The Case for Optimism

[7th Cir. Cat]

Someone please explain it to me.

The consensus is that next year will be a bust. At that point, CC’s teams will have finished 9th or lower in 6 of his 7 seasons at NU. The excitement re: the new facilities will be old news and there are still strict academic standards that limit the recruiting pool for NU. So why do we think that we will suddenly we will see an uptick in recruiting or a jump in our record?

Are we simply hoping that the trio of Bam Beran, and Kopp are categorically better than trios like Juice, Shurna Crawford, or Law, Lindsay, Pardon? Are we thinking that CC’s new coaching staff will be able to develop young players more effectively than in the past? Maybe eliminating the prohibition of high school players going directly to the NBA evens things out a little bit, i.e., Duke doesn’t have Zion and RJ Barret on the same team.


What’s the thought here?

What's the leap that we are going to take that allows us to start winning significant recruiting wars so that we can compete for a top 7 spot in the Big 10 and get back into the post-season conversation?

 

[bringbacktherantboard]

Well, we know that CC has built an NCAA Tourney team once. Yeah, it's a rebuilding year, but he should be given the opportunity to try to build another one, since he's the only NU coach who has ever shown that he can build one.

 

[NJCat]

Well, we know that CC has built an NCAA Tourney team once. Yeah, it's a rebuilding year, but he should be given the opportunity to try to build another one, since he's the only NU coach who has ever shown that he can build one.

Agree. The 2019-20 season probably won't be much different than the 2018-19 season record-wise, and might be uglier given the losses of by far the two best and most experienced players. But as Jersey Mike has said, recruiting seems to be on an upswing, the final piece of the facilities puzzle will be in place when the new practice digs open in ~November, and Collins will continue to gain head coaching experience.

Stay the course.

 

[Jonny2TheP]

I in no way think that this year is going to be an NCAA tourney year (that would really shock me), but I do think we are going to be better than people think. Law and Pardon were great players that we will miss, and they are players I really liked both on and off the court, but something was off about last year's team. For whatever reason, whether it be mental of related to team chemistry, it just didn't work. I am looking forward to seeing which players are going to step up and take over that leadership role. I see Turner having a better and more consistent year and being a guy we can go to late in games. Kopp was a guy that improved as the season went on last year and I expect another leap from him this year. Another year in the weight room for Nance and the experience he got last year should provide an uptick in his game this year as well.

I don't think we are going to be a really good team this year, but there are story lines with this year's team that I am excited to watch develop. And I like the new guys coming in this year and next. There is no doubt that Collins needs to have some success within the next two years (2020-21 is going to be HUGE year for him) or he may very well be on the hot seat, but I see reason for optimism with what we have on the team now and what we have coming in.

 

[7th Cir. Cat]

Well, we know that CC has built an NCAA Tourney team once. Yeah, it's a rebuilding year, but he should be given the opportunity to try to build another one, since he's the only NU coach who has ever shown that he can build one.

Let me be clear, I'm not saying that Collins should not be given the chance to build a tourney team, I'm just wondering what's going to change in the short-term to make you think that we have the right pieces in place. It sounds like most people believe that the incoming group of players is a cut above in raw talent than what we're used to seeing so we should give them time. With the exception of Bam, I'm not sure that's the case.

But maybe he's enough.

 

[bringbacktherantboard]

I'm just wondering what's going to change in the short-term to make you think that we have the right pieces in place.

Nothing, but I don't care. Rebuilding is a long-term thing. I play the long game.

 

[hdhntr1]

Someone please explain it to me.

The consensus is that next year will be a bust. At that point, CC’s teams will have finished 9th or lower in 6 of his 7 seasons at NU. The excitement re: the new facilities will be old news and there are still strict academic standards that limit the recruiting pool for NU. So why do we think that we will suddenly we will see an uptick in recruiting or a jump in our record?

Are we simply hoping that the trio of Bam Beran, and Kopp are categorically better than trios like Juice, Shurna Crawford, or Law, Lindsay, Pardon? Are we thinking that CC’s new coaching staff will be able to develop young players more effectively than in the past? Maybe eliminating the prohibition of high school players going directly to the NBA evens things out a little bit, i.e., Duke doesn’t have Zion and RJ Barret on the same team.


What’s the thought here?

What's the leap that we are going to take that allows us to start winning significant recruiting wars so that we can compete for a top 7 spot in the Big 10 and get back into the post-season conversation?

Have to feel we will start seeing light this year as we actually have guards and other guys will improve. Record likely to be slightly better but I think it will be a more entertaining team and more fun to watch

 

[hdhntr1]

Nothing, but I don't care. Rebuilding is a long-term thing. I play the long game.

You are Chinese?

 

[bringbacktherantboard]

You are Chinese?

Or else I'm following EvanstonCat's example.

 

[freewillie07]

As I said in another thread, I like some of the pieces on this team. The guys we all mention — Kopp, Nance, Beran, Bam — and I also think Young/Jones could surprise some people as Bigs.

I still wonder: where is the lead guard? Jonny said something was “off” last year — surely the lack of a ballhandler played a major role? I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the one Tourney team that Collins built included one of the top PGs in the conference.

I also can’t help but worry about the 2020 recruiting class, which is an important one and should be a relatively high-quantity one. I recognize that just with Bam, NU is already ahead of several other programs. But who is out there besides Bam to be an instant difference maker? I guess in a best-case scenario it’s R.J. Davis as LG, Osasere Ighodaro as a wing and Matthew Nicholson as a big?

To me it really comes back to the severe academic limits. Collins has proven he can get one top 75-100 player per class. The problem is other Big Ten teams get two or three. That squeezes the margin for error such that injuries to highly touted players like Falzon and Ivanauskas leave the program scrambling to patch things up.

 

[Max_Power]

As I said in another thread, I like some of the pieces on this team. The guys we all mention — Kopp, Nance, Beran, Bam — and I also think Young/Jones could surprise some people as Bigs.

I still wonder: where is the lead guard? Jonny said something was “off” last year — surely the lack of a ballhandler played a major role? I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the one Tourney team that Collins built included one of the top PGs in the conference.

I also can’t help but worry about the 2020 recruiting class, which is an important one and should be a relatively high-quantity one. I recognize that just with Bam, NU is already ahead of several other programs. But who is out there besides Bam to be an instant difference maker? I guess in a best-case scenario it’s R.J. Davis as LG, Osasere Ighodaro as a wing and Matthew Nicholson as a big?

To me it really comes back to the severe academic limits. Collins has proven he can get one top 75-100 player per class. The problem is other Big Ten teams get two or three. That squeezes the margin for error such that injuries to highly touted players like Falzon and Ivanauskas leave the program scrambling to patch things up.

Way the numbers set up for next year (20-21) roster, my guess is Collins takes only one more player in addition to Bam assuming he signs as expected. Roster for this year is 2/1/3/4. Next year it will be 1/3/5/1 with 3 more available. Any recruit Collins takes lowers his 21 total. I can't imagine he wants the roster to be 1/3/5/4 with only 1 new kid coming in 21. I would expect a grad transfer so its 2/3/5/2 with him holding a spot so he can get 3 in 21 and start to balance out the classes a bit - 3/5/2/3 seems more logical.

 

[bringbacktherantboard]

As I said in another thread, I like some of the pieces on this team. The guys we all mention — I still wonder: where is the lead guard? Jonny said something was “off” last year — surely the lack of a ballhandler played a major role? I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the one Tourney team that Collins built included one of the top PGs in the conference.

But we still had that same PG the following year, in the biggest disappointment of the Collins era. Something was "off" on that team, for sure, and it wasn't the PG, but I never really figured out what it was.

 

[freewillie07]

But we still had that same PG the following year, in the biggest disappointment of the Collins era. Something was "off" on that team, for sure, and it wasn't the PG, but I never really figured out what it was.

1) BMac was injured for a good chunk of that season

2) We have performed a full autopsy of that lost season and I think we can all safely say it was some combination of overconfidence (Top 25 preseason ranking), playing at Allstate, some bad breaks and possibly a breakdown in team chemistry without the leadership of Sanjay/Taphorn, and instead four “captains.”

 

[freewillie07]

Way the numbers set up for next year (20-21) roster, my guess is Collins takes only one more player in addition to Bam assuming he signs as expected. Roster for this year is 2/1/3/4. Next year it will be 1/3/5/1 with 3 more available. Any recruit Collins takes lowers his 21 total. I can't imagine he wants the roster to be 1/3/5/4 with only 1 new kid coming in 21. I would expect a grad transfer so its 2/3/5/2 with him holding a spot so he can get 3 in 21 and start to balance out the classes a bit - 3/5/2/3 seems more logical.

Fair point. That makes me feel at least a bit better.

I would hope he takes two more if they’re the “right” two. This program has faced too many injuries and transfers for anyone to assume that the classes will all fit together like that.

 

[GOUNUII]

Way the numbers set up for next year (20-21) roster, my guess is Collins takes only one more player in addition to Bam assuming he signs as expected. Roster for this year is 2/1/3/4. Next year it will be 1/3/5/1 with 3 more available. Any recruit Collins takes lowers his 21 total. I can't imagine he wants the roster to be 1/3/5/4 with only 1 new kid coming in 21. I would expect a grad transfer so its 2/3/5/2 with him holding a spot so he can get 3 in 21 and start to balance out the classes a bit - 3/5/2/3 seems more logical.

Collins has 4 more schollies to work with in the 20' and 21' classes. He needs a big, a wing forward, a lead/point guard and a best available. Hopefully the best available is another guard type with a good handle. Sometimes referred to as a combo guard. I believe he'll take those positional players when he can get them. Right now, he appears to be focusing on a lead guard and a Big to pair with Bam in the 20' class. With another wing forward and combo guard slated for 2021.

GOUNUII

 

[willycat]

But we still had that same PG the following year, in the biggest disappointment of the Collins era. Something was "off" on that team, for sure, and it wasn't the PG, but I never really figured out what it was.

Think it's been pretty much agreed upon that another senior on that team failed to show for many of the games.

 

[Medill90]

The singular reason for optimism is the talent. It would be great if the roster had more experience, but that will be fixed in time, likely with our fair share of losses.

It's one of the more interesting rosters in my, ahem, forty or more years of following NU basketball. Two guys -- Nance and Beran -- might be special. Sorry, but we've never had a Nance. If he settles down, covers his assignments on D and knocks down his shots it could be an eye opening year. If he's a mid range or around the basket reliable, forget about it. He wasn't last year, so that's a lot to add. Beran, as Collins said, is bouncy. Bouncy like Shurna, but technically a better shot and longer. Shurna his first year was a 6 or 7 ppg guy with limited minutes IIRC. Great if Beran can be in that ball park and grow.

If Kopp and Greer can drop that freshman stuff from last year and convert closer to where they were in high school...and not turn the ball over...it's a major plus.

Gaines was better last year. Can he smooth out some of his shooting issues (confidence).

I hope for AJ's sake he doesn't have to do as much of the pg stuff. I'd like to see him play wing and enjoy himself.

Certainly basketball is a talent sport, but it's also about chemistry. If the two big holes at center and pg can be patched, it's possible the chemistry kicks in. Really, really, it was rare that NU had a pg running the offense. NU desperately needs a pg to run its offense, and penetrating off the dribble, breaking down the opponent's perimeter D. Perhaps a committee of Bouie, Greer and Spencer are a step up from the pg **** show last year. Maybe there's dribble penetration...that would be something.

I'm hopeful for center. A guess is that collins starts nance at center to get him on the floor and the other two guys rotate unless one really shows it in practice.

I'd add that the complexion of the Big Ten last year was very different than this year. It's more unsettled this year. Going into the season last year there was strong opinion that after the top two or three teams the rest of conference was flat. As NU fans, we though the Cats had a wide spectrum of possibilities buttressed by strong showings against ranked Indiana and Michigan which were narrow losses.

The league is different, but still flat. I wouldn't put a top third finish as part of NU's possibilities, and top half would be a shocker.

But, NU may be a much more interesting team than last year and more competitive.

 

[torque-cat]

Someone please explain it to me.

The consensus is that next year will be a bust. At that point, CC’s teams will have finished 9th or lower in 6 of his 7 seasons at NU. The excitement re: the new facilities will be old news and there are still strict academic standards that limit the recruiting pool for NU. So why do we think that we will suddenly we will see an uptick in recruiting or a jump in our record?

Are we simply hoping that the trio of Bam Beran, and Kopp are categorically better than trios like Juice, Shurna Crawford, or Law, Lindsay, Pardon? Are we thinking that CC’s new coaching staff will be able to develop young players more effectively than in the past? Maybe eliminating the prohibition of high school players going directly to the NBA evens things out a little bit, i.e., Duke doesn’t have Zion and RJ Barret on the same team.


What’s the thought here?

What's the leap that we are going to take that allows us to start winning significant recruiting wars so that we can compete for a top 7 spot in the Big 10 and get back into the post-season conversation?

1. We have more highly rated recruits on the roster than ever before.
2. Individually they don't need to be better than Shurna, Coble etc... But collectively it provides a potential depth of roster talent that I don't think we've ever had.
3. Facilities may be old news to us, but they still matter to recruits who are taking visits into the future.
4. Given academic restrictions, competitiveness of Big Ten, relative fan support, it will be a fight to make a tourney bid in the near future. Football has been successful, but it has taken winning a huge number of close games in recent years. One down year and people will start asking what's wrong with football, I thought we had arrived etc...

 

[mikewebb68]

I equate this to where Fitz was in football five years ago. After we were poised for what seemed like certain greatness at the end of 2012, we suffered through back-to-back losing seasons. Many people were making the same negative comments about Fitz then that they are making about CC now. But I trust that CC is the right coach, just as I did in Fitz back then. I strongly suspect that my patience will be rewarded-- again.

 

[NUCat320]

The case for optimism is that optimistic people are more likely to be happy. Also, highest rated recruits etc., etc.. The case for optimism almost needs to ignore on-court results from the 2019-20 roster.

Nance was such an anomaly as a recruit, with nba bloodlines but little time spent in the high-major recruit factory. His lack of competitive experience showed last year. Most players who have become stars at NU were productive freshmen — the opportunity was always there, and the minutes were there for the taking. It’s very rare to become a star without a solid freshman year (Hearn did it, Lindsey was star-adjacent as a junior), but it’s also very rare to be 6-10 and athletic and the son of an NBA all star.

Of the incoming freshman, I am most excited to watch Jones. Seems like an inside-outside player with little acclaim — being a bit undersized for the recruited role probably contributed — but high-level competition and success. Seems a lot like Pardon with a J.

 

[Catreporter]

NCAA appearance raised expectations for the program, but BIG competition is ferocious and other schools don't have the academic restrictions, and especially for basketball, that is a BIG disadvantage. CCC looks to be building a solid base of a team hopefully for 2020-1 season. I'm just going to look for talent development this year.

 

[Styre]

I equate this to where Fitz was in football five years ago. After we were poised for what seemed like certain greatness at the end of 2012, we suffered through back-to-back losing seasons.

...after 5 straight bowl games and 6 straight .500+ regular seasons.

For me the case for optimism revolves entirely around recruiting rankings and the hope that the coaching staff can translate that potential into commensurate achievement on the court. I don't expect much this year, but if 2020-21 doesn't show serious improvement then we need to ask serious questions about the future of the program.

 

[JournCat]

1. We have more highly rated recruits on the roster than ever before.
2. Individually they don't need to be better than Shurna, Coble etc... But collectively it provides a potential depth of roster talent that I don't think we've ever had.
3. Facilities may be old news to us, but they still matter to recruits who are taking visits into the future.
4. Given academic restrictions, competitiveness of Big Ten, relative fan support, it will be a fight to make a tourney bid in the near future. Football has been successful, but it has taken winning a huge number of close games in recent years. One down year and people will start asking what's wrong with football, I thought we had arrived etc...

One down year ... people were asking that in Week 4 last year.

Anyway, agreed that we're recruiting better overall than we did before. But we haven't met the expectations I think many of us had when Collins was hired. I originally thought that by now we would have gotten a few more 4-stars out of Chicagoland, guys like Nojel Eastern or Talen Horton-Tucker. (I know that by Rivals rankings, most of our best recruits have come during the Collins era, but those rankings aren't scientific and could be subject to inflation as our program has improved its reputation.) Guys like Kopp, Gaines, and the incoming class could still be great, and I have retained my seat on the Pete Nance bandwagon. But our player development has to get much better. Collins is of course a first-time head coach and deserves some extra time to figure out what the program will be. My uneducated guess is he thought he'd have gotten more ready-made stars by now too.

 

[mikewebb68]

...after 5 straight bowl games and 6 straight .500+ regular seasons.

For me the case for optimism revolves entirely around recruiting rankings and the hope that the coaching staff can translate that potential into commensurate achievement on the court. I don't expect much this year, but if 2020-21 doesn't show serious improvement then we need to ask serious questions about the future of the program.

I will argue that one NCAA tournament at least equals those 5 straight bowl games. But a moot point, since I boldly predict that the only serious question we will be asking after the 2020-21 season is why we ever doubted Dr. Jim and CC in the first place...

 

[NJCat]

most of our best recruits have come during the Collins era, but those rankings aren't scientific and could be subject to inflation as our program has improved its reputation.) .

The number of *s could be subject to inflation. But the absolute rank isn't. A kid ranked 60th is deemed the 60th best, whether he has 3 or 4 *'s. And NU is getting more kids whose absolute ranking is higher.

Whether that plays out on the court is another matter. I'd love to see Shurna v2.0 or Crawford 2.0 or Juice Thompson v2.0, none of them 4* recruits coming in.

 

[7th Cir. Cat]

One down year ... people were asking that in Week 4 last year.

Anyway, agreed that we're recruiting better overall than we did before. But we haven't met the expectations I think many of us had when Collins was hired. I originally thought that by now we would have gotten a few more 4-stars out of Chicagoland, guys like Nojel Eastern or Talen Horton-Tucker. (I know that by Rivals rankings, most of our best recruits have come during the Collins era, but those rankings aren't scientific and could be subject to inflation as our program has improved its reputation.) Guys like Kopp, Gaines, and the incoming class could still be great, and I have retained my seat on the Pete Nance bandwagon. But our player development has to get much better. Collins is of course a first-time head coach and deserves some extra time to figure out what the program will be. My uneducated guess is he thought he'd have gotten more ready-made stars by now too.

This post is spot-on. Because Collins's player development seems "just OK" we need to land more (as you put it) "ready-made stars." I wonder how much of this is a function of Collins coming from Duke. At his old job, he had to do a lot less coaching on fundamentals. Let's face it, Zion and RJ Barrett didn't "need" Coach K to develop them the same way Pete Nance does. That's the one nagging issue that I have with Collins.

I always viewed Carmody as the guy who led us out of the dark ages and then Collins as the guy to make us consistently competitive.

But I'm wondering now if this an an A to B to C type journey. "A" is get competitive so we are not a laughing-stock (Carmody did this); "B" is finally make the tournament (Collins did this); and C is sustained competitiveness (tourney every 3 years or so) and winning local recruiting battles. I will be forever grateful for the tourney, but not sure if Collins is the ultimate answer to "C"

 

[Hungry Jack]

My case for optimism is based on the fact that I am optimistic. Yes, sometimes I despise people and loathe the human condition, but I believe in a better tomorrow. If I didn’t, I might as well be dead. And I’m not ready for that.

And the Cats arent dead either.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

One down year ... people were asking that in Week 4 last year.

Anyway, agreed that we're recruiting better overall than we did before. But we haven't met the expectations I think many of us had when Collins was hired. I originally thought that by now we would have gotten a few more 4-stars out of Chicagoland, guys like Nojel Eastern or Talen Horton-Tucker. (I know that by Rivals rankings, most of our best recruits have come during the Collins era, but those rankings aren't scientific and could be subject to inflation as our program has improved its reputation.) Guys like Kopp, Gaines, and the incoming class could still be great, and I have retained my seat on the Pete Nance bandwagon. But our player development has to get much better. Collins is of course a first-time head coach and deserves some extra time to figure out what the program will be. My uneducated guess is he thought he'd have gotten more ready-made stars by now too.

Why would ready made stars come to NU? Eastern wasn’t coming to NU for a myriad of reasons. THT? Question what happened with Illinois on that one as the kid wanted to go there and had his offer pulled at the last minute.

Big time Kids want to play in electric atmospheres, on a national stage, where they are BMOC and where they actually may fit in with students that are not basketball players. Schools that have a history. A new arena half the size of the average conference arena “filled” with 200 students, a bunch of old guys, and many empty seats isn’t as enticing as many in here make it. Neither is the world class education wowing the top dogs. Not happening. It is not easy at all to recruit to NU in basketball.

So CCC (and any Point C future Coach) will need be a developmental staff first. However, they will need to be a developmental staff that at least can recruit mid tier prospects with an occasional Beran or Bam thrown in there. The problem with BC was he could never recruit mid tier talent. The best players he landed weren’t highly recruited guys for the most part.

 

[DaCat]

My case for optimism is based on the fact that I am optimistic. Yes, sometimes I despise people and loathe the human condition, but I believe in a better tomorrow. If I didn’t, I might as well be dead. And I’m not ready for that.

And the Cats are(n't) dead either.

Life is more fun through an optimistic lens.

 

[IGNORE]

Why would ready made stars come to NU? Eastern wasn’t coming to NU for a myriad of reasons. THT? Question what happened with Illinois on that one as the kid wanted to go there and had his offer pulled at the last minute.

Big time Kids want to play in electric atmospheres, on a national stage, where they are BMOC and where they actually may fit in with students that are not basketball players. Schools that have a history. A new arena half the size of the average conference arena “filled” with 200 students, a bunch of old guys, and many empty seats isn’t as enticing as many in here make it. Neither is the world class education wowing the top dogs. Not happening. It is not easy at all to recruit to NU in basketball.

So CCC (and any Point C future Coach) will need be a developmental staff first. However, they will need to be a developmental staff that at least can recruit mid tier prospects with an occasional Beran or Bam thrown in there. The problem with BC was he could never recruit mid tier talent. The best players he landed weren’t highly recruited guys for the most part.

Only about 60 kids get drafted every year. And those kids cover the frosh through senior plus internationals. So, if you are ranked outside the top 50 in your recruiting class and have a brain then the education should be a point of interest.

A roster full of players ranked between 50 and 100 would be competitive.

 

[7th Cir. Cat]

Why would ready made stars come to NU? Eastern wasn’t coming to NU for a myriad of reasons. THT? Question what happened with Illinois on that one as the kid wanted to go there and had his offer pulled at the last minute.

Big time Kids want to play in electric atmospheres, on a national stage, where they are BMOC and where they actually may fit in with students that are not basketball players. Schools that have a history. A new arena half the size of the average conference arena “filled” with 200 students, a bunch of old guys, and many empty seats isn’t as enticing as many in here make it. Neither is the world class education wowing the top dogs. Not happening. It is not easy at all to recruit to NU in basketball.

Agree with most of what you said, but I think you are forgetting one factor in our favor: proximity to Chicago. I still have hope that one day (even if not under Collins) there will be some top 50-100ish players in Chicago that will want their family and friends to be able to drive to every home game. We just need to land one and I think it changes the perception of the program and makes us a viable option

 

[hdhntr1]

The number of *s could be subject to inflation. But the absolute rank isn't. A kid ranked 60th is deemed the 60th best, whether he has 3 or 4 *'s. And NU is getting more kids whose absolute ranking is higher.

Whether that plays out on the court is another matter. I'd love to see Shurna v2.0 or Crawford 2.0 or Juice Thompson v2.0, none of them 4* recruits coming in.

Then it becomes important that they put together a roster that fits together and fills in the holes

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Only about 60 kids get drafted every year. And those kids cover the frosh through senior plus internationals. So, if you are ranked outside the top 50 in your recruiting class and have a brain then the education should be a point of interest.

A roster full of players ranked between 50 and 100 would be competitive.

Sure would be competitive. Now tell me which of those recruits ranked 50-100 don’t think they have a shot at the NBA?

You of all people should know high level recruits rarely think of basketball as a means to an education. Even if they aren’t drafted they likely will play professionally overseas.

 

[Purple Pile Driver]

Agree with most of what you said, but I think you are forgetting one factor in our favor: proximity to Chicago. I still have hope that one day (even if not under Collins) there will be some top 50-100ish players in Chicago that will want their family and friends to be able to drive to every home game. We just need to land one and I think it changes the perception of the program and makes us a viable option

Well we have two in the class of 2021 to test this theory on. Program defining kids. I hope we can land one of them, but am not holding my breath.

 

[IGNORE]

Sure would be competitive. Now tell me which of those recruits ranked 50-100 don’t think they have a shot at the NBA?

You of all people should know high level recruits rarely think of basketball as a means to an education. Even if they aren’t drafted they likely will play professionally overseas.

The ones smart enough to get in know they might or might not and need a valuable plan B.

 

[mikewebb68]

Only about 60 kids get drafted every year. And those kids cover the frosh through senior plus internationals. So, if you are ranked outside the top 50 in your recruiting class and have a brain then the education should be a point of interest.

A roster full of players ranked between 50 and 100 would be competitive.

Wow, we don't agree much, but this is really on point! Illinois is struggling with this a bit now as they have shot for the moon going after top-50 recruits, and have obtained one each in the 18 and 19 cycles, but have not gotten any 50-100 players and only 2 100-200 players in the 18-20 classes. Those two top-50s have almost no chance of staying 4 years, and, with other attrition, they appear to be having an annual problem of filling up their scholarship spots. Those 50-100, or even 100-200, players provide the 4- year stability that a program needs..

 

[mikewebb68]

Well we have two in the class of 2021 to test this theory on. Program defining kids. I hope we can land one of them, but am not holding my breath.

I wouldn't either, Baldwin might be an exception to the rule since there is more at risk if he gets caught with his dad being a coach, but at the 1-50 level, there are a lot of shennanigans going on that I just presume we'd not get involved with. And it is not just monetary stuff; you can look at the recent example of Illinois' recruitment of THT and Ayo, that left such a bad taste in Brad Underwood's mouth that he backed off the CPL kids entirely for awhile...

 

[Sec_112]

... So why do we think that we will suddenly we will see an uptick in recruiting or a jump in our record? ...

Well, first of all, for the class of '20, we've already seem a bump with Bamisile. I agree with you that I don't know how it happened, but ... oh well, there it is. So yes, it can be done. How? Don't ask me. But it's been done.

... I'm just wondering what's going to change in the short-term to make you think that we have the right pieces in place. It sounds like most people believe that the incoming group of players is a cut above in raw talent than what we're used to seeing so we should give them time. With the exception of Bam, I'm not sure that's the case.

Does anybody really want to make a final judgement on this thing based on a foundation of four freshman seasons, four guys who haven't played 30 seconds of college basketball and a class of 2020 that is NOWHERE near complete. There's at least one more schollie available in that class.

I'm not saying Collins shouldn't be scrutinized. You'd be a fool to ignore his weaknesses. I'm not sure recruiting isn't one of them. Just because a guy is top-100 doesn't mean he's a B10 player.

But it's soooooooo early to come to a final conclusion on the 10 guys I outlined above.

With all the negatives that are regularly rattled off, there's not only an argument for optimism. There's recent historical evidence. But I know **poof**, we ignore that.

Maybe it's just me, but I'd like to see the foundation of CC's true second group get beyond their sophomore year before I toss optimism out the window.

 

[7th Cir. Cat]

I actually don't think Collins should be fired right now. But if in year 7 we are projected to be worse than we were in Year 6, I was simply asking why people are optimistic that he will right the ship, in your case it sounds like you think that Bam is a special recruit, and that Collins will get more players like him in that class. Fair enough.

 

[IGNORE]

I actually don't think Collins should be fired right now. But if in year 7 we are projected to be worse than we were in Year 6, I was simply asking why people are optimistic that he will right the ship, in your case it sounds like you think that Bam is a special recruit, and that Collins will get more players like him in that class. Fair enough.

So not to start another particular battle, I'm going to carefully phrase this question: many folks here question the amount of time the admin allowed prior coaches to continue without positive results. So, since 13 years is too many, what would be an appropriate amount of time for ALL future coaches?