Spread check: UofL +3.

[CardX]

ESPN's Game Predictor has it in favor for UK at 69% to Louisville's 31%. My unpopular opinion is that Louisville doesn't match up well in this one. UK's OL is strong. They have a strong running game. Our defense is not good. It's a rivalry game, so emotions will come into play, which could lead to mistakes and costly penalties, but that being said, UK at home should handle this one.

Total Defense
UK 26th
UofL 102nd

Rush Defense
UK 56th
UofL 86th

Pass Defense
UK 10th
UofL 105th

Rushing Offense
UK 12th
UofL 25th

Total Offense
UofL 28th
UK 89th

And that last one is the saving grace. If the Cards come out hot, I suddenly like our chances. If the game becomes a grind it out, in the trenches battle, advantage UK.

 

[nccardfan]

ESPN's Game Predictor has it in favor for UK at 69% to Louisville's 31%. My unpopular opinion is that Louisville doesn't match up well in this one. UK's OL is strong. They have a strong running game. Our defense is not good. It's a rivalry game, so emotions will come into play, which could lead to mistakes and costly penalties, but that being said, UK at home should handle this one.

Total Defense
UK 26th
UofL 102nd

Rush Defense
UK 56th
UofL 86th

Pass Defense
UK 10th
UofL 105th

Rushing Offense
UK 12th
UofL 25th

Total Offense
UofL 28th
UK 89th

And that last one is the saving grace. If the Cards come out hot, I suddenly like our chances. If the game becomes a grind it out, in the trenches battle, advantage UK.

Throw out our pass defense numbers, Bowden can’t throw....

 

[Steelers2012_rivals379029]

Agreed on the passing defense numbers. UK hasn't shown a tendency to do that, or to be very successful passing when they've been forced to do it. I actually look for UK to try to stuff it down our throats with the running game from the first snap til the last, only attempting to pass when necessary. I think their plan will be ball and clock control, keeping our offense off the field as much as possible, and wearing our defense down. I've been shocked since they went to Lynn Bowden at QB that they have been able to win being so one dimensional. You would think that stacking the box and stopping the run would be a pretty simple solution, but Gran has been really good at spreading out the defense with multiple wideouts, allowing their OL to win the battle at the line. And as we know with Lamar Jackson and now Micale Cunningham, adding that rushing QB allows the offense to take advantage of the slightest crease in the pursuit for an effective gain. Bowden is every bit as elusive as Cunningham in that regard. I believe it all comes down to which team can best control the other's offense. If we can get out early and grab the lead, UK's running game isn't built for quick strikes or big come backs. Conversely, if we can't stop UK's clock eating running game, we will be limited in possessions and the pressure will mount to score every time we have the ball. And...God forbid UK decides to onside kick every time they score. We will never see the ball on offense.

 

[Thecycle27]

Louisville will have to be extremely efficient on offense. They won’t get many possessions. If they do that means the defense is getting gashed or creating turnovers.

This is a really bad matchup with their offense. Best Oline they have faced besides Clemson.

 

[LeFors4Ever]

The numbers can show strengths, but won’t determine the game.

Kentucky limits possessions and puts pressure on you to score when you get the ball. They do tend to give up “the big play” and we sure can do that well. But, our defense just stays on the field and gets tired, and their offense can just control the LOS and TOP.

Seeing a low 50’s and rain forecast makes me weary. But Micale can turn a broken play into a big play on slick turf.

 

[sound slave]

ESPN's Game Predictor has it in favor for UK at 69% to Louisville's 31%. My unpopular opinion is that Louisville doesn't match up well in this one. UK's OL is strong. They have a strong running game. Our defense is not good. .

I agree entirely about Kentucky being a bad matchup for Louisville. UK has a very talented/physical team in the trenches and their defense is solid. Hopefully our boys can stop the UK running game. If so, the Cardinals have a good chance. Big "if" though.

 

[billoliver40]

Bad matchup for UK as well. Explosive offense that if it gets ahead will be difficult to dial back. Stoops likes his players to be counter punchers....take a shot or two from the opponent then grind. That doesnt work if the punches knock you out.

I like the Cats. (supposed to) but its a pick em game. The +3 covers being away, thats all. That means nothing in this game.

Cats gotta keep ya'll from going up three scores early. Do that and the Cats have a better than average shot. Let that high powered Offense of Louisville get rolling and the UK players lose composure....well....I may be tipping a hat to the opposition.

I honestly think its gonna be a really good game.

 

[LeFors4Ever]

I agree entirely about Kentucky being a bad matchup for Louisville. UK has a very talented/physical team in the trenches and their defense is solid. Hopefully our boys can stop the UK running game. If so, the Cardinals have a good chance. Big "if" though.

The bad matchup worries me because of the weather. Big chance of rain in the low 50’s.

That’s a game for big physical guys and hard to get big explosive plays.

 

[nccardfan]

The bad matchup worries me because of the weather. Big chance of rain in the low 50’s.

That’s a game for big physical guys and hard to get big explosive plays.

Our last 2 games have been in nasty weather. We should be accustomed to it! Go Cards!

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood_rivals307205]

This feels like a game UofL would need to get out in front to win.

The D is going to struggle getting stops, they really should sell out to stop the run, but even if they do, that doesn't mean they can stop it anyway.

But if the Cards can get out on top, that could change the outlook, because UK doesn't really play a come from behind style.

But this UofL D, it for sure bends, at best, but they do make some plays.

Can't do worse than last year!

 

[Louis III]

I get UK's defensive numbers, but look at the offenses in the last several games! They have not seen an offense like ours! I'm not saying we will have 600 yards and score 50 points, but 400 yards and 28-30 points is VERY realistic. If we score 30 points we will every chance in the world to win. I think this game will come down to the turnover number. Within 1, its a coinflip, if its +2 or more either team will win by 10+ points.

 

[Ipartiedwithhopgood_rivals307205]

UK plays keep away. Stop their O you got a shot to put pts on their D. If UK is running it down the Cards throat their D will be tough.

 

[FlavRunit]

Agreed on the passing defense numbers. UK hasn't shown a tendency to do that, or to be very successful passing when they've been forced to do it. I actually look for UK to try to stuff it down our throats with the running game from the first snap til the last, only attempting to pass when necessary. I think their plan will be ball and clock control, keeping our offense off the field as much as possible, and wearing our defense down. I've been shocked since they went to Lynn Bowden at QB that they have been able to win being so one dimensional. You would think that stacking the box and stopping the run would be a pretty simple solution, but Gran has been really good at spreading out the defense with multiple wideouts, allowing their OL to win the battle at the line. And as we know with Lamar Jackson and now Micale Cunningham, adding that rushing QB allows the offense to take advantage of the slightest crease in the pursuit for an effective gain. Bowden is every bit as elusive as Cunningham in that regard. I believe it all comes down to which team can best control the other's offense. If we can get out early and grab the lead, UK's running game isn't built for quick strikes or big come backs. Conversely, if we can't stop UK's clock eating running game, we will be limited in possessions and the pressure will mount to score every time we have the ball. And...God forbid UK decides to onside kick every time they score. We will never see the ball on offense.

This right here about sums it up.

 

[LeFors4Ever]

I get UK's defensive numbers, but look at the offenses in the last several games! They have not seen an offense like ours! I'm not saying we will have 600 yards and score 50 points, but 400 yards and 28-30 points is VERY realistic. If we score 30 points we will every chance in the world to win. I think this game will come down to the turnover number. Within 1, its a coinflip, if its +2 or more either team will win by 10+ points.

Well that’s the big thing, not throwing the ball keeps their turnovers to a minimum. On top of running the clock every play, they don’t risk putting it in the air to stop the clock or get it picked off.

And I believe over the last 2 seasons they’ve only given up 30 points 1 time.

They’ve scored over 20 points in 7 of their 11 games.

They’ve score over 30 points in 4 of their 11 games and only one of them was against an SEC team in Vandy.

Judging by those numbers combined with our lack of defense, they can score points on bad defenses, but not huge numbers. I’d say 24-27 point range is the number where I feel confident we can win the game.

They may can get to 30 on us, but that’s probably an at best scenario for them. But getting to 24 for them may not be much, but they can milk the clock for 5-10 minute drives. That’s going to limit our possessions and rest their defense.

 

[Louisvillian]

Lots of good posts in this thread. Something you would never see on a UK message board.

 

[davecmc]

UK is 2-5 in their toss up games vs reasonable competition with wins only over 3W Arkansas and 5W Missouri. I’m not sure they’ve defeated a team that will participate in a bowl.

If you take out their first 2 and last 2 games vs cupcakes and examine how they play vs competitive teams, they have never scored more than 29 points, been shut out once vs. UGA and not got out of the teens vs modest defensive teams like UT. They haven’t played a really good offensive team to build their def stats by dodging the best in the SEC and a soft non-conf.

They will have trouble keeping up with our offense. Take the points!

 

[LeFors4Ever]

UK is 2-5 in their toss up games vs reasonable competition with wins only over 3W Arkansas and 5W Missouri. I’m not sure they’ve defeated a team that will participate in a bowl.

If you take out their first 2 and last 2 games vs cupcakes and examine how they play vs competitive teams, they have never scored more than 29 points, been shut out once vs. UGA and not got out of the teens vs modest defensive teams like UT. They haven’t played a really good offensive team to build their def stats by dodging the best in the SEC and a soft non-conf.

They will have trouble keeping up with our offense. Take the points!

Where I’d say you’re right and wrong

You’re right about our offense being different. They’ve seen some talent, but nothing this dynamic. They have talent/speed in their secondary, but they haven’t face guys like ours. Tutu and Dez will have a field day on their secondary given the chance.

But the one thing say a team like Tennessee and Georgia has is size on their defensive front to push that line of Kentucky’s back. Kentucky has been able to assert their will on a lot of teams, but Tennessee and Georgia were the teams that could make the goal line and red zone stands.

That’s another thing too that does worry me, is size on our offensive line. Micale when he isn’t pressured has the highest QBR in the nation but becomes one of the worst when he is pressured. Kentucky has some big boys on their line and some talented linebackers, and I know Porky Pie Stoops will have some blitzes dialed up. This will probably be on if the better blitzing teams (outside of Clemson and ND) that we’ve seen.

Our guys up front have to play hard to win, and NO STUPID PENALTIES. We won’t beat them in the trenches, but we can play harder and smarter to get that win.

 

[OlhamCardinal]

UK has three wins against cupcakes, two from the MAC and one from the OVC. They all have winning records but just barely. UK has three wins in the SEC, all against the three worst teams in the entire league. These three teams (Ark, Vandy and Missouri) have a combined overall record of 10 and 22 and these teams have a total of 3 SEC wins between them. UK has 0 wins against a power five team with a winning record.
On Saturday, they will face a Power Five Team with a winning record. They are 0-3 against such teams this season (their other two losses are against SEC teams with sub .500 records). UL’s four losses have all come against Power Five teams with winning records. UL has beaten two Power Five teams with winning records.
When you look at these two resumes it appears the difference is significant. At this point in the season you have earned your credentials, good and bad.
Neither team is elite. Both teams have struggled at times this season. But, one team has earned a resume with some nice wins and has shown some toughness. The other team....not so much.

 

[LeFors4Ever]

UK has three wins against cupcakes, two from the MAC and one from the OVC. They all have winning records but just barely. UK has three wins in the SEC, all against the three worst teams in the entire league. These three teams (Ark, Vandy and Missouri) have a combined overall record of 10 and 22 and these teams have a total of 3 SEC wins between them. UK has 0 wins against a power five team with a winning record.
On Saturday, they will face a Power Five Team with a winning record. They are 0-3 against such teams this season (their other two losses are against SEC teams with sub .500 records). UL’s four losses have all come against Power Five teams with winning records. UL has beaten two Power Five teams with winning records.
When you look at these two resumes it appears the difference is significant. At this point in the season you have earned your credentials, good and bad.
Neither team is elite. Both teams have struggled at times this season. But, one team has earned a resume with some nice wins and has shown some toughness. The other team....not so much.

I think UK’s season is in 3 acts and 3 teams.

1. They played 2 cupcakes with a full deck and then lost their QB. Can’t really use anything from these games.

2. Lost their starter and then played with an injured backup and they lost terribly once their backup was injured. Couldn’t really score points in their losses, although their Defense held up well despite being on the field.

3. Converted their best athlete to wideout. Only 2 losses during that time are to a playoff Georgia and close loss to Tennessee who will be 7-5. They blew out a bad Missouri team who’ll end up 6-6. Took a strong rally to beat and awful Arkansas. And ran over awful Vanderbilt. This is the team we will be playing.

I think team 3 is good, but then again their only real test was Tennessee and they’re a completely different style than our team. They were a missed field goal away from beating a great Florida team too, and they haven’t really been blown out in any game. So I’d imagine they can keep it close.

Our season is pretty much 2 teams. Get blown out by really good teams. And then win games where we need to make 1-2 big plays to hold off the other team in the 4th quarter. I don’t think Kentucky is on a level with Notre Dame or Clemson or anywhere close. But they probably are like a Miami, Wake Forrest, or Virginia.

So survey says we can play them close, but we will give up some points. And we need to be LEADING going into the 4th quarter. We’ve really let teams back in the game late. They’ve done a great job of keeping games close, even in their losses. We need to be up 10-14 going into the 4th. I don’t want them eating clock and marching down the field the whole 4th quarter eating clock.

This also will be the first real hostile road crowd we’ve faced this season. I don’t think we’ve seen a crowd over 50k on the road yet this year. Some teams thrive, some don’t. We shall see!

 

[OlhamCardinal]

I think UK’s season is in 3 acts and 3 teams.

1. They played 2 cupcakes with a full deck and then lost their QB. Can’t really use anything from these games.

2. Lost their starter and then played with an injured backup and they lost terribly once their backup was injured. Couldn’t really score points in their losses, although their Defense held up well despite being on the field.

3. Converted their best athlete to wideout. Only 2 losses during that time are to a playoff Georgia and close loss to Tennessee who will be 7-5. They blew out a bad Missouri team who’ll end up 6-6. Took a strong rally to beat and awful Arkansas. And ran over awful Vanderbilt. This is the team we will be playing.

I think team 3 is good, but then again their only real test was Tennessee and they’re a completely different style than our team. They were a missed field goal away from beating a great Florida team too, and they haven’t really been blown out in any game. So I’d imagine they can keep it close.

Our season is pretty much 2 teams. Get blown out by really good teams. And then win games where we need to make 1-2 big plays to hold off the other team in the 4th quarter. I don’t think Kentucky is on a level with Notre Dame or Clemson or anywhere close. But they probably are like a Miami, Wake Forrest, or Virginia.

So survey says we can play them close, but we will give up some points. And we need to be LEADING going into the 4th quarter. We’ve really let teams back in the game late. They’ve done a great job of keeping games close, even in their losses. We need to be up 10-14 going into the 4th. I don’t want them eating clock and marching down the field the whole 4th quarter eating clock.

This also will be the first real hostile road crowd we’ve faced this season. I don’t think we’ve seen a crowd over 50k on the road yet this year. Some teams thrive, some don’t. We shall see!

Sorry, I’m a little confused by, “They’ve done a great job of keeping things close even in their losses”. Is a 28-13 loss to Mississippi State close? Is a 24-7 loss to So. Carolina close? Is a 21-0 loss to Georgia close? Well, not in my opinion. I think any loss by more than 10 points would not be considered close. Secondly, if you think they will have 50K+ in the cold rainy environment of the Kroger Produce Section you must be smoking some big blue weed. Would be surprised to see more than 30K there and 5-10K May be Card fans. Thirdly, again, the wins since Bowden took over are against Ark, Missouri, Vandy and Tenn-Martin. Not exactly murders row by any stretch. Check me, but I believe these four teams have only 4 wins over Power Five Teams this season.
My point was and is that KY. may be a bit of a paper tiger (or wildcat). They’ve lost to some bad teams, haven’t beaten ANY good team and their stats are padded by beating only the very worst SEC teams and a few MAC and OVC teams.

 

[LeFors4Ever]

Sorry, I’m a little confused by, “They’ve done a great job of keeping things close even in their losses”. Is a 28-13 loss to Mississippi State close? Is a 24-7 loss to So. Carolina close? Is a 21-0 loss to Georgia close? Well, not in my opinion. I think any loss by more than 10 points would not be considered close. Secondly, if you think they will have 50K+ in the cold rainy environment of the Kroger Produce Section you must be smoking some big blue weed. Would be surprised to see more than 30K there and 5-10K May be Card fans. Thirdly, again, the wins since Bowden took over are against Ark, Missouri, Vandy and Tenn-Martin. Not exactly murders row by any stretch. Check me, but I believe these four teams have only 4 wins over Power Five Teams this season.
My point was and is that KY. may be a bit of a paper tiger (or wildcat). They’ve lost to some bad teams, haven’t beaten ANY good team and their stats are padded by beating only the very worst SEC teams and a few MAC and OVC teams.

If you think there’s only going to be 30k in Save-A-Lot Field/Stadium Saturday you just are living in a different world. Those rednecks live to beat us, and they’ll show their face when they’re decent and favored against us. It’s their super bowl, they’ll be out in full blueneck glory.

Close means that you have a chance to win late in the game. Their defense in 2 of those games were pretty much on the field the entire game and kept it close, but the offense didn’t back them up. And that was under their old strategy, now they’re doing a lot more clock control. Box scores can be very misleading, say a team is down 3-0 with 4 minutes to go and then gives up 2 late touchdowns, it’s 17-0 but that doesn’t mean the game wasn’t close.

Their South Carolina game was close considering they pretty much went 3 and out the entire game. Same with their Mississippi State game. But then again, those games were from a different team. Their Georgia game was 0-0 until late in the 3rd quarter. And if you look at the numbers and the score situations from those games, their defense did keep them in games.

So yes, their defense can keep it close and have kept them close in every game. And against our defense, they will be eating up clock. For an offense that cannot pass, keeping every team under 30 points is tough to do. Now yes, their numbers are a bit better because of the slow grind of the SEC, but still those numbers are those numbers.

 

[OlhamCardinal]

If you think there’s only going to be 30k in Save-A-Lot Field/Stadium Saturday you just are living in a different world. Those rednecks live to beat us, and they’ll show their face when they’re decent and favored against us. It’s their super bowl, they’ll be out in full blueneck glory.

Close means that you have a chance to win late in the game. Their defense in 2 of those games were pretty much on the field the entire game and kept it close, but the offense didn’t back them up. And that was under their old strategy, now they’re doing a lot more clock control. Box scores can be very misleading, say a team is down 3-0 with 4 minutes to go and then gives up 2 late touchdowns, it’s 17-0 but that doesn’t mean the game wasn’t close.

Their South Carolina game was close considering they pretty much went 3 and out the entire game. Same with their Mississippi State game. But then again, those games were from a different team. Their Georgia game was 0-0 until late in the 3rd quarter. And if you look at the numbers and the score situations from those games, their defense did keep them in games.

So yes, their defense can keep it close and have kept them close in every game. And against our defense, they will be eating up clock. For an offense that cannot pass, keeping every team under 30 points is tough to do. Now yes, their numbers are a bit better because of the slow grind of the SEC, but still those numbers are those numbers.

You can redefine “close” anyway you like but these scores I listed are the scores that were.
So, what decent team has their vaunted defense stopped? Not for part of the game, but for the entire game? What good team have they beaten? Answer: No one and no one. My point.

 

[LeFors4Ever]

You can redefine “close” anyway you like but these scores I listed are the scores that were.
So, what decent team has their vaunted defense stopped? Not for part of the game, but for the entire game? What good team have they beaten? Answer: No one and no one. My point.

I mean they’ve played a schedule against 8 power 5 teams. Some good, some bad. Same as us and it evens out. They kept teams off the board.

You could say who have we scored on, guess what? We scored on 8 power 5 teams and we played Notre Dame. We put up points.

They’ve played 2 ranked teams and we’ve played 2 ranked teams (3 if Virginia is ranked, haven’t checked). We beat above average Virginia & Wake Forrest, they beat average Missouri.

Different conference are just different in power 5, can’t really say better/worse based on matchup. We are way faster, but they’re bigger and more physical. Can’t really say 1 team is this and that, the analytics say we are pretty even. We will find out on the field. All I can do is see what I’ve watched from them and us, they’re a solid football team thats going to be bowl eligible against a slate of 9 Power 5 teams and us bowl eligible against 9 + Notre Dame.

Like @zipp has said on here before, a power 5 schedule is a power 5 schedule.

 

[OlhamCardinal]

I mean they’ve played a schedule against 8 power 5 teams. Some good, some bad. Same as us and it evens out. They kept teams off the board.

You could say who have we scored on, guess what? We scored on 8 power 5 teams and we played Notre Dame. We put up points.

They’ve played 2 ranked teams and we’ve played 2 ranked teams (3 if Virginia is ranked, haven’t checked). We beat above average Virginia & Wake Forrest, they beat average Missouri.

Different conference are just different in power 5, can’t really say better/worse based on matchup. We are way faster, but they’re bigger and more physical. Can’t really say 1 team is this and that, the analytics say we are pretty even. We will find out on the field. All I can do is see what I’ve watched from them and us, they’re a solid football team thats going to be bowl eligible against a slate of 9 Power 5 teams and us bowl eligible against 9 + Notre Dame.

Like @zipp has said on here before, a power 5 schedule is a power 5 schedule.

I repeat, what decent team has their vaunted defense stopped and what good team have they beaten?

 

[LeFors4Ever]

I repeat, what decent team has their vaunted defense stopped and what good team have they beaten?

And what vaunted defense have we scored on? Like can we know for sure we aren’t a good offense based on the teams we’ve played. Just to play devil’s advocate.

Once again.
They’ve played 11 games and 8 against power 5 teams. They haven’t allowed more than 30 points. That’s a trend.

I mean you could make the case we aren’t a vaunted offense, but guess what? The numbers and trends say we are a good offense. Same with their defense.

Again I don’t think they’re elite, but they have a good defense. And looking at our, we’ve played some pretty bad offenses and still allowed a lot of points, so yeah you can tell the difference between good and bad, because I’d trade ours for theirs in a heartbeat.

 

[OlhamCardinal]

Your Honor, the witness refuses to answer the question. What decent team has their vaunted defense stopped and what good team have they beaten?
Your Honor, maybe it would help if I reframed the questions.
1. Has UK’s vaunted defense stopped a decent team, yes or no.
2. Has UK beaten a good team this year, yes or no.
Your witness!

 

[KozmasAgain]

The reason Kentucky has a good run game is because they don’t have a passing game. I think our defense will load the box early to stop the run and force Kentucky to pass. This is a game that I think we can play them man to man on the pass and come ahead.

 

[LeFors4Ever]

Your Honor, the witness refuses to answer the question. What decent team has their vaunted defense stopped and what good team have they beaten?
Your Honor, maybe it would help if I reframed the questions.
1. Has UK’s vaunted defense stopped a decent team, yes or no.
2. Has UK beaten a good team this year, yes or no.
Your witness!

1. I mean that’s subjective counselor. Now I’d say their defense played pretty good against Florida. Their Georgia game was a downpour from what everyone else says. Tennessee down the stretch of the year actually has been a pretty good offensive team. Pruitt is probably behind Satterfield in turning around a team in despair.

2. No they haven’t beaten a good team.

But do any of those things mean we’ve beaten better teams or that we’re clearly a better team that can score on them, no. We find out Saturday.

 

[WeRUL]

I’m selling on UK myself. Easy schedule with perfect weather for their style when playing their only decent opponents (Mizzou,Tennessee,Georgia). I think Mizzou beats them if the weather was dry and their QB didn’t get hurt early. Tennessee made some horrible blunders at the most critical times or they win by 2 touchdowns or more. Georgia on a dry surface steamrolls them. I only watched the Mizzou and Tennessee games and I think Louisville wins this one.