I was looking at one yesterday it didn't have bolden, Luke, or Grayson in the first round.. Tatum was at 5 and Giles at 18
New mock draft..
- Thread starter pisgah101
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That would be closer to how I'd draft, if I was a GM/owner and had to draft right now. It will shift as guys improve.
Not me. You win in the NBA with superstars. You can take a guy at 7,8,9...who is for sure going to be a solid role player for a long time. If Giles is there, sure it's risky, but you go for it. The upside is high and you only win in the NBA with high upside guys. And with the current "super team" atmosphere in the NBA, it's probably more true than ever. If I'm an NBA GM and my team is moderate to poor - there are very few guys I'd draft over Giles. You have to gamble.
I'd argue there are at least 10-12 other better bets as "superstars" right now. Giles hasn't looked like a top guy since 2015. There's no reason to assume his physical gifts will return. He hasn't shown any special intangibles so far this season either. High school highlights make him a sure top 20 guy, nothing more yet. If he shows some post scoring/passing and his running and jumping numbers look good at the combine, he's a top 5 for sure.
I'd argue you're being very unfair judging a guy who's played 6 games after being out 15months and saying this is what you're getting.
I really hope it doesn't end up hurting Grayson by him returning to Duke this year. I at least want him to go as high as he would have if he had left last year.
I think its already hurt his draft value. Who ever drafts him will become my favorite team in the NBA.
I'm being asked to judge him. That's what a mock draft is. I'm just being objective based on what I've seen. I do believe Giles will probably be a superstar within 5 years, but there's also a chance he's never the same. His personality and drive have convinced me it will be the former. Dennis Smith recovered from his knee perfectly and his game is more than just athleticism. Seventh Woods? Not the same outcome despite being neck and neck when they were 15-16 years old.
No way there are 10-12 with his potential, or better, to be a "superstar". Maybe 5. Not 10.
I'm not sure if you've noticed, but he brings a bunch of energy when he is in the court. Even at whatever % he is at, which is not 100%. That's an intangible, and one you can't teach (See Marques Bolden). I've seen no reason to believe that once healthy, and he will be eventually, that he can't be the same player again. He looks decently explosive now (caught a alley oop and had a few nice dunks) but he is just a couple ticks slow when he changes pace because he just isn't there YET.
Hard to believe Luke isn't the first round of every mock draft. The NBA can't get enough shooters, and he does it very well. Grayson too for that matter, especially considering his athleticism.
I didn't see the same one, but I saw BleacherReport's and they had Tatum at seven or eight and Giles at 13. But like the one you saw, this mock draft also didn't have any of those other three in the first round.
For Duke, I obviously hope that changes. Because if Grayson and Luke move into the first round it will likely mean we got better and something somewhat good happened.
Bolden has just been a complete mystery. He really has all of the intangibles and from all reports he had a great pro day back in October, but his play hasn't transitioned to college. He had executives salivating at that 6'10" frame and 7'4" wingspan (I imagine they still do, but his lack of inspired play has to have turned them off). I'd still be surprised if he's back at Duke next season, but you never know. I don't feel he transfers simply because I can't see him sitting out next season at another school. At the same time, unless the injury earlier in the season is still impacting his play, or lack thereof, I just can't see a scenario where he's on an NBA roster next season.
I'm pretty sure Denver was playing devil's advocate in this situation. I don't think he's deliberately attempting to be hard on the kid, just pointing out what draft analysis might show.
Sign me up for the scenario where we win a national championship and everyone goes in the first round. Jayson, Harry, Marques, Luke, Grayson, and Frank.
I think DukeDenver is right. I did a run down on Duke players a few days ago in a different thread.
As much as people want to prop up Giles because he's a Duke player (lay aside the fact that given past history, if he were on UNC this year and the same thing were happening, it would be a different tune from fans), he has to prove he can play at an NBA level.
He's got two strikes against him on that count, regardless of how highly regarded he was his Jr. year in high school: 1) He has not performed like lottery-pick type player on the court in college (regardless of the legitimate reasons for that, that's a fact); and 2) his injury history puts him at high risk.
Those two factors are intertwined in large degree. But, those are factors. GMs at the top of the draft class cannot risk injured players - especially with knee issues (Just as Portland). However, a team with some depth, with a solid lineup already, can take a flyer - which really puts Giles more in the 20-30 range, of playoff teams that don't need a starter and can afford the risk.
Depending on the talent on the team, if I'm a GM I'm not drafting him near the top 10-15. If I'm drafting in the 15-20 range it all depends on needs, who's available, and if I feel confident our team has talent if Giles doesn't develop or is injured again, then I might take the risk.
There have been a ton of top picks who don't pan out. It's an art, not a science. And, being the top player in high school (or a top 5 player) is no guarantee of NBA success.
I think those rankings above in the OP are just about right, at this juncture in the season.
As much as people want to prop up Giles because he's a Duke player (lay aside the fact that given past history, if he were on UNC this year and the same thing were happening, it would be a different tune from fans), he has to prove he can play at an NBA level.
He's got two strikes against him on that count, regardless of how highly regarded he was his Jr. year in high school: 1) He has not performed like lottery-pick type player on the court in college (regardless of the legitimate reasons for that, that's a fact); and 2) his injury history puts him at high risk.
Those two factors are intertwined in large degree. But, those are factors. GMs at the top of the draft class cannot risk injured players - especially with knee issues (Just as Portland). However, a team with some depth, with a solid lineup already, can take a flyer - which really puts Giles more in the 20-30 range, of playoff teams that don't need a starter and can afford the risk.
Depending on the talent on the team, if I'm a GM I'm not drafting him near the top 10-15. If I'm drafting in the 15-20 range it all depends on needs, who's available, and if I feel confident our team has talent if Giles doesn't develop or is injured again, then I might take the risk.
There have been a ton of top picks who don't pan out. It's an art, not a science. And, being the top player in high school (or a top 5 player) is no guarantee of NBA success.
I think those rankings above in the OP are just about right, at this juncture in the season.
Well said Youngman. From what I have seen up to this point, I would not feel comfortable drafting Harry with a top 15 pick. Not bashing the young man, just need to see more. This day in age, the guy that plays the 4-5 in the NBA is stretching the floor with the 3 ball, has a good handle... at times running point, and defending the pick and role at a decent level. Haven't seen any of those intangibles from Harry yet. I have no clue what his range is, have no clue if he can create a little off the dribble, and I haven't seen much defending the high ball screen. With it being mid January, I hope to see those intangibles in the next eight weeks. If so, will probably mean a good tournament run. If not, his draft spot could slip into the twenties.
Absolutely, dbav, he's my number one pick if I ACTUALLY own a team, you know, because I want a winning culture like the Spurs have. Harry is perfect for building a team around. If I'm talking emotionless decision, I'd first take UK's guards (but not Bam, who is overrated), Tatum, Josh Jackson, FSU's Issac, Fultz, Ball and maybe Leaf.