PSU leading the tiebreaker for Conference Championship game??
- Thread starter Meat Lab
- Start date
Assuming the possibility doesn't all come crashing down on Saturday, PSU fans' "three-way tie" rooting interests (and, of course, much else will have to transpire to set up that 3-way tie):
Would have to see many (most) of these outcomes:
Iowa to beat Rutgers and Nebraska
Northwestern to beat Wisconsin and Purdue
Indiana to beat Purdue
Illinois to beat Indiana
Maryland to beat Nebraska
Most of those games (the ones in italics) happen this week - so probably will have a pretty clear picture either Yeah or Nay by Saturday night.
Would have to see many (most) of these outcomes:
Iowa to beat Rutgers and Nebraska
Northwestern to beat Wisconsin and Purdue
Indiana to beat Purdue
Illinois to beat Indiana
Maryland to beat Nebraska
Most of those games (the ones in italics) happen this week - so probably will have a pretty clear picture either Yeah or Nay by Saturday night.
Correct me if I am wrong….
I did not think that this matters all that much as I do not believe that under the current structure the CFP has to select a conference champion over a non-conf champ. There would be little to gain by any B10 east champ beating any west team
Perhaps in 2024 CFP the conference champions have more status in the 12 team slotting.
I did not think that this matters all that much as I do not believe that under the current structure the CFP has to select a conference champion over a non-conf champ. There would be little to gain by any B10 east champ beating any west team
Perhaps in 2024 CFP the conference champions have more status in the 12 team slotting.
You are correct; the CFP is not obligated to select a conference champion. However, assuming that everything else goes to form, PSU's only chance to make the CFP is by winning the Big Ten championship. That aside, winning the championship is an accomplishment in itself.
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I have to think that if PSU were to beat Michigan and win out, then they’d be in the CFP, assuming Michigan beat OSU.
OSU would lose last and that usually incurs a rankings penalty. PSU would stay just ahead in Michigan having just beaten them.
The extra conference title game win would also be a plus no matter who the opponent.
If, if, if…
OSU would lose last and that usually incurs a rankings penalty. PSU would stay just ahead in Michigan having just beaten them.
The extra conference title game win would also be a plus no matter who the opponent.
If, if, if…
I've seen that movie before. I believe the legendary "eye test" was created soon thereafter.
The only thing PSU can control is what it does on the field. Get it done and the chips will fall where they may. Don't and there is no argument to be made.
The CFP committee has always shown a strong preference for conference winners - especially teams that win a conference championship game - over other teams with the same number of losses. If multiple teams in the Big Ten have only 1 loss, only the one who is conference champion would be reasonably assured of getting into the CFP.
As if they’ve ever not selected a conference champeen for the playoff. Win and you’re in.
Load the wagon.
28/36 CFP entrants were Confernce winners. So, yeah, winning helps. But, the last two rounds have included 2 Conf Winners and 2 Non Con Winning teams.
The main criteria has been least amount of losses. That overrides everything else and no Power 5 team has made it in over a team with fewer losses.
When comparing teams with the same number of losses, conference championships is a large factor.
Edit: Also in 2021, there were 3 conference champions in the playoffs and only 1 non-conference champion (Georgia that year).
just saw this on ESPN site. Interactive Playoff predictor. PSU at 21%.
Check it out
https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/cfbplayoffpredictor/cfb-playoff-predictor
Check it out
https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/cfbplayoffpredictor/cfb-playoff-predictor
A little surprised Michy is only at 44%. They are definitely predicting a loss for Michy sometime between now and CFP.
I would love to come back to this if PSU beats Michy on Sat - the number would skyrocket.
And rightly so, they usually have an extra win on their resume, and usually against a tough opponent. The tiebreaker is essential because it default places you above OSU and Michigan in the CFP rankings after the Big10 champ game
Looking through the other top10 teams schedules, it looks extremely unlikely Penn State would be top4 without winning the BigTen.
-SEC champ will be in (Georgia or Alabama)
-ACC champ, likely FSU has an easy road
-PAC12 champ, likely Washington or Oregon
-BIG12 champ could have two losses, if Oklahoma beats Texas again. If Texas wins, they're in over 11-1 PSU
And one seat for Big10 champ, who would almost definitely bump out any other 1-loss champ. Unless it's Penn State/Texas and Nixon's ghost gets a vote.
CFP isn't putting a non-champ Penn State ahead of any of those conference champions, and probably behind some runner ups if they have 1 loss. Yes, even with an 11-1 record with only loss being at OSU by one score.
I thought Georgia's number was low, then I remembered they'll probably have to beat Alabama.
I'd pump the brakes on the SEC champ being an automatic entrant. It's conceivable that the SEC champ could be left out this year. Georgia still had Ole Miss and Tennessee. Alabama will have the SECCG. An undefeated FSU and UW would be in. An 11-1 Texas is in.
That would leave one spot open. It's not out of the realm of possibility that the SEC champ gets left out as a final middle finger from the committee.
13-0 FSU
13-0 Washington
13-0 Ohio State
12-1 Texas
With Alabama 12-1 defeating Georgia in the SEC championship? Ok, I agree that might be about the only extreme scenario where an SEC doesn't make it. But that's about it in terms of what might occur. A 1 loss SEC champ going in over a 1 loss team from any other conference in virtually any other scenario.
Georgia would have to lose both of those games, and beat Alabama. Or Alabama would have to lose again, and beat Georgia. A 12-1 SEC champ is in over 11-1 Penn State.
A lot can still happen, but you basically need TWO 2-loss conf champions for 11-1 Penn State to get in, and even then need some help. If FSU is upset by Louisville in their CCG, Louisville will pass us. FSU might stay ahead. If Michigan wins the tiebreaker, an 11-1 OSU could stay ahead of us. Washington at 12-1 losing in their CCG would probably stay ahead of us.
Beat Michigan, go Illinois/Iowa/NW.
I’m rooting for Alabama to win because she committee would either need to put in Texas or admit they’re totally full of ****.
For a 1 loss PSU non Big Ten champion to get in, there would need to be at least 2 P5 champs with at least 2 losses. And then PSU would need to be chosen over any other 1 loss non champs (though it’s not tough to see that potentially happen). How about this thought…
PSU wins out
UM beats tOSU but Buckeyes win the three way tiebreaker
Iowa beats tOSU in the CCG
PSU would be higher than tOSU in that scenario (yeah head to head but both of tOSU’s losses would be to teams PSU beat and fewest losses is always key). If one other conference champ has 2 losses (say Texas loses again) then we might very well get in then.
PSU wins out
UM beats tOSU but Buckeyes win the three way tiebreaker
Iowa beats tOSU in the CCG
PSU would be higher than tOSU in that scenario (yeah head to head but both of tOSU’s losses would be to teams PSU beat and fewest losses is always key). If one other conference champ has 2 losses (say Texas loses again) then we might very well get in then.
FWIW:
All four of the key games wrt the "tiebreaker" went PSU's way on Saturday - virtually assuring they win the tie-breaker.
Just one thing fell the wrong way. Oops.