The only two things I'd say in reply to your post, besides that I agreed with the spirit of it and the context, is that preseason rankings are largely built on Bob's quality and reputation. So if we make the CFP and return key skill guys, like the qb that finished fourth in the Heisman, and two high quality running backs, then we are going to be ranked high, despite some key losses elsewhere. That doesn't make the preseason rankings accurate related to this year's group.
Just about any other time that has happened in the past, that is that we were highly ranked, and then finished lower ranked by more than a few notches, it was mostly because of injuries. Sure, it's part of the game. But it also is highly impactful on performance.
A lot has been made by BStoops about Baker's overlooking open guys against Houston, too patiently looking for more down the field. I suspect that is the way he played last year in "this offense." But he had an elite receiver last season, and this year, he doesn't. So in key circumstances in 2015, he "locked on," to Shep and it worked out pretty good, because Sterling could get open and CTDB better when doubled a good part of the time than the other guys could with less coverage.
It was surmised by optimistic Bob, that it might improve us in the passing game, because more guys were going to get involved. But it makes coverages less predictable. Last year, Baker had a better idea how the coverage was going to rotate, because Sterling was going to get a little extra attention. Or more. This year, the defense can be more creative against us.
That could mean that in the "same offense," that Baker has to play and think differently. And he's going to have to change his approach more than a little. He's going to have to take what "this offense" gives him. The adjusting sure could have used a week against somebody with less talent, and at home.
The other thing is that winning an NC takes a whole lot of good fortune, unless you are way better than everybody else. If you're USC in 2004, or Alabama a couple of times in the last decade, that might be less true. But you still must be lucky to some extent. Avoiding injuries to the guys where the back up isn't quite up to the level of the starter are very important. Everybody in the country has some vulnerability in that. Some are more vulnerable than others.
I mean, Jason White going down with season ending knee problems, was the opposite of lucky. Especially true when it happened both times without contact. Jamal Brown getting knocked out of the CCG in 2003 was a crucial loss, even in a game where OUr record was so good, that we were making the NC game even with a loss, because his leaving, left White really vulnerable to getting beat up. And when that happened, it hurt Jason so severely that he wasn't the same player in the NC game.
It's not about who is on your roster. It's about who is available to play on game day, and how many of the truly key guys are how healthy? OU benefitted from that greatly against FSU, when they lost their top receiver for grade issues before the NC game. We used up a whole lot of luck in 2000. You have to put yourself into position to be lucky. But that year, it seemed that all the little things went OUr way, some that you control and some that you can't. One OLine injury that year at any position would have been a difference maker. We had no depth. But we had good fortune there.
The next year, the opposite was true. I don't believe in Karma. But sometimes, stuff just happens. Or doesn't. OU has less depth than most national teams, IMO, because our home recruiting base is so much thinner.
The only other school with the shortage of home grown talent who is ranked pretty high most years is Oregon. And Phil Knight has been paying for that talent for more than a decade.