South Carolina Gamecocks
Head Coach: Frank Martin
Record: 10-7
Conference: 1-4
Home: 7-3
Schedule
11/14/14 UNF W 81-56 10473
11/18/14 BAYLOR L 65-69 13291
& 11/20/14 vs Cornell W 69-45 2517
& 11/21/14 vs Charlotte L 63-65 2430
& 11/23/14 vs Akron L 63-68 1523
11/26/14 UNC ASHEVILLE W 89-75 8330
12/1/14 at Marshall W 77-59 5013
12/6/14 OKLAHOMA STATE W 75-49 12007
12/19/14 CLEMSON W 68-45 11992
12/21/14 COKER W 78-52 8419
12/30/14 NORTH CAROLINA A&T W 91-54 8156
01/03/15 vs Iowa State W 64-60 3546
* 1/7/14 FLORIDA L 68-72 12181
* 01-10-15 at Ole Miss L 49-65 6714
* 1/13/14 ALABAMA W 68-66 11085
* 01/17/15 at Auburn L 68-71 9121
* 1/20/14 TENNESSEE L 62-66 12032
&=games played in Charleston, SC
*=conference games
Probable Starters
G Duane Notice 6-2 221 So, 11.9pts, 2.6reb, 2.8ast, .420fg, .778ft, .347 3fg
G Sindarius Thornwell 6-5 215 So 11.1pts, 5.3reb, 1.8 ast, 1.5 steals, .353fg, .707ft, .227 3fg
G Tyrone Johnson 6-3 196 Sr 10.4pts, 2.9reb, 3.8ast, 1.5steals, .411fg, .818ft, .286 3fg
F Laimonas Chatkevicius 6-11 250 Jr 9.2pts, 5.3reb, .589fg, .731ft, .417 3fg
F/C Demetrius Henry 6-9 227 So, 6.9pts, 4.0reb, 1.1blocks, .511fg, .636ft, .000 3fg
Bench
F Mindaugas Kacinas 6-7 228 Jr, 6.9pts, 5.6reb, .618fg, .794ft, .429 3fg
F Michael Carrera 6-5 212 Jr, 5.5pts, 4.6reb, .441fg, .724ft, .500 3fg
G Marcus Stroman 6-2 185 Fr, 4.7pts, 3.1reb, 3.8ast, .409fg, .585ft, .200 3fg
G Justin McKie 6-4 196 So, 4.2pts, 1.9reb, .364fg, .789ft, .276 3fg
Team Stats
Points per game 70.5
Points allowed 61.0
Scoring margin +9.5
Field goal pct .442
FG% defense .366
3-point FG pct .300
3pt Defense .309
3-pt FG made per game 4.8
3-pt FG allowed 6.4
Free throw pct .730
Rebounds per game 38.5
Rebounds allowed 32.1
Rebounding margin +6.4
Assists per game 14.6
Turnovers per game 14.1
Turnover margin +1.5
Assist/turnover ratio 1.0
Steals per game 7.1
Blocks per game 4.9
Analysis
South Carolina is a tough team to nail down because they have been inconsistent and unable to finish games well this season. Those early season losses to Charlotte and Akron hurt a lot, and that loss to Auburn doesn't help their chances at making the NCAA-T. But they also have several good wins this year and a bunch of close losses that could have gone either way. The 26 point win over Ok State is impressive. The Iowa State win on a neutral court is a big win for them as well. Dominating Clemson looks pretty good, even if the Tigers aren't a great team. In the SEC, they've struggled big time in closing games out, both home and away. But it's important to note with this Gamecock team that they've only lost one game by more than 6 points all season, the 16pt whipping at Ole Miss. So, their 7 losses are a bit deceptive. 6 of those 7 losses have come by a combined 22 pts. Despite their 7 losses, kenpom still rates them #48 overall. It should also be noted that this game is yet another sell-out and SC kept ticket sales closed to the public until just this week. So, Columbia will be rocking for a noon EST start time Saturday, televise by ESPN.
Looking at for South Carolina, I'll tell you why the scare me a bit. They are very strong at the guard spots, and they are very quick as well. They play similarly to TX A&M in many ways, actually. They don't jack up a bunch of threes, but they want to drive the lane and score as much as possible. They will drive, drive, and then drive some more. 72% of their shot attempts are inside the arc. One of the main reasons they don't take a bunch of three-pt shots is because they're not a great perimeter shooting team. They shoot only 30% from 3pt range.
They are guard-heavy when it comes to their scoring. Their top 3 scorers are all guards. Duane Notice is a 6-2 221 (not a misprint) guard who might have made a good middle linebacker had he not chosen basketball. He's a bulldog on the floor and his strength causes opposing guards trouble. It also allows him to get shots off and finish through contact. He's one of their most dangerous 3pt threats as well, leading the team in both attempts and makes and shooting 35% from deep. Sindari Thornwell is second on the team in scoring and plays the 3 spot for the Gamecocks. He's struggled shooting the 3 thus far this season, coming in at under 23%. But he's also a slasher and isn't afraid to shoot the ball. He leads the team in shot attempts, but he's not very efficient. He forces the action quite a bit, but he does get to the foul line more than any other SC player by a large margin. The point guard of the team is senior Tyrone Johnson. He's probably more like a combo guard or a lead guard than a true point guard. He's another guy who prefers to drive and score or dish. He leads the team in assists and has a 2:1 a/to ratio. All 3 of these guards are excellent at forcing turnovers and have 67 steals between them. SC is only allowing 36% from the floor and 31% from 3 as a team, and much of that has to do with their guard play.
In the frontcourt, South Carolina's most dangerous player is Chatkevicius. We've seen him before. He can step out and shoot the three but he's been staying inside more this season than in past years. He's an excellent shooter with a fg% of almost 59% and he can score with either hand around the basket. He's a typical Euro-style big man who prefers to play facing the basket. His frontcourt mate, Demetrius Henry, is more a prototypical college big man. He's a 6-9 227 guy who brings energy and intensity on the inside. He's not a huge scorer. Most of his points come from wide open dunks or put backs, but he is a decent defender, which is why he gets the starts over SC's top bench player, another Euro guy, Mindaugas Kacinas. The 6-7 228 Kacinas actually leads the team in rebounding from the bench. He plays the 4 and the 5 and averages 21 minutes per game. He doesn't shoot much but he's very efficient. He can step out and hit the 3 and shoots free throws very well.
Other than Kacinas, the bench also includes Michael Carrera, a guy who has seemed to play well against UK, especially in Columbia. He's a 6-5 forward who is a glue guy for the Gamecocks. He defends well and scraps all over the floor. He's been relegated to the bench in recent weeks after getting some starts earlier in the year and an injury forced him to sit out a few games and he lost his starting job to Chatkevicius. SC also has Marcus Stroman coming off the bench as a point guard and he actually is second on the team in assists. He's not as good a shooter as Tyrone Johnson, but he's likely more of a pure point guard. He's also an excellent defender, along with the rest of SC's guards. Justin McKie is the last guy who gets double digit minutes and has played in most games. He likes the shoot the 3 when he's in, though he's not a great shooter. Still, over half his fg attempts are from 3pt range. He has good size for their guards, at 6-4, and can play either wing.
This is going to be a tough game for UK in my opinion. We all know SC has had this ame circled for some time, which likely led to the last 2 losses in games they should have won at Auburn and hosting Tennessee. I'm sure we're going to get the Oklahoma St and Iowa State version of South Carolina, not the Akron and Charlotte version. They will press us all over the floor. They will trap, they will gang rebound, they will slap, hold, grab, and anything else they can to win. Thanks to their inability to finish games this year, they've put themselves in a tough spot. And that 1-4 SEC record has them desperate for a win. This game could make their season. If they win, they'll rush the floor, no doubt. They will play with more energy than any other game this season because of the opponent and the crowd and Martin's teams thrive on energy.
Having said all of this, I think our Cats, especially our returning Cats, know what to expect in this game. They know what the atmosphere will be. They know they lost this game last season and it could happen again. For this reason, I expect our Cats to come ready to play in this one. I expect our defense will be stifling. I also expect that SC's full-court pressure (and they may have to switch to a sagging zone) may lead to some easy scoring for the Cats. If we match their intensity, the Cats will win, but it won't be by a huge margin I don't think. I'm expecting a game within 10 points for a final margin. Kentucky 68 SC 61
Head Coach: Frank Martin
Record: 10-7
Conference: 1-4
Home: 7-3
Schedule
11/14/14 UNF W 81-56 10473
11/18/14 BAYLOR L 65-69 13291
& 11/20/14 vs Cornell W 69-45 2517
& 11/21/14 vs Charlotte L 63-65 2430
& 11/23/14 vs Akron L 63-68 1523
11/26/14 UNC ASHEVILLE W 89-75 8330
12/1/14 at Marshall W 77-59 5013
12/6/14 OKLAHOMA STATE W 75-49 12007
12/19/14 CLEMSON W 68-45 11992
12/21/14 COKER W 78-52 8419
12/30/14 NORTH CAROLINA A&T W 91-54 8156
01/03/15 vs Iowa State W 64-60 3546
* 1/7/14 FLORIDA L 68-72 12181
* 01-10-15 at Ole Miss L 49-65 6714
* 1/13/14 ALABAMA W 68-66 11085
* 01/17/15 at Auburn L 68-71 9121
* 1/20/14 TENNESSEE L 62-66 12032
&=games played in Charleston, SC
*=conference games
Probable Starters
G Duane Notice 6-2 221 So, 11.9pts, 2.6reb, 2.8ast, .420fg, .778ft, .347 3fg
G Sindarius Thornwell 6-5 215 So 11.1pts, 5.3reb, 1.8 ast, 1.5 steals, .353fg, .707ft, .227 3fg
G Tyrone Johnson 6-3 196 Sr 10.4pts, 2.9reb, 3.8ast, 1.5steals, .411fg, .818ft, .286 3fg
F Laimonas Chatkevicius 6-11 250 Jr 9.2pts, 5.3reb, .589fg, .731ft, .417 3fg
F/C Demetrius Henry 6-9 227 So, 6.9pts, 4.0reb, 1.1blocks, .511fg, .636ft, .000 3fg
Bench
F Mindaugas Kacinas 6-7 228 Jr, 6.9pts, 5.6reb, .618fg, .794ft, .429 3fg
F Michael Carrera 6-5 212 Jr, 5.5pts, 4.6reb, .441fg, .724ft, .500 3fg
G Marcus Stroman 6-2 185 Fr, 4.7pts, 3.1reb, 3.8ast, .409fg, .585ft, .200 3fg
G Justin McKie 6-4 196 So, 4.2pts, 1.9reb, .364fg, .789ft, .276 3fg
Team Stats
Points per game 70.5
Points allowed 61.0
Scoring margin +9.5
Field goal pct .442
FG% defense .366
3-point FG pct .300
3pt Defense .309
3-pt FG made per game 4.8
3-pt FG allowed 6.4
Free throw pct .730
Rebounds per game 38.5
Rebounds allowed 32.1
Rebounding margin +6.4
Assists per game 14.6
Turnovers per game 14.1
Turnover margin +1.5
Assist/turnover ratio 1.0
Steals per game 7.1
Blocks per game 4.9
Analysis
South Carolina is a tough team to nail down because they have been inconsistent and unable to finish games well this season. Those early season losses to Charlotte and Akron hurt a lot, and that loss to Auburn doesn't help their chances at making the NCAA-T. But they also have several good wins this year and a bunch of close losses that could have gone either way. The 26 point win over Ok State is impressive. The Iowa State win on a neutral court is a big win for them as well. Dominating Clemson looks pretty good, even if the Tigers aren't a great team. In the SEC, they've struggled big time in closing games out, both home and away. But it's important to note with this Gamecock team that they've only lost one game by more than 6 points all season, the 16pt whipping at Ole Miss. So, their 7 losses are a bit deceptive. 6 of those 7 losses have come by a combined 22 pts. Despite their 7 losses, kenpom still rates them #48 overall. It should also be noted that this game is yet another sell-out and SC kept ticket sales closed to the public until just this week. So, Columbia will be rocking for a noon EST start time Saturday, televise by ESPN.
Looking at for South Carolina, I'll tell you why the scare me a bit. They are very strong at the guard spots, and they are very quick as well. They play similarly to TX A&M in many ways, actually. They don't jack up a bunch of threes, but they want to drive the lane and score as much as possible. They will drive, drive, and then drive some more. 72% of their shot attempts are inside the arc. One of the main reasons they don't take a bunch of three-pt shots is because they're not a great perimeter shooting team. They shoot only 30% from 3pt range.
They are guard-heavy when it comes to their scoring. Their top 3 scorers are all guards. Duane Notice is a 6-2 221 (not a misprint) guard who might have made a good middle linebacker had he not chosen basketball. He's a bulldog on the floor and his strength causes opposing guards trouble. It also allows him to get shots off and finish through contact. He's one of their most dangerous 3pt threats as well, leading the team in both attempts and makes and shooting 35% from deep. Sindari Thornwell is second on the team in scoring and plays the 3 spot for the Gamecocks. He's struggled shooting the 3 thus far this season, coming in at under 23%. But he's also a slasher and isn't afraid to shoot the ball. He leads the team in shot attempts, but he's not very efficient. He forces the action quite a bit, but he does get to the foul line more than any other SC player by a large margin. The point guard of the team is senior Tyrone Johnson. He's probably more like a combo guard or a lead guard than a true point guard. He's another guy who prefers to drive and score or dish. He leads the team in assists and has a 2:1 a/to ratio. All 3 of these guards are excellent at forcing turnovers and have 67 steals between them. SC is only allowing 36% from the floor and 31% from 3 as a team, and much of that has to do with their guard play.
In the frontcourt, South Carolina's most dangerous player is Chatkevicius. We've seen him before. He can step out and shoot the three but he's been staying inside more this season than in past years. He's an excellent shooter with a fg% of almost 59% and he can score with either hand around the basket. He's a typical Euro-style big man who prefers to play facing the basket. His frontcourt mate, Demetrius Henry, is more a prototypical college big man. He's a 6-9 227 guy who brings energy and intensity on the inside. He's not a huge scorer. Most of his points come from wide open dunks or put backs, but he is a decent defender, which is why he gets the starts over SC's top bench player, another Euro guy, Mindaugas Kacinas. The 6-7 228 Kacinas actually leads the team in rebounding from the bench. He plays the 4 and the 5 and averages 21 minutes per game. He doesn't shoot much but he's very efficient. He can step out and hit the 3 and shoots free throws very well.
Other than Kacinas, the bench also includes Michael Carrera, a guy who has seemed to play well against UK, especially in Columbia. He's a 6-5 forward who is a glue guy for the Gamecocks. He defends well and scraps all over the floor. He's been relegated to the bench in recent weeks after getting some starts earlier in the year and an injury forced him to sit out a few games and he lost his starting job to Chatkevicius. SC also has Marcus Stroman coming off the bench as a point guard and he actually is second on the team in assists. He's not as good a shooter as Tyrone Johnson, but he's likely more of a pure point guard. He's also an excellent defender, along with the rest of SC's guards. Justin McKie is the last guy who gets double digit minutes and has played in most games. He likes the shoot the 3 when he's in, though he's not a great shooter. Still, over half his fg attempts are from 3pt range. He has good size for their guards, at 6-4, and can play either wing.
This is going to be a tough game for UK in my opinion. We all know SC has had this ame circled for some time, which likely led to the last 2 losses in games they should have won at Auburn and hosting Tennessee. I'm sure we're going to get the Oklahoma St and Iowa State version of South Carolina, not the Akron and Charlotte version. They will press us all over the floor. They will trap, they will gang rebound, they will slap, hold, grab, and anything else they can to win. Thanks to their inability to finish games this year, they've put themselves in a tough spot. And that 1-4 SEC record has them desperate for a win. This game could make their season. If they win, they'll rush the floor, no doubt. They will play with more energy than any other game this season because of the opponent and the crowd and Martin's teams thrive on energy.
Having said all of this, I think our Cats, especially our returning Cats, know what to expect in this game. They know what the atmosphere will be. They know they lost this game last season and it could happen again. For this reason, I expect our Cats to come ready to play in this one. I expect our defense will be stifling. I also expect that SC's full-court pressure (and they may have to switch to a sagging zone) may lead to some easy scoring for the Cats. If we match their intensity, the Cats will win, but it won't be by a huge margin I don't think. I'm expecting a game within 10 points for a final margin. Kentucky 68 SC 61