Let's talk Oregon

TheWizardofCamelot

All-Conference
Oct 12, 2015
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Two weeks away, the Nits have a bye to help work out any issues ahead of the whiteout. The Ducks take on Oregon St. (they stink) and then will have to make the trek to State College the following weekend. I'm not saying CJF HAS TO win this game, but he HAS TO win this game. Lose here and OSU almost becomes a make it/miss it playoff situation in November - and, not to mention, the narrative around losing big games probably becomes less narrative and more EVIDENCE.

Some things I've noted while watching Oregon:
  • they run the ball first and foremost. They'll use 3 different RBs - Limar, Hill Jr., and Whittingham - and average 250 yards/game and 7 yards/carry
  • Dante Moore has been impressive with a 80% completion rate - they still have a ton of speed on the outside and they get a ton of burn with YAC. He doesn't hold it long at all, the OC looks like he wants to make it easy on him. He's not a runner, but seems mobile enough. He had some points of frustration against Northwestern but was still efficient.
  • Passing game: the ball seems to get spread amongst 5-6ish guys the most. Benson, Moore (True Frosh), Sadiq (TE) seem like the names to know.
  • Offense - they're still fast, establish the run, get the ball out fast in the passing game.
  • Defensively, they lost a lot from last year including DT Harmon. But they still have LB Boettcher & Tuioti and picked up S transfer Dillon Thieneman.
PSU's offense played well last year and we probably have a chance to win if Allar doesn't throw those two picks - he was pretty good outside of those two crucial mistakes. Singleton and Allen both ran crazy for 300 yards - Singleton especially exposed Boettcher in the passing game - and we saw Day & OSU use that film in the CFP.

Knowles went 1-1 vs Oregon last year - they got the best of his defense in October but he took it to them in the CFP. I think one of the biggest storylines going into the game is what will Knowles have in store for Dante Moore in the whiteout, and how does Oregon handle the noise + complex scheme Knowles will bring. I'd imagine Oregon is going to hope their run game travels and give Moore easy throws to the outside + establish the WR screen game. Last year they also found success in the middle of the field between our LBs and safeties. Defensively, they have to be looking at the tape from last year, we gashed them with outside zone all game. The Ducks defense - the tape is out there, we all know this, they're going to try and stop the run and force Allar to beat them. Oregon travels across the country (the difficulties of State College are well documented) and will have to play in the most difficult environment in college football.

Does Allar bring it? He's struggled so far against inferior opponents this season - down the field passing, footwork, and emotions are his weaknesses. Have we been hiding our true identity through 3 weeks? Will the offensive line put it together? Namely getting the next level to allow Singleton/Allen to break off some bigger gains. Do we trust our new WRs? They're going to need to stretch the field vertically if they want to make any room in the box for the run game.

Does BIG GAME JAMES finally break through? Everything lines up for him in this one - veteran roster, whiteout at home, opponent traveling from the West Coast - I can only imagine the pressure he's feeling heading into this game.
 

Erial_Lion

All-Conference
Nov 1, 2021
3,483
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If we go 10-2 with losses to top 5ish teams (maybe even better), then we're extremely unlikely to miss the playoff. The road obviously becomes easier with a win here (especially when factoring in the possibility of a bye/home playoff game), but it's not like we've still got a 4 team playoff.
 
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84lion

All-Conference
Oct 7, 2021
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Does BIG GAME JAMES finally break through?
No. But I strongly urge him and his team to prove me wrong.

Oregon 31, PSU 13

If we go 10-2 with losses to top 5ish teams (maybe even better), then we're extremely unlikely to miss the playoff.
Absolutely. But what's the point of making the playoff if the team can't ever beat top competition?
 

bdgan

All-Conference
Oct 12, 2021
3,651
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Two weeks away, the Nits have a bye to help work out any issues ahead of the whiteout. The Ducks take on Oregon St. (they stink) and then will have to make the trek to State College the following weekend. I'm not saying CJF HAS TO win this game, but he HAS TO win this game. Lose here and OSU almost becomes a make it/miss it playoff situation in November - and, not to mention, the narrative around losing big games probably becomes less narrative and more EVIDENCE.

Some things I've noted while watching Oregon:
  • they run the ball first and foremost. They'll use 3 different RBs - Limar, Hill Jr., and Whittingham - and average 250 yards/game and 7 yards/carry
  • Dante Moore has been impressive with a 80% completion rate - they still have a ton of speed on the outside and they get a ton of burn with YAC. He doesn't hold it long at all, the OC looks like he wants to make it easy on him. He's not a runner, but seems mobile enough. He had some points of frustration against Northwestern but was still efficient.
  • Passing game: the ball seems to get spread amongst 5-6ish guys the most. Benson, Moore (True Frosh), Sadiq (TE) seem like the names to know.
  • Offense - they're still fast, establish the run, get the ball out fast in the passing game.
  • Defensively, they lost a lot from last year including DT Harmon. But they still have LB Boettcher & Tuioti and picked up S transfer Dillon Thieneman.
PSU's offense played well last year and we probably have a chance to win if Allar doesn't throw those two picks - he was pretty good outside of those two crucial mistakes. Singleton and Allen both ran crazy for 300 yards - Singleton especially exposed Boettcher in the passing game - and we saw Day & OSU use that film in the CFP.

Knowles went 1-1 vs Oregon last year - they got the best of his defense in October but he took it to them in the CFP. I think one of the biggest storylines going into the game is what will Knowles have in store for Dante Moore in the whiteout, and how does Oregon handle the noise + complex scheme Knowles will bring. I'd imagine Oregon is going to hope their run game travels and give Moore easy throws to the outside + establish the WR screen game. Last year they also found success in the middle of the field between our LBs and safeties. Defensively, they have to be looking at the tape from last year, we gashed them with outside zone all game. The Ducks defense - the tape is out there, we all know this, they're going to try and stop the run and force Allar to beat them. Oregon travels across the country (the difficulties of State College are well documented) and will have to play in the most difficult environment in college football.

Does Allar bring it? He's struggled so far against inferior opponents this season - down the field passing, footwork, and emotions are his weaknesses. Have we been hiding our true identity through 3 weeks? Will the offensive line put it together? Namely getting the next level to allow Singleton/Allen to break off some bigger gains. Do we trust our new WRs? They're going to need to stretch the field vertically if they want to make any room in the box for the run game.

Does BIG GAME JAMES finally break through? Everything lines up for him in this one - veteran roster, whiteout at home, opponent traveling from the West Coast - I can only imagine the pressure he's feeling heading into this game.
I think they're run first and foremost because that's all they've had to do to beat weak opponents. Even so they've passed for 769 yds and run for 741 yds which is pretty balanced.

Oregon's passing attack:
- Dante Moore 5* prospect, #3 QB
- Dakorien Moore 5* prospect, #1 WR
- Malik Benson high 4* prospect, #1 WR

That's going to be very difficult to beat. Our best bet is that PSU's 5* senior QB can be as good as Oregon's 5* sophomore QB.

The things going in PSU's favor:
- Better defense
- Home field advantage
- An extra week to prepare

Things going in Oregon's favor:
- Absolutely elite QB & WRs
- I think they expects to win big games while PSU hopes to win big games (until they get the monkey of their back)
- More battle tested against NW, Oregon St

Once thing I'm concerned about is PSU's defensive scheme. I don't know if Knowles is different but Pry & Allen followed Franklin's approach of trying for explosive plays. That means lots of blitzing and hoping for sacks, fumbles, and INTs. I worry that PSU will try to apply max pressure to get to Moore but the rush won't get home because of their quick release passes + run after catch by their WRs.
 

bdgan

All-Conference
Oct 12, 2021
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No. But I strongly urge him and his team to prove me wrong.
Oregon 31, PSU 13
PSU fans will lose their minds about Franklin if we lose another big game after being ranked #1/2 in the nation. Especially in a home whiteout game.
 
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TheWizardofCamelot

All-Conference
Oct 12, 2015
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If we go 10-2 with losses to top 5ish teams (maybe even better), then we're extremely unlikely to miss the playoff. The road obviously becomes easier with a win here (especially when factoring in the possibility of a bye/home playoff game), but it's not like we've still got a 4 team playoff.
Maybe we can still make it. But what would our best win be at that point? SOS is going to be pretty bad if you lose to the only two ranked teams you've played.
 
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bdgan

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Maybe we can still make it. But what would our best win be at that point? SOS is going to be pretty bad if you lose to the only two ranked teams you've played.
3 BiG teams and likely 4 BiG teams will make the playoffs. Last year it was OSU, PSU, Oregon, and Indy.

OSU is probably a lock even with 2 losses due to their win over Texas.
Oregon is almost a lock because of their weak schedule. PSU & USC are the only ranked teams.
PSU would be a virtual lock with a win over Oregon or OSU (but I don't expect to beat OSU and Nebraska is no gimme)
INDY and ILL both have a chance. The winner of their head to head match this week will be the leader.
USC definitely has a chance but they really need to beat ILL in 2 weeks with MICH, NEB, & USC still on the schedule.
MICH has a chance but their loss to Oklahoma really hurt. They'll have to win 2 out of 3 vs USC, NEB, and OSU.

That's 7 teams with a chance and at best 4 will make it IMO.
 
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bdgan

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Maybe we can still make it. But what would our best win be at that point? SOS is going to be pretty bad if you lose to the only two ranked teams you've played.
Our best win would be Indiana but that wouldn't be impressive if they lose to Illinois.
 

Erial_Lion

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Nov 1, 2021
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Maybe we can still make it. But what would our best win be at that point? SOS is going to be pretty bad if you lose to the only two ranked teams you've played.
Indiana is currently ranked 19th, and favored over a top 10 team this weekend. They'd likely be the best win. It would be well north of a 50% chance of us making it at 10-2 with losses to Oregon and OSU. And if Indiana goes into the tank, then it's likely Nebraska, who is on the fringes of the top 25.
 

Erial_Lion

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You should revisit Franklin's record the week after a bye against tough competition...
Franklin against ranked teams in his coaching career with additional time to prepare (bowl game, bye, 1st game of season)...

10/8/11 (Vandy) - 29 point underdog against Alabama, lost 34-0
10/19/13 (Vandy) - 6.5 point underdog against Georgia, won 31-27
10/25/14 - 14 point underdog against Ohio St, lost in OT 31-24
11/21/15 - 3.5 point underdog against Michigan, lost 28-16
10/22/16 - 17.5 point underdog against Ohio St, won 24-21
1/2/17 - 7 point underdog against USC, lost 52-49
10/21/17 - 7.5 point favorite against Michigan, won 42-13
12/30/17 - 3 point favorite against Washington, won 35-28
1/1/19 - 4.5 point favorite against Kentucky, lost 27-24
11/9/19 - 6.5 point favorite against Minnesota, lost 31-26
12/28/19 - 7 point favorite against Memphis, won 53-39
9/4/21 - 5.5 point underdog against Wisconsin, won 16-10
1/1/22 - 1.5 point underdog against Arkansas, lost 24-10
10/15/22 - 6.5 point underdog against Michigan, lost 41-17
1/2/23 - 3 point underdog against Utah, won 35-21
12/30/23 - 6 point favorite against Mississippi, lost 38-25
12/21/24 - 9 point favorite against SMU, won 38-10
Excluded Boise St (10 days) and Notre Dame (9 days) last season

Was a favorite 7 times and an underdog 10 times...record of 8-9. ATS record of 10-7.

Is there something in there that should tell us that Franklin having added time to prepare is a negative?
 

TheBigUglies

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Oct 26, 2021
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I am worried. However, just put the ball down and lets find out.

I do like our homefield advantage and Oregon needs to make the cross country trip and we have a bye week.

I don't like how we struggled with less competitive opponents the first 3 games.
 

BobPSU92

Heisman
Aug 22, 2001
42,500
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Franklin against ranked teams in his coaching career with additional time to prepare (bowl game, bye, 1st game of season)...

10/8/11 (Vandy) - 29 point underdog against Alabama, lost 34-0
10/19/13 (Vandy) - 6.5 point underdog against Georgia, won 31-27
10/25/14 - 14 point underdog against Ohio St, lost in OT 31-24
11/21/15 - 3.5 point underdog against Michigan, lost 28-16
10/22/16 - 17.5 point underdog against Ohio St, won 24-21
1/2/17 - 7 point underdog against USC, lost 52-49
10/21/17 - 7.5 point favorite against Michigan, won 42-13
12/30/17 - 3 point favorite against Washington, won 35-28
1/1/19 - 4.5 point favorite against Kentucky, lost 27-24
11/9/19 - 6.5 point favorite against Minnesota, lost 31-26
12/28/19 - 7 point favorite against Memphis, won 53-39
9/4/21 - 5.5 point underdog against Wisconsin, won 16-10
1/1/22 - 1.5 point underdog against Arkansas, lost 24-10
10/15/22 - 6.5 point underdog against Michigan, lost 41-17
1/2/23 - 3 point underdog against Utah, won 35-21
12/30/23 - 6 point favorite against Mississippi, lost 38-25
12/21/24 - 9 point favorite against SMU, won 38-10
Excluded Boise St (10 days) and Notre Dame (9 days) last season

Was a favorite 7 times and an underdog 10 times...record of 8-9. ATS record of 10-7.

Is there something in there that should tell us that Franklin having added time to prepare is a negative?

Facts have no place here. They ruin the vibe.
 

WaffleShopper

Senior
Sep 20, 2023
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Franklin against ranked teams in his coaching career with additional time to prepare (bowl game, bye, 1st game of season)...

10/8/11 (Vandy) - 29 point underdog against Alabama, lost 34-0
10/19/13 (Vandy) - 6.5 point underdog against Georgia, won 31-27
10/25/14 - 14 point underdog against Ohio St, lost in OT 31-24
11/21/15 - 3.5 point underdog against Michigan, lost 28-16
10/22/16 - 17.5 point underdog against Ohio St, won 24-21
1/2/17 - 7 point underdog against USC, lost 52-49
10/21/17 - 7.5 point favorite against Michigan, won 42-13
12/30/17 - 3 point favorite against Washington, won 35-28
1/1/19 - 4.5 point favorite against Kentucky, lost 27-24
11/9/19 - 6.5 point favorite against Minnesota, lost 31-26
12/28/19 - 7 point favorite against Memphis, won 53-39
9/4/21 - 5.5 point underdog against Wisconsin, won 16-10
1/1/22 - 1.5 point underdog against Arkansas, lost 24-10
10/15/22 - 6.5 point underdog against Michigan, lost 41-17
1/2/23 - 3 point underdog against Utah, won 35-21
12/30/23 - 6 point favorite against Mississippi, lost 38-25
12/21/24 - 9 point favorite against SMU, won 38-10
Excluded Boise St (10 days) and Notre Dame (9 days) last season

Was a favorite 7 times and an underdog 10 times...record of 8-9. ATS record of 10-7.

Is there something in there that should tell us that Franklin having added time to prepare is a negative?
There’s not much in there, but I do see you left off the games against unranked teams. Here are some fond memories:
2014 @ unranked Mich - loss
2018 vs unranked MSU - loss
2021 vs unranked ILL - loss
 
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Erial_Lion

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There’s not much in there, but I do see you left off the games against unranked teams. Here are some fond memories:
2014 @ unranked Mich - loss
2018 vs unranked MSU - loss
2021 vs unranked ILL - loss
I was told that "You should revisit Franklin's record the week after a bye against tough competition". So that's what I did.
 
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PSU87

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Jun 8, 2001
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The three time zone trip is on our side. I can recall lots of times seeing teams struggle with it.

Going way back.... remember a very, very good 1991 PSU going out to play a mediocre USC team and laying an egg?

Jet lag is a real thing, even for 20 year olds.
 
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PSUSignore

All-Conference
May 29, 2001
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No. But I strongly urge him and his team to prove me wrong.

Oregon 31, PSU 13


Absolutely. But what's the point of making the playoff if the team can't ever beat top competition?
That would be the largest margin of victory in a loss in Whiteout history. I don't see that happening, even in a loss.
 

Nitlion93

Freshman
Jan 12, 2006
44
50
18
I’m attending a wedding the night of the game. The ceremony will be over but the celebration will be ongoing. What’s the etiquette here? Is it okay to watch on my phone? Should I leave early? I dropped a hint to the bride (friend of my daughter) to see if there’s a TV onsite that will show the game.
 
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BeerLion

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Oct 12, 2021
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I’m attending a wedding the night of the game. The ceremony will be over but the celebration will be ongoing. What’s the etiquette here? Is it okay to watch on my phone? Should I leave early? I dropped a hint to the bride (friend of my daughter) to see if there’s a TV onsite that will show the game.
If you go to the wedding, have fun at the wedding and forget about the game. Either record the game or look up the score later. But if you have to watch the game live, don't bother going to the wedding. I think it would be rude to be at the reception and staring at your phone or looking for a place to watch the game. Just my 2c
 

VaDave4PSU

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Aug 19, 2003
2,071
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Maybe we can still make it. But what would our best win be at that point? SOS is going to be pretty bad if you lose to the only two ranked teams you've played.

Indiana should be ranked when we play them. Nebraska as well. Unless both crap the bed. The Big 10 is top heavy. We also miss Michigan, Illinois, and USC.
 

PSUSignore

All-Conference
May 29, 2001
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If you go to the wedding, have fun at the wedding and forget about the game. Either record the game or look up the score later. But if you have to watch the game live, don't bother going to the wedding. I think it would be rude to be at the reception and staring at your phone or looking for a place to watch the game. Just my 2c
It was rude to schedule a wedding during the biggest home game of the year. My 2c. :ROFLMAO:

I'd probably record the game to watch later without looking at scores, which is hard for a game of this magnitude, or I'd be checking in on my phone at the reception very often. Maybe there's a TV in the kitchen where you can watch with the staff.
 

leinbacker

All-Conference
May 29, 2001
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Oh thank god, the 17th Oregon scouting report of the week just dropped. I was getting nervous that the Ducks might sneak into Beaver Stadium unnoticed, carrying 250 rushing yards and a 7-yard average in their back pockets like some kind of football heist crew.

Look, I love a good hype post as much as the next guy, but let’s pump the brakes on turning Dante Moore into the second coming of Joe Burrow because he threw 80% against Northwestern. The dude gets the ball out quick — great — but he’s about to get introduced to Knowles’ patented “What the hell am I looking at?” defensive scheme with 110,000 white-clad lunatics turning every audible into a game of charades.

Also, love how we’re still using last year’s outside zone clinic as gospel, as if Oregon won’t have watched that tape on a loop since spring camp. You don’t think they’re coming in saying “hey, maybe don’t let Singleton roast our linebackers in space again”? Spoiler alert: they are.

And Allar? Yeah, he's been uneven. But pretending like he hasn’t had a leash tighter than a toddler at the zoo is disingenuous. Maybe — just maybe — this is the week they let the five-star actually throw beyond 10 yards without checking with the analytics guy in the booth first.

Bottom line: CJF doesn’t “have” to win this game because of the playoff math. He has to win it because the fan base will melt into a puddle of existential crisis if another Top 10 matchup turns into “almost had it.” And honestly? I’m here for it — fire up the AI, let’s simulate 10,000 versions of this game and argue about every one.
 

VaDave4PSU

All-Conference
Aug 19, 2003
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let’s pump the brakes on turning Dante Moore into the second coming of Joe Burrow because he threw 80% against Northwestern.

Bottom line: CJF doesn’t “have” to win this game because of the playoff math. He has to win it because the fan base will melt into a puddle of existential crisis if another Top 10 matchup turns into “almost had it.” And honestly? I’m here for it — fire up the AI, let’s simulate 10,000 versions of this game and argue about every one.

Finally, a post with some balls!

Haha

I dig it.
 

LMTLION

All-Conference
Mar 20, 2008
1,057
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I’m attending a wedding the night of the game. The ceremony will be over but the celebration will be ongoing. What’s the etiquette here? Is it okay to watch on my phone? Should I leave early? I dropped a hint to the bride (friend of my daughter) to see if there’s a TV onsite that will show the game.
I’m serious that I would potentially fake flu or covid. The game is too important! Unless it is your own wedding or one of your kids the game is more important! If you are not willing to do that you need to stream on your phone. I have streamed many games through family events and even a trip through the pumpkin patch and hay ride.
 

KingLando

All-Conference
Nov 29, 2021
4,374
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I’m attending a wedding the night of the game. The ceremony will be over but the celebration will be ongoing. What’s the etiquette here? Is it okay to watch on my phone? Should I leave early? I dropped a hint to the bride (friend of my daughter) to see if there’s a TV onsite that will show the game.
Yes, I've watched plenty of SC playoff games on my phone for weddings I had to attend
If this wedding is for "the friend of your daughter" I'd be going to the ceremony, grab some food, give a nice gift and head out
 
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PSU87

All-Conference
Jun 8, 2001
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I’m attending a wedding the night of the game. The ceremony will be over but the celebration will be ongoing. What’s the etiquette here? Is it okay to watch on my phone? Should I leave early? I dropped a hint to the bride (friend of my daughter) to see if there’s a TV onsite that will show the game.
30 years ago me: "Enjoy your nuptials, I'll send something from the registry"
20 years ago me: "I'll be there for the ceremony, but if the game ain't on at the reception I'm out"
10 years ago me: At the reception but finding a way to watch on my phone.
Now me: DVR it, check the score....if we win watch, if we lose delete
 

PSUForever

All-Conference
Feb 17, 2007
1,034
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I’m attending a wedding the night of the game. The ceremony will be over but the celebration will be ongoing. What’s the etiquette here? Is it okay to watch on my phone? Should I leave early? I dropped a hint to the bride (friend of my daughter) to see if there’s a TV onsite that will show the game.
Turn off your phone and record the game. Enjoy the wedding. If you are on EST then maybe you get home at 11pm and then watch the recording. You can fly through all the commercials. Tell anyone who knows you are a PSU fan and who may spill the beans on the score to not mention anything about the game.
 
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Nittering Nabob

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Sep 17, 2024
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I’m attending a wedding the night of the game. The ceremony will be over but the celebration will be ongoing. What’s the etiquette here? Is it okay to watch on my phone? Should I leave early? I dropped a hint to the bride (friend of my daughter) to see if there’s a TV onsite that will show the game.
Watching on your phone is perfectly acceptable.

Other guests might wonder what you’re doing with your left hand under the table, but that’s on them 😎
 
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