Southern Mississippi game

[Levibooty]

The two common opponents last year were Miss. St. and Charlotte. MSU beat both of us easily and we beat both beat Charlotte easily. Barker played fairly close to the vest mostly handing the ball to Boom and Kemp who ran all over Charlotte. This year he will have at least some experience and a whole preseason to get ready as the starter.

I believe SM is a reasonably good team and will play well. I think Kentucky will come out with a chip on their shoulder and feel like they have something to prove. I think the 7.5 point spread is very close to being correct.

Sm is not simply a good offensive team they have a fairly good defense also ranking in the high 40's to low 50's in a lot of defensive categories. Kentucky will have to perform on the field for the entire game to win and will have to steel themselves before the game so that they will not be surprised by the effort from SM they will see.

I hope we see Kentucky have success running the ball hard against SM and burn them with play action. It is going to be interesting to see how Gran attacks SM defense and how we will remain focused on offense.

SM will have a great QB but he will not be throwing to the same people this year. That may play into the outcome of this game as SM lost one of their two 1000 yard rushers and 3 out of 5 of their top pass receivers including their two best WR's that had 150 receptions for 2300 yards and 21 TD's. The loss of those NFL caliber players definitely will impact the talent last years team had as weapons for Dawson to utilize this year.

 

[Deeeefense]

They have a new head coach, we have 4 new assistants - that will likely have some impact.

SMU recruiting classes were ranked 79th, 74th, 69th and 68 from 2015 thru 2012. UK's were ranked 34th, 18th, 38th and 61st. That should result in a big net talent advantage for us. This is a home game that you MUST win simply becasue you have the better players and are playing at home.

 

[Cazwheel1072]

I am betting that Gran will rely heavily on the running game for this opener. I would pound the hell out of them and then do it some more...and stick to it, with opportunistic and high percentage passing thrown in to keep it honest.

Some of our less football astute fans would moan about it, but it will be our early season offensive strength and would help keep our defense fresh.

Plus, we all know what Dawson will do, and provided we stop the homerun pass threat and do the above, their defense should be anything but fresh around midway through the 3rd Q.

 

[Brock28]

I am betting that Gran will rely heavily on the running game for this opener. I would pound the hell out of them and then do it some more...and stick to it, with opportunistic and high percentage passing thrown in to keep it honest.

Some of our less football astute fans would moan about it, but it will be our early season offensive strength and would help keep our defense fresh.

Plus, we all know what Dawson will do, and provided we stop the homerun pass threat and do the above, their defense should be anything but fresh around midway through the 3rd Q.

This.

 

[zumacat]

I am betting that Gran will rely heavily on the running game for this opener. I would pound the hell out of them and then do it some more...and stick to it, with opportunistic and high percentage passing thrown in to keep it honest.

Some of our less football astute fans would moan about it, but it will be our early season offensive strength and would help keep our defense fresh.

Plus, we all know what Dawson will do, and provided we stop the homerun pass threat and do the above, their defense should be anything but fresh around midway through the 3rd Q.

Cazwheel has it right, we will run and run some more mixing in some passes even on first down.

 

[CatWalk]

There are more questions that USM will have to answer than that UK will have to answer. They have an experienced and good QB returning and a good RB returning. They also return the center of their OL. But they lost their 2 leading WRs and 3 of their top 6; one of their main 2 RBs; and both multi-year starters at OT. That, with new coaches and new systems, the first game is likely to be a major challenge for them. Will they find replacement WRs? Will Smith be able to carry the load and take the punishment at RB? Will they find OTs to protect Mullens? Will Dawson make bizarre play calls?

If their spring game offers any insight into their early season projections, it may not be an easy transition.

http://www.southernmiss.com/sports/m-footbl/recaps/042316aaa.html

Their defense also lost key elements from last years team, including both DTs, 3 of their top 4 LBs and their leading CB (led team in ints & pbu's, & 3rd in tackles). They return much of their special teams, although that may not be an advantage. STs were bad last year.

In the spring game, the defense got the best of the offense. Given the losses on D, that may not speak well for the O going forward.

http://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...rn-miss-football-2016-preview-schedule-roster

 

[Grumpyolddawg]

They have a new head coach, we have 4 new assistants - that will likely have some impact.

SMU recruiting classes were ranked 79th, 74th, 69th and 68 from 2015 thru 2012. UK's were ranked 34th, 18th, 38th and 61st. That should result in a big net talent advantage for us. This is a home game that you MUST win simply becasue you have the better players and are playing at home.

You can't really put recruiting rankings to use with teams like this. Last year Georgia Southern pushed us to OT, and really should have won in regulation, and didn't have a class ranked above 75, they beat UF a couple seasons ago when UF was trotting 4 top 10 classes out. Georgia Southern and Southern Miss take kids that might be an inch or two shorter than what a P5 school wants, or a few pounds lighter. I don't know much about USM's roster, but Georgia Southern's is full of guys that can flat run. They are replacing alot, including the head coach, UK shouild win by 7-10, could be more, but like the opener last year, its a tough one, they are coming for more than to collect a check, they feel they can win, Having Dawson, as their OC has positives and negatives, UK knows what he likes to do, but on the other hand he knows what UK's defense likes to do too, probably a tradeoff.

 

[Mike237]

They have a new head coach, we have 4 new assistants - that will likely have some impact.

SMU recruiting classes were ranked 79th, 74th, 69th and 68 from 2015 thru 2012. UK's were ranked 34th, 18th, 38th and 61st. That should result in a big net talent advantage for us. This is a home game that you MUST win simply becasue you have the better players and are playing at home.

 

[Mike237]

Isn't that last ranking for UK 16th rather than 61st?

 

[Mike237]

Isn't that last ranking for UK 16th rather than 61st?

 

[WildCard]

First, thanks CatWalk for 2 excellent links. After looking at Connelly's figures, despite the loss of a 1100 yard RB and their top 2 WRs, it appears to me USM has the makings of a good offense. They return 55 and 30 catch guys at WR plus a 1000 yard rusher who caught 49 balls for 500 yards. Their really big question might be replacing their 2 OTs. On defense, they seem a lot like UK losing a lot on the inside but returning a good secondary.

This game is shaping up as the most talked about (and anxiety laden opener) since the last time the Cats opened against the Cards. The game is critical to a 6 win season and the current Cats -7 line does little to inspire overwhelming confidence in a positive outcome. Unlike most OOC openers this one is not about style points; just get the win and run off the field. [winking]

Peace

 

[jauk11]

Thanks for the links. Hard to tell who is ahead when you split squads and play against yourself, either the offense was bad or the defense was good.

 

[jauk11]

Just who is the SEC team in this game?

No, no doubt in the recruit ratings that UK is way ahead (WKU should have taught us not to take too much comfort in that, although our talent has taken another big jump since we played WKU).

No I am talking about the writeup, breakdowns of positions, charts, lots of info that I wish we could find anywhere about our Cats-----still just a little info dribbling out from time to time.

And the "official UK athletics site" has gone from one of the best in the business to an absolute disgrace IMO, I used to follow a ton of minor sports games, stats, schedules, live coverage, etc there, and now almost nothing.

 

[Mr Schwump]

Just who is the SEC team in this game?

No, no doubt in the recruit ratings that UK is way ahead (WKU should have taught us not to take too much comfort in that, although our talent has taken another big jump since we played WKU).

No I am talking about the writeup, breakdowns of positions, charts, lots of info that I wish we could find anywhere about our Cats-----still just a little info dribbling out from time to time.

And the "official UK athletics site" has gone from one of the best in the business to an absolute disgrace IMO, I used to follow a ton of minor sports games, stats, schedules, live coverage, etc there, and now almost nothing.

True that jauk about the "official UK athletics site." Pathetic.

 

[Deeeefense]

Isn't that last ranking for UK 16th rather than 61st?

no 61st is correct. That was the last Joker only class 2012. 2013 was a Joker/Stoops combo.

 

[Levibooty]

Good to see so many agreeing with my post. LOL

Now considering that --- maybe Gran will come out the first series and sling the ball downfield. If we have success SM could over-react on defense and then we run the ball hard down their throat.

I do believe Dawson is going to want to show Kentucky what his real capability is and I'm sure he has some potential I just don't think he has the same tools to work with the he had here or they had last year. He will have a good QB to work with though. A QB that has already been successful with another coach---that may be interesting as well.

 

[Oldtrainer_rivals]

Think opening game CATS offense will be run first!

 

[CB3UK]

Well definitely save some tricks for the following weeks v South Carolina and Florida. The Gamecocks are ripe for three in a row. Play USM conservative....grind it out and pound em and move on to Week 2.

 

[Mr Schwump]

Think opening game CATS offense will be run first!

Agree, don't think there's any question.

 

[TBCat]

I am betting that Gran will rely heavily on the running game for this opener. I would pound the hell out of them and then do it some more...and stick to it, with opportunistic and high percentage passing thrown in to keep it honest.

Some of our less football astute fans would moan about it, but it will be our early season offensive strength and would help keep our defense fresh.

Plus, we all know what Dawson will do, and provided we stop the homerun pass threat and do the above, their defense should be anything but fresh around midway through the 3rd Q.

This could be end up being a terrible mistake. USM isn't a weak sister opponent. Teams like this usually are pretty good at defending the run. This won't be like Charlotte. UK is better than USM in my opinion but not dominant to the point where we could do that. Not to mention our backs are not the pound the ball type of backs. We need to get Drew going. If Drew throws for 300 yards we will win by at least 1 score. If Drew has a weak performance we will probably lose the game. It is important to get our QB situation squared away. We can't start pretending that we are Alabama and just run it down their throats. That will back fire against every team on our schedule except for Austin Peay or New Mexico State. We need to stick with our typical offense. Even if it works against USM we still need to get Drew off to a good start. Poor QB play = 4 or 5 win season.

 

[gobigblue812_rivals29381]

I don't think Stoops plays very conservative. He's playing to win this game instead of playing not to lose.

 

[Poetax]

Good to see so many agreeing with my post. LOL

Now considering that --- maybe Gran will come out the first series and sling the ball downfield. If we have success SM could over-react on defense and then we run the ball hard down their throat.

I do believe Dawson is going to want to show Kentucky what his real capability is and I'm sure he has some potential I just don't think he has the same tools to work with the he had here or they had last year. He will have a good QB to work with though. A QB that has already been successful with another coach---that may be interesting as well.

If their QB gets great protection from his two new starting tackles it could get tight. But I'm really feeling that our defense and our special team play is better this year and will help with some scoring.

 

[BigBoyBlueMMA]

I am betting that Gran will rely heavily on the running game for this opener. I would pound the hell out of them and then do it some more...and stick to it, with opportunistic and high percentage passing thrown in to keep it honest.

Some of our less football astute fans would moan about it, but it will be our early season offensive strength and would help keep our defense fresh.

Plus, we all know what Dawson will do, and provided we stop the homerun pass threat and do the above, their defense should be anything but fresh around midway through the 3rd Q.

This is how they will need to play - crossing patterns on short drops - and RUN RUN RUN