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Looking at Duke's recent history does it prove that the one and done mentality won't cut it anymore.

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Ryan Lemonds Hair

Heisman
May 31, 2018
15,257
30,635
98
Going back to Duke's last title in 2015 they have had 6 of the 10 seasons with at least 3 draft picks and still didn't win the title. In 2017 they had 5 drafted, 2018 they had 4, 2019 they had 3, 2020 they had 3, 2022 they had 5 and this year will have at least 4 and more than likely 5. Two of those years included what most media want you to believe to be the biggest recruits ever in Zion and Cooper. Does this just confirm that having NBA level talent doesn't equate to winning a title if they are young, that K and Scheyer have underachieved possibly more than even Cal or is it that the NCAA tournament is just random?
 
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MidseasonTweaks

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One and done has been done for awhile now. If you can't win a championship with Williamson or Flagg, you might as well stop trying. I actually hope Duke keeps trying to recruit as many 5 stars as possible knowing they'll flame out in the tourney. I like Pope's approach so far.
 
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LineSkiCat14

LineSkiCat14

Heisman
Aug 5, 2015
37,317
57,162
113
What others said, but also

1. Scheyer isn't that good of a coach
2. If Duke isn't getting the calls that they get at home, it makes it tougher to play through it on a neutral site (see Kansas tournament woes as well)
3. The game is no longer about sheer athleticism and getting to the rack with speed and power. That style died 10 years ago. Now, everyone has to be able to shoot and thats something that takes time, and lends itself to more experienced teams with proven shooters, instead of an unproven 5-star recruit who has used his athleticism to dominate in HS.
 
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*Fox2Monk*

*Fox2Monk*

Heisman
Jun 10, 2009
39,851
69,546
113
Creed Bratton said:
Going back to Duke's last title in 2015 they have had 6 of the 10 seasons with at least 3 draft picks and still didn't win the title. In 2017 they had 5 drafted, 2018 they had 4, 2019 they had 3, 2020 they had 3, 2022 they had 5 and this year will have at least 4 and more than likely 5. Two of those years included what most media want you to believe to be the biggest recruits ever in Zion and Cooper. Does this just confirm that having NBA level talent doesn't equate to winning a title if they are young, that K and Scheyer have underachieved possibly more than even Cal or is it that the NCAA tournament is just random?
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They had a team capable of winning it and probably should have. Winning titles are hard but eventually you stack talent and get them to play like last year it will fall the right way eventually. It’s probably not the safest strategy but if you surround said talent with talented vets in the portal then you have an elite squad.
 
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T

trueblujr

Heisman
Dec 14, 2005
29,881
93,787
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cathouse said:
Many UK fans knew one and done was a losing formula since 2010.
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Well I wouldn't say since 2010, we had a pretty solid run up relying on it until about 2017. I think the Portal and NIL, have changed that landscape and We don't even really have to look at Duke to see it, we can look no further than our own program to see how going the OND route is no longer effective and building a roster of more seasoned and mature players is the way to go now. Obviously you still take a stud or two if you can land them, but don't build your success around them.
 
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billoliver40

All-American
Dec 16, 2015
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Whether we want to admit it or not, winning the NCAA tourney is normally incredibly difficult and wildly unpredictable. Both Pitino and Izzo have said a Final Four is the true test, and anything can happen after that.
With the transfer portal, NIL and the talent balance in basketball, a finish in the Elite 8 is a pretty major accomplishment.
 
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HCaulfield

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Aug 26, 2014
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UK90 said:
The one and done model died with NIL. It is thoroughly obsolete now that talented older players …and even experienced pros from overseas …have a financial incentive to stay in CBB for a good long time.
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Yep. Schools are now are able to go after anyone, not just high school McDonalds AAs.
 
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RunninRichie

RunninRichie

Heisman
Sep 5, 2019
26,369
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UK90 said:
The one and done model died with NIL. It is thoroughly obsolete now that talented older players …and even experienced pros from overseas …have a financial incentive to stay in CBB for a good long time.
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/thread.
 
T

Trinity45

All-Conference
Oct 26, 2005
3,068
4,765
113
Creed Bratton said:
Going back to Duke's last title in 2015 they have had 6 of the 10 seasons with at least 3 draft picks and still didn't win the title. In 2017 they had 5 drafted, 2018 they had 4, 2019 they had 3, 2020 they had 3, 2022 they had 5 and this year will have at least 4 and more than likely 5. Two of those years included what most media want you to believe to be the biggest recruits ever in Zion and Cooper. Does this just confirm that having NBA level talent doesn't equate to winning a title if they are young, that K and Scheyer have underachieved possibly more than even Cal or is it that the NCAA tournament is just random?
Click to expand...
Trying to win with mostly freshmen, against 3,4 and 5 year players teams get from the portal is almost impossible. You would need some very transcendent freshmen.
 
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uk78_rivals88018

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Feb 6, 2003
12,401
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Flagg was a phenomenal player who helped Duke win a lot of games. He also twice in crunch time came up short. Turn-over against Kentucky and shot the ball short against Houston. There are rare times you have someone like Anthony Davis, Flagg, or similar Freshman that are truly elite level. So, relying on 5 star Freshman out of High School versus seniors or experienced college players has not been successful unless those one or two special Freshman are surrounded by that experienced talent. Plus now with NIL it isn't even about players staying at your own program.
 
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DaDirtyLeb69

DaDirtyLeb69

Heisman
Jan 4, 2022
36,067
57,259
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No, not at all. I think it proves scheyer can’t hack it in the big moment. Those Duke teams were loaded and great.
 
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bucsrule8872

Heisman
May 30, 2005
24,397
29,352
0
The only teams to win it all led by Freshmen OAD talent were UK in 2012 and Duke in 2015.

Those teams all had upperclassmen that helped them along, so I am not even sure they should be counted.

Was the era of OAD dominance ever really a thing?

Two titles in roughly 20 years?

Not exactly dominance.

It looks like the OAD mentality never really worked.
 
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gracetoyou

Heisman
Apr 19, 2009
18,771
26,404
113
Creed Bratton said:
Going back to Duke's last title in 2015 they have had 6 of the 10 seasons with at least 3 draft picks and still didn't win the title. In 2017 they had 5 drafted, 2018 they had 4, 2019 they had 3, 2020 they had 3, 2022 they had 5 and this year will have at least 4 and more than likely 5. Two of those years included what most media want you to believe to be the biggest recruits ever in Zion and Cooper. Does this just confirm that having NBA level talent doesn't equate to winning a title if they are young, that K and Scheyer have underachieved possibly more than even Cal or is it that the NCAA tournament is just random?
Click to expand...

Yes! Criticism of Cal's talent & only 1 championship should be applied to Duke as well.
 
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DaDirtyLeb69

DaDirtyLeb69

Heisman
Jan 4, 2022
36,067
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Creed Bratton said:
Only 1 of those teams were coached by Scheyer and the other 5 were K's teams though.
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Yes, but scheyer has gotten them an elite 8 and final 4, so he has had success. The model can work. Duke should have won this years title, but the coaching let them down
 
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flacat22

flacat22

Heisman
Mar 12, 2011
8,403
12,070
113
uk78 said:
Flagg was a phenomenal player who helped Duke win a lot of games. He also twice in crunch time came up short. Turn-over against Kentucky and shot the ball short against Houston. There are rare times you have someone like Anthony Davis, Flagg, or similar Freshman that are truly elite level. So, relying on 5 star Freshman out of High School versus seniors or experienced college players has not been successful unless those one or two special Freshman are surrounded by that experienced talent. Plus now with NIL it isn't even about players staying at your own program.
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Three times. Pissed down his leg in a similar late game situation at Clemson. Damn near identical to his UK choke.
 
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CRZ4UK

CRZ4UK

All-American
Jun 6, 2008
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jrpross said:
Winning a championship takes four things

1. Talent
2. Experience
3. Coaching
4. Luck

Number 4 makes everything impossible to predict with any certainty. All you can do is amass the first 3 as best you can and hope for the best.
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You forgot not getting unfavorable officiating.
If UK runs into Shows, Surmons, Ayers or Ogelsby in the tournament we are gone.
I would have added Pat Adam’s but I don’t think he has a UK bias. He is just a terrible official
 
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steelman100

Sophomore
Oct 26, 2023
224
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Creed Bratton said:
Going back to Duke's last title in 2015 they have had 6 of the 10 seasons with at least 3 draft picks and still didn't win the title. In 2017 they had 5 drafted, 2018 they had 4, 2019 they had 3, 2020 they had 3, 2022 they had 5 and this year will have at least 4 and more than likely 5. Two of those years included what most media want you to believe to be the biggest recruits ever in Zion and Cooper. Does this just confirm that having NBA level talent doesn't equate to winning a title if they are young, that K and Scheyer have underachieved possibly more than even Cal or is it that the NCAA tournament is just random?
Click to expand...
Cooper seemed to fall Apart crunch time
 
Runt#1969

Runt#1969

All-American
Dec 13, 2010
20,410
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Lots of great points in this thread. I'll go with talent surrounded by experienced players is the key, for sustained success now. An overreliance on freshman talent in today's era is a recipe for failure.

jrpross said:
Winning a championship takes four things

1. Talent
2. Experience
3. Coaching
4. Luck

Number 4 makes everything impossible to predict with any certainty. All you can do is amass the first 3 as best you can and hope for the best.
Click to expand...
that's the best response right there.

Coaching is as important as anything else, really. Let's face it, had Scheyer and his freshman laden team not collectively shat the bed at crunch time when the game was basically already won, dUKe would have won the title, and we would not be having this conversation. Or at least the dynamic would be much different as to if that approach is viable in today's era.

His failure last season underscores the importance of coaching, as much as anything.

In a one and done elimination tournament, anything can happen, so I am not sure if there is ever going to be anything other than bullet points 1,2,3,and 4 that means anything more.

Unless you are Kentucky.

then add bullet point #5 : Officiating.

'nuff said
 
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B

Blue till I die

All-Conference
Dec 20, 2004
1,518
2,854
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oldsports_ said:
Cal taught us that himself. Other than Duke, no one has **** the bed more than Cal with 5*s
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***I will fix this for you:

No one has been more successful with 5 star freshman than Calipari

Well, at least from 2009-2018

Add up Calipari's NCAA tournament wins and wins against the seed line, no one was even close to what Calipari did
 
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HogFan2012

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May 1, 2024
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You can win with a mixture of both or all of one kind.
You can loose because of a couple of bad matchups, fouls, bad night, the other team was just red hot, ETC on and on...............
 
D

Dirk2Bowie

Senior
Mar 2, 2008
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jrpross said:
Winning a championship takes four things

1. Talent
2. Experience
3. Coaching
4. Luck
Click to expand...
Also
1. Extreme Talent
2. Coaching
3 LUCK

I don't think just because 3 freshmen starters haven't won it recently that it's a impossibility. The other few hundred programs didn't win it either.
 
M

mhs1964

Sophomore
Feb 8, 2018
132
144
38
It’s not just experience. It’s tournament experience with previous deep runs. Our 1998 champs are a perfect example but so were 1978 and 2012. I can’t remember if the 96 team had vets that had at least got to an elite 8 game.
 
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oldsports_

Heisman
Dec 18, 2010
22,806
38,914
113
cbrwalt said:
***I will fix this for you:

No one has been more successful with 5 star freshman than Calipari

Well, at least from 2009-2018

Add up Calipari's NCAA tournament wins and wins against the seed line, no one was even close to what Calipari did
Click to expand...
Yay?
1 title with all that talent. Pretty pathetic, just saying.
 
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bowfreak_rivals210117

All-Conference
Mar 26, 2009
1,664
2,641
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Whatever your flavor is, the best way to win is to constantly be in the mix. Elite 8s need to be a given with Final 4 runs possible every year. Eventually the ball bounces your way and you win. Duke is in this category. As long as Sampson is at Houston they are in the mix. UCONN is not going anywhere either. UK should be elite and is expected to be with Pope. KU should be and looks lost. UNC should be and they look like they don't have a prayer to get back there with Hubert Davis at the helm.

I am curious who the new players are going to be with NIL. Florida, Bama, Auburn are right there knocking on the door but I feel they are a notch away from being consistently elite. I think they are going to need hard reset years every few years. They will always be good but will have years where they are top 20 at best. UT has Barnes who is a great coach but always loses when it counts because they don't put the ball in the hoop. It remains to be seen what BYU can do with their purse. Arkansas has money but also has Cal. SJU supposedly has NIL and they have Pitino. This could be a consistent recipe for winning.
 
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