I find it interesting that after every season lately we see discussions about the OAD and it’s negative impact, how we aren’t developing our bench, and we don’t have upper classmen leadership etc., but many of those same posters are looking over next year’s roster and saying we aren’t going to be good enough to win a title unless we sign Hurt and Watford and RJ and whoever else. Be it the right strategy or not, we all know at this point that K is gonna play his most talented guys big minutes, and when push comes to shove he’s going to whittle things down to a 7-8 man rotation. Just curious what people’s opinions are if we are possibly over-recruiting at some point? If we land Hurt are we going to get to see much of Joey or Jack? And if this happens, are we going to be seeing 30min a game from a kid who’s offensively gifted but not necessarily strong enough yet to defend at an ACC level? Not saying I wouldn’t want those guys, just curious if anyone sees a point where maybe having all of that depth and not using it isn’t really doing us any favors.
Over-recruiting?
- Thread starter BlueDaveil
- Start date
I was just looking at advanced stats for Conference play this year. We only had 3 rotation guys above a PER of 15. UNC and UVA both had 6 rotation guys above 15. We had no quality depth this year and I'm not all that confident we'll get much from those same guys next year.
I have no idea if the staff doesn't develop these guys, our approach on the court is a poor fit for what they could do well, or if they just aren't that good and we're making a lot of recruiting misevaluations with the guys a tier or two below the top guys. My guess is it's a bit of all of the above.
Regardless, I think we need a lot more talent on next year's team, especially if/when Tre declares.
I have no idea if the staff doesn't develop these guys, our approach on the court is a poor fit for what they could do well, or if they just aren't that good and we're making a lot of recruiting misevaluations with the guys a tier or two below the top guys. My guess is it's a bit of all of the above.
Regardless, I think we need a lot more talent on next year's team, especially if/when Tre declares.
I hate the remarks that we don’t / can’t develop players. Why do people think this way? We get the best of the best, 3-stars simply aren’t going to play right off the bat and it’s going to take a couple years before they are even at the level of freshmen we bring in. Same can be said for some of the 4-star guys as well. Some players sign a letter of intent thinking they will see immediate minutes and are wrong. Choosing to transfer. Is that really Duke’s fault? Jordan Tucker signed to play with a class boasting 4 NBA talents and an elite senior at his position, what did he expect? What do we as fans expect? Do you guys want to bench Trent Jr and/or Grayson so we can see what Jordan Tucker does? That’s one example out of 50 that I can make. It’s endless.
People want to point fingers before they actually sit back and THINK about why these players don’t see the court. Yeah, we have had a few failures but hasn’t everyone? Some player’s don’t translate to college well, others translate better than expected. Some are set-back by injuries, some unfortunately don’t fit the system after all.
That brings the ultimate question for the people saying we don’t develop players — Do you want to compete for a championship every single year the best way possible or do you want to gamble that opportunity so a non-OAD player might be better next year? I like to 110% compete every year.
People want to point fingers before they actually sit back and THINK about why these players don’t see the court. Yeah, we have had a few failures but hasn’t everyone? Some player’s don’t translate to college well, others translate better than expected. Some are set-back by injuries, some unfortunately don’t fit the system after all.
That brings the ultimate question for the people saying we don’t develop players — Do you want to compete for a championship every single year the best way possible or do you want to gamble that opportunity so a non-OAD player might be better next year? I like to 110% compete every year.
I agree with some of what you’re saying. But, K needs to do a better job with blending our role players and elites. Just taking this team that just finished, Zion is really the only one that showed major improvement. After his injury, he may have been our best shooter that played. RJ could not go right, Tre only had 2 games where he hit multiple 3’s, and we know how unreliable on offense Cam was. And those were our horses.
The role players aren’t improving like they should, or just aren’t good enough to improve.
If K wants to win another title, something has to change. Can’t play the horses almost the entire game, and still expect anything out of the others.
The JJ led teams of 05-06 are examples. Yes, it was fun watching JJ light it up in the regular season for 25-30, but our other guys stood around watching him score. Yet when he struggled in the ncaa tournament, the others were almost useless because we had been so dependent on him.
Have to get a little more balance. Have to.
My only complaint is that in the non conference against the lesser teams our bench players only play mop up time...get them some early minutes all those games against army, yale etc. We aren't losing those games anyway
Pretty much every team that has a superstar player will run everything through that player. They will touch the ball the most and shoot the most. That’s the burden of being the best. Everyone else role is to compliment him and pick him up when he’s off. Not JJ or Coach fault they couldn’t pick up their level of play.
If we actually use the bench i don’t think it’s a problem at all but the problem is we use the same 6-7 guys in a game and then the rest get no playing time. For some players 5-10 minutes versus 0 minutes is the difference in transferring. I just want to see our bench get used
Interesting thoughts - no right or wrong and civil...how a discussion should be ( so far)
I've recruited D1 ( different sports) and had the pleasure of coaching at that level. The demands are challenging to balance. Win but also develop for the future. At the moment, our program is a win now program, hence less emphasis on the long term player. That said, its puzzling to see players like Vrank, White, Jav...who had the ability to warrant a scholarship not develop at all. Each had ability to score and defend prior to the program, yet now seem to have little confidence in their ability to do so now. There was an article posted in another thread that talked about the challenges of changing to match the best way to integrate our new recruits every year...because they dominate the playing time...that puts our "long term" players in a difficult position. Essentially we are not a program but a different team every year.
My preference to this type of recruiting would be to follow our identity that Duke basketball was before OAD....a terrific PG who can penetrate and score or facilitate, a strong present inside to post up and rebound, athletic wings to drive when needed - yes, we get some of this with our OAD but sometimes the pieces don't fit. This year our PG wasn't able to penetrate and was an inconsistent scorer, our athletic wing ( cam) wasnt what was expected and our inside play was platooned and ineffective (Bolden and Jav). Our sophomore and Juniors didnt progress. I'm sure others will disagee...as boards do...but i think we are changing our program to fit the recruits vs finding recruits that fit the program. If we changed this model..our long term players would be more comfortable and familiar with their role and that should lead to confidence and development.
It does not prohibit getting OAD players but puts more empahsis on their fit into the scheme vs just raw ability.
Long post but just my thoughts on the subject....disagree away !!!
I've recruited D1 ( different sports) and had the pleasure of coaching at that level. The demands are challenging to balance. Win but also develop for the future. At the moment, our program is a win now program, hence less emphasis on the long term player. That said, its puzzling to see players like Vrank, White, Jav...who had the ability to warrant a scholarship not develop at all. Each had ability to score and defend prior to the program, yet now seem to have little confidence in their ability to do so now. There was an article posted in another thread that talked about the challenges of changing to match the best way to integrate our new recruits every year...because they dominate the playing time...that puts our "long term" players in a difficult position. Essentially we are not a program but a different team every year.
My preference to this type of recruiting would be to follow our identity that Duke basketball was before OAD....a terrific PG who can penetrate and score or facilitate, a strong present inside to post up and rebound, athletic wings to drive when needed - yes, we get some of this with our OAD but sometimes the pieces don't fit. This year our PG wasn't able to penetrate and was an inconsistent scorer, our athletic wing ( cam) wasnt what was expected and our inside play was platooned and ineffective (Bolden and Jav). Our sophomore and Juniors didnt progress. I'm sure others will disagee...as boards do...but i think we are changing our program to fit the recruits vs finding recruits that fit the program. If we changed this model..our long term players would be more comfortable and familiar with their role and that should lead to confidence and development.
It does not prohibit getting OAD players but puts more empahsis on their fit into the scheme vs just raw ability.
Long post but just my thoughts on the subject....disagree away !!!
It's an interesting theory. Over recruit with the thought that someone may transfer. If not, it's a win. It's a dilemma for sure. If no one transfers this offseason we'll have Jordan, AOC, Jack, Justin, Marquis, Javin and Baker as guys with experience. Most have NCAA tournament experience as well. Coach seems to play the hot hand with regards to the bench or it depends on the match up. In theory our freshman will not need to play big minutes as there are guys who can come off the bench. I am hoping we keep Tre and add Hurt. That would give us a solid team that could make a run in the tournament. I'd like to see our bench get a little more run as it would make our starters more fresh at the end of the season. We treat every game like it's the Super Bowl, which is fine as I'm not the goat.
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Baker didnt play enough to say he has experience. Baffled by K playing Goldwire in some games and then nothing the next after he clearly affected the game. AOC had a breakout game against Cuse, had a run of games playing more and then a poor game vs UNC and disappeared back to the bench...this is the type of playing pattern that is the most puzzling. When a bench player emerges...the disappear just as quick.
I really love Boogie’s game from what I’ve seen. Kid is athletic and can really shoot. I’m worried we may not see him really get much PT next season depending on whoever else is on the roster. I think a Tre (wishful thinking),Boogie, Moore, Hurt, Carey would be a small but intriguing lineup if we play inside out. Try to feed Carey in the post every time and if anyone helps off to stop him there are shooters everywhere.
I still question why bakers red shirt was lifted for 4 total minutes all year...I know the "K never does wrong" crowd will defend it but IMO and IMO only this was one of the dumbest decisions he has made
Not bashing the man cause his record speaks for itself but just a very questionable decision IMO
Wasted year
Not bashing the man cause his record speaks for itself but just a very questionable decision IMO
Wasted year
Good conversation and I think for a lot of posters liked mentioned above are the break out games of Alex and the defense of Goldwire yet they disappear back to the bench.
I get the whole situational player arguement but just like against Mich St we saw Javin play out his mind like many hoped he would play coming into college. Not an excellent player but a contributing role player.
Next season remains to be seen about the mixture of players especially since the roster isn’t set for next season yet.
To me atleast the key is the development of White, Alex, Goldwire, Baker and Javin. If they saw anything this season it should be that they are needed for a deep run.
I get the whole situational player arguement but just like against Mich St we saw Javin play out his mind like many hoped he would play coming into college. Not an excellent player but a contributing role player.
Next season remains to be seen about the mixture of players especially since the roster isn’t set for next season yet.
To me atleast the key is the development of White, Alex, Goldwire, Baker and Javin. If they saw anything this season it should be that they are needed for a deep run.
the Baker situation is very interesting...redshirting made sense when the cracks hadn't appeared in the early season, but as soon as it was apparent we were not a good outside shooting team and could use more depth for scoring, why not drop the redshirt then, if Baker wanted to play? He seems to have athletism and drive so adding another option seems like a good idea...it will be good to get a better view of him next year if he gets the mins
Baker didn't get a chance this year. Still he practiced all year against studs and should be ready to contribute next season. He still has 3 more seasons. Regarding the other bench players it's a glass half full/empty scenario. They seem to be in perfect position to become very good role players next season. Javin seems to have turned a corner, and Bolden did too before his injury.
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ACC basketball was just a little too much for Vrank. By all accounts, he’s the nicest guy in the world, though. He threw a wrench into the equation against UNC during the ACCT, but even in that game he was really slow to rebounds.
I’d give Javin a B- grade for the season. He was strong early, MIA for January and much of February, but came on again late. His offensive game (maybe it’s his hands) still leaves a lot to be desired.
Lastly, Jack. Is it the staffs fault he was really bad offensively the last three months? He looked outstanding early on and against some really good teams, too. Did he, to make up a word, undevelop? I think he hit a mental block and was done. Fortunately, even in the limited minutes he played down the stretch, he always seemed to defend and rebound. People forget that Jack played all 40 minutes against UVA back in January.
Role players compliment elite players, they don’t blend together. There are very few college role players who can attack the basket or create their own shot efficiently. They’re either in the game for defensive purposes, shooting or both. This year we couldn’t shoot so we had to live and die on our star players completely. It sucks but you can’t blame coaching. K can tweak things, like the famous 2-3 zone in ‘15 leading us to a banner. He can’t snap his fingers and make everyone shoot well. Shooting is a very slow improvement in majority of cases. Practice and encouragement is all that can be done, which I’m sure was.
You’re trying to make this season the narrative of Duke basketball and that’s just not true lol. When’s the last time we had a star or two with no help? 2010 we were a 3 man offensive show and won a national championship. JJ and the Landlord carried the offensive load in ‘06 but collectively that team just worked out that way. It wasn’t a bad offense. I would consider it a pure fluke that JJ went 3/18 for the first time in his career in the most important game. 3/18 is the most improbable of circumstances, not coaching failure.
We aren’t losing those games until we do. We lise to a team like those and people which bitchabout that as well.
Well honestly if we lose to army etc while giving back ups more than 3 minutes of garbage time PT then we have major problems
So we should play starters 40 min a game reguardless of competition because we "may" and I doubt lose to a lower team?
It seems like the ‘program’ kids that are brought in don’t develop because they are all high floor - low ceiling guys. Even at their peak, after 4 years their best is a 6th man or specialist role. Maybe that is by design or because K can’t get the others to come sit behind the OAD’s. Either way it is frustrating to see the mid majors and even teams like Tennessee, Carolina, Sparty have guys develop into major pieces that can be counted on in big time situations that also compliment their studs
You do realize we are Duke, right? What you’re basically saying is we are feast or famine. I’ve been saying that.
Sorry, but some of this is on coaching, not all, but some is. We can sing his praises when we win, but blame the players when we lose. We have a problem at Duke. We count on the one and dones way too much. There’s no balance. Seems like the better our elites are, the worse our others will be.
We’ve lost the last 3 years before we felt we should due to lack of balance. It’s really that simple.
Each year, the returning guys have to learn a new set of guys. Gone are the days where the guys coming in learn Duke, we have now become a place where the returning guys wait to see who’s coming in first, then learn a new way second.
We don’t know our identity until we know what the new guys strengths are.
I think our players and coach are collectively responsible for the failed expectations this year, but I think it’s hard to point fingers. Tre is useless in our half-court offense, Cam shoots substantially better on the move and he was mostly spot-up all year. AOC was way too stationary on offense to become the 3PT threat we desperately needed. Bolden had different levels of effort. Jack went from spectacular to unbelievably miserable. RJ had too much of a green light shooting rushed shots. He also took a lot of heat because when our offense failed we just relied on him to do something against all odds then roasted his efficiency. Zion was just solid. Some of that is at the blame of players, some of it is blame to coaching.
What I’m trying to get across is that while healthy, we only had 1 loss. Our half-court offense stalling was heavily masked by offensive rebounding. K pretended oblivious to this, which obviously hurt us in the long run. But as a coach, how do you force yourself into a totally different offense when you’re getting the wins? It’s hard to trash what’s somehow producing wins and instead gambling on a different offense..... I defend him because of that. It’s a tricky situation - If we changed things and it didn’t work, we’d all have the same blame coaching reaction that we do right now.
I hate the OAD era too, I miss the glory days of most guys staying 3-4 years but it is what it is. The past 2 years getting knocked out in the E8 has sucked, but we did win in 2015 which is still pretty recent. I think we’re still pretty blessed.
I don’t think it is that simple. The last few years we couldn’t get nearly enough stops to win, it had nothing to do with our lack of bench, we couldn’t play man to man defense. This year we were very good defensively we simply couldn’t shoot a lick, which allowed teams to pack the paint like I’ve never seen before. If we had a single reliable shooter, and don’t say Alex because he was ice cold in the tournament too we would have won this tournament going away, I really believe that. As good as RJ and Zion were they would have been that much better if they had more room to operate.
It is not as if each year we have the same issue. Some years it’s chemistry, some years it’s defense, some years we can’t shoot. There’s a group on here that want to break down our program because we haven’t won it all in 4 years. We don’t need radical changes, we need to identify our weaknesses and hopefully make the necessary changes to mitigate them. It’s tough with the one and done, there’s no way to know who will be back, if anyone.
The only knock I will ever have is when you look at Dukes bench this year, it regressed and could not find confidence when on the court.
The one knock, like Goldwire for instance his defense became as needed. He was needed on the floor when K saw he could help disrupt but those games were far and in between. I just don’t see a player developing much offense or defense when your considered “ a situational player”.
Some times you can hurt a players confidence just as much as you can help it.
I’ll always be in on the side that Baker should have never removed his red shirt with four regular season games to only play in two then one in the tourney.
Even if he doesn’t have plans to stay for a fifth year his limited game time leaves more questions then answer as to what kind of scoring he can do at this level.
The one knock, like Goldwire for instance his defense became as needed. He was needed on the floor when K saw he could help disrupt but those games were far and in between. I just don’t see a player developing much offense or defense when your considered “ a situational player”.
Some times you can hurt a players confidence just as much as you can help it.
I’ll always be in on the side that Baker should have never removed his red shirt with four regular season games to only play in two then one in the tourney.
Even if he doesn’t have plans to stay for a fifth year his limited game time leaves more questions then answer as to what kind of scoring he can do at this level.
The best thread I have seen since visiting this site! I believe that Duke currently has plenty of talent to win the NCAA tournament next year. I'm not getting paid millions to coach. Hopefully, those who are getting paid know more than I .
But, if Jones and Bolden return, I certainly don't think another high-profile player is needed. Kira Lewis , the potential transfer from Alabama, is the only player mentioned who I think would definitely improve the team without disrupting chemistry.
But, if Jones and Bolden return, I certainly don't think another high-profile player is needed. Kira Lewis , the potential transfer from Alabama, is the only player mentioned who I think would definitely improve the team without disrupting chemistry.
Lots of good points here and nice that the thread hasn't turned into a pissing match.
I think what some fodget, or underappreciate, is some severe "fluke" occurrences the last three years.
This year. We knew Tre wasn't t a good 3 pt shooter and that Cam could disappear once in a while, but who in the world would have predicted Tres horrible 3 pt shooting and Cam being a liability in far more games than he was an asset? I love and support them both. They played hard. If they contributed half of what was reasonably expected, teams cant pack the lane, double and tripple RJ and Zion, and we are almost unstoppable. Throw in Jack's mysterious (undisclosed injury?) disappearance shooting the ball and what can anyone reasonably expect?
Last year. Grayson should have been an All American candidate. 2nd Team All ACC level of play, a conservative expectation, and we cut down the nets. Just him. What about Duval? Top 5 recruit, #1 pt guard. Even without an outside shot, who the heck didn't expect more? Oh yeah, 2 guys like Jackson and Kennard leave before expected (when that team was being built). Damn, forgot about the PG who transferred.
2 years ago. Most injury damaged yeam I have ever seen. Tatum, Bolden, Giles, Grayson, Jefferson, Jackson, and the Az transfer. Take away any one of those injuries and we are a one seed and most likely in Final 4 and great chance to win it all. Then get screwed by playing an underseeded team in their back yard.
Now maybe that is a lot of excuses. I tend to believe snake bit is more in line with the true reality.
I think what some fodget, or underappreciate, is some severe "fluke" occurrences the last three years.
This year. We knew Tre wasn't t a good 3 pt shooter and that Cam could disappear once in a while, but who in the world would have predicted Tres horrible 3 pt shooting and Cam being a liability in far more games than he was an asset? I love and support them both. They played hard. If they contributed half of what was reasonably expected, teams cant pack the lane, double and tripple RJ and Zion, and we are almost unstoppable. Throw in Jack's mysterious (undisclosed injury?) disappearance shooting the ball and what can anyone reasonably expect?
Last year. Grayson should have been an All American candidate. 2nd Team All ACC level of play, a conservative expectation, and we cut down the nets. Just him. What about Duval? Top 5 recruit, #1 pt guard. Even without an outside shot, who the heck didn't expect more? Oh yeah, 2 guys like Jackson and Kennard leave before expected (when that team was being built). Damn, forgot about the PG who transferred.
2 years ago. Most injury damaged yeam I have ever seen. Tatum, Bolden, Giles, Grayson, Jefferson, Jackson, and the Az transfer. Take away any one of those injuries and we are a one seed and most likely in Final 4 and great chance to win it all. Then get screwed by playing an underseeded team in their back yard.
Now maybe that is a lot of excuses. I tend to believe snake bit is more in line with the true reality.
Who said play starters 40 minutes per game? Don’t put words in my mouth. If we lose to a team we shouldn’t cause we are playing 10 deep you’ll be the first one on here bitching that we play too many guys.
And don't tell me what you THINK I will do if that happens Cause you don't know Jack **** about me...now go play with your dolls
I'm relax dude...just don't like people coming at me like they did...they need to relax too
Agreed the whole thing needs to relax. You have strong opinions on Cam, i can see where they’re coming from, myself included but they also need to tone it down.
I find the concept of over-recruiting to be stupid. This is Duke were talking here, not Clemson or Wake Forest. High School kids know we are the cream of the crop, and they know that if you can get minutes for Duke, you are good enough to be a professional basketball player.
If you're one of the best players in the country, you can come to Duke and most likely see immediate minutes. If you're not one of the best players in America, than you better work your butt off the second you get here if you ever want to see any real minutes.
Do we rely too much on our one-and-dones? Yeah, but I think it's been due to the lack of growth of our other guys.
Why have guys like Javin, Bolden, AOC not really progressed? Heck, even Grayson peaked as a sophomore and never really improved again. To me, the lacking improvement of multi-year guys is the #1 issue for Duke basketball. And sorry, I don't buy the whole "the staff is only concerned about the stars" argument.
P.S. Losing Jordan Tucker is gonna hurt over the next few years. I still follow him on IG, and the guy has made massive improvements on his body. Can't say the same about AOC (who the staff chose to play as a freshman over Tucker.)
If you're one of the best players in the country, you can come to Duke and most likely see immediate minutes. If you're not one of the best players in America, than you better work your butt off the second you get here if you ever want to see any real minutes.
Do we rely too much on our one-and-dones? Yeah, but I think it's been due to the lack of growth of our other guys.
Why have guys like Javin, Bolden, AOC not really progressed? Heck, even Grayson peaked as a sophomore and never really improved again. To me, the lacking improvement of multi-year guys is the #1 issue for Duke basketball. And sorry, I don't buy the whole "the staff is only concerned about the stars" argument.
P.S. Losing Jordan Tucker is gonna hurt over the next few years. I still follow him on IG, and the guy has made massive improvements on his body. Can't say the same about AOC (who the staff chose to play as a freshman over Tucker.)
You are right about Tucker.
He shot 135 3’s and made 50. Duke sure could have used a 37 percent 3 pt shooter who averaged 9.7 pts a game.
He shot 135 3’s and made 50. Duke sure could have used a 37 percent 3 pt shooter who averaged 9.7 pts a game.
I wouldn’t argue that we would be over-recruiting in terms of our role player type guys getting fewer minutes. We should get the best players we can and play them as much as we can. My question is more, are we scooping up every five star guy we can get our hands on to the detriment of team makeup?
For example: assuming Tre is coming back, many people are still hoping we can also land RJ Hampton. Hampton is a great looking prospect who would be great for us if we weren’t getting Tre back but would he help next year’s team assuming we have Hurt and a sophomore Tre? From what I understand about him he is athletic, fairly ball dominant and not an amazing shooter yet. At the same time, we know if we land a guy of his caliber, he’s probably going to play big minutes no matter what. So are we supplanting having a starting lineup with Tre and a ton of shooters to having a 2 pg lineup where our top 2 guards may be questionable from outside? Maybe his length, defense, vision and driving ability would outweigh those concerns, maybe it wouldn’t.
It’s the same stuff from most...Player on the bench is better than player on the court. Player that left is better than players that stayed. The easiest argument ever is to say that the decision that wasn’t made is the one that should have been made. Armchair coaching 101.
Easy answer, yes Duke would be better with RJ Hampton next year. Tre comes back he is the PG no matter what.
RJ would most likely battle and beat out AOC for the starting 2 position. We would have 2 amazing ball-handlers just like we did in 2015. We would also still have plenty of shooting with AOC, Baker, Hurt, and even Carey can stroke it. Jack finding his stroke again would be an added bonus.
All that said....I don't buy that Hampton comes here if Tre returns. I think he is gonna wait it out. I hope he stays in the class of 2020 and comes to Duke after. If he reclassifies and Tre returns, I'm reading Memphis is the leader.