National Signing Day and Attrition

[orlandocatfan_rivals383321]

While we have to use some form of measurement during the recruiting process, all of that ends once the players sign on the dotted line each February. Some never make it for enrollment mainly because of academics. Others may not be allowed to enroll due to behavioral issues before enrollment while some may not show up to enroll for personal or family issues. Injuries over the summer can also cause a player not to enroll. Stuff happens. Kentucky has had its share of such instances.

That’s just one example of attrition. We can also be on the receiving end of attrition once the players arrive and enroll. Reasons can vary between dismissals for violating team rules, players leaving due to lack of playing time, leaving because they don’t buy in to coaching philosophies or a change in coaching staffs. They can also leave due to academics. As you well know, coaches are reluctant to disclose why players transfer out. Those who have been dismissed from the team are usually allowed to announce they are leaving the program on their own and we only hear about the dismissal through “insider” information. Rarely do we find out about a player transferring because he just can’t cut it in the classroom.

I decided to take a look at Kentucky’s losses of players through attrition beginning with the 2012 class through the 2016 class. Later in this, I will give you a comparison of defensive linemen for Kentucky and Alabama just to show that even the elite of the elite has the same problems.

The 2012 class:

According to Rivals, Kentucky’s scholarship class ranked 67th on NSD.

Players lost to attrition for whatever reason: Sterling Wright, Justin Taylor, Jalen Whitlow, Cody Quinn, A.J. Legree, Kory Brown, Dyshawn Mobley, Kadeem Thomas, Langston Newton, T.J. Jones, Patrick Grafree, Jonathon Reed, Shawn Blaylock, DeMarcus Sweat, Patrick Towles, Josh Harris. Thomas Chapman.

Players who graduated: Fred Tiller, Khalid Henderson, Jordan Swindel, twins Daron and Zach Blaylock, Landon Foster, Cody Quinn

Players still on the team after redshirting over their UK career: Jon Toth, Zach Myers

The 2013 Class:

According to Rivals, Kentucky’s scholarship class ranked 29th on NSD.

Players lost to attrition for whatever reason: Jason Hatcher, RegieMeant*, Jaleel Hytchye, Khalid Thomas, Justin Day, Reese Phillips. *(Meant could be reinstated or return next year – to be determined), Alvonte Bell

Players who graduated: (JUCO) Nate Willis, (JUCO) Javess Blue, (JUCO) Steven Borden, (JUCO) Za’Darius Smith

Players still on the team (some after redshirting over their UK career): Ryan Timmons, Nick Haynes, Jo Jo Kemp, Jeff Badet, Marcus McWilson, Alex Montgomery, Kyle Meadows, Austin MacGinniss, Ramsey Meyers, Jacob Hyde, Blake McClain

The 2014 Class:

According to Rivals, Kentucky’s scholarship class ranked 18th on NSD.

Players lost to attrition for whatever reason: Lloyd Tubman, Josh Krok, TV Williams, Jarrett LaRubbio, Darryl Long, Dorian Hendrix, Nick Richardson, Thaddeus Snodgrass

Players who graduated: (JUCO) A.J. Stamps, (JUCO) Cory Johnson, (JUCO) Ryan Flannigan,

Players still on the team (some after redshirting over their UK career): Matt Elam, Jervontius Stallings, Kendall Randolph, Blake Bone, Garrett Johnson, Adrian Middleton, Stanley Williams, Nico Firios, Darius West, Mike Edwards, Denzil Ware, Jared Tucker, Kobie Walker, Drew Barker, Tymere Dubose, Mikel Horton, Dorian Baker

The 2015 Class:

According to Rivals, Kentucky’s scholarship class ranked 34th on NSD.

Players lost to attrition for whatever reason: Therrell Gosier, Javon Profitt, Will Jackson, Levon Livingston

Players who graduated: (JUCO) A.J. Stamps, (JUCO) Cory Johnson, (JUCO) Ryan Flannigan

Players still on the team (some after redshirting over their UK career): Alvonte Bell, Courtney Miggins, Sihiem King, Tavin Richardson, Chris Westry, Kengera Daniel, Kei Beckham, Marcus Walker, Jabari Greenwood, George Asafo-Adjei, C.J. Conrad, Jordan Jones, Eli Brown, Mason Wolfe, Derrick Baity, Josh Allen, Calvin Taylor, Logan Stenberg

The 2016 Class:

According to Rivals, Kentucky’s scholarship class ranked 29th on NSD

Players lost to attrition for whatever reason: None so far

Players who graduated: None

Players still on the team (some after redshirting over their UK career): T.J. Carter, (JUCO) Stephen Johnson, (JUCO) Naquez Pringle, Jamar Watson, (JUCO) Tate Leavitt, Kash Daniel, Ja’Quize Cross, Gunnar Hoak, Kordell Looney, Dakota Holtzclaw, JaylinBannerman, Justin Rigg, Benny Snell, Asim Rose, (JUCO) Kayaune Ross, Roland Walder, Davonte Robinson, Jordan Griffin, Landon Young, Drake Jackson, Zy’Aire Hughes, Luke Fortner

The players listed above in italics were either Defensive Tackles or Defensive Ends. Several of those who graduated were defensive linemen who came into the fold as JUCOs. The attritions and graduations have had a huge impact on Kentucky’s defense.

Alabama hasn’t escaped the attrition either. In 2012, Alabama signed three linemen and all are no longer on the roster. In 2013, Alabama signed four DLs and all are no longer on the team. In 2014, Alabama signed six and four remain on the team. In 2015, Alabama signed five and all five are still on the team. In 2016, Alabama signed five and three are still on the team. I didn’t break down whether they played offense or defense. I just wanted to show that no team is immune to attrition.

Linemen, especially on the defense, are in great demand. They are premium recruits. Losing any to attrition hurts a program. Attrition hurts schools like Kentucky more than elite schools like Alabama because it is far easier for the Alabamas of the world when it comes to recruiting. For Kentucky, patience is required.

 

[JC CATS]

Interesting. Thanks for the work you put in researching

 

[bthaunert]

The idea that Alabama has the same kind of attrition as us it way off base. You mentioned their 2013 class, and none of the four DL's still on the team (I looked and they signed 5 DL). Here are the five they signed:

A'Shawn Robinson - skipped his senior year to go to the Draft (2nd round pick)
Tim Williams - returning for his senior year, coming off a 10.5 sack season
Jonathan Allen - returning for this upcoming year. First team All SEC last year.
Darius Paige - medically disqualified before he played a down
Dee Liner - transferred to Arkansas State

So, not sure where you got your info, but it looked like 2 are still on the team, and will be drafted next year most likely, one is in the NFL and 2 left for other reasons.

If you look at the 2012 class, they signed 5 DL (not sure where you got 3). Here is where they are now:

Dalvin Thomlinson - will be a senior this year. A regular player on the DL.
Korren Kirvin - switch to OL. Will be a senior this year.
Daren Lake - playing on 49ers roster as undrafted FA
Alphonse Taylor - switched to OL. Pre-season 2nd team All SEC. Indefinitely suspended right now for DUI. Something tells me he will be playing this year.
Dakota Ball - switched to TE. Started a few games last year and will be a senior this year.

So, out of the 2012-13 classes, 2 are in the NFL, 6 are returning for their senior year, a couple of them with NFL potential and 2 left the program for other reasons. Maybe I am getitng wrong information, but what you say and I what I saw is completely different. You said they signed 7 DL and none of them are on the team. It looks to me like they signed 10 guys and 6 are still on the team.

If I am mistaken in my research, let me know.

 

[ukalum1988]

I thought Cody Quinn was a graduating senior last year ?? Edit: you have him listed in both groups.

The 2012 class actually looked to be pretty solid on NSD but unfortunately was pretty much a dud overall.

Overall, I appreciate the effort the OP in his analysis.

 

[Deeeefense]

Good article but it should be pointed out that not all attrition is unwanted attrition. While a lot attrition is player oriented, some of it is staff oriented especially at a place like Bama. They over recruit certain positions like Dline and QB knowing ahead of time that they will eventually move many of them off the team unless they fully meet or exceed expectations.

The thing that stands out about the Stoops era compared to past staffs is a lot, if not most of the attrition is staff based, not player based. That's a huge improvement and will eventually start paying off with a much stronger roster.

 

[jauk11]

The thing that jumped out to me about the OP is the tremendous amount of talent still available from the 14 class-----that will be RS sophs and juniors this year------ALL of whom have played significant snaps. Some really elite talent for UK, they will play very important roles in our success this year and even bigger roles in our even bigger success in 17, with a lot better talent that has come in to help them.

 

[orlandocatfan_rivals383321]

Re: Alabama

I used the Rivals rankings and clicked on Alabama for each year and then went to their media guide to verify. Some players may have changed positions over time. I am positive any Alabama fan knows far more about Alabama football than I do. So, please excuse the error(s).

As for Cody Quinn, I simply forgot to delete his name for the previous year.

 

[RammerJammer91_rivals23256]

The idea that Alabama has the same kind of attrition as us it way off base. You mentioned their 2013 class, and none of the four DL's still on the team (I looked and they signed 5 DL). Here are the five they signed:

A'Shawn Robinson - skipped his senior year to go to the Draft (2nd round pick)
Tim Williams - returning for his senior year, coming off a 10.5 sack season
Jonathan Allen - returning for this upcoming year. First team All SEC last year.
Darius Paige - medically disqualified before he played a down
Dee Liner - transferred to Arkansas State

So, not sure where you got your info, but it looked like 2 are still on the team, and will be drafted next year most likely, one is in the NFL and 2 left for other reasons.

If you look at the 2012 class, they signed 5 DL (not sure where you got 3). Here is where they are now:

Dalvin Thomlinson - will be a senior this year. A regular player on the DL.
Korren Kirvin - switch to OL. Will be a senior this year.
Daren Lake - playing on 49ers roster as undrafted FA
Alphonse Taylor - switched to OL. Pre-season 2nd team All SEC. Indefinitely suspended right now for DUI. Something tells me he will be playing this year.
Dakota Ball - switched to TE. Started a few games last year and will be a senior this year.

So, out of the 2012-13 classes, 2 are in the NFL, 6 are returning for their senior year, a couple of them with NFL potential and 2 left the program for other reasons. Maybe I am getitng wrong information, but what you say and I what I saw is completely different. You said they signed 7 DL and none of them are on the team. It looks to me like they signed 10 guys and 6 are still on the team.

If I am mistaken in my research, let me know.

Yeah, Dakota Ball has been all over the place. He was recruited as a DT, but was moved to TE because of our lack of depth (specifically with blocking TE's), and right now he's getting a look at DE. Johnny Dwight, a member of our 2014 class, came in as a DT and was also moved to TE last year but is now in line to potentially be a 2nd string DE. 2012 was a big year for us in recruiting DT's since we lost 2 from the 2011 team, had 2 more that only had a year of eligibility left, and had a DE with only a year left that could slide in at DT in certain situations.

We're pretty thin at DT this year compared to most years, and a lot of that has to do with some unfortunate circumstances. As you noted, Darius Paige had a heart condition that forced him to not suit up. He had the potential to be a real player. Elisha Shaw, a DT from GA in the '14 class had a serious neck injury that prevented him from even playing college ball. We had a kid in '15 who looked to be on track to qualify until things took a turn, and he ended up de-committing and signing with A&M, although they found out the hard way when he didn't qualify for the '15 season. And then this year, seemingly out of nowhere, one of the top DT's in the country who was 350+ failed to qualify, and thankfully, the DT we signed from MS was able to qualify which surprised many, myself included.

It'll be interesting to see how we hold up against physical teams like Arkansas and LSU since we won't be rotating in anywhere near the number of guys on our defensive front that we did last year. LSU, for example, will have the ability to rotate in 6 guys at DT alone, despite their returning starter that recently suffered an injury. They signed 3 guys in '16 that were rated either as a 5-star or slightly below 5-star, and they have the #2 DT in '17 locked up and they're the favorite to sign the #1 DT, Marvin Wilson. Orgeron is killing it in Baton Rouge.