Surprise player of 2h B1G season

[ricko6543211]

After two losses it seems like we've quickly deteriorated into does Collins suck / Lathon ugh / PG problems / next year might be worse / woe is us. So how about a more optimistic topic.

Which player is most likely to surprise to the upside in the last 10 games of conference season? Some options...

- Falzon to continue his hot shooting and earn more minutes?
- Kopp plays more solid and consistent two-way basketball
- A lot of people seem to be high on Greer around here
- Vic might find his legs back and regain his form on offense
- Nance was an obvious choice a couple weeks ago, but probably less likely after the illness

But I'll go with Turner... he's shown little consistency, struggling the last couple games, but I think there's more talent there. Hoping he has a bounce back game against PSU, and then re-establishes himself as a core player the rest of the way. He was very good on D for the first half of the season, but seems he's gotten a bit discouraged. If he can find his shooting stroke on offense (we need SOMEONE to stretch the floor) then I think the defensive play will raise back to its initial level.

 

[DaCat]

I hope Kopp gets more minutes, it seems he's starting to play better and ready to make a bigger impact.

 

[CappyNU]

Over the past 3 games, the only players who, when they've been on the court, have had the team offense be better than the overall game's offense are Kopp and Falzon. Only Falzon has had a positive +/- in each of the last 3 games. Kopp getting burned on defense will keep him from getting more minutes, so my vote is on Falzon to keep up the pace provided he remains healthy. Hard to overstate the impact of a veteran who's worked so hard to get back on the court, and it's not just the shooting. Last year lineups featuring Falzon had better numbers defensively than lineups featuring any other defensive player, and this year he's second on the team (first place? Benson).

 

[NUCat320]

Turner stands to benefit as Greer gets more minutes.

Turner is a nice player, but not the 35mpg guy he was in the early conference games. A few more possessions on the bench, or off the ball alongside Greer, will help him. (I’ll admit that I haven’t paid enough attention to know if Greer and Turner have played together.)

I see Taylor losing minutes to Kopp/Falzon in the back half of the season, with Gaines spending more time as the nominal shooting guard versus the 3.

 

[DaCat]

I wouldn't mind seeing Greer take over the keys to offense at this point in the season. Let him sink or swim. He's shown enough promise that he could bring big dividends next year if we invest in him more now.

 

[CappyNU]

Turner stands to benefit as Greer gets more minutes.

Turner is a nice player, but not the 35mpg guy he was in the early conference games. A few more possessions on the bench, or off the ball alongside Greer, will help him. (I’ll admit that I haven’t paid enough attention to know if Greer and Turner have played together.)

I see Taylor losing minutes to Kopp/Falzon in the back half of the season, with Gaines spending more time as the nominal shooting guard versus the 3.

Greer has been on the court with Turner for roughly 30 minutes of B1G play (7.5%), those lineup combinations are -19 with PPP numbers of .89/1.20.
Not great.

 

[mikewebb68]

Gaines, not because he has been all that bad the first half, but I think he is ready to explode in the second half. Improves on offense each game, imo.

 

[ricko6543211]

Gaines, not because he has been all that bad the first half, but I think he is ready to explode in the second half. Improves on offense each game, imo.

Yeah. If he could develop consistence and confidence in his 3 point shot he could really take that next step.

 

[IGNORE]

Gaines, not because he has been all that bad the first half, but I think he is ready to explode in the second half. Improves on offense each game, imo.

Well, no explosion here.

 

[mikewebb68]

Well, no explosion here.

If you're going to bring up all these old posts to troll, at least try to find one where I was way off the mark every once in awhile.

Here were Gaines' stats prior to January:

4.5 PPG, 3.7 RPG

Here were Gaines' stats in January and beyond, against FAR tougher competition

8.5 PPG, 5.4 RPG,

So, as the thread was titled "Who was the surprise player of the 2nd half of the BIG 10 Season?" I do believe the answer was Anthony Games, unless you have a better candidate...

 

[IGNORE]

If you're going to bring up all these old posts to troll, at least try to find one where I was way off the mark every once in awhile.

Here were Gaines' stats prior to January:

4.5 PPG, 3.7 RPG

Here were Gaines' stats in January and beyond, against FAR tougher competition

8.5 PPG, 5.4 RPG,

So, as the thread was titled "Who was the surprise player of the 2nd half of the BIG 10 Season?" I do believe the answer was Anthony Games, unless you have a better candidate...

I would like to say I was surprised that no one became that stand out player. But I wsnt.

 

[NJCat]

I would like to say I was surprised that no one became that stand out player. But I wsnt.

The team went 3-13 in the second half of the season. Ugh.

 

[freewillie07]

Well, no explosion here.

I expected more from your archival digging, to be honest. My memory seemed to be that Mike was wildly optimistic, but this so far has proven he was pretty even-keeled.

To say “no explosion” is subjective. And there’s no question that Gaines was better on offense as the season progressed, even if the numbers didn’t show it. He picked his spots.

 

[IGNORE]

I expected more from your archival digging, to be honest. My memory seemed to be that Mike was wildly optimistic, but this so far has proven he was pretty even-keeled.

To say “no explosion” is subjective. And there’s no question that Gaines was better on offense as the season progressed, even if the numbers didn’t show it. He picked his spots.

Maybe Monday

 

[CappyNU]

If you're going to bring up all these old posts to troll, at least try to find one where I was way off the mark every once in awhile.

Here were Gaines' stats prior to January:

4.5 PPG, 3.7 RPG

Here were Gaines' stats in January and beyond, against FAR tougher competition

8.5 PPG, 5.4 RPG,

So, as the thread was titled "Who was the surprise player of the 2nd half of the BIG 10 Season?" I do believe the answer was Anthony Games, unless you have a better candidate...

While Gaines may have had better individual stats, I don't believe he should be considered the surprise player of the 2nd half last year.

1st half stats:
Team offensive performance with Gaines on-court: 0.98 PPP/ 1.03 oPPP, -23 in 73% of minutes (expected +/- was -56, so Gaines was +33 over expectation).
Team overall performance was 0.92 PPP/ 1.04 oPPP, -77.

2nd half stats:
Team offensive performance with Gaines on-court: 0.95 PPP/ 1.02 oPPP, -48 in 74% of minutes (expected +/- was -41, so Gaines was -7 under expectation).
Team overall performance was 0.92 PPP/ 1.00 oPPP, -56.

Very few players performed better in the second half of the season compared to the first, really only Law, Pardon, Turner and Kopp improved looking at an efficiency and +/- standpoint.

1st half stats:
Team offensive performance with [X] on-court:
Law - 0.94 PPP/ 1.04 oPPP, -42 in 82% of minutes (expected +/- was -47, +5 over expectation).
Pardon - 0.90 PPP/ 1.09 oPPP, -99 in 83% of minutes (expected +/- was -64, -35 under expectation).
Turner - 0.94 PPP/ 1.09 oPPP, -74 in 73% of minutes (expected +/- was -56, -18 under expectation).
Kopp - 0.88 PPP/ 1.06 oPPP, -41 in 35% of minutes (expected +/- was -27, -14 under expectation).
Team overall performance was 0.92 PPP/ 1.04 oPPP, -77.

2nd half stats:
Team offensive performance with [X] on-court:
Law - 0.93 PPP/ 0.99 oPPP, -21 in 84% of minutes (expected +/- was -43, +22 over expectation).
Pardon - 0.95 PPP/ 1.02 oPPP, -45 in 89% of minutes (expected +/- was -50, +5 over expectation).
Turner - 0.95 PPP/ 1.02 oPPP, -36 in 68% of minutes (expected +/- was -38, +2 over expectation).
Kopp - 0.92 PPP/ 0.99 oPPP, -30 in 52% of minutes (expected +/- was -29, +1 over expectation).
Team overall performance was 0.92 PPP/ 1.00 oPPP, -56.

Pardon had best jump of any player, but there's no surprise there, Turner recovered from injury to play much better at the end, but Kopp has to be the guy who was surprise player of the 2nd half as he improved significantly while playing many more minutes.

 

[mikewebb68]

While Gaines may have had better individual stats, I don't believe he should be considered the surprise player of the 2nd half last year.

Pre-Jan stats:
Team offensive performance with Gaines on-court: 0.98 PPP/ 1.03 oPPP, -23 in 73% of minutes (expected +/- was -56, so Gaines was +33 over expectation).
Team overall performance was 0.92 PPP/ 1.04 oPPP, -77.

Post-Jan stats:
Team offensive performance with Gaines on-court: 0.95 PPP/ 1.02 oPPP, -48 in 74% of minutes (expected +/- was -41, so Gaines was -7 under expectation).
Team overall performance was 0.92 PPP/ 1.00 oPPP, -56.

Very few players performed better in the second half of the season compared to the first, really only Law, Pardon, Turner and Kopp improved looking at an efficiency and +/- standpoint.

Pre-Jan stats:
Team offensive performance with [X] on-court:
Law - 0.94 PPP/ 1.04 oPPP, -42 in 82% of minutes (expected +/- was -47, +5 over expectation).
Pardon - 0.90 PPP/ 1.09 oPPP, -99 in 83% of minutes (expected +/- was -64, -35 under expectation).
Turner - 0.94 PPP/ 1.09 oPPP, -74 in 73% of minutes (expected +/- was -56, -18 under expectation).
Kopp - 0.88 PPP/ 1.06 oPPP, -41 in 35% of minutes (expected +/- was -27, -14 under expectation).
Team overall performance was 0.92 PPP/ 1.04 oPPP, -77.

Post-Jan stats:
Team offensive performance with [X] on-court:
Law - 0.93 PPP/ 0.99 oPPP, -21 in 84% of minutes (expected +/- was -43, +22 over expectation).
Pardon - 0.95 PPP/ 1.02 oPPP, -45 in 89% of minutes (expected +/- was -50, +5 over expectation).
Turner - 0.95 PPP/ 1.02 oPPP, -36 in 68% of minutes (expected +/- was -38, +2 over expectation).
Kopp - 0.92 PPP/ 0.99 oPPP, -30 in 52% of minutes (expected +/- was -29, +1 over expectation).
Team overall performance was 0.92 PPP/ 1.00 oPPP, -56.

Pardon had best jump of any player, but there's no surprise there, Turner recovered from injury to play much better at the end, but Kopp has to be the guy who was surprise player of the 2nd half as he improved significantly while playing many more minutes.

So you concur with Bob that my prediction at the time that Gaines would have a far stronger second half was sufficiently ridiculous for him to bring up this thread again? Do individual stats, which he dramatically improved in the second half, mean nothing?

 

[IGNORE]

So you concur with Bob that my prediction at the time that Gaines would have a far stronger second half was sufficiently ridiculous for him to bring up this thread again? Do individual stats, which he dramatically improved in the second half, mean nothing?

Calm down Mike. You can make some of the people happy some of the time but none of the people happy all the time.

 

[mikewebb68]

Calm down Mike. You can make some of the people happy some of the time but none of the people happy all the time.

I'm quite calm, thank you. Was just curious for his response because he threw out a bunch of advanced stats there, and, to me, it's all about the simple ones; did he score more and did he rebound more?

 

[IGNORE]

I'm quite calm, thank you. Was just curious for his response because he threw out a bunch of advanced stats there, and, to me, it's all about the simple ones; did he score more and did he rebound more?

Stats are fun losers. Or is it stars? All I count are wins.

 

[mikewebb68]

Stats are fun losers. Or is it stars? All I count are wins.

And you'll be counting a lot of those, beginning in 2020-21. Hope you enjoy them!

 

[CappyNU]

So you concur with Bob that my prediction at the time that Gaines would have a far stronger second half was sufficiently ridiculous for him to bring up this thread again? Do individual stats, which he dramatically improved in the second half, mean nothing?

Well, for one thing, your post about Gaines being the surprise second-half player was on Feb 1, but your stats breakdown broke it down into pre-January and post-December, where the better comparison would have been Gaines' numbers pre-Feb and post-January.

Taken in that light, just looking at B1G games, in the first half of the conference season Gaines averaged 8.3 points and 5.5 boards, and in the second half, he averaged 7.7 points and 5.1 boards.

 

[IGNORE]

And you'll be counting a lot of those, beginning in 2020-21. Hope you enjoy them!

Boy, let's hope this won't become an archive wonder piece...