NU, the B10 and NIT Bubble History

[Sec_112]

There's a few ridiculous opinions floating around that NU has no chance at the NIT and is nowhere near the bubble. Can we look at one simple fact about the B10 and NIT invitations?

Since 2000, no eligible B10 team with 19+ wins and a league record no worse than 2 two games below .500 has been left out of the NIT (or the NCAA tourney).

As I've said before, much of the B10 is fattening up on the league cupcakes. That portion of NU's schedule is upon us. Is it a reasonable expectation that NU has a good chance to beat Illinois, Rutgers and Nebraska? There's 19 wins, but only 7 conference wins. Beat Penn State and they get 20 and 8.

Yes, it may come down to Penn State ... again.

And if you lose to PSU twice in a season, you don't deserve a post season anyhow.

 

[Sec_112]

OK, so that view is a little simplistic (especially for you, Dugan. Yes, here's a little something for the numbers geeks.)

It's a fair argument to say the Cats' schedule is crap and you think that will play into an NIT invitation. However, an NIT invite to a team with a schedule this bad in an incredibly mediocre B10 is not unprecedented. Take a look at the 2010 NU NIT resume.

Here's every B10 NIT team since 2000 with a less than 19 wins OR a league record worse than two games below .500. For the teams since 2006 (when the NCAA took over the NIT), I've included RPI and KenPom stats.

The Cats have some work to do. And is it too much to ask for a reasonable win against Purdue, OSU or Michigan?

But the idea that NU is nowhere near the NIT invite list is just idiotic. Enjoy the comparison.

Year Team - Total wins/B10 wins (RPI rank/RPI SOS rank ... KenPom rank / KP SOS rank ... RPI league rank)

2016 NU - TBD/TBD (104/151 ... 88/138 ... 6)

2014 Illinois - 20/7 (67/37 ... 49/16 ... 2)
2012 Minn - 23/6 (89/53 ... 47/26 ... 1)
2011 NU - 20/7 (90/90 ... 50 / 24 ... 2)
2010 NU - 20/7 (116/132 ... 83/85 ... 6)
2009 NU - 17/8 (78/50 ... 65/43 ... 1)
18 conference games begin in 2008
2006 PSU - 15/6 (105/51 ... 110/85 ... 1)
2006 Minn - 16/5 (82/18 ... 73/50 ... 1)
2005 IU - 15/10
2004 Iowa - 16/9
2004 Purdue - 17/7
2003 Iowa - 17/7
2003 OSU - 17/7
2002 Iowa - 19/5
2002 Minn - 18/9
2001 Minn - 18/5
2001 Purdue - 17/6
2000 Mich - 15/6
2000 Purdue - 19/5

 

[hdhntr1]

OK, so that view is a little simplistic (especially for you, Dugan. Yes, here's a little something for the numbers geeks.)

It's a fair argument to say the Cats' schedule is crap and you think that will play into an NIT invitation. However, an NIT invite to a team with a schedule this bad in an incredibly mediocre B10 is not unprecedented. Take a look at the 2010 NU NIT resume.

Here's every B10 NIT team since 2000 with a less than 19 wins OR a league record worse than two games below .500. For the teams since 2006 (when the NCAA took over the NIT), I've included RPI and KenPom stats.

The Cats have some work to do. And is it too much to ask for a reasonable win against Purdue, OSU or Michigan?

But the idea that NU is nowhere near the NIT invite list is just idiotic. Enjoy the comparison.

Year Team - Total wins/B10 wins (RPI rank/RPI SOS rank ... KenPom rank / KP SOS rank ... RPI league rank)

2016 NU - TBD/TBD (104/151 ... 88/138 ... 6)

2014 Illinois - 20/7 (67/37 ... 49/16 ... 2)
2012 Minn - 23/6 (89/53 ... 47/26 ... 1)
2011 NU - 20/7 (90/90 ... 50 / 24 ... 2)
2010 NU - 20/7 (116/132 ... 83/85 ... 6)
2009 NU - 17/8 (78/50 ... 65/43 ... 1)
18 conference games begin in 2008
2006 PSU - 15/6 (105/51 ... 110/85 ... 1)
2006 Minn - 16/5 (82/18 ... 73/50 ... 1)
2005 IU - 15/10
2004 Iowa - 16/9
2004 Purdue - 17/7
2003 Iowa - 17/7
2003 OSU - 17/7
2002 Iowa - 19/5
2002 Minn - 18/9
2001 Minn - 18/5
2001 Purdue - 17/6
2000 Mich - 15/6
2000 Purdue - 19/5

I would guess that 8 BIG wins gets us to 20 wins and in for sure. Not sure about 7 and 19. Even with that, a BTT win gets us to 20

 

[hoosboot]

OK, so that view is a little simplistic (especially for you, Dugan. Yes, here's a little something for the numbers geeks.)

It's a fair argument to say the Cats' schedule is crap and you think that will play into an NIT invitation. However, an NIT invite to a team with a schedule this bad in an incredibly mediocre B10 is not unprecedented. Take a look at the 2010 NU NIT resume.

Here's every B10 NIT team since 2000 with a less than 19 wins OR a league record worse than two games below .500. For the teams since 2006 (when the NCAA took over the NIT), I've included RPI and KenPom stats.

The Cats have some work to do. And is it too much to ask for a reasonable win against Purdue, OSU or Michigan?

But the idea that NU is nowhere near the NIT invite list is just idiotic. Enjoy the comparison.

Year Team - Total wins/B10 wins (RPI rank/RPI SOS rank ... KenPom rank / KP SOS rank ... RPI league rank)

2016 NU - TBD/TBD (104/151 ... 88/138 ... 6)

2014 Illinois - 20/7 (67/37 ... 49/16 ... 2)
2012 Minn - 23/6 (89/53 ... 47/26 ... 1)
2011 NU - 20/7 (90/90 ... 50 / 24 ... 2)
2010 NU - 20/7 (116/132 ... 83/85 ... 6)
2009 NU - 17/8 (78/50 ... 65/43 ... 1)
18 conference games begin in 2008
2006 PSU - 15/6 (105/51 ... 110/85 ... 1)
2006 Minn - 16/5 (82/18 ... 73/50 ... 1)
2005 IU - 15/10
2004 Iowa - 16/9
2004 Purdue - 17/7
2003 Iowa - 17/7
2003 OSU - 17/7
2002 Iowa - 19/5
2002 Minn - 18/9
2001 Minn - 18/5
2001 Purdue - 17/6
2000 Mich - 15/6
2000 Purdue - 19/5

Thanks for the data, 112. Good stuff! However, I might quibble with the idea that there are a bunch of people around here saying that NU is nowhere near the NIT bubble. I'd reframe that to suggest that there have been several people (like me) saying that NU looks to be in trouble if we don't get a win against one of the B1G top half teams left on the schedule or in the B1G tournament. If all we do is beat the RPI 100+ teams left on the schedule (Illinois, Rutgers, Penn State, and Nebraska), we very well could find ourselves on the outside looking in.

The data you provide is interesting though. It might suggest that we have a shot if we get just those four bottom half wins. I've definitely seen a couple of posters suggest that the NIT is a slam dunk if we get to 20 wins. I think they might be disappointed, but a lot of it all depends on the details of who we are competing against for NIT spots. So, at least for the examples where there's more data to work with (2006 and beyond), what appear to be the outliers? There are only two teams that made it with a sub-100 RPI and kind of one team made it with a sub-100 SOS. The 2007 Cats are our own outlier, but our SOS currently is substantially worse than that example (or when Penn State made the NIT as a sub-100 RPI team.) I'd feel a lot better about our chances with a win vs. Purdue or Michigan or OSU or even a better W in the B1G Tourney.

 

[ricko6543211]

Thanks for the data, 112. Good stuff! However, I might quibble with the idea that there are a bunch of people around here saying that NU is nowhere near the NIT bubble. I'd reframe that to suggest that there have been several people (like me) saying that NU looks to be in trouble if we don't get a win against one of the B1G top half teams left on the schedule or in the B1G tournament. If all we do is beat the RPI 100+ teams left on the schedule (Illinois, Rutgers, Penn State, and Nebraska), we very well could find ourselves on the outside looking in.

The data you provide is interesting though. It might suggest that we have a shot if we get just those four bottom half wins. I've definitely seen a couple of posters suggest that the NIT is a slam dunk if we get to 20 wins. I think they might be disappointed, but a lot of it all depends on the details of who we are competing against for NIT spots. So, at least for the examples where there's more data to work with (2006 and beyond), what appear to be the outliers? There are only two teams that made it with a sub-100 RPI and kind of one team made it with a sub-100 SOS. The 2007 Cats are our own outlier, but our SOS currently is substantially worse than that example (or when Penn State made the NIT as a sub-100 RPI team.) I'd feel a lot better about our chances with a win vs. Purdue or Michigan or OSU or even a better W in the B1G Tourney.

I think I'm largely on the same page as you guys. 8 reg season conference wins should do it, or 7 + 1 in the BTT and I like our chances to barely make it. Winning tonight would help....

 

[Sec_112]

... However, I might quibble with the idea that there are a bunch of people around here saying that NU is nowhere near the NIT bubble ...

Quibble away, Hoos. Thanks for the good thouhgts.

I never said there were a bunch of people "here." There's a couple but there's plenty of others on other sites.

 

[hoosboot]

Quibble away, Hoos. Thanks for the good thouhgts.

I never said there were a bunch of people "here." There's a couple but there's plenty of others on other sites.

Gotcha...I don't read the other sites. Bummed we couldn't hold on tonight.

 

[ColumbusCatFan1_rivals]

I think I'm largely on the same page as you guys. 8 reg season conference wins should do it, or 7 + 1 in the BTT and I like our chances to barely make it. Winning tonight would help....

Yeah, I've been thinking the same with 7-11 (1-1) being the rare minimum to be in the mix. 20 wins seems to be the mark to make. Not because there's any inherent value the committee puts on in it during the process, but rather the data shows power 5 teams with that win total never miss out.

Would rather not put that theory to the test though...lets take care of business and pull an upset in Ann Arbor.

Also, cheer for stability during the first half of championship week.

 

[hdhntr1]

Yeah, I've been thinking the same with 7-11 (1-1) being the rare minimum to be in the mix. 20 wins seems to be the mark to make. Not because there's any inherent value the committee puts on in it during the process, but rather the data shows power 5 teams with that win total never miss out.

Would rather not put that theory to the test though...lets take care of business and pull an upset in Ann Arbor.

Also, cheer for stability during the first half of championship week.

And either case requires 8 wins against BIG opponents. If we win 8 in the regular season, likely in regardless of BTT. If we only win 7, likely need at least one win in BTT to make it. Either case means at least 20 wins.

 

[NURoseBowl]

Yeah, I've been thinking the same with 7-11 (1-1) being the rare minimum to be in the mix. 20 wins seems to be the mark to make. Not because there's any inherent value the committee puts on in it during the process, but rather the data shows power 5 teams with that win total never miss out.

Would rather not put that theory to the test though...lets take care of business and pull an upset in Ann Arbor.

Also, cheer for stability during the first half of championship week.

Very pertinent point.

 

[DaCat]

After beating the Illini tonight, if we go 3-2 the rest of the way in the regular season, we will be at 20 wins. Add one or two BTT victories and we are a lock for the NIT and on the bubble for The Big Dance. Definitely within reach.

 

[Styre]

After beating the Illini tonight, if we go 3-2 the rest of the way in the regular season, we will be at 20 wins. Add one or two BTT victories and we are a lock for the NIT and on the bubble for The Big Dance. Definitely within reach.

NIT perhaps but that scenario doesn't even get us in the same zip code as the NCAA bubble.

 

[Fitz51]

The NIT is a joke.

 

[Deeringfish]

The NIT is a joke.

I COULD USE A GOOD JOKE

 

[Wrestlerneverdiesasacatfan]

It would be good experience for next year to at least get into NIT. If we go 3-2 and then make the BT Championship game with three wins,we are going dancing

 

[EvanstonCat]

It would be good experience for next year to at least get into NIT. If we go 3-2 and then make the BT Championship game with three wins,we are going dancing

What if we run the table with wins at Purdue and Michigan and make a nice run in the BTT? Is the Dance not still a possibility? Remember the last couple of seasons when we went on late season runs that seemingly came out of nowhere. We're due!

What's wrong with a little hope and dreaming?

 

[JournCat]

I'd just love to get one big pelt on the wall this year. Wisconsin's run after we beat them helps.

 

[ColumbusCatFan1_rivals]

What if we run the table with wins at Purdue and Michigan and make a nice run in the BTT? Is the Dance not still a possibility? Remember the last couple of seasons when we went on late season runs that seemingly came out of nowhere. We're due!

What's wrong with a little hope and dreaming?

E,

The biggest hindrance to an at large birth is the incredibly weak non conference schedule. Add in a weaker than usual BIG and you have quite a hole to climb out of. In years past, the 'Cats have hung around the 5-8, 6-7 mark late in the season, but they had a much higher RPI and in some cases, a top 25 victory for two.

NU is currently 93rd according to Ken Pom. Seems like the 'Cats would have to beat Michigan and Purdue, but would also need take the rest of the remaining games in the regular season as well as the three you mentioned in the BTT.

We're talking about a 9 game winning streak in BIG play to finish the year to possibly get an at large. At that point, the odds would be more favorable for 4 straight in Indy and nabbing the auto bid.

 

[EvanstonCat]

E,

The biggest hindrance to an at large birth is the incredibly weak non conference schedule. Add in a weaker than usual BIG and you have quite a hole to climb out of. In years past, the 'Cats have hung around the 5-8, 6-7 mark late in the season, but they had a much higher RPI and in some cases, a top 25 victory for two.

NU is currently 93rd according to Ken Pom. Seems like the 'Cats would have to beat Michigan and Purdue, but would also need take the rest of the remaining games in the regular season as well as the three you mentioned in the BTT.

We're talking about a 9 game winning streak in BIG play to finish the year to possibly get an at large. At that point, the odds would be more favorable for 4 straight in Indy and nabbing the auto bid.

I don't know about that.

If we finished on a 5-0 run including over two more top 50 teams, and won 2 in the BTT, including one over a top 25 RPI team, that might might do it. We'd be 24-10 with a 8-1 finish. The committee loves strong finishes. I think that is more likely than us winning 4 games in Indy including over MSU or Maryland.

Said earlier, that I can't imagine us not getting in with 24 wins. Add on the end of the season run, and I would double down on that.

 

[Wrestlerneverdiesasacatfan]

Purdue is a tough team and we got to play em midweek. I got the Boilermakers by 14 or more

 

[DaCat]

I don't know about that.

If we finished on a 5-0 run including over two more top 50 teams, and won 2 in the BTT, including one over a top 25 RPI team, that might might do it. We'd be 24-10 with a 8-1 finish. The committee loves strong finishes. I think that is more likely than us winning 4 games in Indy including over MSU or Maryland.

Said earlier, that I can't imagine us not getting in with 24 wins. Add on the end of the season run, and I would double down on that.

I would love to see NU close the regular season out with a 5-0 run but don't think it'll happen. I agree that if we pull that off and get 2 wins in the BTT we would be a lock for The Big Dance.

 

[ColumbusCatFan1_rivals]

I don't know about that.

If we finished on a 5-0 run including over two more top 50 teams, and won 2 in the BTT, including one over a top 25 RPI team, that might might do it. We'd be 24-10 with a 8-1 finish. The committee loves strong finishes. I think that is more likely than us winning 4 games in Indy including over MSU or Maryland.

Said earlier, that I can't imagine us not getting in with 24 wins. Add on the end of the season run, and I would double down on that.

Would love to see it happen, but 24 wins unfortunately won't matter a lick to the committee. It's about RPI, Top 50 victories, SOS, and late season finish. The latter we'd have in spades, RPI and SOS not much. Michigan & Wisconsin are borderline top 50 teams that could easily fall out (weak BIG). At the moment, NU's resume isn't particularly glowing by even NIT standards. Too much hay to make up (the Maryland game could have been a huge boost).

I do think NU would get a little face time in the bubble discussion (but on the wrong side) if this scenario occurred. That alone would be a heck of an accomplishment.

Resume needs much work

 

[hdhntr1]

I don't know about that.

If we finished on a 5-0 run including over two more top 50 teams, and won 2 in the BTT, including one over a top 25 RPI team, that might might do it. We'd be 24-10 with a 8-1 finish. The committee loves strong finishes. I think that is more likely than us winning 4 games in Indy including over MSU or Maryland.

Said earlier, that I can't imagine us not getting in with 24 wins. Add on the end of the season run, and I would double down on that.

If we were to go 5-0 in the last 5 games of the season(actually it would be 6-0), it would give us 10 wins in conference and, have three quality wins (top half of conference) and at least 22wins . Not sure we need anything in the BTT or one at most to go to NCAA regardless of how weak our OOC schedule. The weakness means we need10 BIG wins rather than 9 but does not really require a lot more than that. That said, I always figured NIT for this year, especially once Law went down so I feel that all this NCAAA talk to be counterproductive.

 

[NJCat83588]

If we were to go 5-0 in the last5games of the season, it would give us 10 wins in conference and, have three quality wins and at least 21. Not sure we need anything in the BTT or one at most to go to NCAA regardless of how weak our OOC schedule. The weakness means we need10 BIG wins rather than 9 but does not really require a lot more than that.

NU would be in. No ifs, ands or buts about it.

Nice to dream but it ain't happening.

 

[willycat]

NU would be in. No ifs, ands or buts about it.

Nice to dream but it ain't happening.

Think that hd is right that winning out would put NU on the NCAA bubble but I'm thinking that winning 3 of remaining games, plus a BTT win maybe gets then into the NIT Thinking that tonight vs. Purdue is the toughest challenge, yet a upset there or more likely at Michigan and then taking care of business has them in the post season. Now if NU gives Collins an actual college arena the Cats will be dancing on a pretty regular basis.

 

[NJCat83588]

Think that hd is right that winning out would put NU on the NCAA bubble but I'm thinking that winning 3 of remaining games, plus a BTT win maybe gets then into the NIT Thinking that tonight vs. Purdue is the toughest challenge, yet a upset there or more likely at Michigan and then taking care of business has them in the post season. Now if NU gives Collins an actual college arena the Cats will be dancing on a pretty regular basis.

For once, I agree with you on all fronts, Willy. WRA is a complete dump. How Collins is able to recruit a series of 4*s with that crap arena is a miracle. And 21-12 would get NU into the NIT. But I have a bet with MW68 that NU falls just short........