Selection Process/Committee

[texcane1982]

Dr. Jay Coleman, co-author of the "Dance Card", has TU right below the cut-line, but with a 96% chance of making the field. While Jerry Palm is the only mainstream Bracketologist to include TU, "The Dance Card" appears to favor TU much more based on historical Committee decisions with regards to historical at-large bids with a similar resume.



If you're unfimilar with the "Dance Card", it is basically analytic predictive software based on 15+ years of at-large bids awarded by the Selection Committee.



The formula has correctly predicted 108 of 110 at-large bids over the last three years combined (98%).



His updated version of this software takes account of conference-related bias, and correctly predicted 329 of 341 (96.5%) at-large bids between 1999-2008. In years when the Committee had AD's or Commissioners from a particular conference-relation, that conference saw a noticeable bias toward teams on the bubble.


The 2014-15 NCAA men's basketball tournament selection committee is chaired by Utah State AD Scott Barnes, and his Vice Chairman is OU AD Joe Castiglione.



Here is the rest of the Committee..........


LSU AD Joe Alleva
Michigan State AD Mark Hollis
Conference USA associate commissioner Judy MacLeod
Creighton AD Bruce Rasmussen
Northeastern AD Peter Roby
UNC-Asheville AD Janet Cone
Stanford AD Bernard Muir
BYU AD Tom Holmoe

While the AAC has zero presence on this years Committee, might Judy, Bruce Rasmussen, and Joe Castigilione show some favoritism for TU?

I certainly would not expect Joe C. to pimp TU over Texas, but one can reasonable assume knowing Joe C. is the Vice Chairmain might be the reason Joe Lunardi moved Texas from "First 4 in" to "Last 4 Byes", despite their last second loss to Iowa State. Texas did control much of the game if the "eye test" has any weight.

If you haven't done so already, I recommend watching the video on his website about the "Dance Card", it is very interesting.


http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm - "Dance Card"


We all know TU's best bet is to keep winning, but I found this information to be rather interesting as it takes into account real historical data, and what present day teams have already accomplished, not some talking-head with a bad hairpiece opinion.




TX




This post was edited on 3/14 1:36 AM by texcane1982

2014-15 Selection Committee

 

[texcane1982]

One thing is certain, Cincy losing to UConn hurts TU's chance to improve their odds as TU misses out on a chance top play another Top 50 RPI opponent. So if you take the "Dance Card" at face value, TU cannot improve it's at-large chances, however TU should be thoroughly examined by the Committee based on historical selections.

The "Dance Card" is rarely 100% accurate and a team like Miami who was ousted in their tourney quarterfinals, has an RPI of 54, and was average in conference play could find themselves on the outside. How teams fair in conference play and their RPI rating is used for comparative measures. Another issue facing Miami is no representation from the ACC on the Committe.

TU's next opportunity to pickup another Top 50 RPI win would be in the championship game, at which point the at-large discussion becomes moot.


TX

This post was edited on 3/14 2:00 AM by texcane1982

 

[drboobay]

Joe Lunardi is so visible right now it is hard to discern another view of what might actually occur in the committee room. I was looking at teams like Colorado State, BYU and a few others around the cut and objectively we look good in comparison. I also don't get the discounting of 2 wins against Temple. The way Lunardi talks those games somehow don't count.
Posted from Rivals Mobile

 

[Weatherdemon]

Dance Card has Tulsa in this am.

Let's win today and make it even more difficult to be left out.

 

[TUBballJunkie]

Originally posted by drboobay:
Joe Lunardi is so visible right now it is hard to discern another view of what might actually occur in the committee room.

So true and so damn irritating.

 

[Gold*]

If we win, Lunardi will still have us out. It's like ESPN made an editorial decision. The unbalanced schedule argument is my favorite. Yeah, we only played Cinci once. But we only got UCF once, too.

 

[PhoggyBottom]

The problem isn't some sort of bias. The two problems are very simple and very obvious. One, TU has only 8 top 150 RPI wins and the only real wins of note are against Temple. Two, TU has 2 absolutely horrible losses. The other bubble teams have serious problems too but there are definitely reasonable arguments why they should get in over TU (and reasonable reasons to include TU). Like I said before though, all this could have been avoided by beating ORU and SEOSU. Every game counts.

 

[t-townpod]

Big blow when cincy got beat. Now we have to win it all

 

[mcane]

I'm feeling like a road win at UConn (which SMU and last night, Cinncy) failed to accomplish may get TU in. Boise's loss last night hurt them. I have read that the committee doesn't look at when the losses occurred, but frankly- does anyone think Temple would beat KU by 25 today or TU would lose to ORU today? I have to think that common sense weighs February and March heavier than December. If so, a team that improves never gets the benefit of that improvement.

It will all be moot with a loss this afternoon, so hopefully the debate will continue.

 

[Bill Lowery_1]

If we don't win today we have no shot at a bid. A win, we're still being considered. Yes, the Cincy loss really hurt our chances. When looking at a few other teams on the bubble, or not, you could see pros and cons for each.

Tulsa. RPI #41
1-50 2-6
51-100 3-1
100-200 loss ORU #163, SEOSU ??

Colo St. RPI #28
1-50 2-3
51-100 3-2
100-200 loss NM #173

BYU RPI #36
1-50 1-4
51-100 3-2
100-200 loss #156 SD, #135 Pepperdine (twice)

Georgia RPI #37
1-50 0-4
51-100 9-4
100-200 loss #153 Ga Tech, #125 Auburn

UCLA RPI #49
1-50 2-8
51-100 3-2
100-200 loss #133 Oregon St., #102 Ariz St

Mississippi RPI #53
1-50 3-5
51-100 6-3
100-200 loss #167 Charleston S, #132 TCU, #117 W Ken, #101 Vandy

Colo St has same top 50 and top 100 wins as us and a bad loss
BYU has less top 50 and top 100 wins than us, although it was Gonzaga. They also had 3 bad losses
Georgia has no top 50 wins, but more top 100 wins than us but 2 bad losses, 1 to Auburn a team we beat
UCLA has same top 50 and 100 wins but more losses and 2 bad ones
Mississippi has more top 50 and 100 wins but 4 bad losses

So IMO we actually look better than some of these teams and comparable to others. Again, we lose today and there's no more discussion.

This post was edited on 3/14 11:54 AM by Bill Lowery

This post was edited on 3/14 11:57 AM by Bill Lowery

 

[TU_BLA]

For once I agree with Phoggy. Don't lose to ORU and SEOSU and we are 24-8 with good RPI. Be tough to leave us out with that record.
Posted from Rivals Mobile

 

[texcane1982]

Originally posted by mcane:

I'm feeling like a road win at UConn (which SMU and last night, Cinncy) failed to accomplish may get TU in. Boise's loss last night hurt them. I have read that the committee doesn't look at when the losses occurred, but frankly- does anyone think Temple would beat KU by 25 today or TU would lose to ORU today? I have to think that common sense weighs February and March heavier than December. If so, a team that improves never gets the benefit of that improvement.

It will all be moot with a loss this afternoon, so hopefully the debate will continue.

Boise won a decent MWC and the Committee Chair is a MWC AD, you can bet they will get every possible consideration. Dr Coleman's research has proven that games played and won against the RPI Top 50 receive more consideration than losses to teams outside the RPI Top 100. This would explain why Cincinnati gets so much love from the Bracketologist despite losses to ECU and Tulane. The Cats have big wins over SMU (2), Temple, Tulsa, San Diego State, and NC State.

Based on history, TU, Boise State, and Miami will be closely vetted against one another, possibly for the last spot in the field.

TULSA (22-9)

Conference RPI: 8
Current RPI: 41
Current SOS: 90
Current Conf Record: 15-4
Record vs RPI 1-25: 0-4
Record vs RPI 26-50: 2-2
Record vs RPI 51-100: 3-1
Record vs RPI 101-200: 4-1
Record vs RPI 200+: 13-0
Current OOC Record: 7-4
OOC RPI: 108
OOC SOS: 122


Boise State (23-8)

Conference RPI: 11
Current RPI: 42
Current SOS: 117
Current Conf Record: 15-5
Record vs RPI 1-25: 2-1
Record vs RPI 26-50: 1-2
Record vs RPI 51-100: 1-2
Record vs RPI 101-200: 8-3
Record vs RPI 200+: 11-0
Current OOC Record: 8-3
OOC RPI: 53
OOC SOS: 162


Miami (21-12)

Conference RPI: 3
Current RPI: 65
Current SOS: 70
Current Conf Record: 11-9
Record vs RPI 1-25: 1-7
Record vs RPI 26-50: 1-0
Record vs RPI 51-100: 4-1
Record vs RPI 101-200: 5-4
Record vs RPI 200+: 10-0
OOC Record: 10-3
OOC RPI: 92
OOC SOS: 194


Boise State doesn't measure up to TU and Miami in the metrics, but they do have conference-related bias on their side with Utah State's AD as the Committee Chair.

Miami has played more games against the RPI Top 25, but Boise State has won more games against the RPI Top 25.

TU has played and won more against RPI 26-50.

Against the RPI Top 50 as a whole, Miami played 9 games (2 wins), TU has played 8 games (2 wins), and Boise State played 6 games (3 wins).

Miami was very average vs the RPI 101-200, whereas TU and Boise both faired well. Miami and TU will not have conference-related representation on the Committee, but TU does have a former AD, and two AD's who's school's played TU this season.



TX




This post was edited on 3/14 2:13 PM by texcane1982

 

[texcane1982]

Originally posted by TU_BLA:
For once I agree with Phoggy. Don't lose to ORU and SEOSU and we are 24-8 with good RPI. Be tough to leave us out with that record.





Posted from Rivals Mobile

Really the overall record plays a minimal factor in TU's current situation. TU's conference record would be more influential to their cause, beat Cincinnati at home or SMU on the road and they would be a lock upon advancing to the AAC semi-finals.
A share of the 8th ranked Conference in terms of RPI, plus another Top 50 RPI win would have trumped Boise State. The AAC is ranked 3 spots higher than the MWC in Conference RPI, and Boise's loss to Wyoming would have burst their bubble.

The loss to ORU has less impact than not capturing another win vs the Top 50 RPI.

TX






This post was edited on 3/14 12:27 PM by texcane1982

 

[TUBballJunkie]

Agree with Tex.

Pundits are NOT harping on our bad losses. Over and over again we are being criticized for lack of quality wins.
Posted from Rivals Mobile

 

[texcane1982]

Originally posted by TUBballJunkie:
Agree with Tex.

Pundits are NOT harping on our bad losses. Over and over again we are being criticized for lack of quality wins.

Posted from Rivals Mobile

According to Dr. Coleman, a number of teams with only 1 or 2 wins vs the RPI Top 50 have received at-large bids. However this year, the at-large field candidates are stronger and TU really needed to seperate themselves with 3 or 4 wins vs the Top 50,

Per historical Committee decisions, this years cut-line features teams (TU and Miami) who historically were been locks to make the field, odds of 96%. However, most years the cut-line has teams wiith much less certainty, ranging anywhere from 60% to 80% chance historically. I believe this indicates more teams this year have stronger resumes, more wins vs the RPI Top 50 than in years past.


TX

This post was edited on 3/14 2:00 PM by texcane1982

 

[PhoggyBottom]

Disagree. 24-8, 2nd place in American, season sweep of Temple and no bad losses would be enough.

 

[texcane1982]

Originally posted by PhoggyBottom:
Disagree. 24-8, 2nd place in American, season sweep of Temple and no bad losses would be enough.

TU should still be in good shape compared Miami and Boise State when you compare bad losses.

vs RPI (101-200)

Tulsa (4-1) 80%
Boise State (8-3) 72%
Miami (5-4) 55%

vs RPI (200+)

Miami (10-0) 100%
Boise State (11-0) 100%
Tulsa (13-0) 100%

Not only do you want to play less games vs the RPI (101-200) / (200+), you want the highest win percentage.

None of these 3 played a significant amount of 200+ RPI games by comparison to one another, but Boise State and Miami played roughly twice as many games vs the RPI (101-200) compared to TU.

If Miami had not beaten Duke, or was in the ACC, they would not even be part of this discussion.

The numbers state that TU will be less impacted in terms of bad losses, despite losing to ORU.


TX






This post was edited on 3/14 2:30 PM by texcane1982

 

[PhoggyBottom]

My point is that it is a hell of a lot easier to beat ORU and SEOSU than SMU or Cincy. If TU gets those two free wins, they have no bad losses and really gives the committee no excuse for leaving them out. Obviously, I agree with you that if TU is going to lose those two games, they needed to make up for it by beating someone of note.

 

[ashVID]

Lots of conjecture but it doesn't matter. Win or go home, period at this point.




ash =o)

 

[GoldandBlew_rivals]

Simple: Beat UCONN today and we are win. I am calling it!

 

[TU_BLA]

Out of the last 4 in/ first 4 out, we are the only ones still playing and control our fate
Posted from Rivals Mobile

 

[texcane1982]

Originally posted by TU_BLA:
Out of the last 4 in/ first 4 out, we are the only ones still playing and control our fate


Posted from Rivals Mobile

Lunardi has finally moved Miami below UCLA and TU. Only UCLA and Indiana stand between TU and the last at-large bid per Joe Lunardi's bracketology. LMAO, if true, TU would have no chance of bumping those 2 traditional powers with their current resume.

He claimed yetserday TU needs to earn the AAC auto-bid.

TX
This post was edited on 3/14 4:12 PM by texcane1982

 

[TU_BLA]

Lunardi's can say what he wants. If we win today I feel pretty good. RPI will jump up. I think Bois St gets bumped
Posted from Rivals Mobile

 

[T Up]

Heard the head of the selection committee say that they are down to 14 teams for 5 at large spots. Not great odds. Need to keep winning.

Sure is nice to still be saying that after a 5-5 start.

 

[TU Man]

Utah state AD probably hates us for flirting with Matt wells, and no way OU's AD wants us in....

 

[TU_BLA]

At least we are still playing and have that opportunity to get seen again. Talking head on ESPN said the same, only TU and Buffalo still playing of the last 4 in, first 4 out, and next 4 out. Not sure how LSU is still in the mix. Lost to Auburn...THEY FREAKING LOST TO A TEAM THAT ONLY SCORED 39 POINTS AGAINST US
Posted from Rivals Mobile

 

[T Up]

Hate that LSU, Texas, Boise, Indiana were on the bubble, all lost and all are still in. We were first four out, win twice and are still outside looking in.

 

[texcane1982]

Originally posted by TU Man:
Utah state AD probably hates us for flirting with Matt wells, and no way OU's AD wants us in....

Joe C. has no reason to hate on TU, matter of fact he is good friends with Dr. Gragg.


TX

 

[JesseTU]

The selection committee saw Tulsa piss away an 8 point lead. 16-2 run to close out the game and our tournament hopes.

 

[TU Sepp]

Our last 5 minutes definitely did not pass the "eye" test.

NIT for us this year...

 

[drboobay]

Lunardi really has zero respect. Pushed us to second 4 out behind ODU. What an ***.
Posted from Rivals Mobile

 

[goldenhurricane2]

Lunardi has been an *** about TU all year. I have no idea what his problem is, but there was some hack at ESPN that wrote an entire article about how TU didn't deserve to be in the tournament and basically called us a fraud.

ESPN definitely has their favorites, I just don't know why they hate us so much.
Posted from Rivals Mobile

 

[PhoggyBottom]

Only 8 top 150 wins and losses to ORU and SEOSO give them the ability to call this team a fraud. This was a season of missed opportunities. They have no one to blame but themselves.

 

[canester2002_rivals]

It's not even a possibility at this point. Even if we would have won this game and lost in the finals, we would still be sweating it out. Good year. Missed opportunities and "name" wins in OOC. They had their opportunities in 3 of the last 4.

 

[TUBballJunkie]

PHOGGY IS JOEY BRACKETS.

it's really the only explanation.

 

[PhoggyBottom]

This post was edited on 3/14 11:55 PM by PhoggyBottom