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"The barely undefeated, about-to-lose Kentucky Wildcats"

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bigbluelou

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Apr 13, 2011
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According to this guy at CNBC. (Clearly a basketball expert...see bio below.)


"I think Kentucky is off to a hot start this season," said [Ed] Feng. "It's the opposite of last season, when they started preseason No. 1, but struggled during the regular season." Feng points out that "they only really played well in the tournament," and his analysis of the numbers shows that this year, "the real Kentucky is somewhere between last year's and this year's team."

So look out for a loss. Don't be surprised when it comes. It probably won't be Tuesday night against a weak Missouri team, but it might be sooner than you think.


Notes

The author is Eric Chemi, Senior Editor-at-Large, Data Journalism. Before that, he worked at Bloomberg TV and Businessweek as head of data and research. He previously worked as a trader at JPMorgan and Fortress Investment Group. Chemi graduated with a degree in Electrical Engineering and Computer Science from MIT.

Ed Feng is the founder of the Power Rank, a sports data information service. Feng holds a Ph.D. and is a math whiz. He admits that Kentucky in any given game should be the winner.




This post was edited on 1/13 1:08 PM by bigbluelou
 
J

jarms24

All-American
Mar 31, 2010
92,715
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My wife was barely pregnant twice. I lost a ton of sleep over that near miss.
 
J

jwheat

Heisman
Aug 21, 2005
97,626
24,206
42
Are we anymore "barely undefeated" than Virginia?


We are a lot more undefeated than every other team
 
C

catfaninsc_rivals377375

Heisman
Feb 3, 2006
9,078
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Originally posted by GLR5555:


Originally posted by ymmot31:

Working on my second million Jason, its' no big deal really.
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Same here. Gave up on the first.
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I needed a good laugh today.
 
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BlueFE

Redshirt
Jan 13, 2010
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The break on the data is absolutely ridiculous as well. At one point in the article, the author offers a comment that even if Kentucky were 90% favorites in every game, that still implies that they should lose one out of every ten games. What? So the authors attaches a singular set of data (one game) and tries to blanket it across the whole (the remaining season)? In what realm of data analysis would anyone be allowed to make that kind of asinine statement? His entire conjecture and premise reek of fallacies as that is NOT how data is to be interpreted.
 
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Gary4UK

All-American
Jun 20, 2004
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Might is the key word..... Some people can make a living saying might....
 
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maverick1_rivals376538

Heisman
Nov 14, 2001
17,294
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Ease up on the writer guys, I can see his point. For instance, a couple years ago I saw a dude barely bowl a 300 game in a tourney on TV. In like the fourth or fifth frame the 7 pin teetered a bit before finally falling. The guy was still pretty pissed about it when he finished the match.
 
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bigbluelou

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Apr 13, 2011
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Originally posted by maverick1:
Ease up on the writer guys, I can see his point. For instance, a couple years ago I saw a dude barely bowl a 300 game in a tourney on TV. In like the fourth or fifth frame the 7 pin teetered a bit before finally falling. The guy was still pretty pissed about it when he finished the match.
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I *almost* didn't LOL at this and spew Diet Mountain Dew all over my keyboard.
 
P

preacherfan

All-Conference
Oct 11, 2003
28,467
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Originally posted by bigbluelou:


Originally posted by maverick1:
Ease up on the writer guys, I can see his point. For instance, a couple years ago I saw a dude barely bowl a 300 game in a tourney on TV. In like the fourth or fifth frame the 7 pin teetered a bit before finally falling. The guy was still pretty pissed about it when he finished the match.
Click to expand...
I *almost* didn't LOL at this and spew Diet Mountain Dew all over my keyboard.
Click to expand...
Now, I know why I like you! You also drink Diet Mt Dew! I just bought 15 2-litre bottles at Wal-mart. It was on sale for $1.
 
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bigbluelou

All-American
Apr 13, 2011
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Originally posted by preacherfan:
Originally posted by bigbluelou:


Originally posted by maverick1:
Ease up on the writer guys, I can see his point. For instance, a couple years ago I saw a dude barely bowl a 300 game in a tourney on TV. In like the fourth or fifth frame the 7 pin teetered a bit before finally falling. The guy was still pretty pissed about it when he finished the match.
Click to expand...
I *almost* didn't LOL at this and spew Diet Mountain Dew all over my keyboard.
Click to expand...
Now, I know why I like you! You also drink Diet Mt Dew! I just bought 15 2-litre bottles at Wal-mart. It was on sale for $1.
Click to expand...
Oh heck, there are MANY reasons to like me! Just ask me and I'll tell you.


Big DMD fan here. That's a good buy on the 2-liters! My son is working for Pepsico part-time while finishing his undergrad (if he ever does.) Anyway, he can purchase "damaged" goods that can't be put out on store shelves. I can get 12-packs for $1.25 all the time. I just bought twelve 12-packs of various flavors for $15.00...the extra fridge in the garage is well-stocked.
 
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barryn2000

Senior
Dec 8, 2006
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Barely Undefeated...brought to you by the makers of "Almost Pregnant"™ and "Accidentally On Purpose"™
 
J

JimmyJimmy

All-Conference
Apr 26, 2005
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I all ways heard Cats have nine lives. Minus three ot' s we still have six to go...lol. Go Big Blue
 
Blueaz

Blueaz

Heisman
Jul 7, 2009
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Originally posted by barryn2000:
Barely Undefeated...brought to you by the makers of "Almost Pregnant"™ and "Accidentally On Purpose"™
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I use the phrase " it's like being a kinda pregnant" all the time...LOL
 
B

bigbluelou

All-American
Apr 13, 2011
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Originally posted by ColonelCat:
If we don't lose, we will remain undefeated. I believe my math's correct. 4 out of 3 people struggle with math.
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Also remember that 82.3% of all statistics are made up on the spot.
 
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preacherfan

All-Conference
Oct 11, 2003
28,467
3,691
113
Originally posted by bigbluelou:


Originally posted by preacherfan:

Originally posted by bigbluelou:



Originally posted by maverick1:
Ease up on the writer guys, I can see his point. For instance, a couple years ago I saw a dude barely bowl a 300 game in a tourney on TV. In like the fourth or fifth frame the 7 pin teetered a bit before finally falling. The guy was still pretty pissed about it when he finished the match.
Click to expand...
I *almost* didn't LOL at this and spew Diet Mountain Dew all over my keyboard.
Click to expand...
Now, I know why I like you! You also drink Diet Mt Dew! I just bought 15 2-litre bottles at Wal-mart. It was on sale for $1.
Click to expand...
Oh heck, there are MANY reasons to like me! Just ask me and I'll tell you.


Big DMD fan here. That's a good buy on the 2-liters! My son is working for Pepsico part-time while finishing his undergrad (if he ever does.) Anyway, he can purchase "damaged" goods that can't be put out on store shelves. I can get 12-packs for $1.25 all the time. I just bought twelve 12-packs of various flavors for $15.00...the extra fridge in the garage is well-stocked.
Click to expand...
I am envious! Wowsers! That iis a good deal!
 
T

Tummygoat

Junior
Jul 7, 2002
873
206
0
Alabama will be tough on Saturday. I don't see us overlooking LSU, but Bama can be sneaky for us.
 
M

maverick1_rivals376538

Heisman
Nov 14, 2001
17,294
25,630
0
Originally posted by bigbluelou:
I can get 12-packs for $1.25 all the time. I just bought twelve 12-packs of various flavors for $15.00...the extra fridge in the garage is well-stocked.
Click to expand...
May I come live with you? I don't need a room or bed, just access to that extra fridge. TIA
 
U

UKWildcats#8

All-American
Jun 25, 2011
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Originally posted by Tummygoat:
Alabama will be tough on Saturday. I don't see us overlooking LSU, but Bama can be sneaky for us.
Click to expand...
Overlook Alabama? The team that beat A&M by 21 while we had to go to double OT to beat them? I doubt it.
 
F

fuzz77

All-Conference
Sep 19, 2012
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Originally posted by BlueFE:
The break on the data is absolutely ridiculous as well. At one point in the article, the author offers a comment that even if Kentucky were 90% favorites in every game, that still implies that they should lose one out of every ten games. What? So the authors attaches a singular set of data (one game) and tries to blanket it across the whole (the remaining season)? In what realm of data analysis would anyone be allowed to make that kind of asinine statement? His entire conjecture and premise reek of fallacies as that is NOT how data is to be interpreted.
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The likelihood that you will win a game is different for every game. That said...yes, a favorite who has a 90% chance of winning will lose 10% of the time vs that opponent. Thing is, you don't play anyone 10 times in a season...but again, if you are a 90% favorite each time then chances are that you will lose 10% of the time.
Will it happen??? In any one season, who knows because the sample size is too small. It's like flipping a coin. There's a 50% chance that it will land on Heads each time you flip the coin. Now you might flip it 10 times and get 8 Heads and 2 Tails but if you flipped the coin 10,000 times then you will likely come really close to the 50/50 distribution.

Seeing that they guy is a math wiz, he's only looking at the numbers and reporting the probabilities...which is exactly what Vegas looks at to set their odds.
 
P

Panthur

Heisman
Aug 5, 2008
9,225
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Originally posted by bigbluelou:

You know, you're right. I'm a little off center today...I promise to pick my game up on my very next post!
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Tweak It, Lou!!!!
 
B

Blueisbest

All-American
Mar 22, 2003
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Sounds like another hack job from a barely educated, about to be unemployed journalist.
 
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