob’s your uncle (maybe, just wanted to add to the puns)

 

[CappyNU]

Good stuff. Allow me to throw in one more stat.

I thought NU's FT attempted would be poor, but it's very middle of the pack for conference play.

However, guess who is numero uno in opponent FTs attempted? And by a wide margin - 219-188 for 2nd place Iowa. Wisconsin at 6th place in opponent FTs attempted has given their opponents 72 fewer chances at the line in nine games. That somewhat blows my mind in a season riddled with so many no-margin-for-error losses.

Yes, I'll buy a bit of the theory that somehow NU games are called differently. But that only goes so far.

In the end, I'd be surprised if this group was top 1/3 in any conference stat. That's part of the problem. I'm not sure they do ANYTHING well. There's nothing you can really depend on game in and game out.

Our layup/dunk 2-point FG defense is 2nd in the conference at 54.3%, median is 59.1%, last is 63.5%, and we're 2nd in defensive rebound %, at 24.0%, median is 25.7%, last is 33.1%. We're 3rd in TOs allowed and forced, at 13.0% and 19.4% respectively, median 17.6%/16.1%, last 20.6%/14.6%.

That's all I've got.

 

[Hungry Jack]

So I know we've been horrific on layups/floaters, FTs and 3-point defense, but I needed to see just how bad. Well...it's awful.

Layup FG%: 55.5, 14th in B1G (1st - Purdue 74.3%, 8th PSU 64.3, 13th Maryland 59.5%)

There are 106 players in the conference who have taken at least 14 layups/floaters, including 9 on our team. Their ranks:

Young, 41st, 64.1% (includes 2-2 on dunks)
Nance, 42nd, 64.0% (includes 8-11 on dunks)
Beran, 59th, 60.6% (includes 5-8 on dunks)
Audige, 76th, 58.1%
Williams, 86th, 53.1%
Buie, 97th, 45.6%
Roper, 98th, 45%
Simmons, 101st, 43.8% (4-4 on dunks, 3-12 on layups)
Greer, 105th, 42.9%

Median player - 61.8%
Top player - Edey, 85.8%

FT% in conference play: 67.1%, 12th in B1G (1st - MSU, 78.2%, 8th - Michigan, 71.0%, 14th - Purdue/Minn, 66.7%)

3-point defense:
FG%: 36.5%, 14th in B1G (1st - Minnesota, 28.7%, 8th - Iowa, 33.0%, 13th - Neb, 36.3%)
3PA%: 41.8%, 13th in B1G (1st, Illinois, 28.7%, 8th - IU, 38.7%, 14th - Purdue, 42.8%)

These three things have cost us a lot of games already.
MSU - 53.8% layups/dunks, 66.7% FT, hitting median levels would have given us 7 extra points, lost by 6
PSU - 44.4% layups/dunks, 66.7% FT, median gives us 4 extra points, lost by 4
@OSU - 45.0% layups/dunks, 44.0% opponent 3pt%, median gives us 8 extra points and takes 3 away from them, lost by 8
MD - 41.1% layups/dunks, median gives us 16 extra points, lost by 7
WI - 51.7% layups, 37.5% FT, 52.9% opponent 3pt%, median gives us 11 extra points and takes away 9 from them, lost by 6
@MI - 61.5% FT, 66.7% opponent 3pt%, median gives us 2 extra points and takes away 12 from them, lost by 2.

Also nearly cost us in our two wins, 41.7% on layups, 43.5% opp 3pt% @MD, 12 point swing there, and 52.4% layups, 58.8% FT, would've given us 6 more points.

Long story short, this is much more of an "if my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle situation", but it just clearly lays out why we are struggling to win games.

Basically correlates well with height and hops (Audige has some).

 

[PurpleFaze]

Good stuff. Allow me to throw in one more stat.

I thought NU's FT attempted would be poor, but it's very middle of the pack for conference play.

However, guess who is numero uno in opponent FTs attempted? And by a wide margin - 219-188 for 2nd place Iowa. Wisconsin at 6th place in opponent FTs attempted has given their opponents 72 fewer chances at the line in nine games. That somewhat blows my mind in a season riddled with so many no-margin-for-error losses.

Yes, I'll buy a bit of the theory that somehow NU games are called differently. But that only goes so far.

In the end, I'd be surprised if this group was top 1/3 in any conference stat. That's part of the problem. I'm not sure they do ANYTHING well. There's nothing you can really depend on game in and game out.

Turnovers are low. Not sure of exact rank but at one time our assist/TO was top 10 in the NCAA.

The layup thing has boggled my mind for several years.

 

[GatoLouco]

What is considered a layup? I find that so dubious as it appears it is another way of saying shots in the paint. How contested they are matters a lot

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Part of the problem is that we do so little interior passing and so little cutting to the basket.
I watched the Michigan replay very closely and noticed one thing that surprised me...
When Young and Nance were out there and Young got the ball inside of 10 feet, Nance never cut to the basket, even when he had a clear path and Young was looking at him. Instead, Nance backpedaled to the 3 point line. Beran doesn't do much cutting to the basket either.

Another way to shoot a higher percentage on "layups" would be to play Matt Nicholson more.
Seems rather obvious.

 

[GatoLouco]

Part of the problem is that we do so little interior passing and so little cutting to the basket.
I watched the Michigan replay very closely and noticed one thing that surprised me...
When Young and Nance were out there and Young got the ball inside of 10 feet, Nance never cut to the basket, even when he had a clear path and Young was looking at him. Instead, Nance backpedaled to the 3 point line. Beran doesn't do much cutting to the basket either.

Another way to shoot a higher percentage on "layups" would be to play Matt Nicholson more.
Seems rather obvious.

The only big to big plays I can recall are with Williams on the floor.

Another thought that occurred to me regarding the layup percentages is that it correlates well with my perception of athleticism handicaps. Our bigs can hang, our backcourt only has one player who is not at a disadvantage against whoever guards him. That’s Audige. It’s so evident when Buie gets forced off his driving lanes.

 

[willycat]

NO to Nicholson.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

NO to Nicholson.

As little as Collins has played him, Nicholson is getting the best analytical numbers on the team.
He simply HAS to play more.

His ORtg is 152. Next best is Nance at 117.5, then Elyjah Williams at 110.9.
He's our best rebounder. 12.6 rebounds per 40 minutes. Young 10.7, Nance 8.7.
No turnovers in his 19 minutes in conference.
He has 6.3 assists per 40 minutes, leading the team.

Conference WinShares per 40 minutes, he leads the team at 0.27, followed by Nance at 0.144. Casey Simmons is worst on the team at -0.11.

Most importantly. the only game Nicholson played more than 5 minutes, we won. When he hasn't played 5 minutes, we are 1-7.

 

[SDakaGordie]

Let’s take a ridiculously small sample size and extrapolate it to our desired outcome. Talk about using statistics to your advantage.

 

[PurpleFaze]

What is considered a layup? I find that so dubious as it appears it is another way of saying shots in the paint. How contested they are matters a lot

Not sure about exact numbers but if you’ve watched NU basketball for the past few years I think it’s pretty obvious that we miss a lot of fairly easy to convert close in shots. I’m not counting stuff that is well contested. Case in point… beran

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Let’s take a ridiculously small sample size and extrapolate it to our desired outcome. Talk about using statistics to your advantage.

You can complain about that, but I didn't create the numbers I cited. They are proudly in use over at Basketball-reference.com.
So vent to them.

The larger point is that if anything in a small sample shows promise, you use it more to determine if it is just a fluke or there's actually something there.

You have to know that, right?

 

[GatoLouco]

Not sure about exact numbers but if you’ve watched NU basketball for the past few years I think it’s pretty obvious that we miss a lot of fairly easy to convert close in shots. I’m not counting stuff that is well contested. Case in point… beran

I agree. But, to some extent I think the numbers make some sense. Our bigs are competent around the rim, a bit above average. Our guards, except Audige, have a deficit of athleticism, which leads to problems finishing in the paint.

I am trying to get away from images of, for example, seeing Young miss two easy shots in the last game. Because we notice those a lot. What we notice less is other teams doing the same. That’s where the overall stars come in handy, to try to get away from my NU fan potential bias.

As for Beran, no comment, I’m trying to get away from criticizing him.

 

[SDakaGordie]

You can complain about that, but I didn't create the numbers I cited. They are proudly in use over at Basketball-reference.com.
So vent to them.

The larger point is that if anything in a small sample shows promise, you use it more to determine if it is just a fluke or there's actually something there.

You have to know that, right?

The much more reliable, larger sample size is practice. That’s when guys prove they are not flukes and earn their time in games. Reversion to the mean - are you familiar with that concept?

That being said, I generally like Matt’s play and think he can contribute meaningfully for us in the near future.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

I agree. But, to some extent I think the numbers make some sense. Our bigs are competent around the rim, a bit above average. Our guards, except Audige, have a deficit of athleticism, which leads to problems finishing in the paint.

I am trying to get away from images of, for example, seeing Young miss two easy shots in the last game. Because we notice those a lot. What we notice less is other teams doing the same. That’s where the overall stars come in handy, to try to get away from my NU fan potential bias.

As for Beran, no comment, I’m trying to get away from criticizing him.

Young's issue is that he is at most 6'10 and can't jump.
Against Edey and Cockburn, he is not a good bet to score because he can't get good position.
He has been and will be more effective against everybody else.

Nance and Beran really don't get on the offensive boards like they should. Here are the stats in conference games.

Player	Minutes	Offensive Rebs	ORebs / 20 mins	Position
Ryan Young	185	23	2.5	C
Pete Nance	270	13	1.0	PF
Robbie Beran	241	8	0.7	PF
Chase Audige	279	14	1.0	SF / SG
Julian Roper	152	11	1.4	SF / SG
Elyjah Williams	102	8	1.6	PF
Matt Nicholson	21	3	2.9	C

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

The much more reliable, larger sample size is practice. That’s when guys prove they are not flukes and earn their time in games. Reversion to the mean - are you familiar with that concept?

That being said, I generally like Matt’s play and think he can contribute meaningfully for us in the near future.

Gordie, "reversion to the mean" doesn't apply when you only have a small sample. There is no mean to revert to.

I don't believe the practice theory. For one, Collins has his favorites and is clearly biased toward certain styles (going back years). For all we know, its Young and Williams against Beran and Nance, scrimmage after scrimmage.
This is how I think Collins evaluates his players...

Young can't guard Nance 20 feet from the basket, so Nance is better.
Nance can score over Young in the low post. Young can't score on Nance (who has seen all his moves), so Pete Nance is my starting center.
Beran has a nice looking shot from 24 feet. He is therefore better than Williams and I need him out there.
Nicholson can't score from outside of 5 feet. I can't play him.

It borders on "If we play like I told the guys to play, we won't miss any shots, so why do I need offensive rebounds?"

 

[rwhitney014]

Gordie, "reversion to the mean" doesn't apply when you only have a small sample. There is no mean to revert to.

I don't believe the practice theory. For one, Collins has his favorites and is clearly biased toward certain styles (going back years). For all we know, its Young and Williams against Beran and Nance, scrimmage after scrimmage.
This is how I think Collins evaluates his players...

Young can't guard Nance 20 feet from the basket, so Nance is better.
Nance can score over Young in the low post. Young can't score on Nance (who has seen all his moves), so Pete Nance is my starting center.
Beran has a nice looking shot from 24 feet. He is therefore better than Williams and I need him out there.
Nicholson can't score from outside of 5 feet. I can't play him.

It borders on "If we play like I told the guys to play, we won't miss any shots, so why do I need offensive rebounds?"

What are his fouls/40?

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

What are his fouls/40?

Nicholson leads the team in that category too!
17.1 fouls per 40 minutes!

 

[rwhitney014]

Nicholson leads the team in that category too!
17.1 fouls per 40 minutes!

So there's your issue.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

So there's your issue.

Hardly.
He's a backup.

 

[SDakaGordie]

Gordie, "reversion to the mean" doesn't apply when you only have a small sample. There is no mean to revert to.

I don't believe the practice theory. For one, Collins has his favorites and is clearly biased toward certain styles (going back years). For all we know, its Young and Williams against Beran and Nance, scrimmage after scrimmage.
This is how I think Collins evaluates his players...

Young can't guard Nance 20 feet from the basket, so Nance is better.
Nance can score over Young in the low post. Young can't score on Nance (who has seen all his moves), so Pete Nance is my starting center.
Beran has a nice looking shot from 24 feet. He is therefore better than Williams and I need him out there.
Nicholson can't score from outside of 5 feet. I can't play him.

It borders on "If we play like I told the guys to play, we won't miss any shots, so why do I need offensive rebounds?"

PWB - it’s reversion to the mean during practice - there’s plenty of practice time to assess it. But if you are pre-disposed to thinking Collins is essentially functionally blind during practice, I can’t continue having a discussion.

Also, Ryan Young is truly one one of the easiest guys to defend, as he goes right 90% of the time. And does MN even have an offensive move? (But, no matter, let’s blame it on their D1 college coach for not teaching them these moves).

 

[rwhitney014]

Hardly.
He's a backup.

As little as Collins has played him, Nicholson is getting the best analytical numbers on the team.
He simply HAS to play more.

Pick a lane.

Nicholson doesn't play more because it's against the rules to play with more than 5 fouls.

I've been encouraged by what we've seen in limited minutes, and God bless him for lasting 13 minutes in the one game where truly was no other option than to have him out there for that long. But let's stop pretending like this is a Collins decision here. Nicholson is a developmental player who is showing development, but his propensity for committing fouls is keeping him on the bench no matter what other dynamics might be playing out.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

PWB - it’s reversion to the mean during practice - there’s plenty of practice time to assess it. But if you are pre-disposed to thinking Collins is essentially functionally blind during practice, I can’t continue having a discussion.

Also, Ryan Young is truly one one of the easiest guys to defend, as he goes right 90% of the time. And does MN even have an offensive move? (But, no matter, let’s blame it on their D1 college coach for not teaching them these moves).

I'm not pre-disposed to think anything about Collins.
I definitely don't think he has a clue about post play, thats all.
Thats based on how we run our offense and how he uses his big guys.

Nicholson may have some post move(s) but he may not. If he plays more, I will be able to assess. Grabbing a rebound and dunking it counts, in my book.

All I know about Nicholson is that he's our best rebounder on both ends of the court.
He played well enough against Edey and he played well enough against Cockburn.
In one sequence he battled Cockburn to keep him off the offensive boards, then outran both teams to get a fast break opportunity, got fouled by Cockburn and had Kofi checking to see if his teeth were still in his mouth, that was more than enough for me. The banked in free throw was a bonus.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Pick a lane.

Nicholson doesn't play more because it's against the rules to play with more than 5 fouls.

I've been encouraged by what we've seen in limited minutes, and God bless him for lasting 13 minutes in the one game where truly was no other option than to have him out there for that long. But let's stop pretending like this is a Collins decision here. Nicholson is a developmental player who is showing development, but his propensity for committing fouls is keeping him on the bench no matter what other dynamics might be playing out.

There is a huge difference between "play more" and play 10 minutes a game.
How can it not be a Collins decision? He's the one keeping Young and Nicholson on the bench.
Collins thinks Nance is a Big Ten center. Everybody knows he isn't.

The season is a train wreck because Collins doesn't know how to use his big guys.

 

[rwhitney014]

There is a huge difference between "play more" and play 10 minutes a game.
How can it not be a Collins decision? He's the one keeping Young and Nicholson on the bench.
Collins thinks Nance is a Big Ten center. Everybody knows he isn't.

The season is a train wreck because Collins doesn't know how to use his big guys.

Per his foul rate, he would foul out well more often than not if he played 10 minutes. He does no good for the team being ineligible. His 6.3 assists/40 is...4 assists. All season. His rebound rate is....17 rebounds, 7 of which were against a D-II team.

Look, Nicholson has had some nice moments, and he was a complete revelation against MSU that was a major factor in our win; since then, he has committed 5 fouls in 8 minutes of play. I hope he matures into a Matt Haarms-type player for us. Haarms was another gigantic, exuberant puppy dog as a freshman, except he was able to play 17 minutes and average 2.5 fouls in those games. Even still he didn't post much production until later, because that's how the overwhelming majority of big men careers go in college.

But for a guy who's been posting statistical analysis on this board all year, you're basing an opinion on a) linear extrapolation of data from 43 minutes of play, less than half of which is against Big Ten competition, even though there's zero guarantee those data would simply multiply by the number of minutes played, b) qualitative observations like "had Kofi checking to see if his teeth were still in his mouth" when in fact Cockburn drew three fouls on him in two minutes and c) a scenario from practice that you made up.

Pete Nance is averaging 16 and 7 despite fighting through an injury and banging against the biggest dudes in the league. Young's just shy of 10 and 5. Williams put the best move of anyone on Cockburn and took it to him defensively; he just was giving up too much size to keep it up for an extended period of time, and he missed some shots down the stretch to save our bacon. Anyone can question Collins' decisions all they want at this point, but we've gotten great production from our bigs.

All that said: boiling the results of the season down to the guy who is averaging SEVENTEEN FOULS PER FORTY not seeing the floor enough is hard to fathom. That, more than anything else, is the reason he can't get more minutes.

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

Per his foul rate, he would foul out well more often than not if he played 10 minutes. He does no good for the team being ineligible. His 6.3 assists/40 is...4 assists. All season. His rebound rate is....17 rebounds, 7 of which were against a D-II team.

Look, Nicholson has had some nice moments, and he was a complete revelation against MSU that was a major factor in our win; since then, he has committed 5 fouls in 8 minutes of play. I hope he matures into a Matt Haarms-type player for us. Haarms was another gigantic, exuberant puppy dog as a freshman, except he was able to play 17 minutes and average 2.5 fouls in those games. Even still he didn't post much production until later, because that's how the overwhelming majority of big men careers go in college.

But for a guy who's been posting statistical analysis on this board all year, you're basing an opinion on a) linear extrapolation of data from 43 minutes of play, less than half of which is against Big Ten competition, even though there's zero guarantee those data would simply multiply by the number of minutes played, b) qualitative observations like "had Kofi checking to see if his teeth were still in his mouth" when in fact Cockburn drew three fouls on him in two minutes and c) a scenario from practice that you made up.

Pete Nance is averaging 16 and 7 despite fighting through an injury and banging against the biggest dudes in the league. Young's just shy of 10 and 5. Williams put the best move of anyone on Cockburn and took it to him defensively; he just was giving up too much size to keep it up for an extended period of time, and he missed some shots down the stretch to save our bacon. Anyone can question Collins' decisions all they want at this point, but we've gotten great production from our bigs.

All that said: boiling the results of the season down to the guy who is averaging SEVENTEEN FOULS PER FORTY not seeing the floor enough is hard to fathom. That, more than anything else, is the reason he can't get more minutes.

I appreciate the response, but he were mistaken right out of the blocks. The numbers I cited for Nicholson were his entire "body of work" this year against the Big Ten only. I didn't include his domination of Illinois-Springfield.

Yes, Kofi drew three fouls on Nicholson in 90 seconds. Kofi is a beast to defend. The first foul was garbage. This is where coaching and game experience would help. A guy only learns what college refs are going to call a foul by playing in actual college games. Collins failed Nicholson BADLY in that regard. I know we were working on setting ball screens and padding our stats when we were slaughtering Eastern Illinois, High Point and Fairleigh Dickinson, but a little common sense would help Collins a lot.

When Nicholson ran down the floor, gathered that pass and went up (strong) against the future NBA monster, Nicholson drove his shoulder into Kofi's chin. Hard-nosed, un-intimidated play at its best. Kofi was literally checking his teeth. I have the game recorded. The camera zooms in on Kofi checking his teeth. It happened whether you choose to deny it or not. Compare that to the soft play of Beran and Nance. By the way, we won the Nicholson segment 4-2 and it completely ignited the crowd.

I said quite clearly that I have no idea what Collins does in practice. It would not shock me if we played 5 on 5 scrimmages and guys like Barnhizer and Nicholson stood and watched most of the time. Maybe they sweep the floor or do their homework.

I have said all season that our big guys are the strength of the team and that by playing Beran ahead of Young, Collins was hurting the team. After several games it became pretty clear that Williams was also doing more than Beran.

On a well-coached team, Young is the starting center, Nicholson backs him up. Nance is the starting power forward. Beran is (or was) his backup. Now I think you have to go with Williams as the first backup. Thats why some of us have been hoping that Collins tries Beran at small forward. Guessing he won't.

Your last sentence "boiling the results of the season down to the guy who is averaging SEVENTEEN FOULS PER FORTY not seeing the floor enough is hard to fathom" is complete nonsense. Typical gross mis-characterization of another person's opinion - please don't resort to that. It degrades the discussion.

 

[rwhitney014]

I appreciate the response, but he were mistaken right out of the blocks. The numbers I cited for Nicholson were his entire "body of work" this year against the Big Ten only. I didn't include his domination of Illinois-Springfield.

Yes, Kofi drew three fouls on Nicholson in 90 seconds. Kofi is a beast to defend. The first foul was garbage. This is where coaching and game experience would help. A guy only learns what college refs are going to call a foul by playing in actual college games. Collins failed Nicholson BADLY in that regard. I know we were working on setting ball screens and padding our stats when we were slaughtering Eastern Illinois, High Point and Fairleigh Dickinson, but a little common sense would help Collins a lot.

When Nicholson ran down the floor, gathered that pass and went up (strong) against the future NBA monster, Nicholson drove his shoulder into Kofi's chin. Hard-nosed, un-intimidated play at its best. Kofi was literally checking his teeth. I have the game recorded. The camera zooms in on Kofi checking his teeth. It happened whether you choose to deny it or not. Compare that to the soft play of Beran and Nance. By the way, we won the Nicholson segment 4-2 and it completely ignited the crowd.

I said quite clearly that I have no idea what Collins does in practice. It would not shock me if we played 5 on 5 scrimmages and guys like Barnhizer and Nicholson stood and watched most of the time. Maybe they sweep the floor or do their homework.

I have said all season that our big guys are the strength of the team and that by playing Beran ahead of Young, Collins was hurting the team. After several games it became pretty clear that Williams was also doing more than Beran.

On a well-coached team, Young is the starting center, Nicholson backs him up. Nance is the starting power forward. Beran is (or was) his backup. Now I think you have to go with Williams as the first backup. Thats why some of us have been hoping that Collins tries Beran at small forward. Guessing he won't.

Your last sentence "boiling the results of the season down to the guy who is averaging SEVENTEEN FOULS PER FORTY not seeing the floor enough is hard to fathom" is complete nonsense. Typical gross mis-characterization of another person's opinion - please don't resort to that. It degrades the discussion.

This is an extremely different and more nuanced point than citing stats per 40 of Nicholson’s play in limited time, so I’ll grant you that.

I just think that much of the calling for Nicholson on this board is classic backup QBism. The original thrust of this thread is that we’re leaving points on the table on fast breaks, open 3s and free throws, and that’s why we’re losing. In other words, we’ve been woefully inefficient and inopportune on offense. That I agree with. Is it the players’ fault? Collins’ system arguably put them in position to have those opportunities. Is it Collins’ fault? He’s handpicked all the players, and he needs to get them into a mental state where they loosen up and relax because they are good enough to be right there against excellent competition, home and away. Is it luck? Is it the refs’ fault? Is it admissions’ fault? Is it the students’ fault? Is it the Wilson Club’s fault? Is it Carmody’s fault? Have I missed anyone else whose fault it is?

 

[PurpleWhiteBoy]

This is an extremely different and more nuanced point than citing stats per 40 of Nicholson’s play in limited time, so I’ll grant you that.

I just think that much of the calling for Nicholson on this board is classic backup QBism. The original thrust of this thread is that we’re leaving points on the table on fast breaks, open 3s and free throws, and that’s why we’re losing. In other words, we’ve been woefully inefficient and inopportune on offense. That I agree with. Is it the players’ fault? Collins’ system arguably put them in position to have those opportunities. Is it Collins’ fault? He’s handpicked all the players, and he needs to get them into a mental state where they loosen up and relax because they are good enough to be right there against excellent competition, home and away. Is it luck? Is it the refs’ fault? Is it admissions’ fault? Is it the students’ fault? Is it the Wilson Club’s fault? Is it Carmody’s fault? Have I missed anyone else whose fault it is?

Fair enough. Thanks for the level-headed response. You left out perimeter defense!
Seriously, though, the players have to take some blame. I tend to blame Collins because he's the adult and he's getting paid pretty well.

Admissions aside, they are his players and their ability to perform in the clutch is a split between their own makeups as young men and the effect the coach has on them psychologically, not to mention whatever the coach tells the to do in certain situations.

To me, finding lineups that work well together is one of the coach's main jobs. He chooses the players to put on the court when the game is on the line and that directly affects the odds of success or failure. Then there is variance around that "expected" outcome, sometimes better, sometimes worse.

 

[Catreporter]

i keep waiting for this team to have a hot shooting night (especially from 3) so maybe they can avoid late game jitters . We are just not shooting well enough, especially at home, to win these close games. Missed threes by Greer at the end of games (Maryland and Illinois) were huge as was the missed 3 Saturday by Williams. All were wide open. To start the game, Beran has a great look at a 3 from his spot in the corner, misses, he goes into a shell and the team can't throw it in the ocean for most of the half. Both Illinois and Penn State got big 3s late from a couple of deep on the bench players. We just haven't had that.