State of the program

Sep 9, 2015
2,115
591
113
IMO NU’s biggest problem right now isn’t coaching or evaluation. It’s money. The NIL gap is shaping everything about this roster.

Martinelli took a hometown discount. Around $2M is probably half of what he could’ve gotten on the open market. They gave Tre a deal that was competitive but still below market. This year they couldn’t afford plug n play transfers and went for developmental ones. That’s where NU is operating. Close, but not enough.

And this isn’t even about going out and winning bidding wars for top portal guys. This is about having enough to retain your hits and add real rotation players around them. Right now they’re struggling to do both. When you can’t consistently keep your core, continuity falls apart fast.

It’s also why it’s tough to put this on Collins. You can’t build a real Big Ten roster if you don’t have the budget to keep your best players or bring in plug and play help. Development still matters, but it only works if you can actually keep the guys you develop.

The realistic path with the current setup is pretty narrow. Retain as much of the core as possible. Find undervalued portal pieces. Try to peak when those guys are upperclassmen. That can get you competitive teams and occasional tournament runs, but it’s not how you live near the top of the league.

If NU wants to seriously compete, the NIL pool has to increase. At minimum, enough to retain core pieces and add real depth. Otherwise you’re asking coaching to make up for a talent and resource gap, and that’s just not sustainable in this era and in this league.
 

Purple Pile Driver

All-Conference
May 14, 2014
27,613
2,956
113
Two years ago, it was considered absolutely unfathomable that Coleman Hawkins got $2 million to transfer to Kansas State as a 5th year grad student, and now freshmen at NU are making $1 million. This will burst at some point, it's just a matter of how crazy it gets before something has to give.
What Freshman at NU has ever made $1M for that season? If you are referencing Tre, the shuttlebutt is NU offered him $1M for next season. He allegedly has offers in the $1.2M range from a SEC school and a few in the B1G 12. Tre was rumored to have a $400k figure as a Freshman. Sounds about right.
 

macarthur31

Junior
Nov 9, 2006
1,658
244
63
I align that NU has to catch up in NIL payroll. That's a big lever. But look at Indiana this past year to show that payroll alone doesn't guarantee success. They had a $32M budget for men's hoops this year, and while that had to cover Woodson's buyout, DeVries buyout, safe to assume a large chunk of it was and dwarfed anything NU put together.

However, NU also has policies which limit the pool that they can bring in (like rising seniors not being eligible), they may need to examine those.

There's also the portal scouting and recruitment process. NU has done this for high school level, but how have they built up the capacity to assess portal talent and then execute the visits within a compressed window? NU is obviously not alone in trying to navigate new terrain, but man, I'm hoping Coach is a quick study.
 

NVAcat

Redshirt
Nov 27, 2017
197
7
18
IMO NU’s biggest problem right now isn’t coaching or evaluation. It’s money. The NIL gap is shaping everything about this roster.

Martinelli took a hometown discount. Around $2M is probably half of what he could’ve gotten on the open market. They gave Tre a deal that was competitive but still below market. This year they couldn’t afford plug n play transfers and went for developmental ones. That’s where NU is operating. Close, but not enough.

And this isn’t even about going out and winning bidding wars for top portal guys. This is about having enough to retain your hits and add real rotation players around them. Right now they’re struggling to do both. When you can’t consistently keep your core, continuity falls apart fast.

It’s also why it’s tough to put this on Collins. You can’t build a real Big Ten roster if you don’t have the budget to keep your best players or bring in plug and play help. Development still matters, but it only works if you can actually keep the guys you develop.

The realistic path with the current setup is pretty narrow. Retain as much of the core as possible. Find undervalued portal pieces. Try to peak when those guys are upperclassmen. That can get you competitive teams and occasional tournament runs, but it’s not how you live near the top of the league.

If NU wants to seriously compete, the NIL pool has to increase. At minimum, enough to retain core pieces and add real depth. Otherwise you’re asking coaching to make up for a talent and resource gap, and that’s just not sustainable in this era and in this league.
Nailed it.
 

NUera

Redshirt
May 29, 2001
6,398
45
35
A few years back I said NIL and the portal were gonna turn us into a minor league program, even though at the time NIL was still in its infancy. Then for a minute it seemed like we’d avoid it. But it turns out the Reaper was just busy collecting the souls of other programs, and now he’s arrived for ours.
 

hdhntr1

All-Conference
Sep 5, 2006
37,658
1,271
113
Two years ago, it was considered absolutely unfathomable that Coleman Hawkins got $2 million to transfer to Kansas State as a 5th year grad student, and now freshmen at NU are making $1 million. This will burst at some point, it's just a matter of how crazy it gets before something has to give.
When enough teams put up big money to put together their teams and a whole bunch fail so the supporters get tired of seeing their monies pissed away with nothing to show for it
 

Zootcat

Redshirt
Nov 17, 2008
1,123
11
38
Just curious, do we know Purdue’s approximate NIL expense? I know Purdue isn’t a perfect proxy for our program, but they retained their core the last several years, and had a lot of success.
 

Baz = Heisman

Junior
Aug 15, 2025
541
326
63
Man, this sure is depressing. College sports is turning into the MLB where you have the L.A. Dodgers competing in the same league as the Pittsburgh Pirates. It's pointless. College sports for many programs is becoming pointless.
Yup. Exactly right. And it’s going to make 3/4s of the programs completely hopeless. But “player empowerment” I’m told by Jay Bilas and his gang of allegedly smart thugs… they missed the entire point of the game for quick cash.
 

DaCat

All-Conference
May 29, 2001
25,577
1,984
113
If the program is serious about being a legit B1G team, at least a $10M NIL war chest is needed for this upcoming season.
 
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AdamOnFirst

All-Conference
Nov 29, 2021
10,065
1,658
113
Man, this sure is depressing. College sports is turning into the MLB where you have the L.A. Dodgers competing in the same league as the Pittsburgh Pirates. It's pointless. College sports for many programs is becoming pointless.
Except we’re not the pirates, we lucked into being in one of the two high revenue conferences.
 
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EagerFan

Sophomore
Dec 24, 2010
3,190
181
63
Having the money to spend is important, but being able to accurately identify and develop talent is still more important. Indiana is just one example of big name teams spending ludicrous money on players and still barely achieving mediocre results.

I'd point out that Painter's success in retaining long term players was likely significantly bolstered by taking his team to the tournament every year it's been held for the last twelve years, including recent trips to the sweet sixteen, the elite eight, and the championship game.
 

GatoLouco

Sophomore
Nov 13, 2019
5,669
170
63
In sum, we don’t have money to retain, let alone to attract.

I’d be panicking of my fandom was not fading. I feel old, but I don’t like what this has turned into.
 

Purple Pile Driver

All-Conference
May 14, 2014
27,613
2,956
113
In sum, we don’t have money to retain, let alone to attract.

I’d be panicking of my fandom was not fading. I feel old, but I don’t like what this has turned into.
I think there is way too much doom and gloom about the basketball program right now. It sucks that Tre is leaving, but the rest of the portal players are not being wooed away from NU due to obscene monetary offers. I am not convinced yet that they are even losses.

This has something to do with realistic expectations. We don’t and probably never will have the financial resources to battle the Michigan’s, North Carolina, Kansas, Kentucky, UConn crowd, but neither do 330 other D1 programs. What we should be able to do is have enough resources to compete with most B1G teams and have more than enough to field a team that is light years better than others in far worse shape. You manage the cash you have and we have a huge head start on most programs by having the golden ticket of B1G membership.

I will wait to see what we bring in from the portal before I jump off the ledge.