Previewing Wisconsin

[CappyNU]

Coach: Greg Gard, in his 11th season since taking over from Bo Ryan after the 2014-15 season. Fun fact – Gard punched above his weight in his first two seasons (i.e. with Bo’s recruits), taking 7 and 8-seed teams to the Sweet 16. Since then, he has exceeded seed expectations just once out of 5 years while missing the tournament entirely in two others, something Wisconsin had not done since the 1997-98 season under Dick Bennett.

What’s new – Coaching Style: Stop me if you’ve heard this one before – a Wisconsin sports team that had an identity built over decades has now drastically changed how they play. This year’s Badger team plays…fast? Gard started experimenting with this last year, as they had their fastest tempo in the Kenpom era, which was still middle of D1. This year, the brakes are fully off, as they are the 4th-fastest team in the Big 10 and have the 3rd-fastest offensive possession length, much of it driven by a 57% increase in the amount of possessions in transition. It will be interesting to see how it goes throughout the season, but the two top-25 defenses they’ve played so far shut them down. Unfortunately, we are…not one of those defenses.

The Badgers are also taking more than half their shots from 3, good enough for 12th in the country, also a high in the Kenpom era. Unfortunately for them, they’ve made 36% against the four weak teams they played, and only 29% against the three decent-to-good teams they’ve faced. Offensively, drives to the rim and post-up plays are less frequent than last year; instead, their bigs look to pass out of the post for a 3-pointer much more often. They also are crashing the glass a lot more, which is…unfortunate for us.

What’s new – Player edition: Of the 13 scholarships and 4 walk-ons on the Badgers’ roster last year, 6 of them graduated – John Tonje - who torched us twice, Steven Crowl, Max Klesmit, Kamari McGee, Carter Gilmore - who had a career game against us last year, and Markus Ilver, while 4 players transferred and 1 walk-on got the boot with the new 15-man limit. They have been replaced by 5 transfers and 4 freshmen this year. Well, 4 transfers, actually – one of them was kicked off the team before the season began.

Who’s back: Two starters and one rotation player return from last year’s team – G John Blackwell and C Nolan Winter, along with walk-on G Jack Janicki. Two sophomores and Gard’s son also return, stapled to the bench.

 

[CappyNU]

Starters:

#2, 6’3” PG Nick Boyd – The 5th year player, at his 3rd school, has traversed the country as he’s moved up from mid-major at FAU to San Diego St and now to P2 Wisconsin. Last year Nick started alongside old friend Jared Coleman-Jones at SDSU, and was a ball-dominant player who took the most shots on the team while also dishing out the most assists and drawing the most fouls. This year, he’s doing the same thing, but on steroids. He’s taken 35% of the team’s shots when he’s on the floor, with a 25% assist rate while drawing 5.7 fouls/40 minutes. He’s an average 3-point shooter, but has significantly improved his midrange and layup accuracy. He’s the player most likely to finish in transition or driving to the rim, with 50% of his possessions resulting in shots at the rim or getting fouled. Defensively, he has a high steal rate like many of the Badger guards.

#25, 6’4” Wing G John Blackwell – As mentioned, one of the two returning starters for the Badgers. Last year, we contained him very well in both games. This year, if the ball isn’t in Boyd’s hands, it’s likely in Blackwell’s. He’s shifted his game a bit, like the rest of the team has, and is driving to the rim less while shooting 3s more. For Blackwell, this is a good thing, because he’s hit 40% of his 3s so far while only 39% of his 2s. In the last three games though, against top-100 teams, he’s only shot 31% from 2 and 26% from 3. He also draws a TON of fouls, getting to the line on 1/3 of his possessions, which is insane. He’s currently on pace to double the number of FTs he shoots compared to last year, and he’s an 82% FT shooter. Last game in their loss to TCU, he scored 30 of their 63 points, though he needed 22 shots and 12 FTs to get there. Defensively, he's averaged 2.3 steals in the last three games and is an excellent rebounder for a guard.

#7, 6’6” CG Andrew Rohde – A transfer from by way of St. Thomas and then Virginia, Rohde spent his career as a point guard, but has transitioned into a combo guard this year who is seeing a lot less of the ball due to Boyd and Blackwell. As a result, he functions much more as a perimeter player, and is not having a lot of success scoring, shooting just 29% from 3 as the clear 5th-option in the starting lineup. He is most successful when driving to the rim or getting out in transition, but he just doesn’t have that many opportunities to do either. I suppose that’s the risk when you bring a bunch of ball-dominant players into the same team when there’s only one ball. One area where he has had more success than either Boyd or Blackwell is in running PnR, where he’s much more efficient than the other two players. Defensively, has the best hands on the team, and has gotten at least one steal in every game, but is somewhat allergic to rebounds.

#22, 6’10” PF Austin Rapp – Hailing from Melbourne down undah, Rapp transferred after one year at Portland, to essentially fill the hole left by Crowl’s graduation. Was one of the best defensive rebounders and shot blockers in the West Coast Conference last year, and is an excellent free throw shooter. The shot blocking skill remains, though his rebounding has dropped a bit. Despite being the same size as Crowl, he plays a very different style. Where Crowl spent much more time posting up inside or looking for a cutter to pass to, Rapp is largely a perimeter player, taking twice as many 3s as 2s, looking to pick and pop or catch-and-shoot a 3. He has been very hot or cold, scoring 20 points against Providence on 5-11 3-point shooting, but also scored a combined 4 points against BYU and TCU while going 0-8 from deep and 1-13 overall. Also unlike Crowl, he is active in the transition game, though is laughably inefficient. He’s also prone to turning the ball over, doing it 2.3 times per game in the last 3. We shut down Crowl in both games last year, so hopefully we can do the same with Rapp tonight.

#31, 7’0” C Nolan Winter – The other returning starter from last year, Winter had 10 points shooting 2-4 from 3, 5 boards, 1 assist and 2 turnovers in his first win against us last year, and then lived at the line, going 9-10 as part of an 18 point, 6 rebound, 2 assist, 2 steal and 2 turnover effort in his win against us in the Big Ten Tourney. While last year, Winter made 36% of his 3s, so far this year he is at an awful 16%, and 0 for his last 11. Winter has a variety of offensive play types – he’s a capable passer, can post up or roll off a screen efficiently, gets a lot of offensive rebounds and scores on the putback (averages 3.3 offensive boards per game, very worrisome given our issues!!), and can also be effective in transition. He does try to run pick and pop plays to get 3-point shots, but as mentioned, has been awful this year. Defensively, he’s averaging 6.9 defensive rebounds per game to go with 1.4 blocks and 0.9 steals. Interestingly, TCU managed to shut him down last game despite their tallest player being 6’8”, though to be fair, that player does outweigh Winter by 10 pounds. Winter only took 3 shots, making none of them, and scored 3 points, though he had 10 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 blocks and 1 steal before fouling out.

 

[CappyNU]

Reserves:

#5, 6’5” CG Jack Janicki – A returning reserve and walk-on, Janicki averaged 12 minutes/game last year, but was just kind of…there. Last year, when he did play, he was much more of a passer, whether it was PnR or driving and kicking out, but this year he’s either leading the transition play or waiting for a pass at the 3-point line. Despite starting out the year 2-12 from 3 against the weak teams, he’s gone 4-6 in the last 3 games, so we’ll need to watch out for that. Prone to turnovers and foul trouble, his playing time will likely be dependent on how the game is going.

#0, 6’5” CG Braeden Carrington – On his 3rd school and 2nd stint in the Big 10, the former Gopher of two seasons arrived at Wisconsin by way of Tulsa last year. Gard must have seen something last year during conference play, because up until that point, Carrington was a career 27% shooter from 3. Since January 7th 2025, he’s shooting 45% from 3(!). He’s a major threat to come off the bench and give instant offense, either pulling up for 3 in transition, shooting off the dribble, or in catch-and-shoot situations. When he’s in the game, we will need to clamp down tightly on him. Defensively, he is at best, indifferent, so we’ll need to take advantage of that matchup too.

#32, 6’10” PF Aleksas Bieliauskas – A freshman hailing from Kaunas, Lithuania, which produced both Arvydas Sabonis and Zydrunas Ilgauskas as well as the anarchist Emma Goldman, Bieliauskas has been eased into the lineup slowly. Like many younger big men, his defense is ahead of his offense. Currently averaging just 3.1 points per game, he’s also grabbing 4.3 rebounds and 0.7 blocks in only 13 minutes per game. He usually comes in to spell either Winter or Rapp for the first substitutions of each half, but is significantly less involved in the offense than either of those players. Like many others on the team, he takes about half of his shots from 3, though is just 2-10 so far on the season, and both makes came in the same game. Again, will likely be focusing on defense when he’s in the game.

#23, 7’0” C Will Garlock – Another freshman, interestingly has more assists than points scored so far this year (14 to 6). Seems clear that he’s not ready yet for prime time, as he’s only averaged 6 minutes per game over the last 3. He is not a three-point shooter.

#13, 6’6” SF Hayden Jones – Anotha from down undah, but the Kiwi version. The third and final freshman who sees the court, Jones is getting even less playing time than Garlock and didn’t play against TCU. Also hasn’t taken any three-pointers yet this season.



Collins has shown he can win at the Kohl Center, having done it 4 times in 9 attempts, most recently in 2023 during Nick Martinelli’s freshman year when we won 54-52. Fun fact – since Collins was hired, he is tied for the most wins at the Kohl Center with Matt Painter and Brad Underwood. Indiana is 0 for 10 in the same time span – every other “legacy” Big Ten team has won at least once (even Minnesota!).



Let’s get win #5 tonight, go ‘Cats!

 

[CoralSpringsCat]

Reserves:

#5, 6’5” CG Jack Janicki – A returning reserve and walk-on, Janicki averaged 12 minutes/game last year, but was just kind of…there. Last year, when he did play, he was much more of a passer, whether it was PnR or driving and kicking out, but this year he’s either leading the transition play or waiting for a pass at the 3-point line. Despite starting out the year 2-12 from 3 against the weak teams, he’s gone 4-6 in the last 3 games, so we’ll need to watch out for that. Prone to turnovers and foul trouble, his playing time will likely be dependent on how the game is going.

#0, 6’5” CG Braeden Carrington – On his 3rd school and 2nd stint in the Big 10, the former Gopher of two seasons arrived at Wisconsin by way of Tulsa last year. Gard must have seen something last year during conference play, because up until that point, Carrington was a career 27% shooter from 3. Since January 7th 2025, he’s shooting 45% from 3(!). He’s a major threat to come off the bench and give instant offense, either pulling up for 3 in transition, shooting off the dribble, or in catch-and-shoot situations. When he’s in the game, we will need to clamp down tightly on him. Defensively, he is at best, indifferent, so we’ll need to take advantage of that matchup too.

#32, 6’10” PF Aleksas Bieliauskas – A freshman hailing from Kaunas, Lithuania, which produced both Arvydas Sabonis and Zydrunas Ilgauskas as well as the anarchist Emma Goldman, Bieliauskas has been eased into the lineup slowly. Like many younger big men, his defense is ahead of his offense. Currently averaging just 3.1 points per game, he’s also grabbing 4.3 rebounds and 0.7 blocks in only 13 minutes per game. He usually comes in to spell either Winter or Rapp for the first substitutions of each half, but is significantly less involved in the offense than either of those players. Like many others on the team, he takes about half of his shots from 3, though is just 2-10 so far on the season, and both makes came in the same game. Again, will likely be focusing on defense when he’s in the game.

#23, 7’0” C Will Garlock – Another freshman, interestingly has more assists than points scored so far this year (14 to 6). Seems clear that he’s not ready yet for prime time, as he’s only averaged 6 minutes per game over the last 3. He is not a three-point shooter.

#13, 6’6” SF Hayden Jones – Anotha from down undah, but the Kiwi version. The third and final freshman who sees the court, Jones is getting even less playing time than Garlock and didn’t play against TCU. Also hasn’t taken any three-pointers yet this season.



Collins has shown he can win at the Kohl Center, having done it 4 times in 9 attempts, most recently in 2023 during Nick Martinelli’s freshman year when we won 54-52. Fun fact – since Collins was hired, he is tied for the most wins at the Kohl Center with Matt Painter and Brad Underwood. Indiana is 0 for 10 in the same time span – every other “legacy” Big Ten team has won at least once (even Minnesota!).



Let’s get win #5 tonight, go ‘Cats!

Outstanding work. Shouldn’t these previews be premium content?

 

[macarthur31]

Love the writeups, Cappy! This is gonna be a fascinating matchup, as Wisconsin has lost only to kp50 or better teams in BYU and TCU - and in those games were down double digits after 30 minutes, but handled kp72 Providence. In those "Tier A+B" games, Bucky's 3FG accuracy seemed to be a key factor as they chuck it from deep so much. Hoping that the 'Cats can keep up their terrific 3FG defense - only 28.1% 3FG allowed!

 

[CoralSpringsCat]

Starters:

#2, 6’3” PG Nick Boyd – The 5th year player, at his 3rd school, has traversed the country as he’s moved up from mid-major at FAU to San Diego St and now to P2 Wisconsin. Last year Nick started alongside old friend Jared Coleman-Jones at SDSU, and was a ball-dominant player who took the most shots on the team while also dishing out the most assists and drawing the most fouls. This year, he’s doing the same thing, but on steroids. He’s taken 35% of the team’s shots when he’s on the floor, with a 25% assist rate while drawing 5.7 fouls/40 minutes. He’s an average 3-point shooter, but has significantly improved his midrange and layup accuracy. He’s the player most likely to finish in transition or driving to the rim, with 50% of his possessions resulting in shots at the rim or getting fouled. Defensively, he has a high steal rate like many of the Badger guards.

#25, 6’4” Wing G John Blackwell – As mentioned, one of the two returning starters for the Badgers. Last year, we contained him very well in both games. This year, if the ball isn’t in Boyd’s hands, it’s likely in Blackwell’s. He’s shifted his game a bit, like the rest of the team has, and is driving to the rim less while shooting 3s more. For Blackwell, this is a good thing, because he’s hit 40% of his 3s so far while only 39% of his 2s. In the last three games though, against top-100 teams, he’s only shot 31% from 2 and 26% from 3. He also draws a TON of fouls, getting to the line on 1/3 of his possessions, which is insane. He’s currently on pace to double the number of FTs he shoots compared to last year, and he’s an 82% FT shooter. Last game in their loss to TCU, he scored 30 of their 63 points, though he needed 22 shots and 12 FTs to get there. Defensively, he's averaged 2.3 steals in the last three games and is an excellent rebounder for a guard.

#7, 6’6” CG Andrew Rohde – A transfer from by way of St. Thomas and then Virginia, Rohde spent his career as a point guard, but has transitioned into a combo guard this year who is seeing a lot less of the ball due to Boyd and Blackwell. As a result, he functions much more as a perimeter player, and is not having a lot of success scoring, shooting just 29% from 3 as the clear 5th-option in the starting lineup. He is most successful when driving to the rim or getting out in transition, but he just doesn’t have that many opportunities to do either. I suppose that’s the risk when you bring a bunch of ball-dominant players into the same team when there’s only one ball. One area where he has had more success than either Boyd or Blackwell is in running PnR, where he’s much more efficient than the other two players. Defensively, has the best hands on the team, and has gotten at least one steal in every game, but is somewhat allergic to rebounds.

#22, 6’10” PF Austin Rapp – Hailing from Melbourne down undah, Rapp transferred after one year at Portland, to essentially fill the hole left by Crowl’s graduation. Was one of the best defensive rebounders and shot blockers in the West Coast Conference last year, and is an excellent free throw shooter. The shot blocking skill remains, though his rebounding has dropped a bit. Despite being the same size as Crowl, he plays a very different style. Where Crowl spent much more time posting up inside or looking for a cutter to pass to, Rapp is largely a perimeter player, taking twice as many 3s as 2s, looking to pick and pop or catch-and-shoot a 3. He has been very hot or cold, scoring 20 points against Providence on 5-11 3-point shooting, but also scored a combined 4 points against BYU and TCU while going 0-8 from deep and 1-13 overall. Also unlike Crowl, he is active in the transition game, though is laughably inefficient. He’s also prone to turning the ball over, doing it 2.3 times per game in the last 3. We shut down Crowl in both games last year, so hopefully we can do the same with Rapp tonight.

#31, 7’0” C Nolan Winter – The other returning starter from last year, Winter had 10 points shooting 2-4 from 3, 5 boards, 1 assist and 2 turnovers in his first win against us last year, and then lived at the line, going 9-10 as part of an 18 point, 6 rebound, 2 assist, 2 steal and 2 turnover effort in his win against us in the Big Ten Tourney. While last year, Winter made 36% of his 3s, so far this year he is at an awful 16%, and 0 for his last 11. Winter has a variety of offensive play types – he’s a capable passer, can post up or roll off a screen efficiently, gets a lot of offensive rebounds and scores on the putback (averages 3.3 offensive boards per game, very worrisome given our issues!!), and can also be effective in transition. He does try to run pick and pop plays to get 3-point shots, but as mentioned, has been awful this year. Defensively, he’s averaging 6.9 defensive rebounds per game to go with 1.4 blocks and 0.9 steals. Interestingly, TCU managed to shut him down last game despite their tallest player being 6’8”, though to be fair, that player does outweigh Winter by 10 pounds. Winter only took 3 shots, making none of them, and scored 3 points, though he had 10 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 blocks and 1 steal before fouling out.

Is this CapGPT?

 

[Hungry Jack]

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