Florida Gators
Head Coach: Billy Donovan
Record: 15-15
SEC Record: 8-9
Away Record: 2-8 SEC: 2-6
Florida under Donovan @ Rupp: 4-14
Last visit: 2/15/14 Florida 69 UK 59
Schedule
N14 William & Mary W 68-45
N17 Miami L 67-69
N21 Louisiana-Monroe W/OT 61-56
N26 vs. Georgetown L/OT 66-65
N27 vs. UAB W 56-47
N28 vs. #5/6 No. Carolina L 64-75
D5 at #11 Kansas L 65-71
D8 Yale W 85-47
D12 Texas Southern W 75-50
D14 Jacksonville W 79-34
D20 vs. Wake Forest W 63-50
D30 at Florida State L 63-65
J3 UConn L 59-63
J7 at South Carolina W 72-68
J10 Mississippi State W 72-47
J15 Auburn W 75-55
J17 at Georgia L 61-73
J20 LSU L 61-79
J24 at Ole Miss L 71-72
J27 at Alabama W 52-50
J31 RV/#25 Arkansas W 57-56
F3 at Vanderbilt L 61-67
F7 #1 Kentucky L 61-68
F12 Ole Miss L 61-62
F14 at Texas A&M L 62-63
F18 Vanderbilt W 50-47
F21 at LSU L 63-70
F24 at Missouri L 52-64
F28 Tennessee W 66-49
M3 Texas A&M W 66-62
Probable Starters
C #21 Jon Horford 6-10 245 Sr. 6.4pts, 4.9reb, .250 3pt
F #30 Jacob Kurtz 6-6 210 Sr. 4.3pts, 3.8reb, 1.0ast, no 3pt threat
G #1 Eli Carter 6-2 200 Jr. 8.8pts, 2.0reb, 1.9ast, .297 3pt
G #0 Kasey Hill 6-1 182 So. 7.0pts, 2.4reb, 4.7ast, .276 3pt
G #11 Chris Chiozza 6-0 160 Fr. 4.1pts, 2.1reb, 2.1ast, .317 3pt
Bench
G #20 Michael Frazier II 6-4 194 Jr. 13.2pts, 4.6reb, 1.6ast, .401 3pt
F #10 Dorian Finney-Smith 6-8 218 Jr. 13.1pts, 6.0reb, 1.6ast, .426 3pt
F #3 Devin Robinson 6-8 178 Fr. 6.6pts, 2.9reb, .253 3pt
F #5 Alex Murphy 6-8 225 Jr. 5.2pts, 1.8reb, .200 3pt
F #23 Chris Walker 6-10 220 So. 5.0pts, 3.4reb, no 3pt threat
Team Stats
Scoring Offense 64.4
Scoring Defense 59.7
Scoring Margin +4.8
Field Goal Pct. .436
Field Goal Pct. Def. .406
3-Pt. FG Pct. .324
3-Pt. FG Pct. Def. .329
3-Pt. FG Made 6.7
3-Pt. FG Allowed 5.4
Free Throw Pct. .635
Rebounds 33.4
Opp. Rebounds 32.1
Rebounding Margin +1.2
Assists 13.3
Turnovers 12.5
Opp. Turnovers 14.3
Turnover Margin +1.8
Assist/TO Ratio 1.1
Steals 7.4
Blocked Shots 3.7
Analysis:
Florida comes into this game coming off straight home wins which were 2 of their better wins on the season, over TX A&M and Tennessee. They're 3-4 since the loss to UK back on February 7. Those wins and losses have pretty much been split home and away, with 3 homes wins, 3 away losses, plus the home loss to Ole Miss. It should be noted that the Gators have been playing since the UK game without leading scorer and leading 3pt shooter Michael Frazier II. They have missed his scoring output badly. I read a short article today that said Frazier practiced Thursday and would travel with the team to Kentucky Friday for the game. The same article said Florida is hopeful Frazier will play against UK. ESPN is scrolling tonight that Frazier is expected to play.
When you look at Florida this season, I think you have ask why they've struggled as they have. Clearly, the national media expected Florida to have another good season, despite losing multi-year starters Scottie Wilbekin, Casey Prather, Will Yeguette, and Patric Young. It seems difficult to be able to go on without skipping a beat while replacing 4 senior starters, and that has proven to be a much greater obstacle than anyone might have thought. The idea for Donovan was that he had a dominant NBA-type center in Chris Walker and multiple transfers waiting in the wings who would step in immediately and give good minutes and production. Eli Carter was coming from Rutgers. Alex Murphy was coming from Duke. Jon Horford was coming from Michigan as a grad transfer. John Egbunu was coming from South Florida. Finney Smith, the transfer from Va tech was already in the fold and contributing. Add all these to returning starter Michael Frazier and phenom pg Kasey Hill and it seemed a recipe for success. Well, it's been a recipe for a disaster, with the team sitting at .500 on the season and needing several more wins to get an NIT invite. CBI is more likely.
Let's be honest here. Chris Walker has got to be the biggest disappointment for a 5-star, top 10 recruit in recent memory. Many thought he'd take Young's starting job last season, but then he had some eligibility issues that kept him out for half the season. When he became eligible, he was expected to come in and dominate, but that never happened. He looked more like a project that an NBA lottery pick. But the excuse was that he just didn't have a full season and he wasn't going to be as effective as the senior Patric Young, but this season would be different. Well, that just hasn't materialized. He's averaging only 15 minutes per game, under that in SEC play. He's only scoring 5 points and grabbing 3 rebounds per game for the season. The other issue I have with Donovan's approach is all these transfers. I'm sure Walker isn't the poster boy for getting a guy straight from high school but the 4 guys that left last season should be. My opinion is that the transfers short-cut has backfired on Donovan. There is a reason guys transfer from places like Michigan, Duke, and Rutgers, and it's not usually because they were so dominant that they just wanted to leave and help Florida win a title. It's usually because they couldn't cut it. Well, surprise, surprise, they're still not cutting it.
It's good for Florida Frazier will be available for Florida tomorrow, but I doubt he will start. He hasn't been able to play a single minute of live action since the UK game a month ago, so it's doubtful he will start. Stranger things have happened, though, and Rupp Arena has brought the best out of many a player. The Florida offense begins with Kasey Hill, without a doubt. He stirs the drink, so to speak, and he was WAY too successful at getting into the lane against UK the first time around. He seemed to get in there at will. In fact, though Hill doesn't score many points, his game against UK the first time around was one of his best on the season. He finished with 12pts on 5-11 shooting, with 6 assists against only 1 turnover. In my opinion, he was the reason they were able to stay in the game in the second half without Frazier. His greatest weapon is his quickness, ball handling, and ability to get into the paint and dish. The guy who will likely start at shooting guard tomorrow is Eli Carter, the 6-2 200lb Rutgers transfer. He's a strong guard who has struggled a bit on the season but has been coming on a bit since the loss of Frazier. He scored a season high 22 at TX A&M in a loss and has scored in double figures in 7 of Florida's last 11 games. He is a streaky shooter, but if he gets going he can hurt you. The other guy who will likely comprise Florida's 3-guard line-up is freshman Chris Chiozza. He's a 6-0 freshman guard who has been starting because he's smart and he takes care of the ball. He has also been coming on as the season has progressed. He doesn't score much but he's a good competitor, is a 3pt threat and can distribute the ball pretty well.
In the frontcourt, it's not Walker and Finney-Smith out of the gate. It will be Horford and Kurtz. Jon Horford is the Michigan graduate transfer. He has good size at 6-10 245 and is decent defensively, but he lacks the size to be very effective against UK. He only went 1-4 last time around while managing only 2 rebounds. Jacob Kurtz Is a 6-6 senior who was a former walk-on and water boy if I'm not mistaken. The fact that he has started 5 games for the Gators this season speaks volumes. Yes, Finney Smith was out for 3 straight games and just returned for the last 2, but Kurtz has still been the starter and has played significant minutes in every game, including 21 minutes against Tennessee just last week. Kurtz won't wow you but he's fundamentally sound. He will box you out. He will defend. He doesn't make dumb mistakes. That's why he plays. The guys with greater athleticism don't do those things. That's why Kurtz may start.
Ok, let's not kid ourselves, if Florida is going to have a shot to knock off UK at Rupp Arena with a perfect regular season on the line, it's not gonna be done by these starters. Florida needs Chris Walker, Dorian Finney Smith, Kasey Hill, and Michael Frazier to step up and play big. If they don't, these other guys won't be able to get it done. That's just a fact. Those other guys are solid D1 role players but they're not athletic enough and skilled enough to beat Kentucky.
If there is one thing Florida has been doing better as the season has progressed, it's play defense. They have become much better defensively in the last half of the season, and that's actually much of the reason the guys who are starting have been getting playing time. Last time around, Florida played UK very well on the defensive end. The Cats shot 47% from the field but only made 3-14 from 3pt range. UK had 12 assists but finished with 15 turnovers. Florida extended that zone and forced UK to put the ball on the floor instead of taking uncontested threes. Kentucky took it inside and ended up hitting 21-22 foul shots in the game, which is the reason the Cats won. UK was without Lyles in that game and Florida was without Frazier for most of the second half. The Gators slowed the game down and made it a possession game.
I expect Florida's gameplan to be very similar to what it was the first time around. They will focus on defensive intensity and I fully expect them to come out ready to play, even though they have little left to play for this season aside from pride. They will be physical. They will contest every shot if possible. Offensively, they're going to slow it down, run the clock, and put the ball in Kasey Hill's hands as the clock winds down and tell him to drive, drive, drive. If the Cats aren't able to stop his penetration, I think the Gators can play with UK for a while. But the Gators aren't the same team on the road as they've been at home this season, and it's really not close. The question really becomes how focused and ready to play will UK be? Will they play tight with 31-0 on the line? Will they come out with intensity and effort on the defensive end? That's the key, in my opinion. If the Cats come out with great defensive effort, they will win going away. Vegas opened with UK-16 and has dropped to -15.5 since. I think bettors are thinking UK may take Florida lightly. Kenpom predicts a 67-52 win. I say Kentucky may be taking Florida lightly and lets the Gators stay in it a while. However, UK will go on a run at some point and the Gators aren't good on the road. Kentucky 71 Florida 54
Scouting Florida on BigBlueTheory
Head Coach: Billy Donovan
Record: 15-15
SEC Record: 8-9
Away Record: 2-8 SEC: 2-6
Florida under Donovan @ Rupp: 4-14
Last visit: 2/15/14 Florida 69 UK 59
Schedule
N14 William & Mary W 68-45
N17 Miami L 67-69
N21 Louisiana-Monroe W/OT 61-56
N26 vs. Georgetown L/OT 66-65
N27 vs. UAB W 56-47
N28 vs. #5/6 No. Carolina L 64-75
D5 at #11 Kansas L 65-71
D8 Yale W 85-47
D12 Texas Southern W 75-50
D14 Jacksonville W 79-34
D20 vs. Wake Forest W 63-50
D30 at Florida State L 63-65
J3 UConn L 59-63
J7 at South Carolina W 72-68
J10 Mississippi State W 72-47
J15 Auburn W 75-55
J17 at Georgia L 61-73
J20 LSU L 61-79
J24 at Ole Miss L 71-72
J27 at Alabama W 52-50
J31 RV/#25 Arkansas W 57-56
F3 at Vanderbilt L 61-67
F7 #1 Kentucky L 61-68
F12 Ole Miss L 61-62
F14 at Texas A&M L 62-63
F18 Vanderbilt W 50-47
F21 at LSU L 63-70
F24 at Missouri L 52-64
F28 Tennessee W 66-49
M3 Texas A&M W 66-62
Probable Starters
C #21 Jon Horford 6-10 245 Sr. 6.4pts, 4.9reb, .250 3pt
F #30 Jacob Kurtz 6-6 210 Sr. 4.3pts, 3.8reb, 1.0ast, no 3pt threat
G #1 Eli Carter 6-2 200 Jr. 8.8pts, 2.0reb, 1.9ast, .297 3pt
G #0 Kasey Hill 6-1 182 So. 7.0pts, 2.4reb, 4.7ast, .276 3pt
G #11 Chris Chiozza 6-0 160 Fr. 4.1pts, 2.1reb, 2.1ast, .317 3pt
Bench
G #20 Michael Frazier II 6-4 194 Jr. 13.2pts, 4.6reb, 1.6ast, .401 3pt
F #10 Dorian Finney-Smith 6-8 218 Jr. 13.1pts, 6.0reb, 1.6ast, .426 3pt
F #3 Devin Robinson 6-8 178 Fr. 6.6pts, 2.9reb, .253 3pt
F #5 Alex Murphy 6-8 225 Jr. 5.2pts, 1.8reb, .200 3pt
F #23 Chris Walker 6-10 220 So. 5.0pts, 3.4reb, no 3pt threat
Team Stats
Scoring Offense 64.4
Scoring Defense 59.7
Scoring Margin +4.8
Field Goal Pct. .436
Field Goal Pct. Def. .406
3-Pt. FG Pct. .324
3-Pt. FG Pct. Def. .329
3-Pt. FG Made 6.7
3-Pt. FG Allowed 5.4
Free Throw Pct. .635
Rebounds 33.4
Opp. Rebounds 32.1
Rebounding Margin +1.2
Assists 13.3
Turnovers 12.5
Opp. Turnovers 14.3
Turnover Margin +1.8
Assist/TO Ratio 1.1
Steals 7.4
Blocked Shots 3.7
Analysis:
Florida comes into this game coming off straight home wins which were 2 of their better wins on the season, over TX A&M and Tennessee. They're 3-4 since the loss to UK back on February 7. Those wins and losses have pretty much been split home and away, with 3 homes wins, 3 away losses, plus the home loss to Ole Miss. It should be noted that the Gators have been playing since the UK game without leading scorer and leading 3pt shooter Michael Frazier II. They have missed his scoring output badly. I read a short article today that said Frazier practiced Thursday and would travel with the team to Kentucky Friday for the game. The same article said Florida is hopeful Frazier will play against UK. ESPN is scrolling tonight that Frazier is expected to play.
When you look at Florida this season, I think you have ask why they've struggled as they have. Clearly, the national media expected Florida to have another good season, despite losing multi-year starters Scottie Wilbekin, Casey Prather, Will Yeguette, and Patric Young. It seems difficult to be able to go on without skipping a beat while replacing 4 senior starters, and that has proven to be a much greater obstacle than anyone might have thought. The idea for Donovan was that he had a dominant NBA-type center in Chris Walker and multiple transfers waiting in the wings who would step in immediately and give good minutes and production. Eli Carter was coming from Rutgers. Alex Murphy was coming from Duke. Jon Horford was coming from Michigan as a grad transfer. John Egbunu was coming from South Florida. Finney Smith, the transfer from Va tech was already in the fold and contributing. Add all these to returning starter Michael Frazier and phenom pg Kasey Hill and it seemed a recipe for success. Well, it's been a recipe for a disaster, with the team sitting at .500 on the season and needing several more wins to get an NIT invite. CBI is more likely.
Let's be honest here. Chris Walker has got to be the biggest disappointment for a 5-star, top 10 recruit in recent memory. Many thought he'd take Young's starting job last season, but then he had some eligibility issues that kept him out for half the season. When he became eligible, he was expected to come in and dominate, but that never happened. He looked more like a project that an NBA lottery pick. But the excuse was that he just didn't have a full season and he wasn't going to be as effective as the senior Patric Young, but this season would be different. Well, that just hasn't materialized. He's averaging only 15 minutes per game, under that in SEC play. He's only scoring 5 points and grabbing 3 rebounds per game for the season. The other issue I have with Donovan's approach is all these transfers. I'm sure Walker isn't the poster boy for getting a guy straight from high school but the 4 guys that left last season should be. My opinion is that the transfers short-cut has backfired on Donovan. There is a reason guys transfer from places like Michigan, Duke, and Rutgers, and it's not usually because they were so dominant that they just wanted to leave and help Florida win a title. It's usually because they couldn't cut it. Well, surprise, surprise, they're still not cutting it.
It's good for Florida Frazier will be available for Florida tomorrow, but I doubt he will start. He hasn't been able to play a single minute of live action since the UK game a month ago, so it's doubtful he will start. Stranger things have happened, though, and Rupp Arena has brought the best out of many a player. The Florida offense begins with Kasey Hill, without a doubt. He stirs the drink, so to speak, and he was WAY too successful at getting into the lane against UK the first time around. He seemed to get in there at will. In fact, though Hill doesn't score many points, his game against UK the first time around was one of his best on the season. He finished with 12pts on 5-11 shooting, with 6 assists against only 1 turnover. In my opinion, he was the reason they were able to stay in the game in the second half without Frazier. His greatest weapon is his quickness, ball handling, and ability to get into the paint and dish. The guy who will likely start at shooting guard tomorrow is Eli Carter, the 6-2 200lb Rutgers transfer. He's a strong guard who has struggled a bit on the season but has been coming on a bit since the loss of Frazier. He scored a season high 22 at TX A&M in a loss and has scored in double figures in 7 of Florida's last 11 games. He is a streaky shooter, but if he gets going he can hurt you. The other guy who will likely comprise Florida's 3-guard line-up is freshman Chris Chiozza. He's a 6-0 freshman guard who has been starting because he's smart and he takes care of the ball. He has also been coming on as the season has progressed. He doesn't score much but he's a good competitor, is a 3pt threat and can distribute the ball pretty well.
In the frontcourt, it's not Walker and Finney-Smith out of the gate. It will be Horford and Kurtz. Jon Horford is the Michigan graduate transfer. He has good size at 6-10 245 and is decent defensively, but he lacks the size to be very effective against UK. He only went 1-4 last time around while managing only 2 rebounds. Jacob Kurtz Is a 6-6 senior who was a former walk-on and water boy if I'm not mistaken. The fact that he has started 5 games for the Gators this season speaks volumes. Yes, Finney Smith was out for 3 straight games and just returned for the last 2, but Kurtz has still been the starter and has played significant minutes in every game, including 21 minutes against Tennessee just last week. Kurtz won't wow you but he's fundamentally sound. He will box you out. He will defend. He doesn't make dumb mistakes. That's why he plays. The guys with greater athleticism don't do those things. That's why Kurtz may start.
Ok, let's not kid ourselves, if Florida is going to have a shot to knock off UK at Rupp Arena with a perfect regular season on the line, it's not gonna be done by these starters. Florida needs Chris Walker, Dorian Finney Smith, Kasey Hill, and Michael Frazier to step up and play big. If they don't, these other guys won't be able to get it done. That's just a fact. Those other guys are solid D1 role players but they're not athletic enough and skilled enough to beat Kentucky.
If there is one thing Florida has been doing better as the season has progressed, it's play defense. They have become much better defensively in the last half of the season, and that's actually much of the reason the guys who are starting have been getting playing time. Last time around, Florida played UK very well on the defensive end. The Cats shot 47% from the field but only made 3-14 from 3pt range. UK had 12 assists but finished with 15 turnovers. Florida extended that zone and forced UK to put the ball on the floor instead of taking uncontested threes. Kentucky took it inside and ended up hitting 21-22 foul shots in the game, which is the reason the Cats won. UK was without Lyles in that game and Florida was without Frazier for most of the second half. The Gators slowed the game down and made it a possession game.
I expect Florida's gameplan to be very similar to what it was the first time around. They will focus on defensive intensity and I fully expect them to come out ready to play, even though they have little left to play for this season aside from pride. They will be physical. They will contest every shot if possible. Offensively, they're going to slow it down, run the clock, and put the ball in Kasey Hill's hands as the clock winds down and tell him to drive, drive, drive. If the Cats aren't able to stop his penetration, I think the Gators can play with UK for a while. But the Gators aren't the same team on the road as they've been at home this season, and it's really not close. The question really becomes how focused and ready to play will UK be? Will they play tight with 31-0 on the line? Will they come out with intensity and effort on the defensive end? That's the key, in my opinion. If the Cats come out with great defensive effort, they will win going away. Vegas opened with UK-16 and has dropped to -15.5 since. I think bettors are thinking UK may take Florida lightly. Kenpom predicts a 67-52 win. I say Kentucky may be taking Florida lightly and lets the Gators stay in it a while. However, UK will go on a run at some point and the Gators aren't good on the road. Kentucky 71 Florida 54
Scouting Florida on BigBlueTheory
