RPI Forecast for remaining regular season games
- Thread starter Quavarius
- Start date
I was about the type the same thing. Finishing 6-0 or 5-1 would be bliss, 4-2 is respectable against our remaining schedule, but anything worse kind of paints a grim outlook for the postseason, IMO. This stretch to finish the season is huge for the mentality of this group.
Huge is an understatement. We have to win both games at home. Have too. And then find a way to get two of the road games, you'd think at cuse is the most "attainable" of the four. This is a tough stretch. See what we are made of. Coincidentally, there is another tough stretch of six games in march and April. Will show us a lot about ourselves.
Before looking at the projections, it was a homer view to think we'd go 6-0 or 5-1 with THAT stretch. 4 on the road (2 ranked) and hosting FSU, who beat us by 16 earlier in the year.
Going .500 down the stretch isn't a huge deal (not ideal, either) but once the ACC/NCAA Tournament begins, it's a new season anyway
We have talent, depth and health and Coach K. We could still make a run.
Going .500 down the stretch isn't a huge deal (not ideal, either) but once the ACC/NCAA Tournament begins, it's a new season anyway
We have talent, depth and health and Coach K. We could still make a run.
I saw something the other night that said Duke's schedule is the second hardest remaining in the country. Don't recall who #1 was....
unc has Virginia twice, Louisville and Duke in their final 6.
I think I am feeling way better about this than most. Yes, it is a grind our last few games, but if Duke plays like Duke, I think we go 5-1 at worst. This assumes we get a victory tonight though to get it rolling. We lose tonight then I can see the 3-3 scenario.
Yeah, I would love to go 6-0, or 5-1, and think it's possible. But I would be quite satisfied with 4-2.
And if we're 3-3, and were competitive in those games we lost, then I'll still feel we can make some noise, because we're not going to be playing on the road in the NCAA's. It is really tough to win on the road in the ACC this year with the quality of teams that abound. 4 games on the road out of 6 (against good competition) is a monster stretch.
OFC
Q, thanks for the post. I guess you will just have to call me a "homer", but I think 6-0 is still possible if we are healthy. I think I could live with 5-1, and will accept 4-2 
, but for us to go 3-3 would not be good, because to me it would mean someone is injured.
I'm not good with accepting computer ratings, and although they are based on past performance, they fail to include one thing, the human heart! You can't compute that, and I believe this team has turned the corner, and with Coach K back, they all know what is at stake from here on out. I also think the concentration level takes a step up starting tonight.
Go Duke!
OFC
, but for us to go 3-3 would not be good, because to me it would mean someone is injured.I'm not good with accepting computer ratings, and although they are based on past performance, they fail to include one thing, the human heart! You can't compute that, and I believe this team has turned the corner, and with Coach K back, they all know what is at stake from here on out. I also think the concentration level takes a step up starting tonight.
Go Duke!
OFC
We've been losing the turnover battle. If we reverse that then I think we will win 5 or 6 of these last games.
If you look at the game-by-game forecasts, Duke is favored in 4 games. Not sure where the 3-3 finish comes from.
They were #4 on the list I saw. I think what benefited them was that only one of those four games is on the road.
I know I saw it on ESPN Monday night (might have been at halftime of the KU-WVU game)....
While the SEC is down, still 3 top 25 teams in the country which is not bad, they held their own in the SEC/BIG 12 challenge
It's not par to the ACC from top to bottom but the SEC still has some solid teams especially away from home.
I stopped reading after "while the SEC is down..."
Yes , I know SEC teams get up for UK and would get up for Duke the same way (probably more), but I'd trade UK's final schedule for Duke's in a heartbeat.
Again, I was joking....well sort of...
Yes , I know SEC teams get up for UK and would get up for Duke the same way (probably more), but I'd trade UK's final schedule for Duke's in a heartbeat.
Again, I was joking....well sort of...
Q, thanks for the post. I guess you will just have to call me a "homer", but I think 6-0 is still possible if we are healthy. I think I could live with 5-1, and will accept 4-2
I'm not good with accepting computer ratings, and although they are based on past performance, they fail to include one thing, the human heart! You can't compute that, and I believe this team has turned the corner, and with Coach K back, they all know what is at stake from here on out. I also think the concentration level takes a step up starting tonight.
Go Duke!
OFC
No problem with thinking like that. Like I stated earlier, I don't know how accurate this is and have never used it before, but at the end of the regular season, I will check back to see how accurate the predictions are.
We would have to win out and hope for some help to win the ACC regular season. I'm not counting on that to happen. I want us to use the remaining regular season to continue to come together (we're in December mode with this team) and have it rolling beginning in the ACC Tournament. If we can show improvements in the ACC Tournament, we could enter the NCAA Tournament with less pressure and more talent and depth than most teams.
If we win out, we win the ACC regular season, no questions asked.
One in the win column...5 more to go. A great start for sure.
OFC
OFC
This reaks of attention whoring without context. I know that's your thing but come on man...
Say what? Weren't we favored in those games? If anything is incorrect, please point out the inaccuracies.
I said nothing about the accuracy of the predictions. All I said was they had us going 3-3 despite us being favored in 4 games. Doesn't add up, get it?
Just because you are favored doesn't mean you will actually win the game. UVA was favored over Duke last night and they lost. Get it?
Edit: I was talking to 2 skerz 3 re: "inaccuracies"
Whatever. If you are going to do a quick drive-by on the message board and comment on every post you see, do us the courtesy of at least reading our posts. Have another drink, dude.
UVA is starting to look like a team that could lose in the first round of the tournament. I think they should be okay as long as London Perrantes gets out of this shooting funk. During this current four-game losing streak, he has combined to go for 16 for 58 from the field (27.6%). Not good.
It can certainly add up; it's all about probabilities.
Let's say I have four games left and my chances of winning each is 60%. I'm the favorite in every game - yay! Am I then expected to go 4-0 over those four games? Hell no. The chances of me going 4-0 are actually tiny - .6 x .6 x .6 x .6 = .13 or 13% I have a 13% chance of going 4-0 over those four games in which I'm the favorite. So, the computers, looking at the most likely scenario for those four games, will likely say 3-1. I'm favored to win each of those games individually, I'm a serious underdog to win all four of those games in a row.
Now, if I was a 90% fav in each of those four games, then the computers would predict I'd be 4-0 at the end, as .9 x .9 x .9 x .9 = .66 or 66%. I'd have a 66% chance of going 4-0.