Returning Points - 2026

[Wrestleknownothing]

There is only 1 returning point left in the portal (take a bow Evan Bates - Northwestern), so I thought I would put together the returning points graphic.

These are only points returning from the 2025 tournament. Each bar is broken down by where the points were scored in 2025.







With 11 returning scorers for Ohio State, obviously something will have to give.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

OK, Illinois is fixed. I was only missing Byrd, Luffman, and Ruth. Other than that...

And I went with the wrestlestat lineup for Ohio State.

And even though I hate doing it, I added in some guys returning from redshirt and used their 2024 points: Welsh PSU, Jack NCST, Arrington NCST.

And to make it more legible I cut it off at OKST. Sorry, Minnesota, Penn, Purdue, Wyoming, Stanford, Michigan, and Iowa State.

 

[Crablegs1]

It’s a great visualization. That AJ pickup was huge for Nebraska. I think we all would expect some of their guys to underperform last years performance, but adding AJ is basically guaranteed top 3 points at whatever weight he goes. That can make up some regression from guys like Taylor or Minto.

Oklahoma State is going to be relying on a lot of new guys to score major points for them. They have a lot of potential, but also a lot of questions.

The battle for 2nd should be pretty fun this year.

 

[HawkDay1]

Will be interesting getting to watch AJ all season in the B10

 

[MSU158]

It’s a great visualization. That AJ pickup was huge for Nebraska. I think we all would expect some of their guys to underperform last years performance, but adding AJ is basically guaranteed top 3 points at whatever weight he goes. That can make up some regression from guys like Taylor or Minto.

Oklahoma State is going to be relying on a lot of new guys to score major points for them. They have a lot of potential, but also a lot of questions.

The battle for 2nd should be pretty fun this year.

Even with AJ, he isn't replacing Lovett and Caleb Smith's points. As of now, Nebraska isn't replacing them with guys likely to score points at NCAA's. They can absolutely still beat Iowa at NCAA's, but I think their ceiling is a decent bit below Iowa's. Iowa just needs to finally stay healthy and they should score over 100 taking 2nd, but still probably finishing 40-50 behind PSU...

 

[Corby]

Even with AJ, he isn't replacing Lovett and Caleb Smith's points. As of now, Nebraska isn't replacing them with guys likely to score points at NCAA's. They can absolutely still beat Iowa at NCAA's, but I think their ceiling is a decent bit below Iowa's. Iowa just needs to finally stay healthy and they should score over 100 taking 2nd, but still probably finishing 40-50 behind PSU...

I don't think Nebraska will AA at 125 133 149 174. Probably 6AA and around 100 points.

 

[MSU158]

I don't think Nebraska will AA at 125 133 149 174. Probably 6AA and around 100 points.

Pretty much the same as I said over at the "Cesspool" other than I have Van Dee placing at 133 and McDanel R12 at 197...

 

[1stplacehawk]

I don't think Nebraska will AA at 125 133 149 174. Probably 6AA and around 100 points.

I don’t view 184 as a lock to AA either. They’re likely to have some serious regression to the mean throughout their lineup. Very solid team, but I’m not sure they replicate that same March performance if they wrestle that tournament 50 times over.

 

[Crablegs1]

Even with AJ, he isn't replacing Lovett and Caleb Smith's points. As of now, Nebraska isn't replacing them with guys likely to score points at NCAA's. They can absolutely still beat Iowa at NCAA's, but I think their ceiling is a decent bit below Iowa's. Iowa just needs to finally stay healthy and they should score over 100 taking 2nd, but still probably finishing 40-50 behind PSU...

Smith and Lovett are not in this chart showing “returning points”. Nebraska has a big lead in that regard.

 

[MSU158]

Smith and Lovett are not in this chart showing “returning points”. Nebraska has a big lead in that regard.

No argument there, but that isn't what I was talking about. How they will perform next year is more about the team strengths, weaknesses and how they match up at their respective weight classes.

Take last year, for instance. Iowa being weak at 125 and 141 took away very important scoring chances, while Nebraska scored a ton of points at those weights. Now, this year, Nebraska is likely to be in a similar situation at 125, 149 and 174, while Iowa is positioned to have all 10 guys seeded top 12, with a legit chance to AA across the board(not that I think they will, 7 or 8 is what I would say as of now).

Meanwhile, AJ will be up at a weight class that ranges up to 285, where his riding advantage could be rather tough to maintain. After that Mendez is still a major roadblock for their best returning wrestler, as well as Kasak for Taylor.

Finally, Ayala and Caliendo have the same issues with Byrd and possibly Crookham, along with Mesenbrink for Caliendo. But, Iowa also benefits a ton from weights like 149, 174, 184, 197 and 285 all thinning out considerably. Having a guy like Angelo coming in to 184 after monsters like Starocci, Keckeisen and even Plott leave, does Iowa a giant service in covering that returning points gap...

 

[Crablegs1]

No argument there, but that isn't what I was talking about.

Right, you’re off topic in a thread about returning points.

 

[MSU158]

Right, you’re off topic in a thread about returning points.

Lmfao, you literally ended the post I responded to saying how the race for 2nd should be pretty fun this year and THAT is what I was directly responding to....

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

I know, I know. I already did this. But now there is more. This time I am including redshirts. For a returning redshirt I used the points (and weight) scored the last time they wrestled.

More data = more fun. So here we go.

Returning AA's

Lets zig a bit before we zag. This one is about career honors rather than last year's points.

• 133 returns the most total AA honors with 15 from 12 wrestlers.
• 197 has the most AA's per wrestler with at least one career AA (1.8).
• 141 has both quality and quantity with 8 wrestlers who have earned an average of 1.75 AA's per.
• No weight has more than one returning champ, but 141 is also home to the only 2 time champ in Ohio State's Jesse Mendez.
• Only 184 and 197 do not have a returning champ.

Note: AA honors may have been earned at a different weight than the 2026 weight listed for the wrestler on wrestlestat.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

Pretty Picture Time

Speaking of moving around weights, here are two ways to visualize the movement of returning points between weights.

First a Chord Diagram. The color of the chord represents the previous weight. The destination weights are listed within the colored sections. The numbers around the outside are the point totals (also represented by the width of the chords).

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

Next a Sankey Diagram for the more linear in the crowd.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

And finally a table.

• Horizontal change represent consolidation in a weight. For example, 184 gained points from both 174 and 197.
• Vertical change represents dispersion from a weight. For example, 197 gave up points to 174and 285.
• Reading in both directions shows both sides of the coin. For example, 157 gave up 33.5 points to 165, but received 31 from 149.

 

[Wrestleknownothing]

Top Ten Teams Returning Points

Hopefully this one is not too tough to read. I attempted to capture both transfers and returning redshirts (and the combination of the two) in a single chart. For example, Oklahoma State:

• Has three returning scorers from last year's team (orange),
• And 1 returning from redshirt (black).
• They also picked up an Iowa State transfer who redshirted last year,
• And an Arizona State transfer who did not.

Note: These totals do not reflect any lineup decisions. For example, PSU has 8 returning scorers of varying vintages, but some of them may not start while being replaced by a wrestler with no tournament scoring history.

 

[UNIHawk]

There is only 1 returning point left in the portal (take a bow Evan Bates - Northwestern), so I thought I would put together the returning points graphic.

These are only points returning from the 2025 tournament. Each bar is broken down by where the points were scored in 2025.







With 11 returning scorers for Ohio State, obviously something will have to give.

Evan Bates transferred to Missouri. BTW, I liked the fight I saw out of Bates and he's decently talented. Did he not wrestle Buchanan twice last year and if I recall right he got a TD on Buchanan in the tourney and had a couple of other near TDs.

Bates shook loose after we got Endene and when that happened I wondered if the timeline was different if Iowa had gone that route?

 

[SJP80]

Pretty Picture Time

Speaking of moving around weights, here are two ways to visualize the movement of returning points between weights.

First a Chord Diagram. The color of the chord represents the previous weight. The destination weights are listed within the colored sections. The numbers around the outside are the point totals (also represented by the width of the chords).

 

[98lberEating2Lunches]

Maybe a graphic of that circle jerk that I've read about on here from time to time.