“Santa Clara will win because of 3’s and turnovers.”

[Cats192]

The whole SC trendy pick seems to be based on two main argumers.

1. SC is ELITE at turning teams over AND Kentucky has a turnover problem.

Kentucky is 81st nationally in turnovers. That may sound high. But we average less turnovers than:

Duke
Kansas
Arizona
Michigan
UConn
And…get this…Santa Clara.

Kentucky has less of a turnover problem than Santa Clara.
Against Quad 1 competition, SC ranks 101st in defensive turnover %.

2. Santa Clara can REALLY shoot it from 3.

3 point %’s:

SC: 34.7%
UK: 34.9%.

If the 3 point shooting is the key, should we put Santa Clara on upset alert?

 

[20MRoster]

It's slightly trending, but I don't see it. SC is awful on overall defense IIRC. This UK team struggles against P5, but it eats up mid majors, especially those with poor defense.

UK - SC is the third closest 7-10 game for spread, and the spread has only moved 1 towards SC since it opened. High probability UK wins. Obviously there's about a 1/3 chance SC wins -- it's not a given.

As bad as I hate this team, I expect this to be a win. Next round, assuming Iowa State doesn't lose to the 15, will be a diff story.

 

[The_Catfather]

No one outside of Santa Clara fans and hardcore WCC viewers knows anything of substance about them. Just because you watched them one night at 2 a.m. doesn't mean anything. Experts are picking them to win because A) a 10/7 isn't an upset, and B) we're not very good.

 

[20MRoster]

No one outside of Santa Clara fans and hardcore WCC viewers knows anything of substance about them. Just because you watched them one night at 2 a.m. doesn't mean anything. Experts are picking them to win because A) a 10/7 isn't an upset, and B) we're not very good.

Not sure if you are replying to me, but assuming you are --

Most people are picking UK. The bets pouring in for SC were only enough to shift the line 1. There are 2 7-10 games that are bet more evenly.

Some "experts" picking them to win doesn't mean "everyone" is picking them to win.

For better or worse, UK is expected to win this game. There are other games out there where this is not the case for the higher seed, but this is not one of those games.

Nobody needs to know anything about Santa Clara -- we have plenty of models to infer from. And right now, the favorite is UK.

That said -- I totally agree with you we are not good. I've been saying since the preseason I hate this team, and it has not changed 1 bit.

 

[The_Catfather]

Not sure if you are replying to me, but assuming you are --

Most people are picking UK. The bets pouring in for SC were only enough to shift the line 1. There are 2 7-10 games that are bet more evenly.

Some "experts" picking them to win doesn't mean "everyone" is picking them to win.

For better or worse, UK is expected to win this game. There are other games out there where this is not the case for the higher seed, but this is not one of those games.

Nobody needs to know anything about Santa Clara -- we have plenty of models to infer from. And right now, the favorite is UK.

That said -- I totally agree with you we are not good. I've been saying since the preseason I hate this team, and it has not changed 1 bit.

DIdn't mean you. As soon as the brackets came out the experts pin-pointed this as an upset as if they'd watched Santa Clara fervently all season. I agree I think we'll win, but it wouldn't surprise me at all if we lost. It's pretty much a coin-toss game, imo, as are most 7/10s and 8/9s. DraftKings has us -2.5 right now.

 

[Cerberus]

It's slightly trending, but I don't see it. SC is awful on overall defense IIRC. This UK team struggles against P5, but it eats up mid majors, especially those with poor defense.

UK - SC is the third closest 7-10 game for spread, and the spread has only moved 1 towards SC since it opened. High probability UK wins. Obviously there's about a 1/3 chance SC wins -- it's not a given.

As bad as I hate this team, I expect this to be a win. Next round, assuming Iowa State doesn't lose to the 15, will be a diff story.

We cover Friday and then the cyclone blows in. Just another uneducated guess.

 

[Wildcat_in_DC]

this year, UK vs the following teams who play fast and score the ball well had the following turnovers:
ul - 14
gonzaga - 11
bama - 12
uga - 13
a&m - 13

all loses

on the year UK has shot 34% from three on 806 attempts
on the year SC has shot 34% from three on 994 attempts

given the same percentage but SC had taken nearly 200 more threes than uk.....i dont know how anyone can conclude SC does not have a 3 point advantage in this game. unless they cant do math.

 

[MonsterMash79]

You gotta get off that hoe-show bro… CBS breakdown is where it’s at

 

[FitchandMurray29]

My worthless opinion, the biggest problem for UK this season has been all those excruciating droughts.

Santa Clara is one of the worst teams in terms of 2 point defense at the rim and also has a high foul percentage.

Those two things lead me to believe we avoid a long drought and thus avoid an upset.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

My hope is that the SEC slate wss really just a notch above what our teams talent was capable of, and that we should fair better against an SMC kind of school.

But it all comes down to how mentally prepared we are. I believe this game will be 100% decided by Kentucky. If they are prepared snd want to win, they will.. if they are checked out then SMC will have a field day with us.

 

[peterpiper09]

LOL

 

[Stenchymouse]

If Santa Clara was ELITE at anything, they'd have at least a few decent wins on their resume'...

 

[Wildcat_in_DC]

we have not done very well against teams with very good/great PFs

msu/kohler - 20pts/5rebs
unc/wilson - 15pts/12rebs
gonzaga/huff - 20pts/2rebs
bama/allen - 11pts/9rebs
mizzu/mitchell - 21pts/4rebs (destroyed us again in the W in the SECT)
uf/chinyule - 10pts/12rebs, 13pts/8rebs
auburn/murphy - 25pts/10rebs
a&m/agee - 14pts/8rebs

all losses.

pope called this allen graves kid a lottery pick....

 

[Tri-Countycat]

Santa Clara will have no answer for the UK, 5 out, 4 stand around offense.

 

[LineSkiCat14]

Apparently im mixing up Santa Clara with St. Marys. Dont mind me..

 

[Tri-Countycat]

 

[Wildcat_in_DC]

SC played 3 games vs gonzaga

game 1: 37/37 at half time. 11 minutes left in the 2nd half it was a 4 point game before gonzaga pulled away and won by 12 at home
game 2: 44/39 gonzaga at halftime, SC lead with 11 minutes to go in the 2nd half, gonzaga won 8 on the road
game 3: 33/29 SC at halftime, SC lead with 11 minutes to go in the 2nd half, gonzaga won by 11

uk vs gonzaga: gonzaga 43/20 at halftime, gonzaga wins by 39

the "they lost to gonzaga same as us" line leaves a few details out.

 

[Cats192]

SC played 3 games vs gonzaga

game 1: 37/37 at half time. 11 minutes left in the 2nd half it was a 4 point game before gonzaga pulled away and won by 12 at home
game 2: 44/39 gonzaga at halftime, SC lead with 11 minutes to go in the 2nd half, gonzaga won 8 on the road
game 3: 33/29 SC at halftime, SC lead with 11 minutes to go in the 2nd half, gonzaga won by 11

uk vs gonzaga: gonzaga 43/20 at halftime, gonzaga wins by 39

the "they lost to gonzaga same as us" line leaves a few details out.

See, this one's my favorite. Because Florida is better than Gonzaga.

We lost to Florida by 9, 7, and 8. When we lose to Florida, I'm told "There's no moral victories. Victory is all that matters. I don't care that you only lose to them by single digits.

Santa Clara loses 3 games to a less talented Gonzaga team. They lost 2 of those by double digits. 2 of those games, Gonzaga didn't have Braden Huff--who scored 20 vs UK. He's their 2nd leading scorer.

So to recap: SC loses to Gonzaga twice by double digits, once by single digits. 2 of those 3 games, They were missing their 2nd leadering scorer. And those 3 losses--because they were close--prove they can beat Kentucky.

Kentucky loses to a more talented Florida 3 times at full strength. All 3 times by single digits. But, those results don't tell us anything other than "UK sucks."

Does that about sum it up?

 

[LineSkiCat14]

SC played 3 games vs gonzaga

game 1: 37/37 at half time. 11 minutes left in the 2nd half it was a 4 point game before gonzaga pulled away and won by 12 at home
game 2: 44/39 gonzaga at halftime, SC lead with 11 minutes to go in the 2nd half, gonzaga won 8 on the road
game 3: 33/29 SC at halftime, SC lead with 11 minutes to go in the 2nd half, gonzaga won by 11

uk vs gonzaga: gonzaga 43/20 at halftime, gonzaga wins by 39

the "they lost to gonzaga same as us" line leaves a few details out.

My somewhat counter is that Kentucky was REALLY bad early on. I wondered if this team would even make the tournament. Now while we are improved, we are still inconsistent, so who knows. But I do think Kentucky is a better team now than what we saw back in January.

 

[Wildcat_in_DC]

See, this one's my favorite. Because Florida is better than Gonzaga.

We lost to Florida by 9, 7, and 8. When we lose to Florida, I'm told "There's no moral victories. Victory is all that matters. I don't care that you only lose to them by single digits.

Santa Clara loses 3 games to a less talented Gonzaga team. They lost 2 of those by double digits. 2 of those games, Gonzaga didn't have Braden Huff--who scored 20 vs UK. He's their 2nd leading scorer.

So to recap: SC loses to Gonzaga twice by double digits, once by single digits. 2 of those 3 games, They were missing their 2nd leadering scorer. And those 3 losses--because they were close--prove they can beat Kentucky.

Kentucky loses to a more talented Florida 3 times at full strength. All 3 times by single digits. But, those results don't tell us anything other than "UK sucks."

Does that about sum it up?

there is no proving anything. SC and UK are about even, give or take. they run a system with types of players that has caused us problems all year.

 

[Wildcat_in_DC]

My somewhat counter is that Kentucky was REALLY bad early on. I wondered if this team would even make the tournament. Now while we are improved, we are still inconsistent, so who knows. But I do think Kentucky is a better team now than what we saw back in January.

i get that. but i dont think we have improved that much. i think we looked better against offensively challenged SEC teams. when we play teams that score it well and play fast we struggle bad. brings out our worst habits. i was surprised we beat vandy at home. but oweh, chandler, and aberdeen combined for 61 points. which never happens.

 

[Cats192]

i get that. but i dont think we have improved that much. i think we looked better against offensively challenged SEC teams. when we play teams that score it well and play fast we struggle bad. brings out our worst habits. i was surprised we beat vandy at home. but oweh, chandler, and aberdeen combined for 61 points. which never happens.

Also, Huff was out for 2 out of the 3 SC games vs Gonzaga.

I'd be curious as to how this Kentucky team would stack up in February/March vs Gonzaga without Huff. Huff ate us alive in Nasvhille.

 

[BMR1987]

I'm not falling for the upset forecasts here. Is it possible we lose? Sure, but most anything seems possible with this bunch.

What I'm not going to do is set this up as though Pope really accomplished something if we beat the WCC's 3rd place team. I predict we win this game by double digits, and then get the doors blown off of us by Iowa State. Now if we win that one, okay, then I'd say that we at least did something. Still not as much as we would like if that's it, but something. All beating Santa Clara does is prevent us from hitting rock bottom. It's nothing to beat our chest about.

 

[HenryMuto]

CBS #1 game out of the 32 ranked games this 1st round

1. (7) Kentucky vs. (10) Santa Clara​

Friday | 12:15 p.m. | CBS
UK's anxiety will make this entertaining for all those who like watching blue bloods sweat. Santa Clara coach Herb Sendek is trying to win an NCAA Tournament game with his fourth school after previously advancing in the Big Dance with Miami (Ohio), NC State and Arizona State. He's a grizzled veteran of these battles. Meanwhile, Kentucky coach Mark Pope has just been trying to keep the Wildcats on the rails during an up-and-down season marred by injury. Exiting before John Calipari once again would be painful.

 

[FatCatMan]

If Kentucky loses its because Mark Pope is 1-3 against Herb Sendek. Pope doesn’t do well against coaches that own him. (See Oats, Golden)

 

[Tri-Countycat]

If Kentucky loses its because Mark Pope is 1-3 against Herb Sendek. Pope doesn’t do well against coaches that own him. (See Oats, Golden)

Pearl, Mike White also

 

[kfwa]

what I do know is UK won't come in overlooking Santa Clara. UK was the first upset alert.

Usually when the entire nation is talking about it, it never happens.

I will actually predict a pretty one sided affair from UK in the game, to the extent it builds confidence for UK going into the next game

and they proceed to lose the second game of the tourney by 13 points, because that is what this season has been like

 

[UKCowboys]

Its a tough matchup. I think they have a lot of issues guarding us if we shoot the ball well. We have to shoot well for this offense to work. We need to win the rebound battle too

 

[UKBB4Ever]

See, this one's my favorite. Because Florida is better than Gonzaga.

We lost to Florida by 9, 7, and 8. When we lose to Florida, I'm told "There's no moral victories. Victory is all that matters. I don't care that you only lose to them by single digits.

Santa Clara loses 3 games to a less talented Gonzaga team. They lost 2 of those by double digits. 2 of those games, Gonzaga didn't have Braden Huff--who scored 20 vs UK. He's their 2nd leading scorer.

So to recap: SC loses to Gonzaga twice by double digits, once by single digits. 2 of those 3 games, They were missing their 2nd leadering scorer. And those 3 losses--because they were close--prove they can beat Kentucky.

Kentucky loses to a more talented Florida 3 times at full strength. All 3 times by single digits. But, those results don't tell us anything other than "UK sucks."

Does that about sum it up?

That assumes Fl is better than Gonzaga

But they aren’t.

And Fl went into a stall in our games once they put us away. We never threatened in any of the 3 games. Never led for even 1 second.

If coach Nope does one of his walkabouts like in MSG or Bridgestone then SC wins easily.

If we actually play to win then we’ll win.

 

[rivercatinfl]

My worthless opinion, the biggest problem for UK this season has been all those excruciating droughts.

Santa Clara is one of the worst teams in terms of 2 point defense at the rim and also has a high foul percentage.

Those two things lead me to believe we avoid a long drought and thus avoid an upset.

I agree. We can't get into a 3 point shooting contest with them. Pound the ball inside ( except who do we ask to make the shots down low?) It's going to be interesting to see how Pope plays this. Hopefully he can read the tea leaves during the game and adjust where needed.

 

[UKWildcats1987]

This is the mid major type team Pope can beat. I think UK wins.

 

[bbnkat02]

If Santa Clara was ELITE at anything, they'd have at least a few decent wins on their resume'...

They did play Zaga a hell of a lot better than we did.

 

[Monday Nitro]

Minimize wasted possessions and make free throws.

 

[Cats192]

That assumes Fl is better than Gonzaga

But they aren’t.

And Fl went into a stall in our games once they put us away. We never threatened in any of the 3 games. Never led for even 1 second.

If coach Nope does one of his walkabouts like in MSG or Bridgestone then SC wins easily.

If we actually play to win then we’ll win.

Help me out here. Florida is a 1 seed. Gonzaga is a 3 seed.

But Florida isn’t better than Gonzaga?

 

[Cats192]

They did play Zaga a hell of a lot better than we did.

Again,

Context matters. Gonzaga didn’t have their 2nd leading scorer for 2/3 games. They also got 3 cracks at them.

I think we’ve gotten a lot better since the Gonzaga game in December.

 

[FitchandMurray29]

As I’m killing some time, I tried watching some Santa Clara highlights.

I was going in focused on Graves as he’s gotten a lot of talk, even getting called a future lottery pick by our head coach.

The movement/athleticism/length just isn’t there for that kid to probably ever be that. Comes through in his very high foul rate as he’s fouled out of 7 games while not being a regular starter for the team.

He can absolutely kill us in the pick and pop and pick and roll game if our team isn’t dialed in mentally. With our low BBIQ team that feels like a high likelihood lol

 

[Stenchymouse]

They did play Zaga a hell of a lot better than we did.

Gonzaga also lost to Portland, so comparisons are difficult to use.

We could definitely lose, but if we can't beat Santa Clara, it'll be a helluva off season.

 

[MichaelGray]

The whole SC trendy pick seems to be based on two main argumers.

1. SC is ELITE at turning teams over AND Kentucky has a turnover problem.

Kentucky is 81st nationally in turnovers. That may sound high. But we average less turnovers than:

Duke
Kansas
Arizona
Michigan
UConn
And…get this…Santa Clara.

Kentucky has less of a turnover problem than Santa Clara.
Against Quad 1 competition, SC ranks 101st in defensive turnover %.

2. Santa Clara can REALLY shoot it from 3.

3 point %’s:

SC: 34.7%
UK: 34.9%.

If the 3 point shooting is the key, should we put Santa Clara on upset alert?

It's Santa ******* Clara that plays in the WCC & ain't even the best team in that **** conference, I know we lost to Gonzaga back when we played like 14 players & no one knew their roles, however, we're in the SEC & that should've hardened us for this tournament. I'm always worried when we play, anything can happen but if we can't beat this team..........?

 

[MichaelGray]

I agree. We can't get into a 3 point shooting contest with them. Pound the ball inside ( except who do we ask to make the shots down low?) It's going to be interesting to see how Pope plays this. Hopefully he can read the tea leaves during the game and adjust where needed.

Jelavic is who, he's 67% inside the arc & below 30% from 3, Pope is playing him wrong. Moreno should be able to score inside also, plus we never know what Garrison were gonna get, the lazy one or the one that plays Oklahoma.

 

[MichaelGray]

They did play Zaga a hell of a lot better than we did.

That's because they're in the same conference. I bet the Zags would've lost badly to some of our SEC opponents. No one knew their roles in that game because he was playing like 13-14 players.