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Points per game estimates. What say you?

Son_Of_Saul

Son_Of_Saul

Heisman
Dec 7, 2007
44,487
94,901
113
Additionally, I think Chandler, Garrison, and Oweh explode in their second season under Pope.

Chandler somewhere between 12 to 14 ppg as a sophomore; Garrison somewhere in the same vicinity. Oweh potentially a leading scorer for Kentucky as a senior. Perry and Noah will both take a huge step forward as well.
 
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Son_Of_Saul

Son_Of_Saul

Heisman
Dec 7, 2007
44,487
94,901
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The most difficult player for me to analyze is Chandler. I think he and Garrison have the most NBA potential on this roster. Does Chandler jump right in and surprise BBN in his first year? Will he need a season of conditioning after being on a foreign mission for two years?

He's the kind of player that I could see surprising us all. I do think he becomes our best scorer in year #2, regardless of what he does this season.
 
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A

akaukswoosh

Hall of Famer
Jan 14, 2006
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Son_Of_Saul said:
Here's my view on the points per game distribution. I'd like to see yours as well.

Robinson: 12ppg
Carr: 12ppg
Williams: 10ppg
Kriisa: 10ppg
Brea: 10ppg
Oweh: 8ppg
Garrison: 8ppg
Butler: 6ppg
Chandler: 4ppg
Almonor: 4ppg
Rest of the team: 3ppg
Click to expand...
Might be underestimating Garrison. He had three 20+ point games as a green frosh. I can see him averaging double figures.
 
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Son_Of_Saul

Son_Of_Saul

Heisman
Dec 7, 2007
44,487
94,901
113
Smashcat said:
Might be underestimating Garrison. He had three 20+ point games as a green frosh. I can see him averaging double figures.
Click to expand...
I can totally see that. The three highest potential guys on this roster are Oweh, Garrison, and Chandler.
 
CELTICAT

CELTICAT

Heisman
May 21, 2002
18,926
17,638
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Agree that we have a pretty even distribution across our top four. 12-14 per game between Robinson, Brea, Kriisa, Carr. Butler at about 8-9 ppg. Suspect our bigs will only be in the 7-8 ppg range just based on usage. Oweh around 6 ppg. Freshmen will only be human victory cigars.
 
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Killswitch24

All-Conference
May 21, 2024
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Saul you’ve got Robinson way too low. I’m thinking 16-18 ppg. He’s gonna have a green light like never before and they’re gonna feeD him. We’re gonna shoot early and often. I see no way he’s at 12 ppg. At least 15. I also think Garrison will average more than 8 but it’s possible.

-**edit, wow suprised to see so many agree with Saul on Jaxson. I don’t see it. We’ll mark the thread and come back another day for my sht sandwich I guess.
 
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ukfan041

All-American
Apr 3, 2007
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zoid1 said:
Robinson 15.2
Brea 12.5
Carr 11.7
Oweh 10.1
William 10.1
Kriisa 9.1
Butler 5.8
Garrison 5.5
Almoror 4.3
Collins 3.1
Noah 1.5
Perry 1.1

About 90 ppg.
Click to expand...
Kinda where I’m at, the only difference is I think Butler will be at 8-9 ppg. All those shooters gonna open up driving lanes for him. I believe we’ll average 88-90 ppg
 
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ukfan041

All-American
Apr 3, 2007
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My question is does he start both Kriisa and Butler? Initially, I thought I’d be Brea starting in the backcourt with Butler, but there is something about Kriisa where I think he may start too
 
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bucsrule8872

Heisman
May 30, 2005
24,397
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I’m going conservative. Last year, at BYU, Pope’s team scored a little over 80 a game (81.8). This team is more talented, but will have to jell, so I don’t expect a well oiled machine, especially early on. Also, this team will be better defensively than BYU last season, so they won’t have to score as much. Also, these guys all have to adjust to playing in the SEC. All those factors will keep the scoring down a bit. I just can’t see them scoring 90 a game, given the circumstances. If this team scores 90 a game and plays defense like they are capable of, this team will be one of the favorites to win it all.

And I suspect this team will have balanced scoring. I could be totally wrong, but I feel like we will have a different guy step up every night. Robinson will be the most consistent scorer, most likely, since he understands the system already.

So here are my projections (rounded to the nearest whole number):

Robinson- 11
Carr- 10
Brea- 10
Kriisa- 9
Oweh- 9
Butler- 8
Williams- 7
Garrison- 7
Almonor- 6
Chandler- 2
Perry/Noah/Walk-ons- 1
Total- 80

By positions:

PG (Butler/Kriisa)- 12
SG (Brea/Oweh/Kriisa/Perry)- 19
SF (Robinson/Oweh/Chandler/Noah)- 19
PF (Carr/Almonor)- 16
C (Williams/Garrison)- 14
 
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bucsrule8872

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May 30, 2005
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ukfan041 said:
My question is does he start both Kriisa and Butler? Initially, I thought I’d be Brea starting in the backcourt with Butler, but there is something about Kriisa where I think he may start too
Click to expand...
I think Butler will start at the 1 and he will try different combos on the wings. Kriisa and Robinson might start one game and then Kriisa and Brea the next, then Oweh and Robinson the next. Even Chandler might get a start at some point.

Last year, Pope brought his top two scorers off the bench most games (Robinson, Traore), so starting isn’t as big of a deal as some might think. I doubt a starting five will be settled on before the end of January, if then.
 
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Mike-D

Mike-D

Heisman
Jul 14, 2001
49,551
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bucsrule8872 said:
I think Butler will start at the 1 and he will try different combos on the wings. Kriisa and Robinson might start one game and then Kriisa and Brea the next, then Oweh and Robinson the next. Even Chandler might get a start at some point.

Last year, Pope brought his top two scorers off the bench most games (Robinson, Traore), so starting isn’t as big of a deal as some might think. I doubt a starting five will be settled on before the end of January, if then.
Click to expand...

Wish Pope had the Reeves, Reed, Rob trio to work with. What a wasted season.
 
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Mike-D

Mike-D

Heisman
Jul 14, 2001
49,551
72,164
113
Son_Of_Saul said:
Actually, I'm thinking about 84ppg among the top 10. The bottom two could average 3/game but it wouldn't factor in the overall average because I don't think they play every game.

Plus, Pope's kids scored 81/game last season with lesser talent at every position. 84 to 85 is doable.
Click to expand...

I'm thinking 80ppg is the bottom.
 
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Kybluedude

Heisman
Nov 19, 2005
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bucsrule8872 said:
I think Butler will start at the 1 and he will try different combos on the wings. Kriisa and Robinson might start one game and then Kriisa and Brea the next, then Oweh and Robinson the next. Even Chandler might get a start at some point.

Last year, Pope brought his top two scorers off the bench most games (Robinson, Traore), so starting isn’t as big of a deal as some might think. I doubt a starting five will be settled on before the end of January, if then.
Click to expand...
For some reason I got a twitch reading this
 
J

Jmeeks54thebest

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Son_Of_Saul said:
Here's my view on the points per game distribution. I'd like to see yours as well.

Robinson: 12ppg
Carr: 12ppg
Williams: 10ppg
Kriisa: 10ppg
Brea: 10ppg
Oweh: 8ppg
Garrison: 8ppg
Butler: 6ppg
Chandler: 4ppg
Almonor: 4ppg
Rest of the team: 3ppg
Click to expand...
I wouldn’t change much. I think I’d take Garrison down to 4-5 ppg and distribute those points between Brea and Robinson. So in this scenario I’d have Brea at 12 ppg and Robinson at 14 ppg.

Again, a minor change. I also agree that Garrison, Oweh, and Chandler see a jump next year. I’d also add Perry to that list as I think he gets close to 8-10ppg next year after not getting much time this year.
 
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tug15

Senior
Apr 15, 2007
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Son_Of_Saul said:
Here's my view on the points per game distribution. I'd like to see yours as well.

Robinson: 12ppg
Carr: 12ppg
Williams: 10ppg
Kriisa: 10ppg
Brea: 10ppg
Oweh: 8ppg
Garrison: 8ppg
Butler: 6ppg
Chandler: 4ppg
Almonor: 4ppg
Rest of the team: 3ppg
Click to expand...
I think most of the BBN is underestimating the talent level, maturity and contribution Chandler and Perry will bring to this team. Based on the videos I have seen I believe Chandler is the most talented player on this team. Great hops, quickness and superb shooter who can score from anywhere on the floor. Perry is a 6 year starter(yes he started on the varsity as a 7th grader) at Lyons Co where his father was head coach. Consequently, his BB IQ , court awareness and instincts far exceed those of your typical freshman. I watched on you tube video virtually every game he played last year as well as watching two of his games in person.. When the pressure is on he has the ability to kick it into another gear and take over the game. He outscored and outplayed Reed Sheppard when they squared off in a 22-23 high school game. In my opinion there isn't a split RCH difference between his talent and Reed's. I expect both Chandler and Perry to average 8-9 points per game this year. Garrison is also going to surprise a lot of folks.
 
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chroix

chroix

Heisman
Jul 22, 2013
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Son_Of_Saul said:
The most difficult player for me to analyze is Chandler. I think he and Garrison have the most NBA potential on this roster. Does Chandler jump right in and surprise BBN in his first year? Will he need a season of conditioning after being on a foreign mission for two years?

He's the kind of player that I could see surprising us all. I do think he becomes our best scorer in year #2, regardless of what he does this season.
Click to expand...

Totally agree. Most intriguing player we landed in my book. He could be rusty and not contribute much. Or he could be Reed 2.0. Can’t wait to see how he does.
 
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Killswitch24

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Mark it down the player that everyone is sleeping on is Noah. There’s no way this kid sits on the bench all season. He’s a bull who can score from anywhere on the floor and has no fear. What he lacks in other areas will be covered up by this kind of system where the offense scores quickly. He was highly underrated coming out of high school because of where he played. The fact that Paris wanted him, who’s an excellent scout of talent, tells me a lot too. I see Noah coming in and sometime after the first month there are guys losing minutes. He’ll be on the floor a lot.
 
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zoid1

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ukfan041 said:
My question is does he start both Kriisa and Butler? Initially, I thought I’d be Brea starting in the backcourt with Butler, but there is something about Kriisa where I think he may start too
Click to expand...

I'm sure the frontcourt or PF/C is set with Carr and Williams with Almoror and Garrison coming of the bench. Butler will start PG with Krissa backing him up and Perry in certain situations. The SG/SF will be a little tricky to predict who starts because we have so many options. I'm not so sure Pope will start Krissa at SG and Jaxson at SF to start the year with Oweh backing up SG and Brea SF sliding Krissa over to PG. I just think Pope talks so much about Krissa he gets the start at SG and Jaxson who knows the SEC and Pope's system starts SF. However I think Brea and Oweh will start games at SG and Brea might get a few starts at SF. Pope will interchange the 1 thru 3 positions with Butler, Kriisa, Chandler, Oweh, Brea and Jaxson with sprinkles of Noah and Perry thrown in.
 
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Son_Of_Saul

Son_Of_Saul

Heisman
Dec 7, 2007
44,487
94,901
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Killswitch24 said:
Saul you’ve got Robinson way too low. I’m thinking 16-18 ppg. He’s gonna have a green light like never before and they’re gonna feeD him. We’re gonna shoot early and often. I see no way he’s at 12 ppg. At least 15. I also think Garrison will average more than 8 but it’s possible.

-**edit, wow suprised to see so many agree with Saul on Jaxson. I don’t see it. We’ll mark the thread and come back another day for my sht sandwich I guess.
Click to expand...
While I think Robinson is capable of 16/game, I just don't see it with all of our depth. Additionally, Pope likes to use 8 or 9 guys regularly, so I just don't see Robinson taking enough shots per game to become a guy who scores 16 to 18/game.

He certainly has the ability, but we're just too deep. I think it would take some huge disappointments next season (Chandler, Oweh, Brea) on the wing in order for UK to have to depend on Robinson like that.
 
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Phil_The_Music2

Phil_The_Music2

Heisman
Nov 29, 2010
3,064
12,496
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Son_Of_Saul said:
While I think Robinson is capable of 16/game, I just don't see it with all of our depth. Additionally, Pope likes to use 8 or 9 guys regularly, so I just don't see Robinson taking enough shots per game to become a guy who scores 16 to 18/game.

He certainly has the ability, but we're just too deep. I think it would take some huge disappointments next season (Chandler, Oweh, Brea) on the wing in order for UK to have to depend on Robinson like that.
Click to expand...
He also seems to step up for big games. So I could see him going for 25 against a top opponent one night and differing to team mates and going for 8 the next.
 
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Son_Of_Saul

Son_Of_Saul

Heisman
Dec 7, 2007
44,487
94,901
113
Killswitch24 said:
Mark it down the player that everyone is sleeping on is Noah. There’s no way this kid sits on the bench all season. He’s a bull who can score from anywhere on the floor and has no fear. What he lacks in other areas will be covered up by this kind of system where the offense scores quickly. He was highly underrated coming out of high school because of where he played. The fact that Paris wanted him, who’s an excellent scout of talent, tells me a lot too. I see Noah coming in and sometime after the first month there are guys losing minutes. He’ll be on the floor a lot.
Click to expand...
I think Noah will take a huge step in his second year. Physicality is a huge component of the game, and I think the upperclassmen will overwhelm him in year #1.

His scoring skillset is fascinating. I think he could be the type of player who gives us 8 to 10/game as a sophomore, and ends up giving us around 12/game during his junior and senior seasons, depending on the type of personnel Pope brings in around him.
 
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UK67KU59

UK67KU59

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Apr 9, 2020
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I think around 70 possessions per game and 1.16 points per possession, equating to about 81.12 ppg.

PlayerPTSMPG
Jaxson Robinson13.67
28​
Koby Brea12.11
20​
Andrew Carr11.70
28​
Kerr Kriisa7.81
20​
Lamont Butler7.56
28​
Otega Oweh7.30
16​
Brandon Garrison6.44
16​
Amari Williams6.29
20​
Collin Chandler4.40
8​
Ansley Almonor3.84
16​
 
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D

docholiday51

Heisman
Oct 19, 2001
22,011
26,718
0
I think the team will put up 80+ per game, as to who does what it is anyone's guess. Robinson is the early favorite to be the leading scorer. Brea and Carr seem likely to be next in line as scorers ,someone we don't expect will come out of the woodwork and put up double digit production. I believe we will have at least 5 double digit scorers.
 
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EdgeHD

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May 17, 2020
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Son_Of_Saul said:
Here's my view on the points per game distribution. I'd like to see yours as well.

Robinson: 12ppg
Carr: 12ppg
Williams: 10ppg
Kriisa: 10ppg
Brea: 10ppg
Oweh: 8ppg
Garrison: 8ppg
Butler: 6ppg
Chandler: 4ppg
Almonor: 4ppg
Rest of the team: 3ppg
Click to expand...

How can anyone come close to knowing this? New roster, haven't played together before. Most of these players have not even played in this system before, and we have no idea how playing time will be split up. I will be interested to see.
 
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