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Prob of bottom team winning BTT

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ricko6543211

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Nov 15, 2006
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I forget who I was discussing this with. But, for what it’s worth, the cumulative P of seeds 8-14 winning the tourney before it started implied by betting odds was about 7%. So roughly 12/1. Take some big out of that, you get about 15/1. Which I think is about fair. I agreed that selling 5/1 to Mike was a good deal, but I would have happily bought 50/1. 15 seems roughly the right number.

Nebraska maybe?? Would never have guessed them a week ago. 2 down, 3 to go haha. After that crazy comeback against IA to close the season.
 
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mikewebb68

Senior
Oct 24, 2009
9,811
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ricko654321 said:
I forget who I was discussing this with. But, for what it’s worth, the cumulative P of seeds 8-14 winning the tourney before it started implied by betting odds was about 7%. So roughly 12/1. Take some big out of that, you get about 15/1. Which I think is about fair. I agreed that selling 5/1 to Mike was a good deal, but I would have happily bought 50/1. 15 seems roughly the right number.

Nebraska maybe?? Would never have guessed them a week ago. 2 down, 3 to go haha. After that crazy comeback against IA to close the season.
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Nebby has got to be gassed now. Still think PSU has an excellent shot.
 
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NURoseBowl

Junior
Jun 16, 2009
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mikewebb68 said:
Nebby has got to be gassed now. Still think PSU has an excellent shot.
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Interesting games so far. More often than not, this tournament offers great theater, even when our guys get knocked out. I'd still prefer the 'Cats advancing deep into an otherwise boring tournament, though. :rolleyes:
 
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ricko6543211

Junior
Nov 15, 2006
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mikewebb68 said:
Oops.
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Haha. Yeah. For the purposes of that seeding thing, I think it’s down to Nebraska and OSU? Prob have MTM losses on a 15/1 bet. I agree with you that Nebby has gotta be gassed. I’m kind of cheering for them though. Would be a fun story.

And while I have no idea what was going on with Wesson and why he’s back in, I think I’d still rather OSU claim the 8th B1G spot in the tourney than Archie Miller and Indiana.
 
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ricko6543211

Junior
Nov 15, 2006
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Purple Pile Driver said:
Top ranked teams left with exception of Nebby. See their run ending tomorrow and schedule catches up with them playing 3 days in a row. 50-1 would be a loss.
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Ha. Dude. Don’t think you gamble much. Was trying to discuss ex ante, you are talking ex post. Even if true odds are 15/1, still only expect to win it 6% of the time. Agree though that your side looks the most likely at the moment!
 
Purple Pile Driver

Purple Pile Driver

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ricko654321 said:
Ha. Dude. Don’t think you gamble much. Was trying to discuss ex ante, you are talking ex post. Even if true odds are 15/1, still only expect to win it 6% of the time. Agree though that your side looks the most likely at the moment!
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Unpopular opinion- the bottom teams in the big ten aren’t very good. Might be stronger than most other conferences but hardly something to get excited upon, KenPom or not.
 
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Jonny2TheP

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Dec 11, 2007
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Purple Pile Driver said:
Unpopular opinion- the bottom teams in the big ten aren’t very good. Might be stronger than most other conferences but hardly something to get excited upon, KenPom or not.
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I don't think there are many truly terrible teams in the Power 5 conferences this year. Teams that aren't good? Sure. But very few teams that are just awful and not competitive. IMO, what we have seen over the last 5-10 years is that the difference between the teams "ranked" 30-100 in the country isn't that significant. Yes, your 30th team will beat your 100th team more times than not, but that 100th team has enough talent on the roster to win those games more than they could in the past. To me, there are just more good basketball players to go around than there used to be.

There is still a big difference though between your top 5-10 teams and the rest. Just using last night as an example, look how incredible of a player Zion Williamson is. Barrett is a fantastic player as well. The skill on those top teams is on another level. Doesn't mean they can't throw in a stinker and lose in the tournament (i.e. Virginia last year) though.
 
Purple Pile Driver

Purple Pile Driver

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Jonny2TheP said:
I don't think there are many truly terrible teams in the Power 5 conferences this year. Teams that aren't good? Sure. But very few teams that are just awful and not competitive. IMO, what we have seen over the last 5-10 years is that the difference between the teams "ranked" 30-100 in the country isn't that significant. Yes, your 30th team will beat your 100th team more times than not, but that 100th team has enough talent on the roster to win those games more than they could in the past. To me, there are just more good basketball players to go around than there used to be.

There is still a big difference though between your top 5-10 teams and the rest. Just using last night as an example, look how incredible of a player Zion Williamson is. Barrett is a fantastic player as well. The skill on those top teams is on another level. Doesn't mean they can't throw in a stinker and lose in the tournament (i.e. Virginia last year) though.
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Which is a better conference this year the Big Ten or the ACC?
 
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Jonny2TheP

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Dec 11, 2007
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Purple Pile Driver said:
Which is a better conference this year the Big Ten or the ACC?
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To me, it's the ACC. You could absolutely argue that the best three teams in the country are in that conference (Duke, Virginia, and UNC). I think the bottom of the Big Ten is stronger than the ACC, but they clearly are stronger at the top and probably have more "good" teams. That makes up for Wake Forest, Notre Dame, and Pitt being lousy for my money.
 
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pawildcat_rivals209725

Senior
Sep 15, 2006
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Jonny2TheP said:
To me, it's the ACC. You could absolutely argue that the best three teams in the country are in that conference (Duke, Virginia, and UNC). I think the bottom of the Big Ten is stronger than the ACC, but they clearly are stronger at the top and probably have more "good" teams. That makes up for Wake Forest, Notre Dame, and Pitt being lousy for my money.
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Well, it was early in the season but Michigan blew out UNC in the challenge. The B1G was hurt this year by injuries in the case of Michigan State, Indiana and Nebraska. What Izzo did with MSU while two key players were missing was pretty amazing. Injuries could certainly be a factor in the upcoming tournament. Duke is loaded with five-stars, but they obviously were not the same team when Zion was out. Wesson's suspension and the subsequent losing streak will drop Ohio State's seeding. Matthews needs to come back at something close to 100 percent for Michigan to have a decent shot. I think some of the teams were worn down with the 20-game schedule in a league where you basically couldn't take a night off.

I don't think I'd say the ACC has more "good" teams. I agree their top three probably give them a better shot at the championship, but to me the B1G overall was a better league this year. The problem is, nobody remembers much except who wins the title. The B1G has reached numerous final fours and title games since 2000, but will always get tagged as a secondary league until they can break through. For all the ACC talk, how many teams not named Duke or UNC have won the title for them recently?
 
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Jonny2TheP

Junior
Dec 11, 2007
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Fitzphile said:
Vanderbilt?

9-23, 0-19 in the SEC.

But they did beat Arizona State and U$C from the Pac-12.
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Yeah, that's pretty bad. No way to argue that. They did take Tennessee to OT one of those games though so there is at least some talent there.
 
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Jonny2TheP

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Dec 11, 2007
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pawildcat said:
Well, it was early in the season but Michigan blew out UNC in the challenge.
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I'm not much of a Roy Williams fan, but the job he has done this year is phenomenal. If you watched UNC the first 30-45 days of this season, they were pretty lousy. The talent was obviously there, but they were not a good basketball team. They put it together mid-year and are now one of the best teams in the country. Michigan could beat them on the right day, but if those two teams played now, I think it would be quite a different story.
 
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Catreporter

Senior
Sep 4, 2007
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Vandy had a key injury in mid-December but they were still rolling some four and five star talent onto the floor so their record was a little baffling.
 
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