Plaino my friend A softball question

[bullmarket]

OU now is ranked #8 in the polls I looked back to past years of the rankings & historically
the top eight ranked teams hosted both a regional and a super regional if they won their regional.

The way I figure it if OU maintains at least a top 8 ranking they should host both a regional and a super.The RPIs are built into the rankings.

The WCWS will host the eight super regional winners.

What do you think my friend of OU's chances of hosting both?

 

[Plainosooner_rivals54053]

Bull, I wouldn't say that the polls are meaningless. In t.he ESPN/USA Softball polls, you're right. As of yesterday Arizona is 1 and OU is 8. But that really doesn't mean much.

In the coaches poll, called the USA Today/NFCA coaches poll also released yesterday, Florida State was ranked first and OU was 10th. And that also doesn't mean much.

The Softball RPI rankings are very important. In that "poll" which really isn't a poll, Arizona is 1 and OU is 14th. And I believe OU is going to have a very hard time moving up into the crucial top 8.

Curiiously, UCLA, whom OU run-ruled, is 5th. But there is only one team left on the Sooner schedule, that is ranked ahead of us: Baylor. No other school from the XII, remaining on OU's schedule is in the top 35. OSU is 39. Texas is still at 32, which seems stranges since OSU swept them in Stillwater. And OSU is tied for first in the conference, undefeated in the league so far, while Texas is winless in the conference 0-6, only ahead of Iowa State who is horrible, and 0-9. There are only four teams in the XII ranked in the top 100.

I'd remind you that OU was ranked in the top eight two years ago, and but not in the RPI. And they ended up seeded 11 and had to go to Alabama in the Supers.

Here's the present problem. If OU is undefeated the rest of the year, meaning that they won the XII undefeated, I think it's likely less than 50-50 to get a top eight seed. If they lose a game or two, which I believe is very likely, then top eight isn't going to happen.

The top14 right now, looks like this in the RPI.

1 Arizona who owns a win over OU on a neutral field
2 Auburn who has a win over OU on a neutral field
3 Florida
4 Texas A&M
5 UCLA, whom OU run ruled
6 Florida State
7 Washington who owns a win over OU on a neutral field
8 Oregon
9 Baylor Opportunity here
10 LSU
11 Tennessee who owns a win over OU on a neutral field
12 Alabama
13 Minnesota
14 OU

You have to wait and see what happens in the Pac 12, the SEC and to a lesser extent, the ACC. If OU sweeps Baylor or even if we wins two of three, then we pass Baylor. But OU is going to have a hard time passing three Pac 12 teams: Arizona, Washington, or Oregon. Maybe if Oregon goes in the tank, but that's unlikely.

There are six SEC schools ranked ahead of OU, I don't see us passing more than two. Auburn, Florida, A&M, LSU UTenn and Bama all have much more SOS, and OU's RPI can't pass any of them. We'd have to have everything go perfectly to pass three. If we pass three, we have a chance, if we win out. Did it last year. But this team isn't as good.

The offense is just not very good right now. And the defense has shown a chink or two. Romero has some physical issues, and her defense is mostly shining still, but she's missed a ball or two in important situations that she didn't last season. All of the rookies that are playing, are really talented. But they're not as competent at the plate or in the field as the two seniors were last season.

The two teams that OU has played in the conference so far were hurting (Texas) and horrible (Iowa State). OSU is better than they've been. There new coach has done a great job with them. But they went out and lost to Tulsa last week, while undefeated in the XII. It doesn't help.

OU's losses are to (RPI ranking) Arizona 1, Auburn 2, Washington 7, UTenn 11, Notre Dame 34 and twice to Cal Poly 44. Cal Poly is a decent team, with a really good pitcher, and OU has done nothing against good pitching this season.

OU's best wins are against UCLA 5 in a run rule, BYU 16, Arkansas 27, Tulsa 30, three times at Texas 32, Mississippi State 33, Ole Miss 36, Louisville 46. OU also has wins over Wichita State, Nebraska and has a makeup game left at North Texas, all ranked between 50 and 70..

So OU has only one win against the top 15 and the only opportunity to increase that are the three games when Baylor visits Norman starting in nine days.

Also left on the schedule are Oklahoma State 39, Texas Tech, 109 and this weekend at Kansas 118. Meanwhile, the SEC has all 13 schools ranked in the top 36, nine of them in the top 22. Six in the top 12. So every game give them a bump in RPI. Plus their conference tournaments give even more RPI improvement chances. If we don't pass any of the top three from the Pac 12, and don't pass the top four in the SEC, which I'd doubt, then the only way we get in the top eight is if we are ranked ahead of every ACC and Big Ten teams.

I think it's going to be hard, with this schedule to make the top eight. I've been wrong before.

 

[bullmarket]

Bull, I wouldn't say that the polls are meaningless. In t.he ESPN/USA Softball polls, you're right. As of yesterday Arizona is 1 and OU is 8. But that really doesn't mean much.

In the coaches poll, called the USA Today/NFCA coaches poll also released yesterday, Florida State was ranked first and OU was 10th. And that also doesn't mean much.

The Softball RPI rankings are very important. In that "poll" which really isn't a poll, Arizona is 1 and OU is 14th. And I believe OU is going to have a very hard time moving up into the crucial top 8.

Curiiously, UCLA, whom OU run-ruled, is 5th. But there is only one team left on the Sooner schedule, that is ranked ahead of us: Baylor. No other school from the XII, remaining on OU's schedule is in the top 35. OSU is 39. Texas is still at 32, which seems stranges since OSU swept them in Stillwater. And OSU is tied for first in the conference, undefeated in the league so far, while Texas is winless in the conference 0-6, only ahead of Iowa State who is horrible, and 0-9. There are only four teams in the XII ranked in the top 100.

I'd remind you that OU was ranked in the top eight two years ago, and but not in the RPI. And they ended up seeded 11 and had to go to Alabama in the Supers.

Here's the present problem. If OU is undefeated the rest of the year, meaning that they won the XII undefeated, I think it's likely less than 50-50 to get a top eight seed. If they lose a game or two, which I believe is very likely, then top eight isn't going to happen.

The top14 right now, looks like this in the RPI.

1 Arizona who owns a win over OU on a neutral field
2 Auburn who has a win over OU on a neutral field
3 Florida
4 Texas A&M
5 UCLA, whom OU run ruled
6 Florida State
7 Washington who owns a win over OU on a neutral field
8 Oregon
9 Baylor Opportunity here
10 LSU
11 Tennessee who owns a win over OU on a neutral field
12 Alabama
13 Minnesota
14 OU

You have to wait and see what happens in the Pac 12, the SEC and to a lesser extent, the ACC. If OU sweeps Baylor or even if we wins two of three, then we pass Baylor. But OU is going to have a hard time passing three Pac 12 teams: Arizona, Washington, or Oregon. Maybe if Oregon goes in the tank, but that's unlikely.

There are six SEC schools ranked ahead of OU, I don't see us passing more than two. Auburn, Florida, A&M, LSU UTenn and Bama all have much more SOS, and OU's RPI can't pass any of them. We'd have to have everything go perfectly to pass three. If we pass three, we have a chance, if we win out. Did it last year. But this team isn't as good.

The offense is just not very good right now. And the defense has shown a chink or two. Romero has some physical issues, and her defense is mostly shining still, but she's missed a ball or two in important situations that she didn't last season. All of the rookies that are playing, are really talented. But they're not as competent at the plate or in the field as the two seniors were last season.

The two teams that OU has played in the conference so far were hurting (Texas) and horrible (Iowa State). OSU is better than they've been. There new coach has done a great job with them. But they went out and lost to Tulsa last week, while undefeated in the XII. It doesn't help.

OU's losses are to (RPI ranking) Arizona 1, Auburn 2, Washington 7, UTenn 11, Notre Dame 34 and twice to Cal Poly 44. Cal Poly is a decent team, with a really good pitcher, and OU has done nothing against good pitching this season.

OU's best wins are against UCLA 5 in a run rule, BYU 16, Arkansas 27, Tulsa 30, three times at Texas 32, Mississippi State 33, Ole Miss 36, Louisville 46. OU also has wins over Wichita State, Nebraska and has a makeup game left at North Texas, all ranked between 50 and 70..

So OU has only one win against the top 15 and the only opportunity to increase that are the three games when Baylor visits Norman starting in nine days.

Also left on the schedule are Oklahoma State 39, Texas Tech, 109 and this weekend at Kansas 118. Meanwhile, the SEC has all 13 schools ranked in the top 36, nine of them in the top 22. Six in the top 12. So every game give them a bump in RPI. Plus their conference tournaments give even more RPI improvement chances. If we don't pass any of the top three from the Pac 12, and don't pass the top four in the SEC, which I'd doubt, then the only way we get in the top eight is if we are ranked ahead of every ACC and Big Ten teams.

I think it's going to be hard, with this schedule to make the top eight. I've been wrong before.

Plaino I strongly differ with you completely about the importance of the RPI. IT IS BUILT INTO THE POLL RANKINGS AS A COMPONENT. Individually it s meaningless. It is just one poll component as polls have many different components

RPI is not a game or an actual poll it is SUBJECTIVE POLL COMPONENT about who should have a high or a lower RPI.

OU I believe now has the longest winning streak in the nation. They also have the longest winning streak in conference. play.

For the entire season OU is 16-0 in Norman and 8-0 away.

Of the teams in that RPI ranking
OU has HAD ONLY A ONE RUN LOSS GAME in each game to
(Arizona Washington, Tenn, ND & Auburn). and OKLAHOMA STOMPED UCLA 10-1 who is ranked # 5 in the RPI.

If OU continues this long winning streak & their Big 12 winning streak I have no doubt
that OU hosts both a Regional & a Super Regional.

The actual polls not a RPI individually will put them in as hosts for both.

 

[Plainosooner_rivals54053]

Bull, I hope you're right, but it wasn't the case two years ago. And I think your argument is a little circular. OU's 14th place ranking in this week's RPI, already includes the two polls where we're listed at 8 and 10. But the reason we're lower is because of fewer wins against the national top ten and top 16. And because of an overall shortage of SOS. And except for Baylor, the opportunity to improve that is pretty slim.

RPI isn't the only factor in seeding, but it's really the only ranking component that is. The two voted polls are a small RPI component. but it's more about overall record. Citing OU's current winning streak isn't meaningless, but it's not far from it. The Sooners have one win over Arkansas, who is 27th in RPI. They are also 10th place in the 13 team SEC. And we have three wins over Texas who is 32 in the RPI, but they're also winless in the Big XII. The other nine wins are against truly lowly college softball teams. Three wins over Iowa State, 0-9 in the XII, and number 163 in the RPI.

There are two wins over UAB (148th), Louisiana Tech, (96th) and Depaul (127th). The streak started with a home win over Mississippi State whose RPI is 33rd, but they are the 9th place team in the SEC The Bulldogs might be a marginal team to get into the NCAA tournament. None of these others are. Kansas, whom OU beat today is 118th.

Beating these teams, is a given for anybody expected to host a regional, much less, a Super.

 

[bullmarket]

Bull, I hope you're right, but it wasn't the case two years ago. And I think your argument is a little circular. OU's 14th place ranking in this week's RPI, already includes the two polls where we're listed at 8 and 10. But the reason we're lower is because of fewer wins against the national top ten and top 16. And because of an overall shortage of SOS. And except for Baylor, the opportunity to improve that is pretty slim.

RPI isn't the only factor in seeding, but it's really the only ranking component that is. The two voted polls are a small RPI component. but it's more about overall record. Citing OU's current winning streak isn't meaningless, but it's not far from it. The Sooners have one win over Arkansas, who is 27th in RPI. They are also 10th place in the 13 team SEC. And we have three wins over Texas who is 32 in the RPI, but they're also winless in the Big XII. The other nine wins are against truly lowly college softball teams. Three wins over Iowa State, 0-9 in the XII, and number 163 in the RPI.

There are two wins over UAB (148th), Louisiana Tech, (96th) and Depaul (127th). The streak started with a home win over Mississippi State whose RPI is 33rd, but they are the 9th place team in the SEC The Bulldogs might be a marginal team to get into the NCAA tournament. None of these others are. Kansas, whom OU beat today is 118th.

Beating these teams, is a given for anybody expected to host a regional, much less, a Super.

 

[bullmarket]

Why OU is 8th now in the widely respected ESPN USA poll are several factors

1. The long winning streaks continuing including the on the road winning streak & the conference winning streak.
2. The studs from last season who propelled us to the Nat Ch are now healthy again & are producing like Knighten.
3. The great OU pitching depth which makes us a better team this season
4. OU for the entire season is undefeated BOTH at home & on the road. The only losses are at neutral sites & of OU's 7 losses most to good teams five of the losses were BY ONLY ONE RUN.
If OU had won the FIVE ONE RUN GAMES INSTEAD OF LOSING THEM OU's record would now be 40-2.
5. ATTITUDE! This OU team now is getting the same winning aggressive attitude as last season

All of these reasons are 100 times more important to the voters than just the RPI.

I say again if OU continues to win and play like they are doing now they will host a Regional and a Super.

I feel certain this will happen.

 

[Plainosooner_rivals54053]

It would be like the OU football team having a six game winning streak against teams that Baylor plays at the start of the season every year. If you beat three teams from the Sun Belt, plus SMU, Kansas and Iowa State, it's nice that you won six in a row. But it's less likely to get you into the final four, than a one loss team from the SEC.

And in this case, OU's record isn't as good as those ahead of them.

Now in support of your point, I was looking at A&M's schedule yesterday, and was amazed at who they do not play this season from the SEC. And they are fourth in the RPI. There are six SEC teams in the top 12, but of the other five, A&M only plays one, Tennessee, in a three game series in their final regular season games. They will face some in the SEC tournament if they last that long. Despite being in the West, they don't play LSU, Bama or Auburn during the regular season, nor Florida.

And they do have a good win over Florida State. when they went 5-0 in the Mary Nutter Classic, four of the wins over ranked teams. OU went 3-2 in the same tournament. That was the tournament where OU run ruled UCLA. But in that same tourney, one of A&M's wins was over Florida State, who was number one at the time. Right now, Florida State is 38-1-1 with the only loss to A&M, but they're sixth in the RPI.

You were talking about OU's road wins, but really, the only team that's close any good, whom they've beaten on the road was last weekend at Texas. The Sooners have also beaten Long Beach State, 78th, Wichita State 65th RPI and Houston twice, 93rd RPI. Already discussed the details of Texas earlier. They're going to get some conference wins, but right now, they're 0-6. One thing about Houston: they've given A&M one of their three losses.

For the Sooners to have a chance, they're going to have to sweep Baylor at home and OSU, which is one of those back and forth series, two in Stillwater and one in Norman. OU already has seven losses, and one win against a top ten team. The good news about this discussion, is that there will be a definitive decision. But I don't think the politics will help OU, as you suggest, because they're defending national champs. We'll see.

 

[bullmarket]

So you are saying even though they are now in the polls #8-#10 with OU now healthy & playing the best softball of the year
that you say the RPI is the "god" of factors?

I differ 1000% my friend. It will be the polls in my opinion who determines the regional and super regional hosts.
If the polls have OU #8 or better, I think they will host both.

Also OU lost 5 games by only 1 run to many of the nations best teams when they were injured & not playing their best softball early with so much new youth to intergrate into their lineup. .

My good friend Plaino, the difference in our opinions is you stress the RPI & I stress the polls & the external factors of OU is now playing their best softball of the season.

We will soon see who is correct.

The great thing is that we both are Sooners & both of us will love to see OU softball have back to back National Championships.

 

[Plainosooner_rivals54053]

I'm saying that teams with better records against better schedules get more consideration. And I'm saying that most teams in the top 20 would have the same winning streak against such weak competition. Beating up on lousy teams isn't an indication of anything great.

If we win out during the regular season and sweep the Big XII tournament, we might merit something. Might. But Kansas is a below average team. They're not ranked in the top 100. We struggled with them. OU hasn't hit good pitching with good defenses all year. That hasn't improved.

Knighten isn't healed yet. She re-injured her knee against Texas last weekend. We didn't earn much of anything against Texas. Texas made errors, while missing two of the everyday starters. And the backup at second gave OU more than half of their runs on the weekend.

 

[bullmarket]

[QUOTE="Pl
RPI vs. the polls.

You pointed out aTm
They have played nobody in the SEC yet the RPI has them high.aTm is #4 in the RPI...Why?

I think this proves how flawed the RPI is.

LINK....Texas A&M schedule (look at all of the low RPI ranked teams they have played)
no Auburn, no Florida no Alabama. Missouri & Miss State beat them.
http://www.12thman.com/schedule.aspx?path=softball&print=true&version=1

 

[Plainosooner_rivals54053]

A&M is up there, because even the 10th 11th and 12th places teams in the SEC are in the top 30 in RPIl. And A&M swept OSU last weekend, who is tied for first and undefeated in the Big XII. And because they won five of five in the Mary Nutter Classic, including wins over four ranked teams, including a win over then number ranked Florida State, which until yesterday was their only loss of the season. Keep in mind that Florida State, who is sixth in the RPI, which seem too low to me, swept a three game series from Notre Dame 6-0, 6-0 and 16-0. So they shut them out three times by a combined score of 28-0. ND beat OU in Mary Nutter, where A&M went 5-0.

So there are a lot of reasons. But I'm not making a case for RPI. I'm just saying that it is what the committee looks at, not so much the rankings, because RPI considers SOS and that should matter.