This is it. The moment we've all been waiting for. Northwestern has finally made the NCAA tournament and pulled the proverbial monkey off of the program's back. I didn't quite expect this moment to coincide with a first round match up against my alma mater, but hey I'll take it. I'm sure you all will read plenty of previews between now and Thursday, however I think I might be able to provide a little bit different insight as a fan who has watched both teams all season.
To start off, I think this will be a close game; both teams are pretty close in skill level and the advanced statistics back it up (Northwestern 39th KenPom, Vanderbilt 34th). This game will feature a hot Vanderbilt team that has found itself late in the season after a dismal start low lighted by a 71-48 loss to Middle Tennessee State against a recovering Northwestern team that seems to have regained its mid season form that featured a 6 game winning streak in the big ten. Neither team relies too heavily on one or two players, however both will likely require a good day from their team leaders to win the game.
Vanderbilt is a team that likes to shoot the 3 to the tune of 26.3 a game, good for 9th in the country. Eight of the nine players in Vanderbilt's rotation can and will shoot the 3 ball. Coach Bryce Drew is not shy about encouraging his players to pull the trigger, so expect to see a good number of 3 balls flying from the 3 point line and beyond.
Vanderbilt is led by senior Luke Kornet as well as juniors Riley LaChance, Jeff Roberson and Matthew Fisher-Davis. All 4 players have averaged double digits over the course of the season and are capable 3 point shooters: Luke Kornet has set an all time NCAA record for 3 pointers made by a 7 foot or taller player, Riley Lachance leads the team with a gaudy 49.8% 3pt percentage and Matthew Fisher-Davis possesses one of the purest 3 point strokes in the country that has put him on the map as a fringe NBA prospect (although his defense is questionable at best).
I expect Northwestern's defense to frustrate Vandy. Most of Vanderbilt's offensive sets are predicated on running a weave action on the top of the key to force defensive switches in order to create better match ups. Because Chris Collins encourages a switching defense that takes advantage of the versatility of Northwestern's wings (Lumpkin, Law and Lindsey), I think Vanderbilt will struggle to initiate its offense effectively while the NU starting lineup is in place. Players like Gavin Skelly, Isiah Brown and Barret Benson will almost assuredly become liabilities on defense for Northwestern as Vanderbilt thrives when it can force switches from bigs on to its guards and smaller players on to Luke Kornet. While Luke Kornet is not a very good post threat, he possesses enough skill to exploit smaller/weak players and has the passing skills to find open shooters out of double teams. It will be very important for Northwestern wings and especially Lumpkin to stay out of foul trouble as they will be key to Northwestern's ability to contain Vanderbilt.
The difference between Vanderbilt at the middle of the season and now is actually quite astounding. I had zero expectation or belief that they would make the tournament through most of the season. A late season turn around featuring wins over Iowa State, Arkansas, South Carolina and Florida (3 times!) ended up being enough to hoist the team into the field. The turn around can primarily be attributed to a new found commitment to the defensive end of the floor. For most of the season, Vanderbilt ranked somewhere around 120 in adjusted defensive efficiency by KenPom, but brought that up to 41st in the country by the end of the regular season. Vanderbilt is primarily a man team that will very occasionally run a matchup 2-3 zone (however it is pretty ineffective in my mind). Only a couple Vanderbilt players are decent 1 on 1 defenders, namely Jeff Roberson and Joe Toye who will likely guard Law and Lindsey respectively. The rest of the team focuses on playing tough positional defense and forcing players to drive into 7 footer Luke Kornet. Luke is extremely good at walling up and not fouling, he doesn't get a ton of blocks (2 per game) but he is able to force a ton of shot changes around the rim by virtue of being tall. I look for BMac to try and exploit Vandy's Riley Lachance as he is a fairly weak defender. I have no doubt that he will be able to get in the lane against Riley and his floater will certainly help in scoring over Luke. If Northwestern is to be successful offensively, BMac is going to need to shoot it well as the guards are definitely the weak point in Vanderbilt's defense.
Overall, I think Northwestern will struggle on offense if BMac is off. Vanderbilt has pretty strong wing and interior defense, so BMac is going to have to be successful in the 2 man game and break down the defense by getting in the lane and hitting the floater to force the defense to collapse. I don't think Dererk is going to be able to successfully post up Kornet and Law is going to be hounded all night. Pardon's biggest impact will likely be on the offensive glass and Vanderbilt is a weak defensive rebounding team and Luke has struggled to box out more active centers this season. Vanderbilt also takes care of the ball fairly well, only committing 12 turnovers a game. While both teams are great at scoring in transition, neither turns the ball over very much. For this reason, I think the key to the game will be the turnover margin, both teams will struggle to score in the half court and so easy offense will be very important to both teams. I expect the game to be pretty low scoring, both teams milk the shot clock and can struggle to get good looks in the half court (Vanderbilt is 284th in Adjusted Tempo and NU is 300th).
Match ups to watch (A lot of these were mentioned earlier but just to recap)
Riley LaChance vs. Bryant McIntosh
This is the key match up of the game. Both players are integral to the teams success on the offensive end of the floor. BMac will need to get in the lane to break down the Vanderbilt defense and Riley will need to continue his efficiency from beyond the arc.
Vic Law vs Matthew Fisher-Davis
Vic will spend a good chunk of the night chasing Matthew Fisher-Davis around the floor and denying him the catch. Even a sliver of space is enough for Fisher-Davis to get a good shot so Vic will need to play him tight. Fisher-Davis also comes off of the bench now as a result of a mid season change which may prove interesting in how Collins adjusts his rotations to compensate.
Luke Kornet vs. Dererk Pardon
Pardon is going to need to get comfortable guarding out the the 3 point line and fast. Luke is a very capable shooter and plays with a high IQ. Pardon will look to have a big night on the offensive glass, taking advantage of Luke's weak box outs.
Of all the teams NU has played this year, I would say Vandy most closely resembles Michigan. Vanderbilt isn't quite as potent offensively but has a stronger interior defense, both teams often run 5 shooters on the floor.
TL;DR
Vanderbilt will shoot a lot of 3s and play tough defense. Expect a low scoring game. BMac will have a lot of opportunities to take over.
I'm looking forward to the game and will be in attendance. This was a great season to be a fan of NU (and Vandy), I'm hoping for continued success for both programs and their young coaches.
To start off, I think this will be a close game; both teams are pretty close in skill level and the advanced statistics back it up (Northwestern 39th KenPom, Vanderbilt 34th). This game will feature a hot Vanderbilt team that has found itself late in the season after a dismal start low lighted by a 71-48 loss to Middle Tennessee State against a recovering Northwestern team that seems to have regained its mid season form that featured a 6 game winning streak in the big ten. Neither team relies too heavily on one or two players, however both will likely require a good day from their team leaders to win the game.
Vanderbilt is a team that likes to shoot the 3 to the tune of 26.3 a game, good for 9th in the country. Eight of the nine players in Vanderbilt's rotation can and will shoot the 3 ball. Coach Bryce Drew is not shy about encouraging his players to pull the trigger, so expect to see a good number of 3 balls flying from the 3 point line and beyond.
Vanderbilt is led by senior Luke Kornet as well as juniors Riley LaChance, Jeff Roberson and Matthew Fisher-Davis. All 4 players have averaged double digits over the course of the season and are capable 3 point shooters: Luke Kornet has set an all time NCAA record for 3 pointers made by a 7 foot or taller player, Riley Lachance leads the team with a gaudy 49.8% 3pt percentage and Matthew Fisher-Davis possesses one of the purest 3 point strokes in the country that has put him on the map as a fringe NBA prospect (although his defense is questionable at best).
I expect Northwestern's defense to frustrate Vandy. Most of Vanderbilt's offensive sets are predicated on running a weave action on the top of the key to force defensive switches in order to create better match ups. Because Chris Collins encourages a switching defense that takes advantage of the versatility of Northwestern's wings (Lumpkin, Law and Lindsey), I think Vanderbilt will struggle to initiate its offense effectively while the NU starting lineup is in place. Players like Gavin Skelly, Isiah Brown and Barret Benson will almost assuredly become liabilities on defense for Northwestern as Vanderbilt thrives when it can force switches from bigs on to its guards and smaller players on to Luke Kornet. While Luke Kornet is not a very good post threat, he possesses enough skill to exploit smaller/weak players and has the passing skills to find open shooters out of double teams. It will be very important for Northwestern wings and especially Lumpkin to stay out of foul trouble as they will be key to Northwestern's ability to contain Vanderbilt.
The difference between Vanderbilt at the middle of the season and now is actually quite astounding. I had zero expectation or belief that they would make the tournament through most of the season. A late season turn around featuring wins over Iowa State, Arkansas, South Carolina and Florida (3 times!) ended up being enough to hoist the team into the field. The turn around can primarily be attributed to a new found commitment to the defensive end of the floor. For most of the season, Vanderbilt ranked somewhere around 120 in adjusted defensive efficiency by KenPom, but brought that up to 41st in the country by the end of the regular season. Vanderbilt is primarily a man team that will very occasionally run a matchup 2-3 zone (however it is pretty ineffective in my mind). Only a couple Vanderbilt players are decent 1 on 1 defenders, namely Jeff Roberson and Joe Toye who will likely guard Law and Lindsey respectively. The rest of the team focuses on playing tough positional defense and forcing players to drive into 7 footer Luke Kornet. Luke is extremely good at walling up and not fouling, he doesn't get a ton of blocks (2 per game) but he is able to force a ton of shot changes around the rim by virtue of being tall. I look for BMac to try and exploit Vandy's Riley Lachance as he is a fairly weak defender. I have no doubt that he will be able to get in the lane against Riley and his floater will certainly help in scoring over Luke. If Northwestern is to be successful offensively, BMac is going to need to shoot it well as the guards are definitely the weak point in Vanderbilt's defense.
Overall, I think Northwestern will struggle on offense if BMac is off. Vanderbilt has pretty strong wing and interior defense, so BMac is going to have to be successful in the 2 man game and break down the defense by getting in the lane and hitting the floater to force the defense to collapse. I don't think Dererk is going to be able to successfully post up Kornet and Law is going to be hounded all night. Pardon's biggest impact will likely be on the offensive glass and Vanderbilt is a weak defensive rebounding team and Luke has struggled to box out more active centers this season. Vanderbilt also takes care of the ball fairly well, only committing 12 turnovers a game. While both teams are great at scoring in transition, neither turns the ball over very much. For this reason, I think the key to the game will be the turnover margin, both teams will struggle to score in the half court and so easy offense will be very important to both teams. I expect the game to be pretty low scoring, both teams milk the shot clock and can struggle to get good looks in the half court (Vanderbilt is 284th in Adjusted Tempo and NU is 300th).
Match ups to watch (A lot of these were mentioned earlier but just to recap)
Riley LaChance vs. Bryant McIntosh
This is the key match up of the game. Both players are integral to the teams success on the offensive end of the floor. BMac will need to get in the lane to break down the Vanderbilt defense and Riley will need to continue his efficiency from beyond the arc.
Vic Law vs Matthew Fisher-Davis
Vic will spend a good chunk of the night chasing Matthew Fisher-Davis around the floor and denying him the catch. Even a sliver of space is enough for Fisher-Davis to get a good shot so Vic will need to play him tight. Fisher-Davis also comes off of the bench now as a result of a mid season change which may prove interesting in how Collins adjusts his rotations to compensate.
Luke Kornet vs. Dererk Pardon
Pardon is going to need to get comfortable guarding out the the 3 point line and fast. Luke is a very capable shooter and plays with a high IQ. Pardon will look to have a big night on the offensive glass, taking advantage of Luke's weak box outs.
Of all the teams NU has played this year, I would say Vandy most closely resembles Michigan. Vanderbilt isn't quite as potent offensively but has a stronger interior defense, both teams often run 5 shooters on the floor.
TL;DR
Vanderbilt will shoot a lot of 3s and play tough defense. Expect a low scoring game. BMac will have a lot of opportunities to take over.
I'm looking forward to the game and will be in attendance. This was a great season to be a fan of NU (and Vandy), I'm hoping for continued success for both programs and their young coaches.
