The stats are so awful this season vs low level competition that there are only a few possibilities- undisclosed bumps and bruises, bad OL play (but Allen is doing well), or he has made a biz decision to only go full speed in the big games. It is obvious he is doing poorly and when you see his performance measured in yards after contact it really makes you wonder what is actually wrong with him.
Singleton’s struggles measured in yards after contact
- Thread starter LMTLION
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The stats are so awful this season vs low level competition that there are only a few possibilities- undisclosed bumps and bruises, bad OL play (but Allen is doing well), or he has made a biz decision to only go full speed in the big games. It is obvious he is doing poorly and when you see his performance measured in yards after contact it really makes you wonder what is actually wrong with him.
For me the biggest flaw with Singleton right now is that he lacks decisiveness. He misses so many holes that you're left wondering why he stutter steps to the left when there's a decent hole open right in front of him.
The gap between Singleton and Allen is widening. Summer Camp is now concluded. CJF better be thinking seriously about reversing the carry ratio in yesterday’s game. Nick looks uninterested. And this is against high school level teams.
When we evaluate the value of a running back, it'd be fair to say we're looking for the following attributes:
-acceleration/running speed
-agility/elusiveness
-power/tackle breaking
-field vision/ability to find seams, holes, lanes
-hands/route running in passing situations
When I look at Singleton, I have seen him be effective as a passing target coming out of the backfield. But everything else...? I don't know what to tell you.
People like to say he's fast, but he was tracked down from behind by a defensive end that plays for an FCS team. I certainly haven't seen any burst from him this year. I think he just has the reputation of being fast because that was the narrative when he came into the program. But when you go looking for evidence...? Not seeing it.
I've never seen elusiveness from him at all. He has no moves. He never spins. He doesn't move laterally, doesn't juke. I would say his agility is below average.
As far as power/tackle breaking ability, at best, we've seen this here and there, but not with any consistency to make anyone think he's Barkley or Ki-Jana.
His field vision is absurd in how nonexistent it is. He cannot find openings to save his life. Against FIU, he missed a hole the side of the Grand Canyon and ran directly into his own blockers.
You might be right-- he may have decided, "I'm going at 50% against these OOC teams, and I don't care what the stat sheet says." That's kind of hard to believe... but I suppose it could be true. People who make it this level like to compete. If you don't, you would've have made it this far. I think he's just not that good.
The other thing is: another poster pointed out that Nick is playing to try to solidify a good draft position. So it makes no sense to phone it in. He should be out there look to peel off 40 yard runs every time he touches the ball. /shrug
FWIW:
Singleton AND Allen both had their most productive seasons as freshmen (the total yardage figures last year were inflated by the 16 games played).
Another just random observation:
For the first time in quite a while the Big Ten has several promising young QB in the league (the leagues QB depth the last few years was horrific) - but for the first time in a long time, very few proven running backs.
One of either Singleton or Allen could have a "meh" year, and end up being all-conference.
Singleton AND Allen both had their most productive seasons as freshmen (the total yardage figures last year were inflated by the 16 games played).
Another just random observation:
For the first time in quite a while the Big Ten has several promising young QB in the league (the leagues QB depth the last few years was horrific) - but for the first time in a long time, very few proven running backs.
One of either Singleton or Allen could have a "meh" year, and end up being all-conference.
You missed executing blocks and ability to pick up the blitz. He's very good at both and has shown that several times this year.
He’s a streaky home run hitter - I think it’s because of the combo of elite speed and terrible vision. He goes long stretches of greatness and long stretches of this now what we’re seeing.
I do think his lack of vision is masked by REALLY good OL play, which we also haven’t seen this year. I think he’ll come around this year when the OL turns it on. We ran outside zone so much last year down the stretch but we’ve barely seen it so far this year - which is a play I think Singleton’s speed really benefits from. Maybe we’re saving it for Oregon?
This is year 4 of Singleton. Similar to Allar, this is just what he is. We’ve had similar up and downs with Allen and everyone wanted Singleton to get more touches because he had more explosiveness. I think that’s why each benefits from having the other on the team. Fingers crossed Singleton finds it in the next two weeks.
I do think his lack of vision is masked by REALLY good OL play, which we also haven’t seen this year. I think he’ll come around this year when the OL turns it on. We ran outside zone so much last year down the stretch but we’ve barely seen it so far this year - which is a play I think Singleton’s speed really benefits from. Maybe we’re saving it for Oregon?
This is year 4 of Singleton. Similar to Allar, this is just what he is. We’ve had similar up and downs with Allen and everyone wanted Singleton to get more touches because he had more explosiveness. I think that’s why each benefits from having the other on the team. Fingers crossed Singleton finds it in the next two weeks.
I am going to disagree with your last point a little. One of the reasons he came back this year was his draft position. And is lack of innate skills will not allow him to solidify a good draft position. He has limitations.
I was just reading the Allar thread and a poster stated that our schedule strength is currently ranked 134 out of 136. That is the level of competition that Singleton is struggling against. I just looked up Kaytron and he is 34/273 8.0 ypc. That’s pretty darn good. There is definitively an unknown factor negatively impacting Nick’s performance.
It appears to me as though he misses opportunities to run through open spaces crafted by the blockers. Often, the holes are there but he misses them and seems to go opposite of where he could see gains. I really believe Kaytron will see a huge uptick in carries for the White Out due to this reality.
Landon Tengwall has a video out that was mentioned in another thread and it sheds some more light on this. He mentions the PFF Elusive Rating, a grade calculated for how elusive or hard to tackle a RB is. Yards after contact is probably factored into it. Here are the grades for our RBs:
Allen = 236
Singleton = 15
For some perspective, the 15 rating for Nick is third worst in the entire conference. So far this year he has been very easy to tackle and Kaytron has been very difficult to tackle.
Landon agrees with most here that Allen should be RB1, not RB1A.
Allen = 236
Singleton = 15
For some perspective, the 15 rating for Nick is third worst in the entire conference. So far this year he has been very easy to tackle and Kaytron has been very difficult to tackle.
Landon agrees with most here that Allen should be RB1, not RB1A.
The offensive line? The left side has been basically fine - 66 is playing really well. The fact the the opposition was been a tic above junior college level does, of course, temper any evaluation.
The right side? Ugly. No way to sugar coat it.
And Penn State's blocking of the outside zone has been, generally, horrific. Probably the "worst thing they do" - for whatever the reasons. The less they run of that the better (unless they show marked improvement). Competitive defensive fronts will eat that up as they are currently executing it.
The "pin and pull" and other schemes have been far more consistent.
I don't necessarily disagree with the assessment on Kaytron being better vs Singleton and deserving more carries. But Kaytron doesn't have game changing ability of Nick and Kaytron is not very good in the pass game.
I would worry keeping Nick off the field might be a missed opportunity for when HE DOES hit the right hole and takes one 60 yards. Nick's home run ability has flipped games on its head in the past.
I would worry keeping Nick off the field might be a missed opportunity for when HE DOES hit the right hole and takes one 60 yards. Nick's home run ability has flipped games on its head in the past.
Nick absolutely needs to continue to get carries. Like you said, he may and probably will break out one of these games. He’s also a much bigger threat in the passing game although he hasn’t been used much there. I don’t think people are asking to sit him the rest of the year. They’re hoping that the better back gets the bulk of the carries and Nick gets his 10ish, more if he gets on a roll. The younger guys can get mixed in as long as those guys can be trusted to not get Drew killed.
This is such a dumb discussion, and I'm largely just repeating myself at this point ...
Yeah, we all know the numbers have been skewed toward 1 RB so far this year. We also have history to let us know that this, too, shall pass. No one should be making decisions off these short-term blips. 26 for 64 = 2.5 ypc. 33 for 190. 5.76 ypc. Those are the rushing stats for Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, respectively, during a late-year 3-game stretch (Purdue, Minny, UMD) last year. Both went on to be productive in the "postseason" games that immediately followed that stretch.
And when you actually look at the runs yesterday, it wasn't as if Singleton was missing holes and Allen was creating something out of nothing. Watch the game again. Yeah, Singleton slipped on one play. But, for the most part, when Singleton got the ball, he did the most he could with it ... he'd try to go outside, and the defense just swarmed ... there was no lane, no cut back available, etc. When Allen got the ball, he "lucked" into available lanes. It's just how it goes, sometimes.
Again ... Allen is outperforming Singleton, so far. It'll likely sway back at some point (or multiple points) this year. There's zero reason to prefer one over the other.
Don't forget that Singleton is also the much better receiving threat (did everyone freak out when Allen dropped a pass yesterday?), and he's a stud in pass pro.
Yeah, we all know the numbers have been skewed toward 1 RB so far this year. We also have history to let us know that this, too, shall pass. No one should be making decisions off these short-term blips. 26 for 64 = 2.5 ypc. 33 for 190. 5.76 ypc. Those are the rushing stats for Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton, respectively, during a late-year 3-game stretch (Purdue, Minny, UMD) last year. Both went on to be productive in the "postseason" games that immediately followed that stretch.
And when you actually look at the runs yesterday, it wasn't as if Singleton was missing holes and Allen was creating something out of nothing. Watch the game again. Yeah, Singleton slipped on one play. But, for the most part, when Singleton got the ball, he did the most he could with it ... he'd try to go outside, and the defense just swarmed ... there was no lane, no cut back available, etc. When Allen got the ball, he "lucked" into available lanes. It's just how it goes, sometimes.
Again ... Allen is outperforming Singleton, so far. It'll likely sway back at some point (or multiple points) this year. There's zero reason to prefer one over the other.
Don't forget that Singleton is also the much better receiving threat (did everyone freak out when Allen dropped a pass yesterday?), and he's a stud in pass pro.
Just put him in situations where he can succeed which is short passes and I guess a pitch wide to get him in open space. He is not our guy to run between the tackles and pick up a tough 3 yards.
That is exactly why we are 0-3! Damn we are terrible.
Singleton and Allen are a packaged running back .both on track for most yards at psu, one and two all time running backs ever!!
In his career, Singleton now has 540 carries for 3091 yards (5.7 yards/carry) and 37 touchdowns. Add in another 83 catches for 812 yards (9.8 yards/reception) and 8 touchdowns.
That means that in 41 games, he averages about 95 yards, a couple of receptions, and over a TD/game. All while most would agree that he's a good blocker/pass protector. Plus averaging ~25 yards/kick return with one TD.
Personally, I find that to be pretty good for a kid with limited speed/acceleration, no awareness, no ability to make men miss, and no ability to break tackles. Unless of course, we have the best oline in the country year over year, but I always read about how weak we are in that area too,...while doing it with coache that have no idea what they're doing.
I give him a huge amount of credit...for a kid with limited talent, he's really lucked into quite the career.
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He can pick up a tough 3 yards inside. He's effective near the goal line for instance.
What he doesn't do enough is find a hole, make a cut, or shake off a tackler to turn the 3-yard gain into 7 to 10 yards or more.
Not a bad player, but Kaytron should be RB1 and get more carries.
