New KenPom time
- Thread starter ctt8410
- Start date
I think alot of that is based on last year. Teams that replace the entire roster are impossible to predict
11 is better than 5. That is a step in the right direction. We are doing thangs baby!
Final Four team with everyone back at (37)? I've seen teams regress, but maybe not this much.
I wonder if what the equivalent predictions for Tulsa in 1980-1981 season must have been? Nolan brought in 9 new scholarship players that year, and only one player returning, Bob Stevenson, was any good.
No, not predicting 26-7 and NIT Championship, but it's just one of countless examples of how preseason predictions are worthless. Just something to talk about.
You have to love that year's out of conference schedule. No out of state games, two home games against final 4 teams, including the national champions, from the previous year. And playing Dominique Wilkins' Georgia team at ORU. That was the only non-conference loss, a two-pointer.
No, not predicting 26-7 and NIT Championship, but it's just one of countless examples of how preseason predictions are worthless. Just something to talk about.
You have to love that year's out of conference schedule. No out of state games, two home games against final 4 teams, including the national champions, from the previous year. And playing Dominique Wilkins' Georgia team at ORU. That was the only non-conference loss, a two-pointer.
Wonder who got Louisville and Purdue to play at Tulsa ? Doubt Stoglin got that done. Maybe Turner, the AD? Now they won’t return our calls.
I'll bet Jim King got the games scheduled. Just a guess. Louisville was a not too far removed from being an MVC opponent. I figure both teams scheduled the game because they aren't that far away from Tulsa, comparatively speaking, as some non-conference opponents would be. That combined with thinking winning at Tulsa would be an easy road win, are reasons for them scheduling home and home games. Tulsa had 5 consecutive losing season before Nolan, with 4 of of those being single digit win years. Purdue and Louisville beat TU by 34 and 20 points, respectively, in 1980.
No way they saw Tulsa's Nolan instant turnaround coming. The impact of that Louisville win can't be overestimated. Tulsa went form complete apathy to hysteria in an instant. The atmosphere for that Louisville game was wild.
No way they saw Tulsa's Nolan instant turnaround coming. The impact of that Louisville win can't be overestimated. Tulsa went form complete apathy to hysteria in an instant. The atmosphere for that Louisville game was wild.
I’m not a gambler, but if I could actually find anyone willing to put up $ on that prediction, I’d take the over.
The TU - Louisville game of 1980 started an era of unprecedented excitement with TU basketball which maybe only the Elite Eight team of 2000 might have matched.
Yea, 11-19? Come on.
I've got us in the high teens this year, at a minimum. I think we are really going to surprise.
I want to be wrong. I’m just going into the season with really low expectations after last season. I know it’s an entirely different team and I won’t be a negative Nancy during the season like some on here but leading up I am until I see otherwise.
I have high hopes last year was an aberration
Hey buddy! There’s only room enough for one Negative Nancy on this forum!
As the kids these days say…. “You’re not him”
Coach Wilson first year predictions
Nobody has a solid clue, with 11 new players that have very little solid playing time at their former abodes. His prediction has just as much merit as many other predictions. I think we'll win at a minimum 12-14 game becuz we have a solid experienced PG and play an easier schedule. But I don't know that for sure. We could finish with 8 wins or 20+.
Most unsure in my 43 year history of TU basketball. Anywhere on the spectrum……..
Look I think the 11-19 is a decent prediction before the season starts without knowing what the team can do and if they can gel. Obviously if they are playing above par then the numbers can change one way or the other. We have a soft (on paper) OOC schedule. The American is not a pushover conference even the additions, most are not pushovers. We will see.
This prediction is basically based 100% off last year. It truly makes no sense and if end up 11-19 then we should ALL be very upset.
Realistic. We realistically were 5-25 last year. If we are 11-19 this year it’s better than what we were. Didn’t say you didn’t have to like it but the reality is it’s better than what it was.
I just hope we get better and gel this year.
We distressed significantly from our first games to mid season then more as the season went along.
If we go that and get 15 wins, I’ll be very happy. If we end up playing for a possible NIT bid, I’ll be thrilled!
We distressed significantly from our first games to mid season then more as the season went along.
If we go that and get 15 wins, I’ll be very happy. If we end up playing for a possible NIT bid, I’ll be thrilled!
By my cursory glance, we have 12 OOC games. By all rights we should win 7 or 8 of these. 11-19 would mean we would only win 3 or 4 conference games. Feels low.
With the roster turnover of this team, making a prediction is like predicting how the Phoenix Suns are going to do this season, by basing it on the play of the Detroit Pistons last season, since Monty Williams was the coach at both.
Does that make sense?
Does that make sense?
11 wins is basically just regression to the mean. Very bad AAC teams usually win 10 - 12 games. Only colossally bad AAC teams win fewer than 10, usually one AAC team per year comes in under 10. So this is saying we probably won't be colossally, historically, bad again. I'd like to think we can hit a little higher than that but who knows.
There's the old statistician coming out!
Don't go there yet. We don't want to see your utter & abject disappointment when we go 13-17.
TU basketball unfortunately is back to pre-Nolan days!!!!
We are just another mediocre basketball program!!!
We have all hated to see the digression but it has happened.
With that said I hope we have a great year!!!!
Let's beat Ken Pom's prediction of 11 wins!!!!
GO TU!!!!
We are just another mediocre basketball program!!!
We have all hated to see the digression but it has happened.
With that said I hope we have a great year!!!!
Let's beat Ken Pom's prediction of 11 wins!!!!
GO TU!!!!
Biggest risers from preseason KenPom last 5 years. Tulsa starts the season at 272.
| Year | Team | Preseason Rank | Postseason Rank | Change |
| 2022-2023 | Southern Miss | 324 | 99 | 225 |
| 2021-2022 | Middle Tennessee | 285 | 92 | 193 |
| 2020-2021 | Morehead State | 318 | 134 | 184 |
| 2019-2020 | Stephen F. Austin | 299 | 100 | 199 |
| 2018-2019 | South Florida | 287 | 99 | 18 |
Yes. BUT we're up 19 spots after last night's win and I've got a feeling we won't stop there.
Man, I was looking at upcoming opponents and Jackson St's schedule sounds like a nightmare with tight turn arounds and the travel they are doing in the first 10 days of the season:
11/6 - at Memphis (94-77 loss)
11/8 - at San Diego
11/10 - at California Baptist
11/14 - at Loyola Marymount
11/16 - at Tulsa
11/6 - at Memphis (94-77 loss)
11/8 - at San Diego
11/10 - at California Baptist
11/14 - at Loyola Marymount
11/16 - at Tulsa
I don't even want to put a limit on it...I just know it'll go up fast. I'm excited to have our full deck with everyone back from injury.