Anyone else feel like we are at a tipping point for the season? I know we haven't reached the midpoint of the conference slate, but NU has shown a tendency to let losses snowball into season killing losing streaks. Michigan played great against IU but has underperformed this year. We've lost 6 of our last 7 and even just from an optics stand point we need to stay above .500 We have a tough game with #17 Illinois after this one. To show meaningful progress this year, we need to win these types of games and stop these streaks.
Michigan Game Make or Break?
- Thread starter 7th Cir. Cat
- Start date
I would categorize the next two games as “must win”. Starting 4-6 with two top 20 victories would give NU a base to work from if they want to entertain thoughts of postseason play.
The home losses to Penn State and Maryland really sting.
To hit .500 for the season, NU needs a 7-5 finish with their customary day one tourney loss, or 6-6 with a day one victory.
Either is a steep climb. A loss against Michigan makes it steeper.
Penn State and Maryland were must wins. So is this one. Do with that what you will.
Either is a steep climb. A loss against Michigan makes it steeper.
Penn State and Maryland were must wins. So is this one. Do with that what you will.
You're more positive than I am at this point, 7th Cir. I hope you're right.
However, there have been four winnable B10 losses. If they had even pulled out one of those games, I might be more with you.
OTOH, the most difficult part of the schedule is behind them.
Just win at Michigan and let's go from there.
However, there have been four winnable B10 losses. If they had even pulled out one of those games, I might be more with you.
OTOH, the most difficult part of the schedule is behind them.
Just win at Michigan and let's go from there.
At this point I'm not sure Boo, Audige, and Nance have what it takes to lead this team to the Dance. I like our depth and role players, but we need more consistent play from our top players. We don't need Boo driving the lane and losing the ball multiple times or heaving up airballs down the stretch. Or Audige shooting 1-8 (0-5 3pt). Or Nance getting in foul trouble and being invisible. When we put it together, we can beat almost anyone. Sadly we don't get it done when it matters.
Everything you said makes sense, except for the part about Buie. He's our PG and this season he's averaging 15 points; 5 assists and 2.2 turnovers per game. Last year Buie averaged 2.0 TOs per game.
For the sake of comparison, Bryant McIntosh never once averaged 15 points for an entire season and his Junior he averaged 2.7 TOs per game and his senior year he averaged 2.6 TOs and 11.8ppg.
I'm not suggesting that Buie is better than McIntosh, but I am suggesting that Buie is not the main (or even secondary) problem with this year's team. Yesterday was a great example, Buie was 5-8 from 3 and did his best to keep us in the game, but he's not going to be able to be beat good teams by himself.
Why do you blame the players and not even mention the coach?
Audige had a bad game against Purdue.
I'm going to assume he is banged up physically.
Nance got into foul trouble against Purdue.
"Somebody" decided to make him guard Zach Edey. He got into foul trouble, which is exactly what (almost) anybody would expect.
"Hey Pete, I know you are giving away 6 inches and 80 lbs to this guy, but stop him from scoring."
It hurt us on both ends of the floor.
That is entirely on Collins, who had at least 2 other options and chose the dumbest one.
No arguing that Boo has good numbers, but at crunch time he hasn't been getting it done. While he did hit 3 straight 3-pointers to keep us close, he misses a layup at 5:55 that would've cut the lead to 8 (and Stefanovic follows with a 3), then airballs a 3-point shot at 4:31 that could've cut it again to 8. It's not only Buie who cost us the game, we always seem to miss some good looks during the stretch run. It's a mental hump that we've been unable to overcome.
I'll leave the Collins blaming to you, I think you have that covered pretty well.
I already did, before the game.
But I guess you missed it.
Thats okay.
Most coaches go out of their way to avoid putting their best player at a huge physical disadvantage on defense.
Collins has two true centers on his roster - Young and Nicholson.
Either of those guys was a better choice to defend Edey. Not that they would stop him, but at least Nance wouldn't be getting pushed around and collecting fouls, taking him off the floor and wearing him out.
In fact, when either Nicholson or Young was on the court with Nance, we played Purdue to a 15-15 draw.
Robbie Hummel specifically elaborated on this during the broadcast. "You give away all of your advantages on offense by playing Nance at the 5 against Edey...." and so on.
I guess you didn't watch the game or had the sound turned off?
If we go 6-6 the rest of the way we'll finish 15-14, which will put us at the .500 mark even if we then lose the BTT opener. While the UIS game does not count toward our postseason resume, it does count toward our overall record.
Do you recall Williams eating Young for lunch? (I won’t bother mentioning Nicholson as a possible answer, as he is not). So, we effectively had no one who could handle those two.
Better players win games. And that continues to be more and more true. Basketball is so much more of a game where individual talent matters than it used to be. That’s the way the game is played when these guys are more athletic and bigger than ever and still playing in a court that has never changed size. These individual matchups are what cause opponents to get fouls they should not, cause opponents to make turnovers, make their own big shots or big defensive plays at key moments, get to the line more and make more free throws, etc. That dominates any special mix of substitution that a coach can create.
By the way, 15–15 is only because Nance shot amazingly well in the many fewer minutes he played then normal. Recall, Young was -16.
Purdue had better players playing at home coming off a loss. Let’s flush it. While I doubt we will make the tournament now more than ever so far this year, I count 8 games left that we have a solid chance. Go Cats!
There's a couple of B1G teams they could or should beat from here on, and they need to do that. If they don't, my take on Collins will change. If the team can play that well against MSU, and Wisconsin even in the loss, further losses against beatable teams will suggest inconsistent coaching ability. However, before changing coaches again, the effect of admissions on basketball success needs to be scrutinized. If we simply cannot win in the B1G, given the status quo, what coach that could win would come to NU?
The Cats just don’t have any player that can defend a dominant big man. Mutumbo is not riding in off the bench to the rescue. I would try to limit the other players, especially on kick out threes.
gee guess I didn't realize that Collins was banged up physically, got into foul trouble and was too short and skinny. Just dumb statements from PWB!
I wonder if other schools' fans have similar disputes over whether losing is a function of bad coaching or not so good players players? I would bet there are very few other schools where admissions is blamed for losing, and that this is pretty much unique to NU. Fact is, if you are gonna compete at the highest levels in the major sports, you gotta have the players.
Gordie:
Trevion Williams is considered an NBA player, but I think you may have missed my point.
Nance should not have been guarding Edey because it was inevitable that Nance would get into foul trouble and would not be able to stop Edey anyhow. And thats exactly what happened. Before the first tv timeout, Edey was simply manhandling Nance on the offensive boards and Robbie Hummel was incredulously wondering why Collins was making Nance guard Edey.
No, Nance did not "shoot amazingly well" when he was paired with Young. He made one basket, it was somewhat lucky. Nance is our best scorer. The whole point of playing Nance and Young together is to free up Nance to score and to improve our rebounding. So its inaccurate to say the reason "Nance and Young" was effective was because Nance "shot amazingly well."
No, Williams did not eat Young for lunch. He was 5-11 from the field for the game and grabbed 1 offensive rebound, 9 defensive rebounds. one assist, zero steals, 2 turnovers. Certainly not a glaring mismatch. You are remembering two scoring plays and ignoring the rest of the game.
When Nicholson played alongside Nance, we played well. To refresh your memory, Nicholson came in for Young with 11:00 left in the first half. Nance was in the game. We were trailing 17-11. Edey guarded Nicholson. Nance immediately scored a 10 footer over Caleb Furst, the 6'10" freshman. Purdue came back down, Edey set a screen then rolled to the basket. Nicholson went with Edey and Nance left Furst alone at the top of the key. Furst drained a wide open 3. NU got the ball inside to Nicholson who went straight at Edey. A Purdue guard fouled Nicholson on his way up. Nicholson made both free throws. Purdue fed Edey in the paint and he went up for a left handed hook over Nicholson, shot missed. Nance rebounded. Hummel said "Nice job by Matthew Nicholson, holding his ground and contesting the shot." Buie then missed a 3 pointer, barely drawing iron, after Nicholson set a screen. Purdue missed a 3 pointer, but Nicholson had Edey tied up and Roper got the rebound. It was 20-15 Purdue.
And then Collins took Nicholson out, bringing back Beran. Bad move.
2:30 later Purdue was ahead 29-15.
Nicholson played the last 1:24 of the first half with Beran, Simmons, Greer and Buie. Beran and Simmons in the front court. Ugh..
Edey bulled Nicholson up the lane (away from the basket) to create space for a lob over Nicholson and a dunk. Beran missed a 3. Stefanovic made a 3. Buie made a 3. End of half.
Nicholson didnt play again until the game was out of hand - the last 84 seconds. He was out there with Barnhizer, Simmons, Elyjah Williams, Ty Berry and Buie. Nicholson got a pass from Barnhizer and dunked. Purdue made a 3 pointer. Barnhizer missed a shot. Purdue made a meaningless 3 pointer.
Nicholson looked pretty solid out there, made no real mistakes and his defense on Edey was clearly better than Nance's.
Nance was unable to defend Edey, as expected.
Despite all of this detail (god bless you to have/find the time), my point was clear that no one can handle those big guys. Give them all more opportunities and they will fail more than not. Cherry picking a play or two is not credible info. If you think Nance handles them so much worse than Young or Nicholson can, feel free to think so, but offense matters too - we ain’t winning that game any which way you coach it.
Nance did not miss a shot.
I am now off to doing my NU alumni interviews for the evening. Needless to say…
I wish I shared your optimism. Michigan seems to have righted the ship, and we don't have anyone to compete with Dickinson. Plus Eli Brooks has made 8-13 3's the last two seasons against us despite being a career 35% shooter, and the whole team has shot lights out the past two games. Thinking we lose this one by double digits as that familiar feeling settles in on the team...hoping I'm wrong.
Maybe we can miss our exit and keep heading up to East Lansing. We seem to have MSU's number.