My statistical analysis of Tre’s 3 point shooting..

[Buzzooka Joe]

I’m infatuated with odd statistics and numbers.. so here is something I’ve been tracking about Tre’s 3 point shooting..

There have been 9 games this year where Tre shot 3 or more three pointers.. In those games, we lose 33.3% of the time.. Tre has NEVER hit more than 1 three pointer in those games.. and he shoots 18.6% from three in those games..

In his other 21 games, where he shot 2 or less three pointers.. we win more than 90% of the time.. he has hit multiple threes on 2 occasions.. and he shoots 32.4% from three in those games..

Also, here are averages in games he shoots 3 or more threes compared to games he shoots 2 or less threes (the first stat in each line is the 3+ games, the second that is the 2- games):

8.9 Points | 8.9 Points
5.0 Assist | 5.8 Assist
1.6 Turnovers | 1.6 Turnovers
1.3 Steals | 2.4 Steals
2.2 Fouls | 1.2 Fouls

In the games he shoots 2 or less threes.. he scores the exact same PPG, despite shooting less threes.. he averages more assists and his AST/TO ratio is better.. he averages more than 1 more steal per game and commits 1 less foul per game..

BUT! If he shoots 1 or 0 threes.. his points & assists per game go down noticeably.. and we win only 85.7% of the time

So, the moral of the story is.. Tre needs to attempt 2 three pointers a game and then STOP!

 

[Mpm277]

Something something correlation and causation something something.

 

[PixelDevil]

Here’s my statistical analysis.

It’s not very good.

 

[denverexpat]

his name is Tre....he should rename himself if he cannot make more 3's....maybe to Duece
I think the more 3's we shoot the more they are like TO's because we shoot them poorly....drive and dish or pull up mid range should be his game

 

[Buzzooka Joe]

his name is Tre....he should rename himself if he cannot make more 3's....maybe to Duece
I think the more 3's we shoot the more they are like TO's because we shoot them poorly....drive and dish or pull up mid range should be his game

I agree with missed 3’s being a lot like turnovers.. I’d be interested in knowing stats on how often missed 3’s turn into rebounds for the defense compared to missed 2’s being defensive rebounds.. I feel like almost all of our missed 3’s go right to the defense.

 

[dukephysics]

I think you're generally in the right area, but it is more broad than just Tre.
We have shot over 30 3s, 5 times this year - Army, Stetson, vsSyracuse (20.9%), vsUNC (20.5%), and @UNC (25.0%). The fist two don't count, and the last 3 were all losses. It's no secret we shoot poorly from 3. If we shoot poorly from 3, which we will do most nights, (we've been over 36% from 3 only three times since conference play began), and we do it on volume, well we will get beaten by good teams. Our performance @UVA should be considered anomalous.
We need our starters to not just settle for 3s and we need some bench players (who are lesser defenders) to give us a little outside shooting. Fully healthy, I think the ONLY way we lose in the tournament is if we go something like 25% on 30 attempts from 3. We can go 25% on 12 attempts, because we are so efficient from 2 and good on defense.

 

[nets on nets on nets]

I think it's pretty easy. With Zion we don't need much scoring from Tre. We need him to handle the ball and apply ball pressure.

When we face a man-to-man defense, I really don't see another game where Tre will hoist more than 3 three's. Tre shot a lot last night because Syracuse was parking 5 guys in the paint.

 

[Showenuff]

correct. Tre needs penetration floaters, not 3 balls.

 

[Mpm277]

I think you're generally in the right area, but it is more broad than just Tre.
We have shot over 30 3s, 5 times this year - Army, Stetson, vsSyracuse (20.9%), vsUNC (20.5%), and @UNC (25.0%). The fist two don't count, and the last 3 were all losses. It's no secret we shoot poorly from 3. If we shoot poorly from 3, which we will do most nights, (we've been over 36% from 3 only three times since conference play began), and we do it on volume, well we will get beaten by good teams. Our performance @UVA should be considered anomalous.
We need our starters to not just settle for 3s and we need some bench players (who are lesser defenders) to give us a little outside shooting. Fully healthy, I think the ONLY way we lose in the tournament is if we go something like 25% on 30 attempts from 3. We can go 25% on 12 attempts, because we are so efficient from 2 and good on defense.

This. I'm afraid that our loss in the tournament (if it happens) will be because we fell absolutely in love with the 3 ball even though we've repeatedly watched it not go in. Gotta stop chasing after a girl we can't get.

 

[BeerPoisoning]

Tre shot 2 threes when we lost to Gonzaga. (That eliminates your overall point.) All of our other losses are while unhealthy, we are healthy now so that statistical breakdown tells me absolutely nothing. The good old fashioned eye test will tell you that we play better when Tre doesn’t jack up threes. It’s blatantly obvious by watching the games and everyone on this board watches the games, so the statistical breakdown merits nothing.

Not trying to sound like a jerk, but I think that breakdown was pointless lol

 

[LouisiAaron]

Tre’s three point shooting does not correlate to us losing games at all. We lost because of injuries in every game except Gonzaga. Tre and Cam didn’t play against Syracuse. Zion didn’t play the other 3 losses.

 

[dukephysics]

That eliminates your overall point...
so that statistical breakdown tells me absolutely nothing...
It’s blatantly obvious ...
so the statistical breakdown merits nothing....
but I think that breakdown was pointless lol

Not trying to sound like a jerk,

 

[Liftee]

Is there any issue Duke fans have discussed more than (1) Is Zion coming back and (2) are we shooting too many or the wrong kind of 3 pointers?

Now that Zion is back we can focus on 3 pointers. We have to take some. We can't let defenses collapse totally on Zion and RJ when he drives. The question is what is the right number and from whom and where.

By this time the coaches must know what spot on the court each of our mediocre shooters shoot the best. I am sure that spot is not 5 feet outside the 3 point line or with 5 seconds gone on the shot clock. Maximize the percentage by picking each shooter's best spot and shoot only after other options have failed would be the best suggestion I can come up with.

 

[dukephysics]

By this time the coaches must know what spot on the court each of our mediocre shooters shoot the best. I am sure that spot is not 5 feet outside the 3 point line or with 5 seconds gone on the shot clock. Maximize the percentage by picking each shooter's best spot and shoot only after other options have failed would be the best suggestion I can come up with.

I was really surprised last night at one point in the game that Jack White wasn't immediately pulled. Zion posted up and made a move in the lane. The defense collapsed and he kicked it out to Jack White for a wide open corner 3. Jack passed it up, took a few dribbles in, then passed. I was screaming. If Jack cannot take (and make) wide open corner 3s, we can't play him. That is part of what he has to provide.
I think you are right.

 

[DukeDenver]

Tre needs penetration floaters, not 3 balls.

I know I need penetration and don't need 3 balls.


Sorry, could not resist. Resume stats debate.

 

[dukebluesTX]

Certain statistics are fine I suppose. But ESPN for example, goes overboard to an annoying extent with some of their stats. So and So team is 10-3 when the weather is ______ and their ______ does______. For the most part, stats are nothing more than something people can obsess over to kill time.

 

[BeerPoisoning]

Actually didn’t even realize I was that repetitive about it lol... Stats are neat to look at it but the box score tells you nothing about situational circumstances which plays a large role in things. Therefore saying we are just better off when Tre chooses to shoot 2 threes, that’s dumb luck kinda stuff.

 

[Buzzooka Joe]

Tre shot 2 threes when we lost to Gonzaga. (That eliminates your overall point.) All of our other losses are while unhealthy, we are healthy now so that statistical breakdown tells me absolutely nothing. The good old fashioned eye test will tell you that we play better when Tre doesn’t jack up threes. It’s blatantly obvious by watching the games and everyone on this board watches the games, so the statistical breakdown merits nothing.

Not trying to sound like a jerk, but I think that breakdown was pointless lol

Would you rather Tre shoot 2 threes tonight.. or 3 threes tonight?

 

[RanDEVILman]

I get that Tre and RJ and to some extent Cam all shoot too many 3s. But imo you have to shoot when wide open and in rhthym. Last night vs Cuse Tre shot good shots. He only hit one or two but they were the right ones. We can’t jack em up, but if youre not a threat when open, you need to get off the floor.

 

[Buzzooka Joe]

I get that Tre and RJ and to some extent Cam all shoot too many 3s. But imo you have to shoot when wide open and in rhthym. Last night vs Cuse Tre shot good shots. He only hit one or two but they were the right ones. We can’t jack em up, but if youre not a threat when open, you need to get off the floor.

He hit 1 (out of 7).. I agree, you shoot if you are open and in rhythm - if you are a “decent” 3 point shooter.. I think most would agree 30% is probably around the cut off for an acceptable 3pt shooter.. RJ shoots 31%.. Tre shoots 24%..

24% 3pt shooters shouldn’t be shooting threes unless there is no one within 10 feet of them.. and even then, they shouldn’t be shooting more than a couple threes a game.. there is no scenario I can think of where it is in the team’s (or Tre’s) best interest to shoot more than 2 threes in one game..

I would love to see Tre come back next year and develop his three to where he is at least a decent college three point shooter.. I think if he can improve his three, he goes from being a late 1st round / early 2nd round pick, to being a potential lottery pick.. because his defense, offensive PG skills, and heart are all top notch.

 

[FearTheBeard_rivals208808]

Fallout is the only video game I’ve played recently. Love that game.

 

[FearTheBeard_rivals208808]

I know I need penetration and don't need 3 balls.


Sorry, could not resist. Resume stats debate.

I don’t know. Let’s see where this leads.

 

[RanDEVILman]

He hit 1 (out of 7).. I agree, you shoot if you are open and in rhythm - if you are a “decent” 3 point shooter.. I think most would agree 30% is probably around the cut off for an acceptable 3pt shooter.. RJ shoots 31%.. Tre shoots 24%..

24% 3pt shooters shouldn’t be shooting threes unless there is no one within 10 feet of them.. and even then, they shouldn’t be shooting more than a couple threes a game.. there is no scenario I can think of where it is in the team’s (or Tre’s) best interest to shoot more than 2 threes in one game..

I would love to see Tre come back next year and develop his three to where he is at least a decent college three point shooter.. I think if he can improve his three, he goes from being a late 1st round / early 2nd round pick, to being a potential lottery pick.. because his defense, offensive PG skills, and heart are all top notch.

I get it. He’s a bad shooter right now. And I agree most the time he should and does focus on other things. But in the Cuse game they played 2-3, obviously, and weren’t even guarding him. Hard to dribble penetrate the zone when the entire defense is 3feet or more off of you. So much so that it caused him to have some bad turnovers. I’d rather miss a three than turn it over. None of this is ideal. But I just feel like the threat has to be there and every shot has to be confident. You can’t count makes and misses while playing the game.