So if we win tonight...
- Thread starter hdhntr1
- Start date
I say no.
In general, I'm freaked about tonight. The RPI/Kenpom math says NU should win this game, but I think we know otherwise. The Illini talent is better than the math, and NU can't depend on poor coaching and preparation.
I'd love to see NU pull out the "Ethan Happ double team" on Morgan just for 3-5 minutes each half - especially if Illinois is shooting poorly. I wonder if that would disrupt things enough and force three or four turnovers.
In general, I'm freaked about tonight. The RPI/Kenpom math says NU should win this game, but I think we know otherwise. The Illini talent is better than the math, and NU can't depend on poor coaching and preparation.
I'd love to see NU pull out the "Ethan Happ double team" on Morgan just for 3-5 minutes each half - especially if Illinois is shooting poorly. I wonder if that would disrupt things enough and force three or four turnovers.
I would say likely yes, but I would much rather win 2 more to be safe. Keep in mind most have Michigan on the right side of the bubble at 7-7 in conference. I know that our conf schedule has been easier to date, but still the comp for 7-7 would be 9-9, and we are talking 10-8. Also they had a worse OOC than us. But anyways, let's just keep winning and make all that irrelevant.
Side note we did double Morgan a handful of times (between 5 and 10 maybe?) last time we played them. I suspect CC will again. He's a better passer than Happ though. Plus Finke was making everything. I still like Sanjay doubling him though, and having the added length of Scottie behind the double should help with covering the rest of the floor.
Stop worrying, you're in. Beating Bucky and then dodging a horrible loss to Rutgers punched the ticket. Go look at the resumes of some of the "last in" teams right now, really, really bad stuff.
I'd go 50 on 1 win, but there would be work to do in DC. The optics of going 2 for the last 8 wouldn't be good, but the bubble is weak this year.
Exactly what he just said. Look at the resumes of the last teams in right now it's ugly. 68 is different from 64 more than you'd think.
I think 1 more win gives us like 70% chance. 2 more wins and make it 100%.
I've been keeping a running % tracker to my friends... it's at 85% right now. If we beat IL it will go to like 96%. 2 more wins puts it at 100%.
Needing 1 win vs. winning tonight are two different things. A win tonight with no more wins means a 4 game losing streak to end the season.
I don't think it does because 10 wins leaves the door open for a questionable loss in the BTT. Don't want to end the season on a 4 game losing streak. I think 11 conference wins is what gets us to a lock.
Think you're right with this, but whaddya say we go it one better and remove the suspense?
yeah obviously... and that's the difference between the 70% I quoted (if we win 1 more and that's it) and the 96% I quoted (live % chance if we were to win tonight).
if you're trying to do complex math on my spur of the moment approximations that I pulled from thin air, you could back out that 96% vs 70% implies about a 13% chance of us losing out after (conditionally) beating Illinois, which seems a bit high. so after spending an additional few seconds thinking about it, I'd say it goes allll the way up to 97% if we win tonight. you also do have to allow some tail probability of significant injury that leads to autocorrelation in the results in a negative direction.