Rutgers - Will anything change?

GatoLouco

Sophomore
Nov 13, 2019
5,636
116
63
We are 1/2 way through the conference season. It's not good. I don't think anyone can argue that this is not "too early to tell". By tomorrow night we will be closer to the end of the conference season than to the beginning.

When is pounding the rock insanity? When do we try a different hammer? We have 1/2 the data/history on hand for 2022.

Some thoughts:
1) We have basically not touched the starting 5 - The Roper change is hardly an attempt to change anything. It's swapping the lowest man on the totem pole for someone else. I've voiced my thoughts that I think it made sense for Roper to play big minutes against WI. Not so much that it makes sense to give him anywhere close to the same minutes Berry should have in most games. We could try the obvious Young/Nance, we could try Beran starting at 3, we could try Berry and Roper with Audige coming off the bench with a different rotation. Players care very deeply about being starters or not. Regardless of what you hear them say publicly, they do. It's kind of the same of hearing people in an office saying they don't care about their title or having an office. Overwhelmingly they care, at best they try to convince themselves they don't. A player starting is a vote of confidence, among other things. It's not an accident changing the starters is so often used as an attempt to shake things up

2) We don't ride the hot hand or what is working, we don't even change lineups to start the second half. We have had multiple games where things improve as the first half progresses. And we come back from the locker room with the same lineup, just to see it squandering the progress we have made. It's almost like there's a script and nothing will make us deviate from it (with the exception of foul trouble).

3) The rotations, they are insanity. From minute 15 in the first half to the break it's a lunacy of rotations. What is it that we are up to? 30 substitutions by half time? There's no chance of anyone getting hot. There's 4 guys off the bench together with very little hope of scoring on offense except Young making a couple of plays. I'd love to see data on number of subs we do vs the rest of the conference.

My guess is we will see no changes at all. Rutgers is struggling, Nebraska is the worst team in the league. We have played close games and the calendar has been much tougher than it will be in the 2nd half of conference play. So pound the rock because that's the only way to get to winning. Except when we faced minor or struggling teams, at home, PSU and MD, just like against the big boys, we lost.
 

JournCat

Junior
Aug 4, 2009
4,512
242
63
It'd be interesting to try Beran off the bench. His offensive rating and shooting percentages aren't bad, but he just doesn't shoot or get the ball enough next to Nance. Maybe he can be Nance's backup and get more possessions against opposing second units and you replace him with Williams to take the tougher big man assignment on D and give you Sanjay Lumpkin-lite production on offense.
 

NUCat320

Senior
Dec 4, 2005
19,469
495
0
Three things that are certain: death, taxes, and NU’s leading scorer and rebounder on the bench after the first media timeout.

NU has one player in the conference top 25 in minutes per game during conference games: Boo, at 32.2, ranked 23rd.

Only Indiana doesn’t have a player averaging more minutes per game.
 

PurpleWhiteBoy

Redshirt
Feb 25, 2021
5,303
0
0
We are 1/2 way through the conference season. It's not good. I don't think anyone can argue that this is not "too early to tell". By tomorrow night we will be closer to the end of the conference season than to the beginning.

When is pounding the rock insanity? When do we try a different hammer? We have 1/2 the data/history on hand for 2022.

Some thoughts:
1) We have basically not touched the starting 5 - The Roper change is hardly an attempt to change anything. It's swapping the lowest man on the totem pole for someone else. I've voiced my thoughts that I think it made sense for Roper to play big minutes against WI. Not so much that it makes sense to give him anywhere close to the same minutes Berry should have in most games. We could try the obvious Young/Nance, we could try Beran starting at 3, we could try Berry and Roper with Audige coming off the bench with a different rotation. Players care very deeply about being starters or not. Regardless of what you hear them say publicly, they do. It's kind of the same of hearing people in an office saying they don't care about their title or having an office. Overwhelmingly they care, at best they try to convince themselves they don't. A player starting is a vote of confidence, among other things. It's not an accident changing the starters is so often used as an attempt to shake things up

2) We don't ride the hot hand or what is working, we don't even change lineups to start the second half. We have had multiple games where things improve as the first half progresses. And we come back from the locker room with the same lineup, just to see it squandering the progress we have made. It's almost like there's a script and nothing will make us deviate from it (with the exception of foul trouble).

3) The rotations, they are insanity. From minute 15 in the first half to the break it's a lunacy of rotations. What is it that we are up to? 30 substitutions by half time? There's no chance of anyone getting hot. There's 4 guys off the bench together with very little hope of scoring on offense except Young making a couple of plays. I'd love to see data on number of subs we do vs the rest of the conference.

My guess is we will see no changes at all. Rutgers is struggling, Nebraska is the worst team in the league. We have played close games and the calendar has been much tougher than it will be in the 2nd half of conference play. So pound the rock because that's the only way to get to winning. Except when we faced minor or struggling teams, at home, PSU and MD, just like against the big boys, we lost.
Of your points...

#1 - Yes the fixation with Nance & Beran in the frontcourt is simply inexplicable. The refusal to try Beran at small forward is mind-boggling. Lack of imagination is the hallmark of a bad coach, from pee-wee soccer up thru the NBA.

#2 - This drives me crazy. We substitute like the Tasmanian Devil, presumably searching for lineups that succeed brilliantly in 2 or 3 possessions, then ALWAYS go right back to the same starting lineup at halftime. In the majority of games last year, the most successful lineup from the first half DID NOT PLAY in the 2nd half.

#3 - Collins has a perverse habit of removing guys from games when they start playing well. Is that a reward? And he removes guys from games when they commit a foul or make a mistake! Apparently, the way to stay on the court is to float around doing nothing.

We should beat Rutgers handily tomorrow.
 

NUCat320

Senior
Dec 4, 2005
19,469
495
0
I noticed that Greer remained in the game after he got on Saturday (pull-up jumper, runner in the lane, maybe a solid assist on a fast break?), and then precisely stopped being hot.
 
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7th Cir. Cat

Redshirt
Jul 25, 2006
2,171
9
23
Of your points...

#1 - Yes the fixation with Nance & Beran in the frontcourt is simply inexplicable. The refusal to try Beran at small forward is mind-boggling. Lack of imagination is the hallmark of a bad coach, from pee-wee soccer up thru the NBA.

#2 - This drives me crazy. We substitute like the Tasmanian Devil, presumably searching for lineups that succeed brilliantly in 2 or 3 possessions, then ALWAYS go right back to the same starting lineup at halftime. In the majority of games last year, the most successful lineup from the first half DID NOT PLAY in the 2nd half.

#3 - Collins has a perverse habit of removing guys from games when they start playing well. Is that a reward? And he removes guys from games when they commit a foul or make a mistake! Apparently, the way to stay on the court is to float around doing nothing.

We should beat Rutgers handily tomorrow.
Why do you think we should beat Rutgers "handily"? They have wins against then #1 Purdue, Iowa and Michigan. Is it because they are a poor road team? Injuries? Ron Harper Jr. is capable of completely taking oiver games. Should be a close, but I would imagine Rutgers is favored.
 

Purple Pile Driver

All-Conference
May 14, 2014
27,130
2,565
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Of your points...

#1 - Yes the fixation with Nance & Beran in the frontcourt is simply inexplicable. The refusal to try Beran at small forward is mind-boggling. Lack of imagination is the hallmark of a bad coach, from pee-wee soccer up thru the NBA.

#2 - This drives me crazy. We substitute like the Tasmanian Devil, presumably searching for lineups that succeed brilliantly in 2 or 3 possessions, then ALWAYS go right back to the same starting lineup at halftime. In the majority of games last year, the most successful lineup from the first half DID NOT PLAY in the 2nd half.

#3 - Collins has a perverse habit of removing guys from games when they start playing well. Is that a reward? And he removes guys from games when they commit a foul or make a mistake! Apparently, the way to stay on the court is to float around doing nothing.

We should beat Rutgers handily tomorrow.
Was there supposed to be a sarcasm font for “We should beat Rutgers handily tomorrow “?

I am sure you understand they are 6-4 having beat both Purdue and Michigan and we are 2-8. Think I missed the justification on this one or the sarcasm font.
 

7th Cir. Cat

Redshirt
Jul 25, 2006
2,171
9
23
Yeah, I mean, it’s funny in a “this team is pretty bad” way. The moment Collins went against his typical approach is the moment that *also* didn’t work.
Yup. I can't remember which football coach said it, but someone asked why they didn't change their formations/packages in the second half against Alabama and the coach responded: "would it have mattered?" Not comparing any of these teams to Alabama football, but we may just not have the players to win in the clutch. We are halfway through the season. I'm almost to the point of "you are who your record says you are."
 

PurpleWhiteBoy

Redshirt
Feb 25, 2021
5,303
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I noticed that Greer remained in the game after he got on Saturday (pull-up jumper, runner in the lane, maybe a solid assist on a fast break?), and then precisely stopped being hot.
Greer played the last 15 minutes of the game.
Greer played great from the 10 minute mark to the 8 minute mark.
He got an assist at 6:48.
He didn't do anything else noteworthy until 34 seconds left when he missed a game-tying 3.

The heat was long gone.
 

PurpleWhiteBoy

Redshirt
Feb 25, 2021
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Why do you think we should beat Rutgers "handily"? They have wins against then #1 Purdue, Iowa and Michigan. Is it because they are a poor road team? Injuries? Ron Harper Jr. is capable of completely taking oiver games. Should be a close, but I would imagine Rutgers is favored.
I just think we're going to win comfortably.
We will play hard.
Rutgers struggles to score and I expect Young to play well (unless he is psychologically destroyed - I hope not). Audige will slow Harper down.

Maybe I'm just hoping? I'm going to the game and I'm confident we'll win.

Since you asked though, I looked at ESPN and they give us a 75% chance to win.
 

Styre

Senior
Oct 14, 2004
7,732
403
83
FWIW, the computers think Rutgers is overachieving as much as we are underachieving. They're currently #113 NET, despite their 6-4 conference record, and we're #78.
 

GatoLouco

Sophomore
Nov 13, 2019
5,636
116
63
Rutgers lost back to back games against MD and MN and won by 2 against Nebraska. That’s why I said they were struggling. Overall they’re over achieving for sure. I don’t think many people thought they’d be 6-4 (5-2 before this 3 game stretch 5-2). They can be suffocating on defense.

Having Greer on the floor to close games, hot or not, is nothing new. And I can’t criticize having a seasoned guy on the floor when everyone turns into a turtle at the end of games.
 

AdamOnFirst

All-Conference
Nov 29, 2021
9,710
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This has been going on for a lot longer than 4 years. It isn't the rotation, it isn't the timeouts. It isn't the inbound plays. It isn't even these particular players.

It's in the walls, the air, the water. There's only so many things that can even attempt to fix it.
 

GatoLouco

Sophomore
Nov 13, 2019
5,636
116
63
This has been going on for a lot longer than 4 years. It isn't the rotation, it isn't the timeouts. It isn't the inbound plays. It isn't even these particular players.

It's in the walls, the air, the water. There's only so many things that can even attempt to fix it.
Sure. Maybe no change will work. Perfectly possible. But is doing nothing the best option?

The point I’m trying to make is that maybe we should try something different. And I’d dare say most coaches would do that at 2-8. Maybe being stubborn is a pre requisite to coach at NU. At least on the recruiting trail that’s probably a good trait to have.
 

AdamOnFirst

All-Conference
Nov 29, 2021
9,710
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Sure. Maybe no change will work. Perfectly possible. But is doing nothing the best option?

The point I’m trying to make is that maybe we should try something different. And I’d dare say most coaches would do that at 2-8. Maybe being stubborn is a pre requisite to coach at NU. At least on the recruiting trail that’s probably a good trait to have.
I'm not advocating for any particular solution, whether they attempt to reshuffle the deck chairs on the Titanic for the umpteeth time with schematic adjustments or something larger like the firing of Collins. As long as Collins is still there, trying what he can is still his job. I'm just expressing my opinion that these details are just deck chairs within a culture that's sinking to the bottom of the Atlantic.
 

SDakaGordie

Sophomore
Dec 29, 2016
2,359
162
53
I'm not advocating for any particular solution, whether they attempt to reshuffle the deck chairs on the Titanic for the umpteeth time with schematic adjustments or something larger like the firing of Collins. As long as Collins is still there, trying what he can is still his job. I'm just expressing my opinion that these details are just deck chairs within a culture that's sinking to the bottom of the Atlantic.
Please elaborate on culture if you would. We have just played 9 of 10 exhilaratingly competitive league games and despite not quite having enough talent (and maybe coaching, per the majority of this board) to win many, we are headed to the bottom of the ocean? What were you thinking in all of your other living years with the exception of about 5 of them?
 

AdamOnFirst

All-Conference
Nov 29, 2021
9,710
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Please elaborate on culture if you would. We have just played 9 of 10 exhilaratingly competitive league games and despite not quite having enough talent (and maybe coaching, per the majority of this board) to win many, we are headed to the bottom of the ocean? What were you thinking in all of your other living years with the exception of about 5 of them?
They have lost an outrageously high percentage of every close game they’ve played under Collins since the tournament year, and almost always with the exact same script.

I’m saying the problem of inexplicably not winning games is cultural.
 

SimpsonElmwood

Sophomore
Nov 20, 2004
1,821
141
63
They have lost an outrageously high percentage of every close game they’ve played under Collins since the tournament year, and almost always with the exact same script.

I’m saying the problem of inexplicably not winning games is cultural.
We are the most innovative in the country at gut-wrenching losses.
 

peatymeanis

Redshirt
Jan 6, 2005
921
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They have lost an outrageously high percentage of every close game they’ve played under Collins since the tournament year, and almost always with the exact same script.

I’m saying the problem of inexplicably not winning games is cultural.
Some on here apparently find inexplicable losing to be exhilarating
 

phatcat_rivals223240

All-Conference
Nov 5, 2001
18,867
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Was there supposed to be a sarcasm font for “We should beat Rutgers handily tomorrow “?

I am sure you understand they are 6-4 having beat both Purdue and Michigan and we are 2-8. Think I missed the justification on this one or the sarcasm font.
Yes, he said 2 hilarious things - float around doing nothing, and beat Rutgers handily.

These are the doldrums that are NU basketball for half a decade - get into the B1G schedule and lose an ungodly, hilarious amount of games until all hope is snuffed out.
 

Kat burglar

Redshirt
Sep 5, 2017
231
8
18
2nd half gentlemen!

Start of a new game. Shake it off.

It's like a game where we shot 20% in the first half and are down by 6 (or more).

If we get back to average for the game we shoot 55% in the second half and come back to win.

Our season was always stacked in the first half, but lighter in the second half.

This has been a fun team to watch. We have been in almost all of our games. That is a huge improvement over years past. Now it's time to improve the Ws.

Go Cats!
 
Dec 24, 2010
3,099
102
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It seems like almost all of our B1G losses this year have come down to the last three minutes or so, regardless the scores from the first half. Seems like the changes the team needs dial down to finishing more than anything else.
 

GatoLouco

Sophomore
Nov 13, 2019
5,636
116
63
I just think we're going to win comfortably.
We will play hard.
Rutgers struggles to score and I expect Young to play well (unless he is psychologically destroyed - I hope not). Audige will slow Harper down.

Maybe I'm just hoping? I'm going to the game and I'm confident we'll win.

Since you asked though, I looked at ESPN and they give us a 75% chance to win.
Chance is up to 80.7% and we are 5.5 pts favorites
 

PurpleWhiteBoy

Redshirt
Feb 25, 2021
5,303
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Chance is up to 80.7% and we are 5.5 pts favorites
Well that just shattered my confidence!

When we are favored at home in football and basketball, we seem to think we have already won the game.

If we come out flat for this one, I will be very disappointed.
 

phatcat_rivals223240

All-Conference
Nov 5, 2001
18,867
1,035
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2nd half gentlemen!

Start of a new game. Shake it off.

It's like a game where we shot 20% in the first half and are down by 6 (or more).

If we get back to average for the game we shoot 55% in the second half and come back to win.

Our season was always stacked in the first half, but lighter in the second half.

This has been a fun team to watch. We have been in almost all of our games. That is a huge improvement over years past. Now it's time to improve the Ws.

Go Cats!
"We have been in almost all of our games. That is a huge improvement over years past. "

I didn't know you were right, but you are. I looked it up for the last three years, focusing on the long losing streaks. I didn't do any standard deviations or anything, but we clearly were getting clobbered in more games than now. I fully expect us to have a similarly bad or worse B1G record than last year, but I will grudgingly admit that the team is playing better.

Nevertheless, and despite all of the darts thrown at Nance, I see the team dropping off next year, as the loss of Nance will not be entirely offset by improvement from others. More succinctly, this is the year where Collins could have rebuilt the program and support for same, and he squandered it. This is our near term "peak", believe it or not.
 

peatymeanis

Redshirt
Jan 6, 2005
921
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"We have been in almost all of our games. That is a huge improvement over years past. "

I didn't know you were right, but you are. I looked it up for the last three years, focusing on the long losing streaks. I didn't do any standard deviations or anything, but we clearly were getting clobbered in more games than now. I fully expect us to have a similarly bad or worse B1G record than last year, but I will grudgingly admit that the team is playing better.

Nevertheless, and despite all of the darts thrown at Nance, I see the team dropping off next year, as the loss of Nance will not be entirely offset by improvement from others. More succinctly, this is the year where Collins could have rebuilt the program and support for same, and he squandered it. This is our near term "peak", believe it or not.
Yes exactly. Three years of hardcore losing, supposedly building up to something, and this is the result?
 

lou v

All-Conference
Staff member
Aug 27, 2004
17,543
2,011
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"We have been in almost all of our games. That is a huge improvement over years past. "

I didn't know you were right, but you are. I looked it up for the last three years, focusing on the long losing streaks. I didn't do any standard deviations or anything, but we clearly were getting clobbered in more games than now. I fully expect us to have a similarly bad or worse B1G record than last year, but I will grudgingly admit that the team is playing better.

Nevertheless, and despite all of the darts thrown at Nance, I see the team dropping off next year, as the loss of Nance will not be entirely offset by improvement from others. More succinctly, this is the year where Collins could have rebuilt the program and support for same, and he squandered it. This is our near term "peak", believe it or not.
Remember, Nance COULD come back next year. He can use his free COVID year, if he wants to. I'm not saying he will -- just throwing it out there. It's possible that the entire team could come back next season, with the exception of Williams.
 

PurpleWhiteBoy

Redshirt
Feb 25, 2021
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Remember, Nance COULD come back next year. He can use his free COVID year, if he wants to. I'm not saying he will -- just throwing it out there. It's possible that the entire team could come back next season, with the exception of Williams.
Yes, sir. But it is also possible that Ryan Young could have earned his diploma and just decide to do something else. I haven't seen his transcript, but it would be okay with me if he was on a five year plan academically. Perhaps you have knowledge of that situation?
 

CatManTrue

All-American
Oct 4, 2008
16,036
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Remember, Nance COULD come back next year. He can use his free COVID year, if he wants to. I'm not saying he will -- just throwing it out there. It's possible that the entire team could come back next season, with the exception of Williams.
Why? He’ll have an outside shot at a NBA or European pro career. Does he really need one free year of a master’s when he could try to make some real coin?